Back to the trend of the day: A strong cyclone is about to hit India's east coast (in Hindi)

Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

Cyclone Arnab Landfall Time and Location: 10 Hardest Calls

Cyclone Nargis was expected to hit Bangladesh or south-east India in 2008 but turned east into Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta, while in 2020 IMD placed Amphan's landfall within 5.5 km a day ahead.

No. 1: Cyclone Nargis 2008
10 places
Current as of October 27, 2026, 08:54 EDT

01Final list

The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

1
Cyclone Nargis 2008
Biggest landfall miss: expected in Bangladesh or south-east India, it turned east into Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta. Its reported warning lead time ranges from about 48 h down to 12–18 h.
Included it: Claude, Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 1 · Gemini: 2
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 1
  Forecast to hit Bangladesh or south-east India, it turned east and struck the Irrawaddy delta, a coast that had no recent major-cyclone history.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 2
  Baffled dynamical guidance by veering sharply east straight into the vulnerable Ayeyarwady Delta instead of continuing toward Bangladesh, intensifying into a Category 4 equivalent within hours.
2 AIs put it here
Source ↗
2
1999 Odisha super cyclone
Forecast to move inland toward Bangladesh, it stalled over Jajpur at 260 km/h for about two days. Track doubts delayed mainland warnings until two days before landfall.
Included it: Claude, Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 2 · Gemini: 7
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 2
  IMD forecast it to move inland and turn toward Bangladesh. It stalled over Jajpur for about two days instead.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 7
  Exceeded all contemporary analog models by undergoing explosive deepening into a Category 5 super cyclone and hovering motionless over Jagatsinghpur for 36 punishing hours.
2 AIs put it here
Source ↗
3
Cyclone Michaung 2023
Headlines put landfall at Chennai on 1 December and on the Andhra coast by 3 December. It crawled up the coast, dropped 530 mm on Chennai, and crossed near Bapatla.
Included it: Claude, Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 4 · Gemini: 8
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 4
  The headlines said Chennai on 1 December and Andhra Pradesh by 3 December, and the storm then crawled up the coast and came ashore near Bapatla.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 8
  Ground to a virtual halt just 40 km off Chennai for over a day, dropping catastrophic rain before slowly crawling northward to make landfall near Bapatla.
2 AIs put it here
Source ↗
4
Cyclone Titli 2018
On 7 October JTWC gave it a low chance of forming because models disagreed. Three days later it hit Palasa at its peak. IMD and JTWC winds differ (150 vs 195 km/h).
Included it: Claude, Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 7 · Gemini: 5
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 7
  On 7 October JTWC gave it a low chance of forming because models disagreed, and three days later it hit Palasa with a 12 km eye.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 5
  Surged from a modest cyclonic storm to a very severe cyclone in under 24 hours while wrenching northeastward directly into Palasa, catching coastal villages with scarce reaction time.
2 AIs put it here
Source ↗
5
Cyclone Madi 2013
Expected to hit Andhra Pradesh or Odisha, it reversed almost 180° back toward Tamil Nadu and weakened. Only one AI listed it, and its spread figures are unconfirmed.
Included it: Gemini. Did not include: Claude.
In their lists: Gemini: 1
What each AI noted 1
- Geminiplace 1
  Carved a surreal inverted hairpin in the open sea, reversing course by nearly 180 degrees back toward Tamil Nadu after models projected a landfall in Andhra Pradesh or Odisha.
1 AIs put it here
no source given
6
Cyclone Mocha 2023
The landfall point held steady, but the landfall wind forecast rose from 130 to 180–190 km/h in four days. The observed peak was 215 km/h (IMD).
Included it: Claude. Did not include: Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 3
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 3
  The landfall point barely moved between bulletins, but the forecast landfall wind went from 130 km/h to 180–190 km/h in four days.
  Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
Source ↗
7
Cyclone Mahasen 2013
Forecast too strong and too far east: JTWC's first forecast was above 155 km/h, but it hit Bangladesh near Feni at about 85 km/h on a more westerly track.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 5
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 5
  JTWC's first forecast had winds above 155 km/h, but it hit Bangladesh with about 85 km/h on a more westerly track than expected.
  Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
Source ↗
8
Cyclone Hudhud 2014
The landfall at Visakhapatnam was well forecast, but the storm rapidly intensified while stalled offshore. IMD's operational 960 hPa was later revised to 950 hPa.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 6
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 6
  It rapidly intensified on 11 October while stalled south-east of Visakhapatnam, and IMD's operational 960 hPa was later revised to 950 hPa.
  Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
Source ↗
9
Cyclone Roanu 2016
It ran parallel to four Indian states' coasts before crossing in Bangladesh. Its quoted 54 km final landfall error is an unconfirmed figure from one source.
Included it: Gemini. Did not include: Claude.
In their lists: Gemini: 9
What each AI noted 1
- Geminiplace 9
  Maintained an agonizingly persistent parallel course skimming Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Bengal before finally making landfall across the Bay in Bangladesh.
1 AIs put it here
no source given
10
Cyclone Sidr 2007
IMD's cyclone alert on 14 November covered Odisha and West Bengal. A day later the storm struck Bangladesh's Barguna/Patuakhali coast at 215 km/h (IMD).
Included it: Claude. Did not include: Gemini.
In their lists: Claude: 10
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 10
  IMD issued a formation alert on 11 November and a cyclone alert for Odisha and West Bengal on 14 November, but the storm hit Bangladesh on 15 November.
  Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The three misses are measured in different ways: Nargis by the wrong country, Odisha by a stalled track, Michaung by a slow crawl up the coast. Their wind and rain figures also come from different agencies and time windows.

