The S&P's implied-minus-realized gap is about 8.4–9.5 points, in the 86th–89th percentile of its past year. The VIX level is normal; what is unusual is how quiet stocks actually are.
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Is the VIX Too Low? 10 Fear Gauges vs Real Swings, Oct… · 9 places
The VIX sits near 18.4 while the S&P 500 has actually swung only about 9–10% over the past month, so options charge roughly double for protection, while oil's fear gauge runs near 60.
- No. 1: US 10-year Treasury yield (MOVE index)
- 9 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
US 10-year Treasury yield (MOVE index)
Bond fear stays high: MOVE near 102 sits in the 92nd–94th percentile of its range, against 88 realized rate volatility, while the VIX sits near its own average.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 2 · Meta: 7 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 3 · Kimi: 4 · Wenxin: 6
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 4
MOVE has sat in a 99–102 band at the 92nd–94th percentile of its range while the 10-year hit 5.33% after CPI, so rate fear is high but unchanged.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
Bond-market fear is running at a different scale: MOVE was reported at 103.31 on October 23, alongside realized interest-rate volatility of 88.00.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 7
MOVE 103.32, up 85% from Jan low 55.77, near 52-week high 115.02 — bond fear at century mark vs VIX near 14
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
MOVE near 102 sits elevated versus recent equity calm while bond options still price bigger swings than stocks.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Bond fear via the MOVE index remains 18% above its 5-year norm despite realized yield swings grinding to multi-month lows.
- Kimiplace 4
MOVE near 100 vs 88 realized — the bond fear gauge keeps making higher lows while the VIX makes lower highs, and it has led the VIX before.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 6
MOVE 82 sits 8% under its 5-yr average — bond market is calm, AIs split 5-5
7 AIs put it here - 2
S&P 500 (VIX fear index)
Clearest gap, confirmed by four separate trackers: the VIX at 18.4–19.5 against 9–10% realized swings, about 8.4–9.5 points, in the 86th–89th percentile of its past year.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 1 · Meta: 4 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 6 · Kimi: 7 · Wenxin: 1
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 5
At 18.39 the VIX is up from a 14.25 year-to-date low in August, yet VIX futures at 19.12 and VIX3M at 19.94 say traders expect more fear, not less.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
The clearest directly observable fear-versus-swing comparison: on October 23, the VIX stood at 19.45 while a published 30-day realized-volatility estimate was just 9.92.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 4
VIX 18.39 vs 10.0% realized = +8.44 pts, 89th percentile rich, holding above 200-day 18.20 while semis up 3.49%
- Grokplace 4
VIX near 18 is modestly below its long-run ~19-20 zone and fell on a day stocks were mixed-to-up.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
The headline VIX trades at 14.8—a calm 3.6-point premium over realized swings—leaving US and Chinese algorithmic models evenly deadlocked.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 7
VIX 17.9 is roughly double the S&P's 21-day realized volatility of ~9 — the 8.4-point gap is in the 86th percentile of its own past year: not too low in level, too low in what stocks are actually doing.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 1
VIX 18.4 vs 16.2 realized — options demand 13% more fear than price delivered
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 3
Nasdaq-100 (VXN)
VXN near 26 runs about 8 points above the VIX even as the index rose 1.1%. One source estimates realized volatility at 18.9%, a 7-point gap.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 3 · Meta: 5 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 7 · Kimi: 6 · Wenxin: 2
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 7
The index rose 1.1% on Monday while the VIX fell 5.45%, which is calm pricing ahead of megacap earnings and an FOMC meeting.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
The technology-heavy index gained 1.1% in the supplied October 27 market snapshot, but a rising index does not establish that option markets are underpricing future turbulence.
- Metaplace 5
VXN 26.4 trading, 53% premium to VIX, gap +7.06 pts vs 18.9% realized, Nasdaq +1.1% today while QQQ-SPX spread 10%
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
VXN near 26 remains well above the S&P’s VIX even as the Nasdaq-100 rose about 1.1% on the day.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
VXN implied volatility lags tech earnings dispersion by 3.5 points, exposing single-stock concentration vulnerabilities.
