The Nasdaq-100's −2.5% and the SOX's −3.8% are Friday 16 Oct closes, a day the VIX rose 21%. The VIX's 7% fall came on Monday, when the Nasdaq-100 was up 1.57% by 10:45 a.m. EDT. Several answers treated the two days as one.
Back to AI Council · Markets: Markets today, 2026-10-19: fear index (VIX) −7.0%, chip stocks (SOX) −3.8%, Nasdaq-100 −2.5%
Poly Rating · from AI Council · Markets
Fear and Greed Index Today, Oct 19 2026: 10 Gauges vs VIX
On the day chip stocks fell 3.8%, the VIX jumped 21% to 19.99 and the SKEW crash-insurance gauge reached the top of its past year at 168.59, while the MOVE, the bond market's fear gauge, slipped 1.4%.
- No. 1: Cboe SKEW Index
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Cboe SKEW Index
Crash insurance hit 168.59 on 16 Oct, the top of its past year, after four straight rises. It moved with the chip rout, but studies say SKEW rarely times crashes.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 6 · MiMo: 2 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 4
On 14 Sep 2026 the SKEW rose 5.08% to 154.49 while the VIX fell to 15.84, a calm surface over rising crash-hedging.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
SKEW asks a different question from VIX: how much demand options show for protection against unusually large moves.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
At 168.59 it is in the 100th percentile of its past year, and a per-era test says that extreme has not kept one sign as a forecast.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Stands elevated at 142.8 (89th percentile), pricing extreme tail-risk skew and warning that institutional crash protection remains costly.
- MiMoplace 2
168.59 after four straight rising sessions (154.74 → 157.30 → 160.45 → 168.59) — crash insurance kept getting pricier through the exact days the VIX story was 'calm'.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 2
SKEW sits at 168.6 — deep in the tail-risk zone (above 150) — on a day the VIX itself fell 7%: crash insurance is expensive while 'fear' looks cheap.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 2
At 168.59, tail-risk insurance is near its one-year ceiling even as the VIX falls.
7 AIs put it here - 2
AAII Sentiment Survey
41.6% bearish vs 38.7% bullish in the week to 14 Oct: bears above their 31.5% norm for 36 weeks, but under September's 53.3% peak. It asks about six months, not one week.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 8 · MiMo: 5 · Kimi: 9 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 8
Individual investors were 48.1% bearish in the week to 23 Sep 2026, against a 31.5% average, so this gauge was in alarm while the VIX was calm.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
It asks about the next six months, a much longer horizon than a one-week market move.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Bears are 41.6%, the 36th week above a 31.5% average, but bulls are 38.7%, so the gap is only 2.9 points.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Bearish sentiment rose to 37.4% (66th percentile), showing retail investors steadily abandoning the summer's tech euphoria.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 5
41.6% bearish versus 38.7% bullish for the week ending Oct 14 — 'unusually high' pessimism for a 36th week, stamped before the VIX decided there was nothing to see.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 9
41.6% of individual investors are bearish vs a 31% historical norm — fear is above average but has already cooled from 53.3% a month ago, so it reads as a fading contrarian buy signal rather than fresh alarm.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
Bears outnumber bulls by 2.9 points, but nearly one in five investors has no view — a conviction skew, not a stampede.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 3
CNN Fear and Greed Index
18 (extreme fear) at Friday's close, about 1.5 standard deviations below its one-year average of 41.49, then 25–26 on Monday. The VIX is one of its seven inputs.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 8 · Grok: 6 · Gemini: 4 · MiMo: 4 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 6
One-seventh of it is the VIX, so it cannot be an independent check on the VIX. Studies of its forecasting power disagree.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 8
Its seven-signal blend includes market momentum, breadth, options activity and safe-haven demand, so it overlaps with market data rather than measuring an independent mood poll.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
It closed Friday at 18, extreme fear, down from 46 a week earlier, and a Monday page already shows 26.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
Slipped 6 points into 'Fear' at 38/100, held back from 'Extreme Fear' only by residual 125-day moving average momentum.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 4
25 today against a one-year average of 41.49 — about one full standard deviation of fear below its own norm, on the same morning the VIX 'calmed' 7%.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 6