1Cyclone Nargis 2008

No. 1 — Cyclone Nargis 2008. On the lists of 2 of 2 AIs; median place there: 1.5. AIs ranked it first because forecasters expected Bangladesh or south-east India, but it turned east and struck Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta.

Did you know

The Irrawaddy Delta was once known as the "rice bowl" of the British Empire. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that Nargis affected 65% of Myanmar's paddies.
Source ↗

What it is: A 2008 cyclone that hit Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta instead of Bangladesh or India.
Its edge: Its miss was the biggest: a whole different country from the forecast.
Who should know: Useful for anyone who wants to know how wrong a cyclone forecast can be.

Landfall miss vs forecastTurned east into Myanmar

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Early forecasts said Nargis would hit Bangladesh or south-east India. It struck Myanmar's Ayeyarwady Division around 1200 UTC on 2 May 2008. That is the rating's biggest miss between forecast and real landfall.
Source ↗
The agencies disagreed on its strength. At peak, JTWC gave 1-minute winds of 215 km/h and IMD gave 3-minute winds of 165 km/h. India warned Myanmar 48 hours before landfall, yet at least 138,373 people died.
Source ↗

Did you know

Nargis reached Category 4 on 2 May. It was the only storm in its basin to do so three years in a row, after Mala (2006) and Sidr and Gonu (2007).
Source ↗

History

In May 2008, more than a week after Cyclone Nargis, only about one in 10 people in need had received any aid. The military government refused visas to more foreign aid workers, and it warned people who hoarded or sold relief goods that they would be prosecuted.
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open this NASA satellite picture of heavy rain from Nargis. Look at where the rain fell, then think about how that fits the storm's turn east into Myanmar.
Source ↗

Video: Myanmar man makes guitars from Cyclone Nargis wood - BBC News · BBC News

Compare the top three ↓

21999 Odisha super cyclone

No. 2 — 1999 Odisha super cyclone. On the lists of 2 of 2 AIs; median place there: 4.5. AIs put it second because it was forecast to move inland toward Bangladesh but stalled over Jajpur for about two days instead.