- Kimiplace 6
VXN near 26 keeps an ~8-point premium over the VIX — chips rallied +2.8% today while NDX options still price fear 44% above the S&P's.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 2
VXN 22.1 while Nasdaq realized runs 17.5 — AI gang split 3-2 on a spike
7 AIs put it here - 4
Bitcoin volatility (DVOL)
Sources disagree on which way the gap runs. CryptoTicker puts DVOL near 38, 9–18 points over realized; CF Benchmarks shows realized 38.3 above implied 36.1. DVOL itself sits near multi-month lows.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 10 · Meta: 3 · Grok: 10 · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: 1 · Wenxin: 9
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 1
Options price about 38% annualized swings, while the last 14 days delivered about 20%, so options are pricing almost twice the recent daily movement.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
Bitcoin belongs in a cross-market fear ranking because its risk is not captured by VIX or MOVE, yet the retrieved evidence does not justify claiming that its own options currently underprice volatility.
- Metaplace 3
DVOL 37 at 5-year low vs 7-day realized near multi-year low, implied 4+ pts below realized — compressed spring at 1.5th percentile
- Grokplace 10
Crypto implied vols typically sit well above traditional markets, so options often price more fear than equity gauges even on quiet days.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
Deribit DVOL reflects a 11.4-point variance premium over realized drift, yet 8 of 10 AIs expect an explosive breakout range expansion.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 1
Options pay for almost twice the movement Bitcoin has delivered — DVOL 37.9 vs 20.2% realized over 14 days — yet that fear gauge sits near a 9-month low.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 9
BTC implied 48 vs realized 55 — options too cheap; seven of ten AIs bet on more swings
7 AIs put it here - 5
Brent crude oil
No AI found a Brent fear gauge. Brent shares oil's OVX near 60 while trading about $13 over WTI near $115–117, so its own implied-vs-realized gap is unmeasured.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 6 · Meta: 2 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 9 · Kimi: 3 · Wenxin: 10
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 2
OVX jumped 7.87% to 60.02 on 23 Oct while Brent sits just under $115, so oil is the market where fear is highest in absolute terms.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 6
A weekly market report placed Brent at $116.72 after a 6.24% weekly gain, while WTI gained 1.83% over the same reported week—a divergence worth checking against options risk pricing.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 2
Brent-WTI gap $13.45 at WTI $103.27 vs Brent near $117 with OVX 60.02 pricing fear
- Grokplace 7
Brent tracks closely with WTI’s elevated OVX-style readings, keeping oil options rich relative to equity fear gauges.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
London Brent CVOL trades 3.1 points tighter than WTI, reflecting sharp European hedging apathy despite transit route threats.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 3
Brent options still charge Hormuz insurance months after diplomacy — futures vol has been falling since the Feb-2022 pattern, but the implied premium over calm-era levels remains the widest in the complex after Bitcoin and WTI.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 10
Brent implied 28.1 vs realized 30.2 — US AIs shrug, CN AIs see geopolitical fire
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 6
Gold (GVZ)
Fear roughly matches the swings: GVZ 23.5 against 21.8% realized is only a 1.75-point gap (37th percentile), even after gold fell more than 4% in a week.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 9 · ChatGPT: 7 · Meta: 9 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 8 · Kimi: 5 · Wenxin: 4
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 9
Gold lost more than 4% in a week and briefly broke $4,000, yet GVZ at 22.2 is far below oil's OVX near 50 to 60.
- ChatGPTplace 7
Gold's reported weekly loss of 4.14% contrasts with the kind of defensive behavior many investors expect from the metal, making its options-implied risk worth examining rather than assuming it is a safe haven.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 9
GVZ 23.5 vs 21.8% realized gap only +1.75 pts, 37th percentile — fear in line, Gold CVOL 17.65 easing at elevated prices
- Grokplace 5
GVZ around 23.5 is calmer than oil’s OVX and only modestly above equity vols despite gold’s safe-haven role.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
GVZ sits at 15.6 while physical sovereign buyers quietly absorb realized moves without paying up for options hedges.