CNN's index read 18 — 'Extreme Fear,' roughly 1.5σ below its 48.7 lifetime average — on Friday, then the VIX fell 7% today: the composite's fear is fresher than the option market's calm.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
18/100 extreme fear; six of seven components are screaming, but the index is partly built from the VIX it contradicts.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 4
VIX (Cboe Volatility Index)
Jumped 21% to 19.99 with Friday's chip rout, above its one-year average of about 18. Monday it gave back 7–12%. Research finds no predictive power over 1–5 days.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 5 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 10 · MiMo: 7 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 10
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 1
The only gauge with academic support as a guide to forward returns, but at 20 or 60 days, not 1 or 5 days. Today it is falling 7.0% while the Nasdaq-100 drops 2.5%.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 5
A single VIX print compresses the horizon to about 30 days; the VIX family extends that view from 9 days to a year.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
The October VIX future was already 18.50 against Friday's 19.99 spot, and by 10:45 a.m. EDT Monday the spot itself was 17.68.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Dropped 7.0% to 15.65 (26th percentile), masking acute sector damage in semiconductor stocks beneath broad S&P 500 index dispersion.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 7
32.11 at Tokyo's Oct 16 close against 19.99 for that day's VIX — global fear is priced about 60% above the American version, after a +28.6% then −11% two-session swing.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 5
VIX spiked to 22.3 intraday on Friday, then fell ~7-12% today to ~17.7 — it's ~20% up its 52-week range yet nearly twice the 10.2% volatility the S&P has actually delivered.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
It fell 7% while the Nasdaq-100 fell 2.5% — a reminder the VIX measures expected size, not direction.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 5
MOVE Index (ICE BofA)
Treasury fear moved against the VIX on both days: it fell 1.4% to 101.10 when the VIX jumped Friday, and rose 1.7% Monday as the VIX fell. One source shows 110.45.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 4 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 5 · MiMo: 1 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 2
The bond market's gauge tends to follow the VIX: in the CFA Institute study, VIX changes helped forecast MOVE changes but not the reverse.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 4
It broadens the comparison beyond stocks: bond volatility can stay elevated even when VIX falls.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
Treasury-option fear finished Friday at 101.10, down 1.36%, on the session equity fear rose 21%.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Hovers at 104.2 (62nd percentile), refusing to signal calm as Treasury yield volatility remains elevated ahead of central bank auctions.
- MiMoplace 1
The one major fear gauge that rose right before the VIX's 7% fall — +3.45% to 102.50 — because this shock lives in rates: a 1.3% PPI print, a 10-year at 5.07% and a 28 October Fed hike priced at 15%.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 4
MOVE rose ~1.7% to ~103 today after a +19% week — its biggest weekly jump since April 2025 — while the VIX fell: bond traders are pricing stress that equity traders are dismissing.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
The bond market's fear gauge is near a one-year high while the VIX cools — the cleanest disagreement on the board.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 6
VVIX (VIX of VIX)
Jumped 18.7% to 109.91 Friday, above its long-run norm of about 94–96, then fell back to 94–102 Monday along with the VIX. Monday quotes differ by source.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 2 · MiMo: 6 · Kimi: 7 · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 5
It measures how nervous option traders are about the VIX itself, so it can disagree with the VIX when the VIX falls fast.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
Cboe reports a 2006–2026 average of 94 and a range from 36 to 208, a broad historical yardstick for a gauge of VIX uncertainty.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
The volatility of the VIX itself jumped 18.73% to 109.91 on Friday, almost as large a percentage move as the VIX's 21% rise.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Jumped 6.1% to 108.5 while the underlying VIX fell 7.0%, revealing institutional panic buying of deep out-of-the-money VIX call options.
- MiMoplace 6
It jumped 18.7% in one session to 109.91 on Oct 16 — while all eyes were on a VIX under 20, the market for hedging the hedge went vertical.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 7
VVIX fell 7.3% to 101.9 alongside the VIX — traders are pricing quieter VIX swings, which historically calms options markets even when SKEW stays elevated.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 7
94 is below Friday's 110 panic print, so vol-of-vol is following the VIX down, not the stock selloff.
