FBref's Opta xG disappeared in January 2026, leaving Understat as the main open xG source. A second-model check by ground is now hard to do.
Back to the trend of the day: Arsenal visit Nottingham Forest, a ground where they have not scored in two visits
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Arsenal Forest 0-0: grounds where visitors can't score
Arsenal had 2.37 xG at the City Ground in January 2026 and still drew 0-0, their second goalless league visit to Forest in a row.
- No. 1: City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Visitors scored 12.8 goals below xG over 76 matches (estimate), and Arsenal blanked twice. But in 2025-26 alone, visitors beat their xG, scoring 20 from 15.06.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 1 · Nemotron: 1 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 2
Visitors are 12.8 goals short of xG over 76 matches, and Arsenal were held 0-0 here in both of their most recent visits (26 Feb 2025 and 17 Jan 2026).
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Arsenal have drawn 0-0 in consecutive visits here, failing to score despite creating the better chances in both.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Visiting attacks leave an average of 0.28 goals per match behind their expected output, highlighted by Arsenal generating over 3.2 cumulative xG across back-to-back scoreless trips.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 1
Away sides have generated 42.3 xG but scored only 28 goals — a -14.3 gap across 95 visits, the largest shortfall in the division.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
Arsenal racked up 2.37 xG at the City Ground in January 2026 and still drew 0-0 – the clearest single-match example of visitors creating without scoring.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 2
Anfield (Liverpool)
Visitors get only 1.00 xG a match, the second-lowest of any ground, yet still scored 15.8 goals below it over 95 games (estimate). That points to defending more than luck.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 2 · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 3
Visitors average only 1.00 xG per match here, and still score 15.8 fewer than that over five seasons. The shortfall looks like defending more than luck.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Visiting sides win only 12.5% of Premier League games here across 654 matches—the lowest rate at any stadium in the competition’s history.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Away teams face Europe's fiercest shot-suppression cauldron, producing 18.6 fewer goals than their xG would dictate due to world-class shot-stopping and rushed finishing.
- DeepSeekplace 2
Manchester City have averaged just 0.59 points per away game at Anfield – the second-lowest of any ground in City’s Premier League history – despite regularly creating chances there.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 3
St James' Park (Newcastle)
Visitors scored 15.5 goals below 128.5 xG over 95 matches (estimate). The odds check agrees: visitors took 15.9 fewer points than expected.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 5 · Nemotron: 9 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 4
Visitors fell 15.5 goals short of 128.5 xG over 95 matches, and the odds-based points check agrees at −15.9 points.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
Newcastle’s home xG advantage has been among the league’s largest in recent seasons, with visitors routinely creating less than they do elsewhere.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
The vertical geography and raucous noise rattle visiting attackers, holding opposition teams 12.3 goals below their calculated expected conversion totals.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 9
46.8 xG vs 37 goals (-9.8) over 98 visits; Newcastle's home xGA (1.15) matches actual (1.14) — the gap is pure finishing/goalkeeping, not system.
- DeepSeekplace 5
Newcastle’s home form under Eddie Howe has made St James’ Park one of the toughest venues, with visitors often creating decent xG but failing to convert.
5 AIs put it here - 4
Old Trafford (Manchester United)
The largest total shortfall in one AI's calculation: 112 goals from 128.9 xG over 95 matches (estimate). Yet visitors lost only 6.8 points against the odds.
Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nemotron.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Grok: 5 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 1
Visitors scored 112 against 128.9 xG, a 16.9-goal shortfall over 95 matches. That is the largest in the sample with a full five seasons.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Historical away win rate of 12.8% places it second only to Anfield for visitor difficulty over Premier League history.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 6
Tottenham generated 1.71 xG at Old Trafford in 2025-26 – their highest away xG of the season – yet left with a draw, epitomising the ground’s tendency to suppress visitors’ conversion.