- Kimiplace 5
GVZ 23.6 runs ~7 points above its 5-year norm even with gold ~25% under its January peak of $5,589 — fear is priced for a rally, not the correction that happened.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 4
GVZ at 17.8 versus gold realized 14.9 — options fear is 20% richer than the move
7 AIs put it here - 7
Copper (CME CVOL)
CME shows copper CVOL at 24.06, but another source says it is over 35. An ETF proxy estimates 26.6 implied vs 18.4 realized, which is flat against its one-year swings.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 8 · Meta: 6 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 5 · Kimi: 8 · Wenxin: 8
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 10
Copper rose 0.8% today and the only CVOL print I could find, 31.0 in August, is two months old, so it is the least verifiable market here.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 8
Copper was up 0.8% in the supplied October 27 snapshot, while a weekly market report showed a 0.84% loss for the week—different horizons can tell very different stories.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 6
CVOL over 35 today vs year range 22.5-33.6%, still elevated despite copper +0.8% and July tariff exclusion collapse
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
Copper rose 0.8% amid AI and industrial demand talk, yet dedicated public CVOL readings remain less widely quoted than equity or oil vols.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Extreme upside call skew pushes implied volatility 6.2 points above realized returns as Chinese AIs overwhelmingly fade Western stockpiling panic.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 8
Copper options price 24% volatility against 18.4% realized — a 44% premium over the past month, though almost exactly on its 1-year average: fear is high vs now, normal vs history.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 8
Copper implied 21.3 trails realized 23.6 — options underpricing, AI Council sees no panic
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 8
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Fear and swings agree: dollar implied volatility near 5.3% vs NYU V-Lab's 5.27% forecast, the quietest of the 12, with DXY near an 18-month high of 102.
Included it: ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Grok.In their lists: ChatGPT: 9 · Gemini: 10 · Kimi: 9 · Wenxin: 7
What each AI noted 4
- ChatGPTplace 9
The dollar can appear calm while interest-rate expectations shift sharply; the MOVE reading above 100 makes the cross-market relationship more important than an isolated currency-volatility quote.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
FX CVOL remains pinned near 6.8% with 70% of council AIs forecasting low volatility compression despite diverging rate cut paths.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 9
Dollar volatility near 5.3% — the quietest fear reading in the whole complex — while the DXY itself trades at 102, an 18-month high: maximum positioning, minimum priced fear.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 7
Dollar implied 9.4 vs realized 7.9 — CN AIs see weaker dollar ahead, US bots disagree
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 9
Dow Jones (VXD)
Calmest US stock gauge: VXD at 17.19 sat below the VIX's 19.45 on the same day. No realized-volatility reading was found to test it.
Included it: Meta, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Meta: 10 · Grok: 6 · Kimi: 10
What each AI noted 3
- Metaplace 10
VXD 17.78 near mean 18.877, cheapest equity fear vs S&P 89th pct rich — Dow calm while VIX above 200-DMA
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
VXD near 17 is the lowest of the major US equity vol indexes and implies the smallest expected swings.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 10
VXD at 17.19 sits below the VIX — the one US equity gauge where the fear gauge and the tape roughly agree, so it ranks last on disagreement.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
In the week of Oct 19 the VIX rose about 5 points while S&P skew jumped from the 15th to the 82nd percentile. Cboe puts this down to hedging before megacap earnings, not falling stocks.
Bond fear has run ahead of stock fear: MOVE hovered near 116 in early October. It flagged turbulence before the VIX in 2022, March 2023 and the 2026 Iran war.
OVX went from about 28–30 in January to about 126 during the March Hormuz crisis, then back to about 58. Call skew dominated, so traders feared a spike up, not a crash.
The AI Council publishes direction calls, not volatility-jump votes. No source verified a weekly count of AIs betting on a volatility jump, so vote counts quoted elsewhere were dropped.
03Questions people ask
What is the VIX fear index today?
The VIX closed at 18.39 on Oct 26 and traded near 17.9 on the morning of Oct 27. Feeds differ (17.86 vs 18.47) because they take quotes at different times.
Source ↗Is the VIX too low?
Not as a level. Near 18 it sits on its 2026 average of 18.09 and just under the long-run ~19. Against what stocks are doing it is high: about double the ~9% 21-day realized volatility, in the 86th percentile.
Source ↗What moves the VIX?
Demand for S&P 500 protection. In the week of Oct 19, Cboe tied a roughly 5-point rise to downside hedging before megacap earnings, hot September CPI and PPI, and worries about AI borrowing.
Source ↗What moves the VIX index?
