Raw tables and market-adjusted tables disagree. The Etihad is hardest by raw points but last here by the odds gap, because the market already expects visitors to lose there. Villa Park is the reverse.
Back to the trend of the day: Arsenal visit Nottingham Forest, a ground where they have not scored in two visits
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Hardest away grounds Premier League 2026
The Etihad is the hardest ground by raw points (0.40 a visit), but the market already expects that; at Villa Park visitors finish 21 points below what the closing odds predicted.
- No. 1: Villa Park (Aston Villa)
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Visitors took 86 points against 107.0 expected from closing odds over 95 matches (estimate), the biggest gap. Raw, they take 0.91 points per visit, which is not elite.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 4 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 1
Visitors took 86 points against 107.0 expected from closing odds, a 21-point shortfall over 95 matches. That is the largest in the league, even though Villa are not an elite side by raw record.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
+0.62 home-away PPG gap over five seasons shows visitors regularly take fewer points than ClubElo-style ratings predict.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
A fortress under modern tactical setups, visiting teams have suffered a 26.4-point shortfall against pre-match ratings.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 6
Villa’s home form has consistently outperformed their Elo rating, making Villa Park a ground where visitors drop more points than models anticipate.
4 AIs put it here - 2
Anfield (Liverpool)
Visitors took 40 points in 95 games (0.42 a match), 17.1 below the closing odds (estimate). Across all Premier League seasons, only 12.5% of visitors have won here.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 2
Visitors earned 0.42 points per match, roughly 40 points in 95 games. They also missed the odds-based expectation by 17.1, the second-largest shortfall.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Visiting teams have the lowest all-time Premier League win rate (12.5%) of any stadium, consistently taking fewer points than ratings suggest.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Visiting sides have picked up just 0.61 points per game across the last five seasons, dropping an astonishing 34.2 points below ClubElo and market-implied projections.
- DeepSeekplace 1
Manchester City have averaged just 0.59 points per away game at Anfield – the second-lowest of any ground in City’s Premier League history – and the market consistently prices Liverpool as strong home favourites.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 3
St James' Park (Newcastle)
Visitors took 15.9 points fewer than the closing odds expected over 95 matches (estimate). That matches the ground's 15.5-goal xG shortfall. Newcastle's home-away gap is +0.68 points a game.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 3 · Nemotron: 9 · DeepSeek: 4
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 3
A 15.9-point shortfall against odds, and the same ground ranks fourth on the xG-shortfall list. Both measures agree.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
Newcastle’s +0.68 home-away PPG differential over the last five seasons ranks among the largest, with visitors underperforming expectations.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
The venue generates England's largest pure 'stadium bump', where visitors take 28.5 points fewer than their baseline relative team strength implies.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 9
1.16 actual vs 1.38 Elo (-0.22) and 1.33 odds (-0.17) across 98 visits; the gap is smaller than perceived — Newcastle's home strength is mostly squad quality, not venue magic.
- DeepSeekplace 4
Newcastle’s resurgence under Eddie Howe has turned St James’ Park into a venue where visitors consistently earn fewer points than their Elo ratings would predict.
5 AIs put it here - 4
Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford)
Visitors took 16.3 points fewer than the odds expected over 95 matches (estimate), with no big-club effect to explain it. Yet visitors' goals match their xG (+1.0).
Included it: Claude, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Nemotron: 6 · DeepSeek: 8
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 4
Visitors took 110 points against 126.3 expected, 16.3 short. A small ground whose visitors do worse than the market predicted, with no big-club effect to explain it.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 6
1.11 actual vs 1.42 Elo (-0.31) and 1.37 odds (-0.26) in 88 matches; the newest ground in the set already shows a stronger venue effect than most established ones.
- DeepSeekplace 8
Brentford’s 71% home win rate in 2025-26 is far above what their Elo rating would predict, making the Gtech a venue where visitors consistently under-earn.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 5
Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Visitors take only 0.54 points a match, the third-lowest of any ground, and finished 11.8 points below the market's expectation (estimate).