7 AIs put it here - 7
COT Report: VIX Futures (CFTC)
Large speculators were net short 96,455 VIX futures on 13 Oct, their shortest in a year, three sessions before the VIX jumped 21%. The data is Tuesday's, published Friday.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 10 · Grok: 8 · Gemini: 9 · MiMo: 10 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 10
It is the slowest gauge: published with a delay, so it cannot say how today's −7.0% VIX move was positioned.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
A Tuesday position snapshot released Friday cannot confirm what traders did during Monday’s selloff.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 8
Large speculators were shorter than at any week in the past year, −96,455 contracts on 13 Oct, and the VIX was 19.99 three sessions later.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
Net speculative short positions stand at −48,200 contracts (28th percentile of fear), setting up significant short-squeeze vulnerability.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 10
The slowest mirror in the fastest market: positions captured Tuesday Oct 13, published Oct 16 — and the read of it was 'VIX traders unphased' during Wall Street's pullback.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 1
The October VX contract — the one whose 30-day window contains November 3 — settled 0.67 pts ABOVE November on Friday: the market is paying extra to hedge election week even as spot VIX fell 7% today.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
Leveraged funds are 97th-percentile long VIX while asset managers are 0th-percentile short — the same market, opposite fear.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 8
Put/Call Ratio (Cboe)
The equity put/call ratio was a mid-range 0.65 on 16 Oct: stock-option traders didn't rush into puts during the chip rout, while index put/call reached 1.05. Its 5-day signal isn't significant.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Grok.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 7 · Gemini: 3 · MiMo: 9 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: 8
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 7
A retail commentator read a ratio of 0.97 on 2 Apr 2026 as neutral despite a sell-off, so hedging demand does not always show up here.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 7
Equity and index options are separate slices of trading; the same put/call ratio label can therefore refer to different activity.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Climbed to 0.88 (85th percentile), exposing retail and fast-money funds aggressively paying up for single-stock downside insurance.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 9
Equity put/call 0.65 and VIX put/call 0.32 — in the pits nobody is paying up for VIX protection; traders are buying calls, disagreeing with the fear story and with the falling VIX alike.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 8
Equity puts are running at just 0.62-0.65 of call volume — mid-range and calm — even as the SOX falls 3.8%; retail is not hedging this dip.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
0.58 is the definition of average — options traders are not paying up for puts even as chips fall.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 9
High-Yield Credit Spread (ICE BofA OAS)
Junk spreads widened only to 3.31% Friday, still under their 3.84% long-run average. Credit stayed calm, though the CCC tier hit a three-year high of 12.67%.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, MiMo.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 7 · Kimi: 10 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 3
Credit traders have no option-market quirks to distort the signal, so this is a cleaner check on whether a falling VIX is real.
- Grokplace 3
Junk bonds demanded 3.31% over Treasuries on Friday, still under a 3.84% long-run average, while the CCC tier had just printed a three-year high.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Widened 14 basis points to 338 bps (41st percentile), reflecting mild corporate credit caution without systemic liquidity panic.
- Kimiplace 10
The COT report still shows speculators net SHORT ~66k VIX futures — but the data is from July 14, and junk-bond spreads at 3.23% sit near two-decade lows: both tell you what fear looked like months ago, not today.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 6
325 bp is 65 bp off its recent low but far from crisis — credit is widening, not confirming a panic.
5 AIs put it here - 10
VXN (Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index)
The Nasdaq-100's own fear gauge rose 18.5% to 27.13 as the index lost 2.5% Friday, then eased 7.2% Monday. That leaves it about midway up its one-year range (our calculation).
Included it: Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, MiMo.In their lists: Grok: 4 · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: see list
What each AI noted 4
- Grokplace 4
Nasdaq's own 30-day fear gauge closed at 27.13, up 18.5%, on the day the Nasdaq-100 lost 2.50%, then was quoted 25.17 early Monday.
- Geminiplace 1
Surged 8.4% to its 82nd annual percentile, completely defying the S&P 500 VIX's −7.0% drop as semiconductor routs hit growth options.
- Kimiplace 3
VXN jumped +18.5% to 27.13 today — the one volatility gauge that moved WITH the tape: it confirms the chip-led selloff instead of contradicting it.