Cboe computes it live from mid-quotes of SPX calls and puts with 23–37 days to expiry. It rises when traders pay more for 30-day insurance, not when stocks merely fall.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Markets Where the Fear Gauge Disagrees With Real Swings and With the AIs
2Why this topic
There is no one table that shows options fear, realized swings and the bets of 10 AIs side by side for all 12 markets. This ranking does.
3Where it applies
Global; the 12 markets the AI Council tracks: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow, chips, US 10-year yield, dollar, VIX, gold, WTI, Brent, copper, Bitcoin
4What we looked at
- Gap between each market's options-implied volatility and its realized 30-day volatility
- Gap between that implied volatility and its own 5-year average
- Share of the 10 AIs betting on a volatility jump in that market this week
- Split between the 5 US and the 5 Chinese AIs on that market
- Cboe Global Markets (VIX, VXN, VXD, OVX, GVZ) — 30-day implied volatility from options on the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow, the USO oil ETF and the GLD gold ETF
- ICE BofA MOVE index — Implied volatility of US Treasury yields from 1-month options across 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities
- CME Group CVOL — 30-day implied volatility from futures options for copper, WTI, gold, FX and rates
- Deribit DVOL — 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin from Deribit options
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Bitcoin (BTC) volatility, October 2026
Options price about 38% annualized swings, while the last 14 days delivered about 20%, so options are pricing almost twice the recent daily movement.
Source ↗ - 2Brent crude oil (October 2026)
OVX jumped 7.87% to 60.02 on 23 Oct while Brent sits just under $115, so oil is the market where fear is highest in absolute terms.
Source ↗ - 3WTI crude oil (October 2026)
OVX is built on WTI-linked options and sits at 50 to 60, a level that is rare outside crises, yet I found no realized-volatility reading to test it against.
- 4US 10-year Treasury yield (October 2026)
MOVE has sat in a 99–102 band at the 92nd–94th percentile of its range while the 10-year hit 5.33% after CPI, so rate fear is high but unchanged.
Source ↗ - 5VIX (fear gauge) today, 27 October 2026
At 18.39 the VIX is up from a 14.25 year-to-date low in August, yet VIX futures at 19.12 and VIX3M at 19.94 say traders expect more fear, not less.
Source ↗ - 6S&P 500 (October 2026)
S&P skew jumped from the 15th to the 82nd percentile in one week, so options buyers are paying for downside protection even as the index trades near highs.
Source ↗ - 7Nasdaq-100 (27 October 2026)
The index rose 1.1% on Monday while the VIX fell 5.45%, which is calm pricing ahead of megacap earnings and an FOMC meeting.
Source ↗ - 8Chip stocks (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, SOX)
SOX gained 2.8% in one session, the largest move among the tracked equity markets, with no dedicated implied-volatility index to compare it against.
Source ↗ - 9Gold (October 2026)
Gold lost more than 4% in a week and briefly broke $4,000, yet GVZ at 22.2 is far below oil's OVX near 50 to 60.
- 10Copper (October 2026)
Copper rose 0.8% today and the only CVOL print I could find, 31.0 in August, is two months old, so it is the least verifiable market here.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Bitcoin has the cleanest gap I found: 38.3% implied against 20.2% realized over 14 days. The 30-day realized figure of 28.9% cuts that gap to about 9 points.
The VIX rose about 5 points in a week while skew moved from the 15th to the 82nd percentile. Cboe says the VIX moved 3.5 points more than skew alone implied, a sign of hedging demand rather than falling stocks.
The VIX fell to 14.25 in mid-August, a year-to-date low. Seasonal commentary says the yearly low tends to come in July and volatility peaks into October.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1S&P 500 VIX fear index
The clearest directly observable fear-versus-swing comparison: on October 23, the VIX stood at 19.45 while a published 30-day realized-volatility estimate was just 9.92.
Source ↗ - 2US 10-year Treasury yield and MOVE
Bond-market fear is running at a different scale: MOVE was reported at 103.31 on October 23, alongside realized interest-rate volatility of 88.00.
Source ↗ - 3Nasdaq-100 and VXN
The technology-heavy index gained 1.1% in the supplied October 27 market snapshot, but a rising index does not establish that option markets are underpricing future turbulence.
- 4Semiconductor stocks and the SOX index
Chips rose 2.8% in the supplied October 27 snapshot, making semiconductor risk a useful test of whether strong price momentum is masking expensive or unusually cheap protection.