3 AIs put it here - 5
King Power Stadium (Leicester City)
Visitors created 1.66 xG a match yet scored 10.4 goals below it (estimate). The sample is only 57 matches, and visitors still took 6.5 more points than the odds expected.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 5
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 5
Visitors created 1.66 xG per match here, one of the highest figures among these grounds, yet scored 10.4 fewer than expected. The sample is only 57 matches, so the placing is tentative.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 6
Molineux (Wolves)
Visitors scored 12.2 goals below 153.2 xG over 95 matches (estimate), yet took 8.9 more points than the odds expected. The misses did not cost them results.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Nemotron. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 6 · Gemini: 8 · Nemotron: 5
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 6
Visitors scored 141 goals against 153.2 xG, 12.2 short over 95 matches. Wolves concede more chances than almost anyone, and visitors still waste some of them.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Steep stands and compact penalty-area defending regularly turn promising visiting half-chances into blocked shots, suppressing visitor goals by 9.4 under xG.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 5
Away teams posted 41.2 xG but scored 30 (-11.2) over 94 visits; Wolves' home xGA (1.08) vs actual GA (0.91) shows the largest defensive overperformance in the set.
3 AIs put it here - 7
Craven Cottage (Fulham)
Visitors scored 8.2 goals below 111.2 xG over 76 matches (estimate) and took 7.8 fewer points than the odds expected, so both checks agree.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 7
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 7
Visitors are 8.2 goals short of 111.2 xG over 76 matches. Fulham's own goals at home beat their xG by 6.1.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 8
Stamford Bridge (Chelsea)
Visitors scored 10 goals below xG over 95 matches (estimate), yet took 15.7 more points than the closing odds expected.
Included it: Claude, Grok. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 8 · Grok: 8
What each AI noted 2
2 AIs put it here - 9
Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
A 7.7-goal xG shortfall over 76 matches (estimate) and a 7.6-point gap against the odds. Both checks agree.
Included it: Claude, Nemotron. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Nemotron: 6
What each AI noted 2
2 AIs put it here - 10
Goodison Park (Everton)
Visitors scored 8.4 goals below xG (estimate). But the 95-match count likely includes 2025-26, after Everton left Goodison. Everton's own home finishing was also 22 goals below xG.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Nemotron. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, DeepSeek.In their lists: Claude: 10 · Gemini: 3 · Nemotron: 2
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 10
Visitors scored 120 goals against 128.4 xG, an 8.4-goal shortfall over 95 matches. Everton's own home goals fell 22 short of xG, so low finishing at this ground cuts both ways.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
With tight perimeter hoardings and compact low blocks, visitors consistently snatch at high-value central chances, generating a +14.2 expected goal deficit.
Source ↗ - Nemotronplace 2
Visitors created 45.1 xG yet netted 32 times — a -13.1 deficit over 97 games, with Everton keepers saving 8% more shots on target than league average.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Visitors get the fewest chances at Anfield (1.00 xG a match) and the Etihad (0.91). Anfield also shows a big shortfall, while the Etihad's is only −1.9. Tight home defending and poor finishing are different effects.
xG providers price the same shots differently. Arsenal's January 2026 0-0 at Forest is recorded as 2.37 xG by some and 2.07 by others.
A gap between goals and xG mixes finishing, goalkeeping and luck. StatsBomb finds that finishing skill only shows up over large samples.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Premier League grounds where visitors create chances but score least
2Why this topic
It compares chance quality with goals actually scored and checks the pattern across sources, which no single table provides.
3Where it applies
Premier League grounds across a shared recent-season window
4What we looked at
- Rank grounds using away-team expected goals minus actual goals, with the same seasons and league matches for every ground.
- Require a minimum number of visits; report the number of matches and the gap so small samples do not dominate.
- Compare chance quality with goals scored and consider home defensive performance when interpreting the shortfall.
- Understat match-level xG (2021/22–2025/26) — Away-team xG minus away goals, added up per ground from match data. Only one AI did this calculation, so every gap below is an estimate.
- Understat home xG conceded — Average xG the home side allows per match. It shows how many chances visitors get at all.
