Money and the market disagreed over Dortmund. Transfermarkt valued Dortmund's squad at 7.4 times Bodø's, but closing odds made it close to a coin toss: Pinnacle put Bodø near 37%, and another odds snapshot had them at 2.95 to Dortmund's 2.18.
Back to the trend of the hour: Small Norwegian club stuns Dortmund in the Champions League
Poly Rating · from the trend of the hour
Biggest Champions League Upsets by Squad Value (2016-2026)
Sheriff Tiraspol's whole squad was valued at €12.38m, about 64 times less than Real Madrid's €793.5m, yet it won 2-1 at the Bernabéu in 2021 with a late winner after Madrid had more than 30 shots.
- No. 1: Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (2021)
- 10 places
- 5 AIs
01Final list
5 AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (2021)
Unlikely on every board: about 64 times poorer, roughly 3-4% to win in the betting, and out-created by about 3 xG. The win came against the run of play.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, MiMo.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 1 · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 1 · MiMo: 1
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 4
Real had 31 attempts and was -1000 to win, with Sheriff at +2800 (about a 3.4% implied chance), and Sheriff scored in the 89th minute.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
Madrid had 31 shots to Sheriff's four; a 90th-minute strike still won it at the Bernabéu.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Sheriff's entire €12.38m squad was valued at less than Madrid's backup goalkeeper, yet conquered the Bernabéu on a 2.4% Elo probability.
- Kimiplace 1
A squad worth about $15m beat the ~$900m holders at the Bernabéu after closing at +2700 — the biggest priced underdog to win a Champions League match in three seasons.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 1
Real Madrid's 35 shots and 3.97 xG still lost to a Thill screamer in the 89th from a Sheriff squad listed at €30.63m
5 of 5 - 2
Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City (2026)
About 20 times poorer on two separate snapshots and about 14% in the market. Whether Bodø also won the xG depends on the provider: StatMuse says +0.20, ScoutingStats −0.05.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi, MiMo. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 4 · Kimi: 2 · MiMo: 2
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 1
A squad worth €57m beat a side valued at about €1.29bn, roughly 23 times more, and City's Haaland alone is valued at €200m.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 4
City conceded three at Aspmyra in a match whose reported temperature was 1°C.
- Kimiplace 2
A £49m squad from a town of 55,000 didn't just beat a €1.5bn squad 3-1 — it outplayed it with high pressing.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 2
A town of about 55,000 beat a squad worth £1.14bn (or €1.3bn, depending on the source) after being given a 13.8% win chance
Source ↗
4 of 5 - 3
Bodø/Glimt vs Inter, playoff tie: 3-1 and 2-1 (2026)
A knockout tie: about 11.7 times poorer, Bodø knocked out the previous season's finalist 5-2 on aggregate. The San Siro win was priced at 9%, and Inter edged the xG both nights.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, MiMo. Did not include: Gemini, Kimi.In their lists: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 3 · MiMo: 5
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 3
The 2-1 away win finished a 5-2 aggregate tie, and AP described it as one of the biggest upsets in Champions League history.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
The second away win completed a 5–2 aggregate elimination of the previous season's finalists.
- MiMoplace 5
The knockout tie opened 3-1 to the Arctic club, with three different scorers before the hour mark was out of sight
Source ↗
3 of 5 - 4
Qarabağ 3-2 Benfica (2025)
Qarabağ came back from 2-0 down in Lisbon against a squad about 14 times richer (a reported figure, not a match-day one) at 6% in the market. They won the xG 1.56–1.20, so the win was earned.
Included it: ChatGPT, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, Gemini, MiMo.In their lists: ChatGPT: 2 · Kimi: 3
2 of 5 - 5
Atlético Madrid 1-2 Bodø/Glimt (2026)
An away win at the Metropolitano: about 10 times poorer on two snapshots and 10.6% in the market. The xG was almost level (2.10–2.04), so this was earned, not stolen.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, MiMo. Did not include: Gemini, Kimi.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 5 · MiMo: 4
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 5
This was a 10x gap on value (€584m vs €57m), and the win came with Glimt already due to finish 23rd.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 5
A comeback at the Metropolitano clinched Bodø/Glimt's knockout play-off place.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 4
Bodo did not only win in the Arctic — they went to Madrid and turned Sørloth's opener into two goals for themselves
Source ↗
3 of 5 - 6
Young Boys 2-1 Manchester United (2021)
The market gave Young Boys 12.5% and they won the xG 1.49–0.49. But United played most of the match with ten men, and Young Boys' match-day squad value was never verified.