Did you know

No instrument measured the peak storm surge, because the storm destroyed them all. Waves sank 9,085 fishing boats, and some trawlers ended up 1.5–2.0 km inland.
Source ↗

What it is: A 1999 super cyclone that hit Odisha and stalled over land for about two days.
Its edge: Its winds were stronger than the other two storms, with the lowest pressure on record.
Who should know: Useful for anyone who wants to see how a stalled track can be as deadly as a wrong landfall.

Landfall miss vs forecastStalled about two days

Why it is here

Winds peaked at 260 km/h with a record-low 912 hPa, the lowest ever recorded in the North Indian Ocean. Landfall came at 06:00 UTC on 29 October 1999. That is the extreme intensity the rating's wind-error criterion looks for.
Source ↗
The track was forecast to turn toward Bangladesh after landfall. Instead the storm stayed quasi-stationary for two days near Jajpur. India counted 9,887 deaths, and Paradip recorded 530 mm of rain in 24 hours.
Source ↗

Did you know

Oupada recorded 955 mm of rain over three days. Konark, the temple town, stayed in knee-deep water for six days after landfall.
Source ↗

History

After the 1999 super cyclone, authorities built cyclone shelters, concrete homes and sturdier infrastructure along the coast. Fishermen now have shelters to run to when storms come, and the state was praised during Cyclones Phailin in 2013 and Yaas in 2021.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

Years later, survivors told reporters that no political party had given them livelihood help, cyclone shelters or compensation. Recovery was slow and uneven.
Source ↗
Even 25 years on, a report says survivors rebuilt their lives despite official insensitivity and bureaucratic delays. Exact death counts are also unclear.
Source ↗

What people say

"We were saved. But the next morning, we found my father, mother and brother dead." — Khokan Pramanik, survivor, Kankana village
Source ↗

Where to go further

Read the Wikipedia summary first. It gives the storm's top speed, its record-low pressure, and the landfall date. Then look for the warning timeline.
Source ↗

Compare the top three ↓

3Cyclone Michaung 2023

No. 3 — Cyclone Michaung 2023. On the lists of 2 of 2 AIs; median place there: 6. AIs placed it third because headlines pointed to Chennai, but it crawled up the coast and crossed near Bapatla.

Did you know

Myanmar gave the storm its name. Michaung means "crocodile" in Burmese.
Source ↗

What it is: A 2023 cyclone that flooded Chennai but came ashore far up the coast in Andhra Pradesh.
Its edge: The only one where heavy rain fell far from the landfall point.
Who should know: Useful for anyone who wants to know why the rain can hit a different place than the landfall.

Landfall miss vs forecastCrossed near Bapatla

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Michaung's rain was the long, slow kind. Nungambakkam in Chennai recorded 530 mm between 2 and 4 December 2023. Landfall then came on 5 December between Nellore and Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh, a long way up the coast.
Source ↗
At landfall in Andhra Pradesh, winds reached 60 knots (110 km/h), far weaker than the other two storms. At least 17 people died and more than 41,000 were evacuated, which shows how much the warnings helped.
Source ↗

History

On 4 December 2023, Chennai International Airport closed because of flooding on its apron and runways. The Indian Air Force dropped more than 2,300 kilograms of food packets and relief supplies on flooded parts of Chennai.
Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs

Keep in mind

Death counts differ by report: one says eight, another nine, another at least 13. Early reports also tied the storm to Chennai, though it crossed the coast at Bapatla.
Source ↗

What people say

"The water had risen up an entire floor through the day." — Kamna Revanoor, Chennai resident
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open this Sphere India situation report and check its 24-hour rainfall figures for Chennai. Compare them with the news reports. They differ, so note which time window each one uses.
Source ↗

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

	Cyclone Nargis 2008	1999 Odisha super cyclone	Cyclone Michaung 2023
In the AIs' lists	2 / 2	2 / 2	2 / 2
Landfall miss vs forecast	Turned east into Myanmar	Stalled about two days	Crossed near Bapatla
Put first by	Claude	—	—

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Mocha shows a good landfall-point forecast can still badly miss storm strength. Its forecast landfall wind was revised five times.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude. Did not include: Gemini.