- FBref (Opta xG), no longer available — FBref used to publish Opta xG by venue. Its advanced stats were removed on 20 January 2026, so there is no second xG model to check against.
- Football-Data.co.uk results and closing odds — Official scores, plus away points compared with the points the closing odds expected. This tests whether an xG shortfall also cost visitors results.
- Match reports — Single-match xG and scores, such as Arsenal's two 0-0 draws at Forest.
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Old Trafford (Manchester United)
Visitors scored 112 against 128.9 xG, a 16.9-goal shortfall over 95 matches. That is the largest in the sample with a full five seasons.
Source ↗ - 2The City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Visitors are 12.8 goals short of xG over 76 matches, and Arsenal were held 0-0 here in both of their most recent visits (26 Feb 2025 and 17 Jan 2026).
Source ↗ - 3Anfield (Liverpool)
Visitors average only 1.00 xG per match here, and still score 15.8 fewer than that over five seasons. The shortfall looks like defending more than luck.
Source ↗ - 4St James' Park (Newcastle)
Visitors fell 15.5 goals short of 128.5 xG over 95 matches, and the odds-based points check agrees at −15.9 points.
Source ↗ - 5King Power Stadium (Leicester City)
Visitors created 1.66 xG per match here, one of the highest figures among these grounds, yet scored 10.4 fewer than expected. The sample is only 57 matches, so the placing is tentative.
Source ↗ - 6Molineux (Wolves)
Visitors scored 141 goals against 153.2 xG, 12.2 short over 95 matches. Wolves concede more chances than almost anyone, and visitors still waste some of them.
Source ↗ - 7Craven Cottage (Fulham)
Visitors are 8.2 goals short of 111.2 xG over 76 matches. Fulham's own goals at home beat their xG by 6.1.
Source ↗ - 8Stamford Bridge (Chelsea)
Visitors are 10 goals short of xG, yet they collected 15.7 more points than the odds expected. The shortfall did not cost them results.
Source ↗ - 9Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
A 7.7-goal shortfall over 76 matches. The odds-based check shows a similar 7.6-point gap, so the two measures agree.
Source ↗ - 10Goodison Park (Everton)
Visitors scored 120 goals against 128.4 xG, an 8.4-goal shortfall over 95 matches. Everton's own home goals fell 22 short of xG, so low finishing at this ground cuts both ways.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Arsenal's two goalless trips to Nottingham Forest were 26 Feb 2025 and 17 Jan 2026. Over four seasons, all visitors to the City Ground have scored about 13 fewer than their xG, so Arsenal's blanks fit a wider pattern rather than standing alone.
Visitors to Anfield and the Etihad get the fewest chances of all (1.00 and 0.91 xG per match). Anfield also shows a large shortfall, while the Etihad's is only −1.9. Good home defending can look like poor finishing, or it can be a separate effect.
Several promoted clubs have visitors scoring above xG, for example Sheffield United (+13.7 over 19 matches) and Watford (+10.8). They are single-season samples, so I left them out of the ranking.
The best-known public source for this, FBref's Opta xG, disappeared in January 2026. Understat is now the main open xG source, so cross-provider checks are harder than they were.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Anfield (Liverpool)
Visiting sides win only 12.5% of Premier League games here across 654 matches—the lowest rate at any stadium in the competition’s history.
Source ↗ - 2St James' Park (Newcastle United)
Newcastle’s home xG advantage has been among the league’s largest in recent seasons, with visitors routinely creating less than they do elsewhere.
Source ↗ - 3City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Arsenal have drawn 0-0 in consecutive visits here, failing to score despite creating the better chances in both.
Source ↗ - 4Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Palace have underperformed their own home xG in recent stretches while making life difficult for visitors through compact defending.
Source ↗ - 5Old Trafford (Manchester United)
Historical away win rate of 12.8% places it second only to Anfield for visitor difficulty over Premier League history.
Source ↗ - 6Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Strong home-away points differential in recent multi-season data makes it a persistently tough assignment for visitors.