Included it: ChatGPT, Gemini, MiMo. Did not include: Claude, Kimi.In their lists: ChatGPT: 7 · Gemini: 3 · MiMo: 7
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 7
Ronaldo scored first; United's 35th-minute dismissal changed the match before a stoppage-time winner.
- Geminiplace 3
Young Boys restricted Cristiano Ronaldo and a €937m powerhouse to two total shots, posting a +0.94 xG margin on artificial turf.
- MiMoplace 7
Ronaldo scored first; United then had a man sent off and lost to Siebatcheu in the 90+5
3 of 5no source given - 7
Maccabi Haifa 2-0 Juventus (2022)
Four answers picked it, but its numbers don't agree: the market chance is 20.4% in one source and 12.5% in another. The ~€20m vs ~€500m value gap is a broadcast estimate.
Included it: ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, MiMo. Did not include: Claude.In their lists: ChatGPT: 8 · Gemini: 7 · Kimi: 6 · MiMo: 8
What each AI noted 4
- ChatGPTplace 8
Two Omer Atzili goals ended Maccabi Haifa's 20-year wait for a group-stage win.
- Geminiplace 7
Omer Atzili's first-half double drove a +0.76 xG dominance for a €25m squad against Massimiliano Allegri's European regulars.
- Kimiplace 6
Maccabi Haifa's first Champions League win in 20 years came 2-0 against Juventus, with both goals from Omer Atzili.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 8
The Israeli champions kept a clean sheet against Juventus in Haifa — a 2-0 that was not a smash-and-grab
4 of 5 - 8
Pafos 1-0 Villarreal (2025)
Single-source estimate: about 10 times poorer (season-start figure) and 9.6% in the market. Villarreal had double the xG (1.56–0.75), so Pafos won against the run of play.
Included it: ChatGPT. Did not include: Claude, Gemini, Kimi, MiMo.In their lists: ChatGPT: 6
What each AI noted 1
- ChatGPTplace 6
Villarreal generated more than twice Pafos's xG, yet left Cyprus without a goal.
Source ↗
1 of 5 - 9
Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (2026)
The money gap here is the smallest on this list at 7.4x (€587.90m vs €79.18m), and so is the market gap: Pinnacle gave Bodø about 37%. Bodø also won the xG 1.13–0.78.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, MiMo.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 10 · Gemini: 2 · Kimi: 7 · MiMo: 3
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 7
Dortmund (€587.9m) are 7.4x Glimt (€79.18m), and the only goal was Sjøvold in the 52nd minute.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
The squads were valued more than sevenfold apart, but the closing market saw a much closer contest.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
North of the Arctic Circle on artificial turf, an €79.2m Norwegian squad out-created the 2024 finalists (+0.07 xG) to capture three league-phase points.
- Kimiplace 7
€79m beat €588m on Wednesday: a 7.4x squad-value gap closed by one 52nd-minute Fredrik Sjøvold goal inside the Arctic Circle.
- MiMoplace 3
€79.18m against €587.90m — about 7.4 times the money — decided by one Sjøvold finish in the 52nd minute
Source ↗
5 of 5 - 10
Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Chelsea (2022)
The reigning champions won the xG 0.87–0.62 and still lost to Oršić's early goal. The ~9x value gap and 10.5% odds come from one answer only, so treat them as estimates.
Included it: Claude, Gemini. Did not include: ChatGPT, Kimi, MiMo.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Gemini: 4
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 9
Chelsea, the reigning champions, lost despite having the higher xG (0.87 to 0.62), so the win came against the run of play.
- Geminiplace 4
Mislav Oršić's 13th-minute solo counterattack dismantled an €861m squad and triggered Thomas Tuchel's dismissal the following morning.