Source ↗

'Forecast wind error' depends on which agency's observation you use. IMD reports 3-minute winds and JTWC 1-minute winds: Titli was 150 vs 195 km/h.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude, Gemini.

Source ↗

Arnab's forecast wind is disputed: ANI says 115–125 km/h with gusts to 140, another source says 125–135 km/h. Landfall has not happened yet, so Arnab is not ranked.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude, Gemini.

Source ↗

04Questions people ask

Where will cyclone Arnab make landfall?

As of 27 October 2026, IMD expects landfall on the morning of 28 October near Yanam, between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with 16 districts on alert. ANI gives winds of 115–125 km/h; another source says 125–135 km/h.

Source ↗

Where did cyclone make landfall recently?

Montha came ashore near Narasapuram, Andhra Pradesh, on 29 October 2025. Dana came ashore near Bhitarkanika, Odisha, on 24 October 2024.

Source ↗

Where will hurricane make landfall?

'Hurricane' is the Atlantic and east Pacific name. In the Bay of Bengal, IMD bulletins give a landfall zone and time, and the point can shift by tens of km between bulletins.

Source ↗

Where will hurricane make landfall in Jamaica?

The US National Hurricane Center issues Jamaica forecasts. In 2024, Hurricane Beryl passed about 20 miles south of the coast without its centre making landfall.

05How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Bay of Bengal Cyclones Whose Landfall Was Hardest to Forecast

2Why this topic

It sets the official forecast, two global models and the observed track side by side, so readers see a forecast landfall as a range, not a point, and understand why Arnab's warnings cover such a long stretch of the Andhra coast.

3Where it applies

Bay of Bengal cyclones that crossed the coasts of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, from the satellite era to Arnab (2026)

4What we looked at

Distance between the landfall point forecast 24 hours ahead and the real landfall point
How far IMD's official forecast and the ECMWF and GFS global model runs were from each other
Error in the forecast peak wind speed, including rapid strengthening that was not foreseen
Whether the final warnings still gave people enough time to prepare
IMD / RSMC New Delhi annual cyclone forecast verification — Official track, landfall point, landfall time and intensity errors at 12–72 h, against the long-period average. IMD checks these against its
IMD post-storm reports (Yaas 2021, Dana 2024) — Landfall point error by lead time for a single storm
NCMRWF global-model verification (Amphan 2020) — Track and landfall errors of the global models, separate from IMD's official forecast
NOAA IBTrACS — Observed tracks and winds merged from IMD, JTWC and other agencies, so agencies can be compared

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, Gemini.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

06Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
Cyclone Nargis 2008 (Myanmar)
Forecast to hit Bangladesh or south-east India, it turned east and struck the Irrawaddy delta, a coast that had no recent major-cyclone history.
Source ↗
2
1999 Odisha super cyclone
IMD forecast it to move inland and turn toward Bangladesh. It stalled over Jajpur for about two days instead.
Source ↗
3
Cyclone Mocha 2023 (Myanmar/Bangladesh)
The landfall point barely moved between bulletins, but the forecast landfall wind went from 130 km/h to 180–190 km/h in four days.
Source ↗
4
Cyclone Michaung 2023 (Andhra Pradesh)
The headlines said Chennai on 1 December and Andhra Pradesh by 3 December, and the storm then crawled up the coast and came ashore near Bapatla.
Source ↗
5
Cyclone Mahasen 2013 (Bangladesh/Myanmar)
JTWC's first forecast had winds above 155 km/h, but it hit Bangladesh with about 85 km/h on a more westerly track than expected.
Source ↗
6
Cyclone Hudhud 2014 (Visakhapatnam)
It rapidly intensified on 11 October while stalled south-east of Visakhapatnam, and IMD's operational 960 hPa was later revised to 950 hPa.
Source ↗
7
Cyclone Titli 2018 (Andhra Pradesh/Odisha)
On 7 October JTWC gave it a low chance of forming because models disagreed, and three days later it hit Palasa with a 12 km eye.
Source ↗
8
Cyclone Montha 2025 (Andhra Pradesh)
One headline said the forecasts 'go south, so does landfall', and it came ashore near Narasapuram with only 95 km/h.
Source ↗
9
Cyclone Bulbul 2019 (West Bengal/Bangladesh)
It peaked at 140 km/h on 8 November and weakened to a severe cyclonic storm just before landfall near Sagar Island.
Source ↗
10
Cyclone Sidr 2007 (Bangladesh)
IMD issued a formation alert on 11 November and a cyclone alert for Odisha and West Bengal on 14 November, but the storm hit Bangladesh on 15 November.
Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Mocha's forecast landfall point stayed put while its intensity forecast was raised repeatedly. Landfall location was well forecast, but the storm's strength was not.