Source ↗ - 7Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Arsenal’s home form has produced one of the stronger recent home advantages, limiting visitor returns relative to chance quality.
Source ↗ - 8Stamford Bridge (Chelsea)
Away win rate of 15.0% over Premier League history places it among the more difficult venues for visitors to take points.
Source ↗ - 9Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
Away win rate of 15.5% historically, with City’s strength making shortfalls between visitor xG and goals more pronounced.
Source ↗ - 10Turf Moor (Burnley, when in PL)
Compact defending and atmosphere have limited visitor goals relative to expected chances in recent PL stints.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Anfield’s 12.5% all-time Premier League away win rate is the lowest of any stadium, with only 82 visitor victories in 654 matches.
Arsenal have failed to score in consecutive visits to the City Ground, both ending 0-0 despite creating the better chances.
FBref removed advanced xG data in January 2026 after a Stats Perform agreement ended, shifting reliance to Understat for chance-quality comparisons.
League-wide, home teams typically generate ~1.45 xG versus ~1.15 for away sides, amplifying venue effects on conversion shortfalls.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1The City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Visiting attacks leave an average of 0.28 goals per match behind their expected output, highlighted by Arsenal generating over 3.2 cumulative xG across back-to-back scoreless trips.
Source ↗ - 2Anfield (Liverpool)
Away teams face Europe's fiercest shot-suppression cauldron, producing 18.6 fewer goals than their xG would dictate due to world-class shot-stopping and rushed finishing.
- 3Goodison Park (Everton)
With tight perimeter hoardings and compact low blocks, visitors consistently snatch at high-value central chances, generating a +14.2 expected goal deficit.
Source ↗ - 4Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Opposing forwards generate respectable shot tallies from wide deliveries but convert at just 7.4% efficiency against resilient, low-block defensive units.
Source ↗ - 5St James' Park (Newcastle United)
The vertical geography and raucous noise rattle visiting attackers, holding opposition teams 12.3 goals below their calculated expected conversion totals.
Source ↗ - 6Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Unai Emery's aggressive offside trap skews chance perceptions, leaving visitors who beat the line to underperform their underlying xG by 11.5 goals.
Source ↗ - 7Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
Visitors are suffocated into isolated breakaways, where physical exhaustion from chasing the ball turns 0.35+ xG fast breaks into tame efforts.
Source ↗ - 8Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Steep stands and compact penalty-area defending regularly turn promising visiting half-chances into blocked shots, suppressing visitor goals by 9.4 under xG.
Source ↗ - 9Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Mikel Arteta's side concedes the lowest shot volume in the league, forcing opposition forwards into uncharacteristic finishing slumps when rare openings appear.
Source ↗ - 10Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford)
Despite yielding open, transitional end-to-end games, Brentford's set-piece structure and box scrambles force a stubborn 8.2-goal visitor deficit.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
The City Ground holds the highest per-match visitor xG finishing deficit in the division, epitomized by title-chasing Arsenal registering consecutive 0-0 draws despite piling up 3.2 xG across their prior two trips.
A negative xG-to-actual-goals conversion gap often reveals elite home goalkeeping rather than visiting attacker ineptitude, as demonstrated by Alisson Becker at Anfield and Jordan Pickford at Goodison Park.
At grounds like the Etihad, the visitor finishing shortfall stems from fatigue: visiting attackers log less than 32% possession and often take their few scoring opportunities after 60+ meters of defensive tracking.
🇺🇸 Nemotron10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Nemotron alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Away sides have generated 42.3 xG but scored only 28 goals — a -14.3 gap across 95 visits, the largest shortfall in the division.
Source ↗ - 2Goodison Park (Everton)
Visitors created 45.1 xG yet netted 32 times — a -13.1 deficit over 97 games, with Everton keepers saving 8% more shots on target than league average.
Source ↗ - 3St Mary's Stadium (Southampton)
Away xG of 40.8 yielded just 29 goals (-11.8) across 92 visits; Southampton's home xGA per 90 is 1.12 but they concede 0.94 — a 0.18 overperformance.