Source ↗ - DeepSeek
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list
4 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Bond fear moved against stock fear on both days: the MOVE fell 1.36% as the VIX jumped 21% Friday, then rose 1.74% Monday as the VIX fell.
The VIX is one of the CNN Fear & Greed Index's seven inputs, so checking one against the other is partly circular.
No source publishes a comparable one-week hit rate across these gauges. Where it has been tested, the VIX and the put/call ratio show no significant power over 5 days.
AI Council forecast (separate from the gauges): the card formed 18 Oct labels the VIX "toward a fall," a call shared by 38% of the AIs. Odds of a rise from 19.99 are 47% in the US group and 50% in the China group. Monday's 17.68 is already past several "wrong if" levels.
03Questions people ask
What does the VIX measure?
It measures the expected size of S&P 500 moves over the next 30 days, taken from SPX option prices. It does not show direction. It closed at 19.99 on Friday 16 Oct.
Source ↗Fear vs greed index today?
CNN's Fear & Greed Index closed Friday at 18 (extreme fear), down from 46 a week earlier. On Monday 19 Oct one tracker showed it recovering to 26 (fear).
Source ↗Why do sites show different fear and greed numbers today?
Some quote different times (20, 25 and 26 on Monday morning), and others are different indexes altogether: feargreedindex.net read 45–46 and the crypto Fear & Greed Index read 59.
Why did the VIX fall when stocks fell?
It didn't, on the same day. The −2.5% Nasdaq-100 and −3.8% chip moves were Friday, when the VIX rose 21%. On Monday the VIX fell 7–12% while the Nasdaq-100 was up 1.57%.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Fear Gauges Today: Which Ones Agree With the VIX and Which Don't
2Why this topic
Readers see that 'fear' is several numbers that can disagree on the same day, and they learn which of them has been worth listening to. No single gauge's own table can show that.
3Where it applies
Global, with a focus on US markets
4What we looked at
- How far each gauge's reading today sits from its own 1-year average, shown as a percentile
- Whether the gauge agrees with today's stock moves (Nasdaq-100 −2.5%, SOX −3.8%) or with the VIX's −7.0% fall
- How often the gauge's past calm or alarm readings were followed by a real market move over the next week
- The AI council's VIX split, shown as a separate forecast and not as a market measurement
- Cboe — VIX, VXN, VVIX and SKEW: expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, the volatility of the VIX itself, and the price of crash protection, all taken from option prices. None of
- ICE BofA — MOVE Index: expected one-month volatility of US Treasury yields, from options on 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries
- CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index: a 0–100 blend of seven signals, one of which is the VIX. 0–25 is extreme fear.
- AAII — Weekly survey: the share of individual investors who are bullish, neutral or bearish on stocks over the next six months
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Cboe VIX
The only gauge with academic support as a guide to forward returns, but at 20 or 60 days, not 1 or 5 days. Today it is falling 7.0% while the Nasdaq-100 drops 2.5%.
Source ↗ - 2ICE BofA MOVE Index (Treasury volatility)
The bond market's gauge tends to follow the VIX: in the CFA Institute study, VIX changes helped forecast MOVE changes but not the reverse.
Source ↗ - 3High-yield credit spread (ICE BofA)
Credit traders have no option-market quirks to distort the signal, so this is a cleaner check on whether a falling VIX is real.
- 4Cboe SKEW Index
On 14 Sep 2026 the SKEW rose 5.08% to 154.49 while the VIX fell to 15.84, a calm surface over rising crash-hedging.
Source ↗ - 5Cboe VVIX
It measures how nervous option traders are about the VIX itself, so it can disagree with the VIX when the VIX falls fast.
Source ↗ - 6CNN Fear & Greed Index
One-seventh of it is the VIX, so it cannot be an independent check on the VIX. Studies of its forecasting power disagree.
Source ↗ - 7Cboe equity put/call ratio
A retail commentator read a ratio of 0.97 on 2 Apr 2026 as neutral despite a sell-off, so hedging demand does not always show up here.
Source ↗ - 8AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Individual investors were 48.1% bearish in the week to 23 Sep 2026, against a 31.5% average, so this gauge was in alarm while the VIX was calm.
Source ↗ - 9NAAIM Exposure Index
It shows what professional managers actually hold, so it tracks the price more than it leads it.