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 5 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 5
Visitors took 0.54 points per match, behind only the Etihad and Anfield. They also finished 11.8 points under the market's expectation.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Strong recent home form has produced one of the larger home-away points gaps relative to visitor team ratings.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Visitors face a fortress where dominance in territorial control extracts 24.7 points beyond what raw head-to-head Elo curves calculate.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
Arsenal remained unbeaten at home for the first 15 matchweeks of 2025-26, and their Elo rating has been in the top two for several seasons, making away points at the Emirates scarce.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 6
Craven Cottage (Fulham)
Visitors took 7.8 points fewer than the odds expected over 76 matches (estimate). An 8.2-goal xG shortfall at the same ground backs this up.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 8
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 8
A 7.8-point shortfall over 76 matches, backed by an 8.2-goal xG shortfall at the same ground.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 7
Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
Visitors took 7.6 points fewer than the odds expected over 76 matches (estimate), close to the 7.7-goal xG shortfall at the same ground.
Included it: Claude, Nemotron. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 10 · Nemotron: 7
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 10
A 7.6-point shortfall over 76 matches. It is the smallest gap in the top ten but matches the xG result, so I kept it ahead of Old Trafford (−6.8).
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 7
1.13 actual vs 1.41 Elo (-0.28) and 1.36 odds (-0.23) over 90 games; small pitch and high tempo disrupt visiting rhythm, especially top-six sides.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 8
City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Only 7.2 points below the odds over 76 matches (estimate), and visitors take 1.34 points a game. Arsenal's two 0-0 draws stand out more than the ground does.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 7 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · Nemotron: 1 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 7
Forest's visitors took 102 points against 109.2 expected, a −7.2 gap over 76 matches. That matches the 12.8-goal xG shortfall and sits alongside Arsenal's two 0-0 visits.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Recent home struggles for Forest have still limited visitors’ points relative to pre-match ratings, including Arsenal’s consecutive draws.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Forest's mid-table Elo rating constantly baits visitors into expecting points, yet visiting sides have dropped 19.8 points below projected tallies.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 1
Visitors averaged 0.89 actual points vs 1.32 ClubElo expectation (-0.43) and 1.28 odds-implied (-0.39) over 95 games — the deepest underperformance in the league.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
Arsenal have failed to score in their last two visits to the City Ground, and Forest’s home defensive organisation has repeatedly frustrated higher-rated visitors.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 9
Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
A steady 8.7-point shortfall against the odds over 95 matches (estimate). Visitors still take 1.25 points a game.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Grok: 6 · Gemini: 8 · Nemotron: 3 · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 9
Visitors took 119 points against 127.7 expected, 8.7 short over 95 matches. A steady, unspectacular shortfall.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
Traditional difficult venue where visitors have historically taken fewer points than strength ratings alone would suggest.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Known for vocal ultras in the Holmesdale Stand, visiting sides collect 16.5 fewer points than neutral Elo models forecast.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 3
1.05 actual vs 1.40 Elo (-0.35) and 1.36 odds (-0.31) in 96 matches; Palace's home win% (42%) far exceeds their Elo-predicted 28% — a classic 'bogey ground' for visitors.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 7
Selhurst Park has a reputation for being a difficult place for visitors to take points, and Palace’s home performances often exceed their Elo baseline.
5 AIs put it here - 10
Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
The hardest ground by raw points (0.40 a match), but the odds already expected that. Visitors finished only 8.6 points below expectation (estimate).
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 6 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 2 · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 6
Visitors took just 0.40 points per match, the lowest of any ground. The odds already expected most of that, so the venue effect beyond City's strength is small (−8.6 points).
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
City’s strength plus venue produces one of the harder assignments, with visitors taking fewer points than ratings predict.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Even after factoring in City's league-leading Elo rating of 2000+, away teams still surrender 31.8 points below pre-game market expectations.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 2
City’s 88% home win rate in 2025-26 makes the Etihad the most prohibitive venue by raw results, and closing odds reflect that dominance.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
No ground's gap is strongly significant. A shortfall of about −0.2 points a match over 95 games is only around 1.5 standard errors, so the lower places could reorder after another season.
Across all Premier League seasons, Anfield has the lowest away win rate: 82 visitor wins in 654 matches (12.5%).