- 5WTI crude oil
CME's research found that WTI CVOL DownVar30 correlated 0.637 with realized volatility over the next three sessions in its holdout analysis—a useful risk signal, but not proof that current oil options are mispriced.
Source ↗ - 6Brent crude oil
A weekly market report placed Brent at $116.72 after a 6.24% weekly gain, while WTI gained 1.83% over the same reported week—a divergence worth checking against options risk pricing.
Source ↗ - 7Gold and GVZ
Gold's reported weekly loss of 4.14% contrasts with the kind of defensive behavior many investors expect from the metal, making its options-implied risk worth examining rather than assuming it is a safe haven.
Source ↗ - 8Copper
Copper was up 0.8% in the supplied October 27 snapshot, while a weekly market report showed a 0.84% loss for the week—different horizons can tell very different stories.
Source ↗ - 9US dollar index
The dollar can appear calm while interest-rate expectations shift sharply; the MOVE reading above 100 makes the cross-market relationship more important than an isolated currency-volatility quote.
Source ↗ - 10Bitcoin
Bitcoin belongs in a cross-market fear ranking because its risk is not captured by VIX or MOVE, yet the retrieved evidence does not justify claiming that its own options currently underprice volatility.
What ChatGPT noticed
A VIX reading above realized volatility is not automatically evidence that protection is overpriced. Implied volatility includes compensation for volatility risk and reflects the distribution of future outcomes, while realized volatility describes the path already observed.
CME's 2026 WTI research supports forecasting the magnitude of moves more strongly than forecasting their direction. A volatility indicator and a bullish-or-bearish AI call answer different questions.
The reported October 23 MOVE reading of 103.31 and realized rates volatility of 88.00 suggest that Treasury-market uncertainty deserves separate attention even when equity fear appears more subdued.
The AI Council reports direction, trading actions and historical scoring, but a valid comparison of US versus Chinese AI volatility forecasts requires explicit, comparable weekly jump probabilities from all ten models.
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1WTI Crude Oil
OVX 60.0 vs 33.0% realized = +26.98 pts gap, 99th percentile richest ever
Source ↗ - 2Brent Crude Oil
Brent-WTI gap $13.45 at WTI $103.27 vs Brent near $117 with OVX 60.02 pricing fear
- 3Bitcoin
DVOL 37 at 5-year low vs 7-day realized near multi-year low, implied 4+ pts below realized — compressed spring at 1.5th percentile
- 4S&P 500
VIX 18.39 vs 10.0% realized = +8.44 pts, 89th percentile rich, holding above 200-day 18.20 while semis up 3.49%
- 5Nasdaq-100
VXN 26.4 trading, 53% premium to VIX, gap +7.06 pts vs 18.9% realized, Nasdaq +1.1% today while QQQ-SPX spread 10%
Source ↗ - 6Copper
CVOL over 35 today vs year range 22.5-33.6%, still elevated despite copper +0.8% and July tariff exclusion collapse
Source ↗ - 7US 10-Year Treasury Yield
MOVE 103.32, up 85% from Jan low 55.77, near 52-week high 115.02 — bond fear at century mark vs VIX near 14
Source ↗ - 8PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX)
SOX +2.8% today, semis up 3.49% while single-stock vol 33% vs index 12% and dispersion keeping lid on realized
Source ↗ - 9Gold
GVZ 23.5 vs 21.8% realized gap only +1.75 pts, 37th percentile — fear in line, Gold CVOL 17.65 easing at elevated prices
- 10Dow Jones Industrial Average
VXD 17.78 near mean 18.877, cheapest equity fear vs S&P 89th pct rich — Dow calm while VIX above 200-DMA
Source ↗
What Meta noticed
Bond vs stock vol divergence: MOVE 103.32 near 52-week high 115.02 up 85% from Jan low vs VIX 18.39 near long-term average 19 — Treasury fear at century mark while equity fear calm
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1US 10-year yield (MOVE index 2026)
MOVE near 102 sits elevated versus recent equity calm while bond options still price bigger swings than stocks.
Source ↗ - 2WTI crude oil (OVX 2026)
OVX around 58 is far above typical equity vol gauges and signals options still price large oil swings.
Source ↗ - 3Nasdaq-100 (VXN 2026)
VXN near 26 remains well above the S&P’s VIX even as the Nasdaq-100 rose about 1.1% on the day.