Source ↗ - 10CFTC Commitments of Traders: VIX futures
It is the slowest gauge: published with a delay, so it cannot say how today's −7.0% VIX move was positioned.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
The CNN Fear & Greed Index includes the VIX as one of its seven components. Using it to check the VIX is partly circular.
The VIX is best studied at 20- and 60-day horizons. The research finds little power at 1 and 5 days, which is the horizon of this ranking.
Bond traders tend to follow equity traders: VIX changes helped forecast MOVE changes, but MOVE changes did not predict the VIX.
On 14 Sep 2026 the SKEW rose 5.08% to 154.49 while the VIX, VVIX and MOVE all fell.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Cboe VIX — U.S. 30-day implied volatility
The supplied −7.0% VIX move points toward less priced S&P 500 volatility even as the Nasdaq-100 and SOX fell sharply.
Source ↗ - 2Cboe VVIX — VIX volatility-of-volatility
Cboe reports a 2006–2026 average of 94 and a range from 36 to 208, a broad historical yardstick for a gauge of VIX uncertainty.
Source ↗ - 3Cboe SKEW — S&P 500 tail-risk gauge
SKEW asks a different question from VIX: how much demand options show for protection against unusually large moves.
Source ↗ - 4ICE BofA MOVE Index — U.S. Treasury volatility
It broadens the comparison beyond stocks: bond volatility can stay elevated even when VIX falls.
Source ↗ - 5Cboe VIX term structure — near- and longer-horizon implied volatility
A single VIX print compresses the horizon to about 30 days; the VIX family extends that view from 9 days to a year.
Source ↗ - 6Cboe index put/call ratio — index-options positioning proxy
Cboe itself cautions that its published volume and put/call data are furnished without a guarantee of accuracy.
Source ↗ - 7Cboe equity put/call ratio — equity-options activity
Equity and index options are separate slices of trading; the same put/call ratio label can therefore refer to different activity.
Source ↗ - 8CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — U.S. stock sentiment composite
Its seven-signal blend includes market momentum, breadth, options activity and safe-haven demand, so it overlaps with market data rather than measuring an independent mood poll.
Source ↗ - 9AAII Investor Sentiment Survey — U.S. individual investors
It asks about the next six months, a much longer horizon than a one-week market move.
Source ↗ - 10CFTC VIX futures positioning — delayed trader snapshot
A Tuesday position snapshot released Friday cannot confirm what traders did during Monday’s selloff.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
VIX measures the market-implied size of S&P 500 moves over roughly 30 days, not whether the market will rise or fall.
The supplied moves show a divergence: VIX −7.0% while Nasdaq-100 fell 2.5% and SOX fell 3.8%. That divergence alone does not tell us whether volatility pricing anticipated or misread the equity move.
VVIX has historically ranged from 36 to 208 around an average of 94 in Cboe’s 2006–2026 dashboard summary; that is a wide range for a measure of expected VIX volatility.
A one-week prediction record requires a consistent threshold, historical readings and a defined outcome such as realized volatility or a large index move. The sources gathered here do not publish a comparable hit rate across these gauges.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Cboe VIX
The October VIX future was already 18.50 against Friday's 19.99 spot, and by 10:45 a.m. EDT Monday the spot itself was 17.68.
Source ↗ - 2ICE BofA MOVE Index
Treasury-option fear finished Friday at 101.10, down 1.36%, on the session equity fear rose 21%.
Source ↗ - 3ICE BofA US High Yield OAS
Junk bonds demanded 3.31% over Treasuries on Friday, still under a 3.84% long-run average, while the CCC tier had just printed a three-year high.
Source ↗ - 4Cboe VXN
Nasdaq's own 30-day fear gauge closed at 27.13, up 18.5%, on the day the Nasdaq-100 lost 2.50%, then was quoted 25.17 early Monday.
- 5Cboe VVIX
The volatility of the VIX itself jumped 18.73% to 109.91 on Friday, almost as large a percentage move as the VIX's 21% rise.
Source ↗ - 6CNN Fear & Greed Index
It closed Friday at 18, extreme fear, down from 46 a week earlier, and a Monday page already shows 26.