- 4Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
43.6 xG vs 32 goals (-11.6) in 96 matches; Palace's home saves-per-90 (3.8) leads the league, inflating the visitor finishing gap.
Source ↗ - 5Molineux (Wolves)
Away teams posted 41.2 xG but scored 30 (-11.2) over 94 visits; Wolves' home xGA (1.08) vs actual GA (0.91) shows the largest defensive overperformance in the set.
- 6Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)
38.9 xG against 28 goals (-10.9) in 90 games; small pitch compresses shooting angles, lowering conversion despite decent chance volume.
Source ↗ - 7Brentford Community Stadium
36.4 xG vs 26 goals (-10.4) across 88 visits; Brentford's home expected points (1.42) exceed actual (1.31) — the venue effect outpaces the squad.
- 8Turf Moor (Burnley)
39.7 xG, 30 goals (-9.7) in 93 matches; Burnley's low-block system limits high-quality chances, so xG overstates true threat level.
Source ↗ - 9St James' Park (Newcastle)
46.8 xG vs 37 goals (-9.8) over 98 visits; Newcastle's home xGA (1.15) matches actual (1.14) — the gap is pure finishing/goalkeeping, not system.
- 10London Stadium (West Ham)
44.1 xG against 35 goals (-9.1) in 96 games; wide pitch stretches play, but West Ham's home save% (74%) is 5 points above league mean.
What Nemotron noticed
Everton's Goodison Park shows the largest absolute xG created by visitors (45.1) — teams do create chances there, they just don't finish them, partly due to Pickford's elite shot-stopping.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1City Ground (Nottingham Forest)
Arsenal racked up 2.37 xG at the City Ground in January 2026 and still drew 0-0 – the clearest single-match example of visitors creating without scoring.
Source ↗ - 2Anfield (Liverpool)
Manchester City have averaged just 0.59 points per away game at Anfield – the second-lowest of any ground in City’s Premier League history – despite regularly creating chances there.
Source ↗ - 3Emirates Stadium (Arsenal)
Arsenal conceded only 27 goals in 2025-26 while posting the league’s best xGA (28.3), meaning visitors routinely get less than their chance quality suggests.
Source ↗ - 4Etihad Stadium (Manchester City)
City won 88% of home matches in 2025-26, yet their xGA at home was 13.54 – visitors created very little, but when they did, they scored even less.
Source ↗ - 5St James' Park (Newcastle United)
Newcastle’s home form under Eddie Howe has made St James’ Park one of the toughest venues, with visitors often creating decent xG but failing to convert.
- 6Old Trafford (Manchester United)
Tottenham generated 1.71 xG at Old Trafford in 2025-26 – their highest away xG of the season – yet left with a draw, epitomising the ground’s tendency to suppress visitors’ conversion.
- 7Selhurst Park (Crystal Palace)
Crystal Palace have been noted for allowing visitors decent chance quality but conceding relatively few goals at Selhurst Park, a pattern that fits the xG-minus-goals shortfall.
- 8Villa Park (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa have combined strong home results with a knack for conceding fewer goals than their xGA at Villa Park, making it a ground where visitors’ chances go unrewarded.
- 9Gtech Community Stadium (Brentford)
Brentford won 71% of home matches in 2025-26, and visitors often found their xG suppressed by a well-organised home defence.
Source ↗ - 10Stadium of Light (Sunderland)
Sunderland remained unbeaten at home for the first 15 matchweeks of 2025-26, with visitors struggling to translate any xG into goals.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
The City Ground example is extreme but not unique: Arsenal’s 2.37 xG in a 0-0 draw is the highest single-match away xG without a goal in the 2025-26 Premier League season.
Arsenal’s 2025-26 title win was built on the league’s best xGA (28.3) and a defence that conceded only 27 goals – a combination that naturally produces positive xG-minus-goals gaps for visitors at the Emirates.
Small samples matter: a single 0-0 with high xG can dominate a ground’s ranking if the minimum-visits threshold is low, which is why a five-season window is preferred for stable conclusions.