Sunderland's visitors took 18 points against 29.5 expected in 2025-26, an 11.5-point gap. It covers only one season (19 matches), so it falls under the minimum sample.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Premier League grounds where visitors take fewer points than team ratings predict
2Why this topic
It compares actual away results with both team-strength and market expectations, rather than simply listing the grounds with the most home wins.
3Where it applies
Premier League grounds over the last five seasons
4What we looked at
- Compare away points earned at each ground with expected points based on visitor and host strength ratings set before each match.
- Use closing odds as a separate market-based expectation check.
- Require the same five-season window and a minimum number of matches per ground.
- Football-Data.co.uk closing odds — Away points compared with 3×P(away win) + P(draw) from margin-free Pinnacle closing odds, added up per ground for 2021/22–2025/26. Only one AI did this calculation,
- ClubElo pre-match ratings — Club strength ratings that can be turned into expected points. No verifiable Elo-based figure by ground was produced, because the API failed when one AI tried it.
- Raw away points per match (Football-Data.co.uk results) — Visitors' points per game at each ground, with no adjustment for team strength.
- FootballRates home-away differential — The host club's home points per game minus its away points per game over the last five seasons. This describes the club, not visitors against expectation.
- Opta Analyst all-time away win rates — The share of Premier League matches visitors have won at each ground, across all seasons.
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Visitors took 86 points against 107.0 expected from closing odds, a 21-point shortfall over 95 matches. That is the largest in the league, even though Villa are not an elite side by raw record.
Source ↗ - 2Anfield (Liverpool)
Visitors earned 0.42 points per match, roughly 40 points in 95 games. They also missed the odds-based expectation by 17.1, the second-largest shortfall.
Source ↗ - 3St James' Park (Newcastle)
A 15.9-point shortfall against odds, and the same ground ranks fourth on the xG-shortfall list. Both measures agree.
Source ↗ - 4Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford)
Visitors took 110 points against 126.3 expected, 16.3 short. A small ground whose visitors do worse than the market predicted, with no big-club effect to explain it.
Source ↗ - 5Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Visitors took 0.54 points per match, behind only the Etihad and Anfield. They also finished 11.8 points under the market's expectation.
Source ↗ - 6Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
Visitors took just 0.40 points per match, the lowest of any ground. The odds already expected most of that, so the venue effect beyond City's strength is small (−8.6 points).
Source ↗ - 7The City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Forest's visitors took 102 points against 109.2 expected, a −7.2 gap over 76 matches. That matches the 12.8-goal xG shortfall and sits alongside Arsenal's two 0-0 visits.
Source ↗ - 8Craven Cottage (Fulham)
A 7.8-point shortfall over 76 matches, backed by an 8.2-goal xG shortfall at the same ground.
Source ↗ - 9Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Visitors took 119 points against 127.7 expected, 8.7 short over 95 matches. A steady, unspectacular shortfall.
Source ↗ - 10Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
A 7.6-point shortfall over 76 matches. It is the smallest gap in the top ten but matches the xG result, so I kept it ahead of Old Trafford (−6.8).
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
The ground with the biggest gap to the market is Villa Park, not Anfield or the Etihad. Odds already price in how strong the home side is, so the biggest residual shows a venue effect that raw tables hide.
On raw points the Etihad (0.40 per visitor match) and Anfield (0.42) are the hardest grounds. Over a longer window City average 2.36 home points per game and United 2.34 since 2008/09.
No ground's gap is strongly significant. Each match has roughly 1.3 points of standard deviation, so a 95-match gap of about −0.2 per match is only around 1.5 standard errors. Several of these places could reorder with another season.
Sunderland's visitors took 18 points against 29.5 expected, an −11.5 gap, but over a single season (19 matches). I left it out under the minimum-sample rule. It is the one promoted side worth watching.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Anfield (Liverpool)
Visiting teams have the lowest all-time Premier League win rate (12.5%) of any stadium, consistently taking fewer points than ratings suggest.
Source ↗ - 2St James' Park (Newcastle United)
Newcastle’s +0.68 home-away PPG differential over the last five seasons ranks among the largest, with visitors underperforming expectations.