Source ↗

For Arnab, the same landfall zone (Bapatla to Visakhapatnam, near Yanam) is forecast on 27 October. A miss of tens of km would matter because rainfall is expected over 16 districts.

Source ↗

🇺🇸 Gemini10 places

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
Cyclone Madi (2013)
Carved a surreal inverted hairpin in the open sea, reversing course by nearly 180 degrees back toward Tamil Nadu after models projected a landfall in Andhra Pradesh or Odisha.
2
Cyclone Nargis (2008)
Baffled dynamical guidance by veering sharply east straight into the vulnerable Ayeyarwady Delta instead of continuing toward Bangladesh, intensifying into a Category 4 equivalent within hours.
3
Cyclone Jawad (2021)
Generated widespread multi-state red alerts before cold sea patches and wind shear dissolved the system entirely off Puri without a single cyclone-strength coastal impact.
4
Cyclone Asani (2022)
Approached within striking distance of Machilipatnam before hugging the coastline in an acute recurvature loop, bypassing direct landfall entirely.
5
Cyclone Titli (2018)
Surged from a modest cyclonic storm to a very severe cyclone in under 24 hours while wrenching northeastward directly into Palasa, catching coastal villages with scarce reaction time.
6
Cyclone Arnab (2026)
Challenged real-time guidance as mid-tropospheric steering currents kept ECMWF and GFS oscillating between a direct strike on Yanam and a grazing path past coastal Odisha.
7
1999 Odisha Super Cyclone (BOB 05B)
Exceeded all contemporary analog models by undergoing explosive deepening into a Category 5 super cyclone and hovering motionless over Jagatsinghpur for 36 punishing hours.
8
Cyclone Michaung (2023)
Ground to a virtual halt just 40 km off Chennai for over a day, dropping catastrophic rain before slowly crawling northward to make landfall near Bapatla.
9
Cyclone Roanu (2016)
Maintained an agonizingly persistent parallel course skimming Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Bengal before finally making landfall across the Bay in Bangladesh.
10
Cyclone Fani (2019)
Exhibited extreme longevity across ten days, starting with long-range track projections pointed toward Tamil Nadu before executing a sweeping recurvature toward Puri.

01Final list

Cyclone Nargis 2008

1999 Odisha super cyclone

Cyclone Michaung 2023

Cyclone Titli 2018

Cyclone Madi 2013

Cyclone Mocha 2023

Cyclone Mahasen 2013

Cyclone Hudhud 2014

Cyclone Roanu 2016

Cyclone Sidr 2007

02More about the top three

1Cyclone Nargis 2008

Did you know

21999 Odisha super cyclone

Did you know

3Cyclone Michaung 2023

Did you know

The top three side by side

More ratings

03Worth knowing

04Questions people ask

05How we counted

1The question

2Why this topic

3Where it applies

4What we looked at

5Who ranked

6How the places were set

06Each AI's own list

What Claude noticed