Source ↗ - 4S&P 500 (VIX 2026)
VIX near 18 is modestly below its long-run ~19-20 zone and fell on a day stocks were mixed-to-up.
Source ↗ - 5Gold (GVZ 2026)
GVZ around 23.5 is calmer than oil’s OVX and only modestly above equity vols despite gold’s safe-haven role.
Source ↗ - 6Dow Jones (VXD 2026)
VXD near 17 is the lowest of the major US equity vol indexes and implies the smallest expected swings.
Source ↗ - 7Brent crude (oil volatility 2026)
Brent tracks closely with WTI’s elevated OVX-style readings, keeping oil options rich relative to equity fear gauges.
Source ↗ - 8Chips / SOX-related (tech vol 2026)
Chip stocks rose ~2.8% while broader Nasdaq vol stayed elevated, hinting options still price more risk than the day’s price action.
Source ↗ - 9Copper (commodities vol 2026)
Copper rose 0.8% amid AI and industrial demand talk, yet dedicated public CVOL readings remain less widely quoted than equity or oil vols.
Source ↗ - 10Bitcoin (crypto vol 2026)
Crypto implied vols typically sit well above traditional markets, so options often price more fear than equity gauges even on quiet days.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Equity fear gauges (VIX ~18, VXD ~17) sit near or below long-term norms while oil’s OVX stays near 58, showing commodity options still embed far larger expected swings.
Nasdaq VXN near 26 remains the highest major equity vol index even as the Nasdaq-100 gained on the day, a common pattern when tech leads but options stay cautious.
MOVE near 102 keeps bond-market expected volatility elevated relative to the calm in stocks, a divergence traders have watched through 2026.
VIX spent much of recent months in the mid-teens before climbing back toward 18-19, illustrating how quickly the fear gauge can reset when inflation or AI-financing headlines appear.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Semiconductor Stocks (SOX / SMH)
Implied volatility sits 7.4 points below realized 30-day swings while 8 of 10 AIs predict an immediate turbulence spike.
- 2WTI Crude Oil
Options traders price an 11.2-point volatility premium over quiet spot swings, but Chinese AIs see zero follow-through demand.
Source ↗ - 3US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Bond fear via the MOVE index remains 18% above its 5-year norm despite realized yield swings grinding to multi-month lows.
- 4Bitcoin (BTC)
Deribit DVOL reflects a 11.4-point variance premium over realized drift, yet 8 of 10 AIs expect an explosive breakout range expansion.
Source ↗ - 5COMEX Copper
Extreme upside call skew pushes implied volatility 6.2 points above realized returns as Chinese AIs overwhelmingly fade Western stockpiling panic.
Source ↗ - 6S&P 500
The headline VIX trades at 14.8—a calm 3.6-point premium over realized swings—leaving US and Chinese algorithmic models evenly deadlocked.
Source ↗ - 7Nasdaq-100
VXN implied volatility lags tech earnings dispersion by 3.5 points, exposing single-stock concentration vulnerabilities.
- 8Gold
GVZ sits at 15.6 while physical sovereign buyers quietly absorb realized moves without paying up for options hedges.
- 9Brent Crude Oil
London Brent CVOL trades 3.1 points tighter than WTI, reflecting sharp European hedging apathy despite transit route threats.
Source ↗ - 10US Dollar Index (DXY / G5 Currencies)
FX CVOL remains pinned near 6.8% with 70% of council AIs forecasting low volatility compression despite diverging rate cut paths.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
The 10 autonomous AIs display a sharp geographic split on commodity volatility: US AIs heavily price shipping and geopolitical disruptions in WTI and copper, whereas Chinese AIs anticipate stable processing demand and dampening volatility.
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Bitcoin (BTC-USD) volatility
Options pay for almost twice the movement Bitcoin has delivered — DVOL 37.9 vs 20.2% realized over 14 days — yet that fear gauge sits near a 9-month low.
Source ↗ - 2WTI crude oil (OVX)
OVX near 58 prices a crisis month in oil — its own 10-year average is 41.3 and the March shock that sent it to ~126 has half-faded.
Source ↗ - 3Brent crude oil volatility
Brent options still charge Hormuz insurance months after diplomacy — futures vol has been falling since the Feb-2022 pattern, but the implied premium over calm-era levels remains the widest in the complex after Bitcoin and WTI.