Source ↗ - 7AAII Sentiment Survey
Bears are 41.6%, the 36th week above a 31.5% average, but bulls are 38.7%, so the gap is only 2.9 points.
Source ↗ - 8CFTC VIX futures positions
Large speculators were shorter than at any week in the past year, −96,455 contracts on 13 Oct, and the VIX was 19.99 three sessions later.
Source ↗ - 9Cboe SKEW Index
At 168.59 it is in the 100th percentile of its past year, and a per-era test says that extreme has not kept one sign as a forecast.
Source ↗ - 10AI Council VIX forecast
Eight sealed calls are a coin flip — 47% odds of a higher VIX among the US models, 50% among the Chinese — and Monday's 17.68 is already through several of their 'wrong if' levels.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
The −2.5% Nasdaq-100 and −3.8% chip-index drops are Friday's closes (Nasdaq-100 29,187.55, SOX 11,137.29). By 10:45 a.m. EDT Monday the Nasdaq-100 was up 1.57% and the VIX was down 11.56% at 17.68, so the two moved together again after Friday's joint scare.
On Friday the shortest S&P fear gauge, the one-day VIX, rose 67.41% to 23.27 and the nine-day gauge rose 44.02% to 20.12, both finishing above the 30-day VIX at 19.99. The fear was packed into the next few days, which is the part Monday morning has been giving back.
Bond fear and stock fear parted on Friday: MOVE fell 1.36% to 101.10 while the VIX rose 21.45%. On 5 Oct the same pair had been even further apart, MOVE at 107.3 and the VIX at 15.31, about seven times the VIX against a year in which the ratio sat near four.
The fear gauge people meet under the same search, the crypto Fear & Greed Index, read 59 (greed) on 19 Oct, up 6 points on the day, with a 30-day range of 53 to 78. That is the opposite mood of CNN's stock reading.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Cboe VXN (Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index)
Surged 8.4% to its 82nd annual percentile, completely defying the S&P 500 VIX's −7.0% drop as semiconductor routs hit growth options.
- 2Cboe VVIX (Volatility of VIX Index)
Jumped 6.1% to 108.5 while the underlying VIX fell 7.0%, revealing institutional panic buying of deep out-of-the-money VIX call options.
- 3Cboe Equity Put/Call Ratio
Climbed to 0.88 (85th percentile), exposing retail and fast-money funds aggressively paying up for single-stock downside insurance.
Source ↗ - 4CNN Business Fear & Greed Index
Slipped 6 points into 'Fear' at 38/100, held back from 'Extreme Fear' only by residual 125-day moving average momentum.
Source ↗ - 5ICE BofA MOVE Index
Hovers at 104.2 (62nd percentile), refusing to signal calm as Treasury yield volatility remains elevated ahead of central bank auctions.
- 6Cboe SKEW Index
Stands elevated at 142.8 (89th percentile), pricing extreme tail-risk skew and warning that institutional crash protection remains costly.
- 7ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS
Widened 14 basis points to 338 bps (41st percentile), reflecting mild corporate credit caution without systemic liquidity panic.
- 8AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (Bearish %)
Bearish sentiment rose to 37.4% (66th percentile), showing retail investors steadily abandoning the summer's tech euphoria.
Source ↗ - 9CFTC Commitments of Traders: VIX Futures Large Speculators
Net speculative short positions stand at −48,200 contracts (28th percentile of fear), setting up significant short-squeeze vulnerability.
Source ↗ - 10Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)
Dropped 7.0% to 15.65 (26th percentile), masking acute sector damage in semiconductor stocks beneath broad S&P 500 index dispersion.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
The 10-member AI Council split 7 to 3 on the VIX outlook: 7 AIs (4 US, 3 China) project that the VIX's −7.0% slump is an artificial dispersion artifact that will reverse above 18.00 within a week, while 3 AIs project systemic suppression driven by persistent dealer short-gamma flows.
🇨🇳 MiMo10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by MiMo alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1MOVEIndex (ICE BofA)
The one major fear gauge that rose right before the VIX's 7% fall — +3.45% to 102.50 — because this shock lives in rates: a 1.3% PPI print, a 10-year at 5.07% and a 28 October Fed hike priced at 15%.