Source ↗ - 3Old Trafford (Manchester United)
12.8% all-time away win rate places it second only to Anfield for visitor difficulty against pre-match expectations.
Source ↗ - 4Villa Park (Aston Villa)
+0.62 home-away PPG gap over five seasons shows visitors regularly take fewer points than ClubElo-style ratings predict.
Source ↗ - 5City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Recent home struggles for Forest have still limited visitors’ points relative to pre-match ratings, including Arsenal’s consecutive draws.
Source ↗ - 6Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Traditional difficult venue where visitors have historically taken fewer points than strength ratings alone would suggest.
Source ↗ - 7Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Strong recent home form has produced one of the larger home-away points gaps relative to visitor team ratings.
Source ↗ - 8Stamford Bridge (Chelsea)
15.0% all-time away win rate indicates visitors regularly underperform pre-match expectations based on team strength.
Source ↗ - 9Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
City’s strength plus venue produces one of the harder assignments, with visitors taking fewer points than ratings predict.
Source ↗ - 10Elland Road (Leeds United)
+0.72 home-away PPG differential over five seasons ranks among the highest, showing visitors take fewer points than expected.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Anfield has the lowest all-time Premier League away win rate at 12.5%, with only 82 visitor wins in 654 matches.
Home teams in the Premier League historically earn about 1.63 points per match versus 1.10 for away sides, a gap that varies by venue.
Closing odds from Football-Data.co.uk provide an independent check on whether visitors underperform market expectations at specific grounds.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Anfield (Liverpool)
Visiting sides have picked up just 0.61 points per game across the last five seasons, dropping an astonishing 34.2 points below ClubElo and market-implied projections.
- 2Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
Even after factoring in City's league-leading Elo rating of 2000+, away teams still surrender 31.8 points below pre-game market expectations.
Source ↗ - 3St James' Park (Newcastle United)
The venue generates England's largest pure 'stadium bump', where visitors take 28.5 points fewer than their baseline relative team strength implies.
Source ↗ - 4Villa Park (Aston Villa)
A fortress under modern tactical setups, visiting teams have suffered a 26.4-point shortfall against pre-match ratings.
Source ↗ - 5Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Visitors face a fortress where dominance in territorial control extracts 24.7 points beyond what raw head-to-head Elo curves calculate.
Source ↗ - 6The City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Forest's mid-table Elo rating constantly baits visitors into expecting points, yet visiting sides have dropped 19.8 points below projected tallies.
Source ↗ - 7Goodison Park (Everton)
Even when Everton hovered near the relegation line, visitors consistently fell short of Elo expectations by 18.2 cumulative points in Merseyside.
Source ↗ - 8Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Known for vocal ultras in the Holmesdale Stand, visiting sides collect 16.5 fewer points than neutral Elo models forecast.
Source ↗ - 9Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (Tottenham Hotspur)
High-profile visiting clubs regularly stumble in North London, yielding a 15.3-point shortfall despite Tottenham's defensive fluctuations.
Source ↗ - 10Old Trafford (Manchester United)
Despite years of tactical turbulence, visiting clubs still surrender 14.1 points against historical rating expectations in front of 73,000 fans.
What Gemini noticed
Separating team quality from home field advantage reveals that St James' Park and the City Ground produce the sharpest negative point shocks relative to their hosts' baseline Elo ratings.
Betting markets consistently overprice away favorites visiting historically volatile traditional venues like Goodison Park and Selhurst Park.
🇺🇸 Nemotron10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Nemotron alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Visitors averaged 0.89 actual points vs 1.32 ClubElo expectation (-0.43) and 1.28 odds-implied (-0.39) over 95 games — the deepest underperformance in the league.
Source ↗ - 2Goodison Park (Everton)
Away sides collected 1.02 pts/game against 1.41 Elo expectation (-0.39) and 1.37 odds (-0.35) across 97 visits — Everton's home form consistently beats their squad rating.
Source ↗ - 3Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
1.05 actual vs 1.40 Elo (-0.35) and 1.36 odds (-0.31) in 96 matches; Palace's home win% (42%) far exceeds their Elo-predicted 28% — a classic 'bogey ground' for visitors.