Source ↗ - 4US 10-year Treasury yield (MOVE Index)
MOVE near 100 vs 88 realized — the bond fear gauge keeps making higher lows while the VIX makes lower highs, and it has led the VIX before.
Source ↗ - 5Gold (GVZ)
GVZ 23.6 runs ~7 points above its 5-year norm even with gold ~25% under its January peak of $5,589 — fear is priced for a rally, not the correction that happened.
Source ↗ - 6Nasdaq-100 (VXN) and chip stocks
VXN near 26 keeps an ~8-point premium over the VIX — chips rallied +2.8% today while NDX options still price fear 44% above the S&P's.
Source ↗ - 7S&P 500 (VIX)
VIX 17.9 is roughly double the S&P's 21-day realized volatility of ~9 — the 8.4-point gap is in the 86th percentile of its own past year: not too low in level, too low in what stocks are actually doing.
Source ↗ - 8Copper (HG futures, CVOL)
Copper options price 24% volatility against 18.4% realized — a 44% premium over the past month, though almost exactly on its 1-year average: fear is high vs now, normal vs history.
Source ↗ - 9US Dollar Index (DXY)
Dollar volatility near 5.3% — the quietest fear reading in the whole complex — while the DXY itself trades at 102, an 18-month high: maximum positioning, minimum priced fear.
Source ↗ - 10Dow Jones Industrial Average (VXD)
VXD at 17.19 sits below the VIX — the one US equity gauge where the fear gauge and the tape roughly agree, so it ranks last on disagreement.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
The S&P's variance risk premium — VIX minus 21-day realized vol — is +8.42, in the 86th percentile of its own past year: option sellers are charging near-record amounts for protection versus how quiet stocks actually are.
The bond-vs-stock fear split is the live macro debate: the MOVE index jumped 46% in June and hovered near 116 in early October while the VIX sat near year-to-date lows — and MOVE led the VIX before the 2022 rout, the March 2023 banking stress and the 2026 Iran war.
Oil's fear gauge made one of the wildest round trips on record in 2026: OVX went from ~28-30 in January to ~126 during the March Hormuz crisis (with upside call skew — traders feared a bigger spike, not a crash) and back to ~58, still above its 10-year average of 41.3.
Bitcoin now has three competing fear gauges — Deribit DVOL, Cboe BITVX (IBIT options) and CME's BVX futures — and they can disagree because they read different liquidity pools: retail-crypto options vs ETF options vs institutional futures.
🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) 2026
VIX 18.4 vs 16.2 realized — options demand 13% more fear than price delivered
Source ↗ - 2Nasdaq-100 (VXN) 2026
VXN 22.1 while Nasdaq realized runs 17.5 — AI gang split 3-2 on a spike
- 3Chips (SOX / SMH) 2026
SOX implied 28% above realized — all five US AIs side with the rally, three CN cautious
- 4Gold (GVZ) 2026
GVZ at 17.8 versus gold realized 14.9 — options fear is 20% richer than the move
- 5WTI Oil (OVX) 2026
OVX 29.5 vs realized 26.8 — Chinese AIs want oil fear, US AIs don't
- 6US 10-Year Yield (MOVE) 2026
MOVE 82 sits 8% under its 5-yr average — bond market is calm, AIs split 5-5
- 7Dollar (DX CVOL) 2026
Dollar implied 9.4 vs realized 7.9 — CN AIs see weaker dollar ahead, US bots disagree
Source ↗ - 8Copper (CME CVOL) 2026
Copper implied 21.3 trails realized 23.6 — options underpricing, AI Council sees no panic
Source ↗ - 9Bitcoin (BVOL/DVOL) 2026
BTC implied 48 vs realized 55 — options too cheap; seven of ten AIs bet on more swings
- 10Brent Oil (CME CVOL) 2026
Brent implied 28.1 vs realized 30.2 — US AIs shrug, CN AIs see geopolitical fire
Source ↗
What Wenxin noticed
Gold's GVZ is the only vol index where a clear majority of Chinese AIs (5 of 5) outvote the US side — reflecting China's reserve-building push into bullion.
The MOVE index has quietly slid 8% below its 5-year mean while yields chop around 4.25%; few traders expect a Treasury tantrum, but the AI Council is evenly split.