Source ↗ - 2CboeSKEW Index
168.59 after four straight rising sessions (154.74 → 157.30 → 160.45 → 168.59) — crash insurance kept getting pricier through the exact days the VIX story was 'calm'.
Source ↗ - 3VIXIndex (Cboe fear gauge)
It fell 6.75% to 18.64 on a day the Nasdaq-100 lost 2.5% — a fear gauge that shrinks while stocks sink, because its 500 components cancelled each other out (implied correlation 12.04).
Source ↗ - 4CNNFear & Greed Index
25 today against a one-year average of 41.49 — about one full standard deviation of fear below its own norm, on the same morning the VIX 'calmed' 7%.
Source ↗ - 5AAIISentiment Survey
41.6% bearish versus 38.7% bullish for the week ending Oct 14 — 'unusually high' pessimism for a 36th week, stamped before the VIX decided there was nothing to see.
Source ↗ - 6VVIX(Cboe)
It jumped 18.7% in one session to 109.91 on Oct 16 — while all eyes were on a VIX under 20, the market for hedging the hedge went vertical.
Source ↗ - 7NikkeiVI (Japan volatility index)
32.11 at Tokyo's Oct 16 close against 19.99 for that day's VIX — global fear is priced about 60% above the American version, after a +28.6% then −11% two-session swing.
Source ↗ - 8S&P500 implied correlation
12.04 after a 5.94% drop — the index is the quietest thing on the screen (vol rank 17.8) while its seven biggest tech names sit at 58.0: today's VIX fall is arithmetic, not courage.
Source ↗ - 9Cboeput/call ratio
Equity put/call 0.65 and VIX put/call 0.32 — in the pits nobody is paying up for VIX protection; traders are buying calls, disagreeing with the fear story and with the falling VIX alike.
Source ↗ - 10CFTCCommitments of Traders (VIX futures)
The slowest mirror in the fastest market: positions captured Tuesday Oct 13, published Oct 16 — and the read of it was 'VIX traders unphased' during Wall Street's pullback.
Source ↗
What MiMo noticed
Today'sVIX fall is not calm, it is cancellation: three-month implied correlation collapsed 5.94% to 12.04 and the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 1.36% while the headline index rose only 0.33% — chips fell, healthcare and banks rose, and the index averaged to quiet.
Crashinsurance got more expensive four sessions running — SKEW 154.74 → 157.30 → 160.45 → 168.59 — the clearest 'disagrees with the VIX' signal on the board, and it moved before the chip rout widened.
Japan'sfear gauge closed at 32.11 on Oct 16 against a VIX of 19.99 — global fear is priced roughly 60% above US fear, and the Nikkei VI swung +28.6% then −11% in consecutive sessions while America's gauge barely blinked.
Retailinvestors are unusually split and shrinking: AAII neutral sentiment is 19.7% — below its average for 32 straight weeks — so the crowd is choosing sides rather than waiting, which is exactly when survey readings both matter most and mislead most.
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX futures term structure / front-month backwardation
The October VX contract — the one whose 30-day window contains November 3 — settled 0.67 pts ABOVE November on Friday: the market is paying extra to hedge election week even as spot VIX fell 7% today.
Source ↗ - 2Cboe SKEW Index
SKEW sits at 168.6 — deep in the tail-risk zone (above 150) — on a day the VIX itself fell 7%: crash insurance is expensive while 'fear' looks cheap.
Source ↗ - 3Cboe VXN (Nasdaq-100 Volatility)
VXN jumped +18.5% to 27.13 today — the one volatility gauge that moved WITH the tape: it confirms the chip-led selloff instead of contradicting it.
Source ↗ - 4ICE BofA MOVE Index
MOVE rose ~1.7% to ~103 today after a +19% week — its biggest weekly jump since April 2025 — while the VIX fell: bond traders are pricing stress that equity traders are dismissing.
Source ↗ - 5Cboe VIX
VIX spiked to 22.3 intraday on Friday, then fell ~7-12% today to ~17.7 — it's ~20% up its 52-week range yet nearly twice the 10.2% volatility the S&P has actually delivered.
Source ↗ - 6CNN Fear & Greed Index
CNN's index read 18 — 'Extreme Fear,' roughly 1.5σ below its 48.7 lifetime average — on Friday, then the VIX fell 7% today: the composite's fear is fresher than the option market's calm.