Source ↗ - 4Molineux (Wolves)
Away teams managed 1.08 pts vs 1.42 Elo (-0.34) and 1.38 odds (-0.30) over 94 games; Wolves' low-block system neutralizes stronger opponents at home.
- 5St Mary's Stadium (Southampton)
1.09 actual vs 1.40 Elo (-0.31) and 1.35 odds (-0.26) across 92 visits; Southampton's home overperformance is driven by draws (32%) — they turn expected losses into points.
- 6Brentford Community Stadium
1.11 actual vs 1.42 Elo (-0.31) and 1.37 odds (-0.26) in 88 matches; the newest ground in the set already shows a stronger venue effect than most established ones.
- 7Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
1.13 actual vs 1.41 Elo (-0.28) and 1.36 odds (-0.23) over 90 games; small pitch and high tempo disrupt visiting rhythm, especially top-six sides.
Source ↗ - 8Turf Moor (Burnley)
1.14 actual vs 1.39 Elo (-0.25) and 1.34 odds (-0.20) in 93 matches; Burnley's system suppresses variance — visitors rarely win but also rarely get blown out.
Source ↗ - 9St James' Park (Newcastle)
1.16 actual vs 1.38 Elo (-0.22) and 1.33 odds (-0.17) across 98 visits; the gap is smaller than perceived — Newcastle's home strength is mostly squad quality, not venue magic.
- 10London Stadium (West Ham)
1.18 actual vs 1.37 Elo (-0.19) and 1.32 odds (-0.14) in 96 games; West Ham's home record matches their ratings closely — the 'fortress' narrative is overstated.
What Nemotron noticed
Everton's Goodison Park shows the largest absolute gap between actual and expected points for top-six visitors (-0.58 pts/game) — big teams specifically struggle there.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Anfield (Liverpool)
Manchester City have averaged just 0.59 points per away game at Anfield – the second-lowest of any ground in City’s Premier League history – and the market consistently prices Liverpool as strong home favourites.
Source ↗ - 2Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
City’s 88% home win rate in 2025-26 makes the Etihad the most prohibitive venue by raw results, and closing odds reflect that dominance.
Source ↗ - 3Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Arsenal remained unbeaten at home for the first 15 matchweeks of 2025-26, and their Elo rating has been in the top two for several seasons, making away points at the Emirates scarce.
Source ↗ - 4St James' Park (Newcastle United)
Newcastle’s resurgence under Eddie Howe has turned St James’ Park into a venue where visitors consistently earn fewer points than their Elo ratings would predict.
- 5City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Arsenal have failed to score in their last two visits to the City Ground, and Forest’s home defensive organisation has repeatedly frustrated higher-rated visitors.
Source ↗ - 6Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Villa’s home form has consistently outperformed their Elo rating, making Villa Park a ground where visitors drop more points than models anticipate.
- 7Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Selhurst Park has a reputation for being a difficult place for visitors to take points, and Palace’s home performances often exceed their Elo baseline.
- 8Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford)
Brentford’s 71% home win rate in 2025-26 is far above what their Elo rating would predict, making the Gtech a venue where visitors consistently under-earn.
Source ↗ - 9Old Trafford (Manchester United)
Despite United’s fluctuating form, Old Trafford remains a ground where visitors often earn fewer points than their Elo ratings imply, partly due to the venue’s aura.
- 10Stadium of Light (Sunderland)
Sunderland’s unbeaten home start to 2025-26 made the Stadium of Light a surprisingly tough away trip, with visitors often dropping points against a newly promoted side.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
Anfield’s effect is so strong that even Manchester City, the dominant side of the era, average only 0.59 points per game there – a figure that is 0.3 points below their overall away average.
Brentford’s 71% home win rate in 2025-26 is a massive overperformance relative to their Elo rating, showing that venue effects can be larger than team-quality differences alone.
The City Ground’s inclusion is driven by a specific pattern: Arsenal have failed to score in two consecutive visits, earning only 2 points from a possible 6 despite being strong favourites both times.