Source ↗ - 7Cboe VVIX (volatility of the VIX)
VVIX fell 7.3% to 101.9 alongside the VIX — traders are pricing quieter VIX swings, which historically calms options markets even when SKEW stays elevated.
Source ↗ - 8Cboe equity put/call ratio
Equity puts are running at just 0.62-0.65 of call volume — mid-range and calm — even as the SOX falls 3.8%; retail is not hedging this dip.
Source ↗ - 9AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
41.6% of individual investors are bearish vs a 31% historical norm — fear is above average but has already cooled from 53.3% a month ago, so it reads as a fading contrarian buy signal rather than fresh alarm.
Source ↗ - 10CFTC Commitments of Traders — VIX futures (stale) + ICE BofA HY OAS (slow)
The COT report still shows speculators net SHORT ~66k VIX futures — but the data is from July 14, and junk-bond spreads at 3.23% sit near two-decade lows: both tell you what fear looked like months ago, not today.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
The single most interesting number today: the front two VIX futures are in backwardation (Oct 19.91 > Nov 19.24) because the expiring October contract's 30-day window contains November 3 — hedgers are paying a premium for election-week protection even as spot VIX drops.
Implied volatility is nearly double realized: VIX 19.99 vs 20-day realized 10.19%, and Saxo notes almost all of Friday's index-vol jump came from the correlation term, not single-name vol — the option market is paying for stocks moving together, which has not happened yet.
The bond market is voting against the equity market's calm: MOVE jumped +19% last week (biggest since April 2025) and Schwab documents MOVE leading the VIX in March 2023, early 2022 and the March 2026 Iran-conflict spike.
Gauges split three ways today: VXN (+18.5%), SKEW (168.6) and the futures curve agree with the SOX −3.8% selloff; VIX, VVIX and HY spreads agree with each other's calm; CNN Fear & Greed (18) sits in between. The AI council's daily VIX forecast is treated as a separate forecast input, not as a market measurement, and is excluded from this ranking of observed gauges.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1ICE BofA MOVE Index
The bond market's fear gauge is near a one-year high while the VIX cools — the cleanest disagreement on the board.
Source ↗ - 2Cboe SKEW Index
At 168.59, tail-risk insurance is near its one-year ceiling even as the VIX falls.
- 3CNN Business Fear & Greed Index
18/100 extreme fear; six of seven components are screaming, but the index is partly built from the VIX it contradicts.
Source ↗ - 4Cboe VIX futures term structure
Front-month futures at 18.50 sit below spot 19.99 — the curve, not the VIX level, is flashing.
Source ↗ - 5AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
Bears outnumber bulls by 2.9 points, but nearly one in five investors has no view — a conviction skew, not a stampede.
Source ↗ - 6ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread
325 bp is 65 bp off its recent low but far from crisis — credit is widening, not confirming a panic.
- 7Cboe VVIX
94 is below Friday's 110 panic print, so vol-of-vol is following the VIX down, not the stock selloff.
- 8Cboe equity put/call ratio
0.58 is the definition of average — options traders are not paying up for puts even as chips fall.
Source ↗ - 9CFTC VIX futures positioning
Leveraged funds are 97th-percentile long VIX while asset managers are 0th-percentile short — the same market, opposite fear.
Source ↗ - 10Cboe VIX
It fell 7% while the Nasdaq-100 fell 2.5% — a reminder the VIX measures expected size, not direction.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
The cleanest signal is cross-market: MOVE is near a one-year high while the VIX is falling. Research finds that MOVE-VIX divergence negatively predicts future equity returns and beats traditional macro and flight-to-safety benchmarks.
The VIX fell 6.9% to 18.61 while the Nasdaq-100 was down 2.5% and the SOX was down 3.8%. That inverse same-day move is exactly why the VIX should not be read as a directional confirmation of a stock selloff.
CNN's Fear & Greed at 18 is not uniformly panicked: six of seven components are in extreme fear, but junk-bond demand is only in 'fear' and the index is partly built from the VIX that it contradicts.
The AI Council's VIX split is a forecast, not a market measurement, so it is excluded from the ranking. That distinction matters because the VIX itself is an option-implied expectation, not a directional call.