2 of 5
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Sheriff's win was theft on any xG model. StatMuse had Madrid ahead 3.23–0.19 and xGscore 3.97–0.81, with 35 shots to 6.
Manchester City's squad value for the Bodø match is quoted as €1.29bn, £1.14bn, £1.058bn and €1.5bn, depending on the snapshot date and currency. The gap stays at roughly 20x either way.
Transfermarkt's own Inter–Bodø figures differ: the article says €667.3m vs €57.1m, while its live club widgets later showed €730.10m vs €81.28m.
A scoreline upset is not always a chances upset. Feyenoord beat Bayern 3-0 in January 2025 with 20% possession while losing the xG 1.66–2.47.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Champions League upsets by a squad worth barely more than one opposing star, measured by money, odds and chances
2Why this topic
It is the only list that puts the money gap, the odds and the chances created side by side, so readers can see which upsets were unlikely on every measure and which only look shocking because of the club names.
3Where it applies
UEFA Champions League, 2016/17 through October 15, 2026 (group, league-phase and knockout matches)
4What we looked at
- Ratio of the beaten club's total squad market value to the winner's on match day; the losing squad must be worth at least twice as much
- Pre-match chance of the underdog winning, taken from closing bookmaker odds and checked against ClubElo's pre-match win probability
- The winner's expected-goals margin, from one xG provider used for every match, to show whether the win was earned on chances or came against the run of play
- Whether the win came in a league-phase or group match or in a knockout tie, shown next to each entry and not hidden inside a single score
- Transfermarkt — Estimated squad market values (valuations, not wages or fees). Match-day values exist only for some matches, and the others use season or tie-week snapshots.
- InfoBetting — Archived average closing win/draw/loss odds, turned into the underdog's win chance with the bookmaker margin removed
- The Odds Gap (Pinnacle) — Timestamped last pre-kickoff prices, used for the October 2026 Dortmund match
- Elofootball — A separate Elo model's pre-match win probability. This is not ClubElo, whose pre-match figures no answer retrieved and checked.
5Who ranked
5 AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, MiMo.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City (league phase, 20 Jan 2026)
A squad worth €57m beat a side valued at about €1.29bn, roughly 23 times more, and City's Haaland alone is valued at €200m.
Source ↗ - 2Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Inter (playoff first leg, Feb 2026)
Marcus Thuram alone (€60m) is valued above Glimt's whole squad, and Inter had been the 2025 finalist.
Source ↗ - 3Bodø/Glimt 2-1 Inter (playoff second leg at San Siro, Feb 2026)
The 2-1 away win finished a 5-2 aggregate tie, and AP described it as one of the biggest upsets in Champions League history.
Source ↗ - 4Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (group, 28 Sep 2021)
Real had 31 attempts and was -1000 to win, with Sheriff at +2800 (about a 3.4% implied chance), and Sheriff scored in the 89th minute.
Source ↗ - 5Bodø/Glimt 2-1 Atlético Madrid (league phase, Jan 2026)
This was a 10x gap on value (€584m vs €57m), and the win came with Glimt already due to finish 23rd.
Source ↗ - 6Bodø/Glimt 3-0 Sporting CP (round-of-16 first leg, 11 Mar 2026)
A 3-0 knockout win at a €464m side, with Sporting about 8x Glimt's value.
Source ↗ - 7Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (league phase, 14 Oct 2026)
Dortmund (€587.9m) are 7.4x Glimt (€79.18m), and the only goal was Sjøvold in the 52nd minute.
Source ↗ - 8Ajax 4-1 Real Madrid (round-of-16 second leg, 5 Mar 2019)
The holders were beaten 4-1 at the Bernabéu and went out 5-3 on aggregate, a knockout upset by a far poorer squad.
- 9Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Chelsea (group, 6 Sep 2022)
Chelsea, the reigning champions, lost despite having the higher xG (0.87 to 0.62), so the win came against the run of play.
- 10Bodø/Glimt 2-2 draws and the 2025/26 run: the league-phase comparison case (Dortmund 2-2 Glimt, 10 Dec 2025)
A draw is not a win, so this is a control entry: the same two clubs drew 2-2 in Dortmund after Glimt twice came from behind.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Six of the ten entries are Bodø/Glimt matches. On the Sky/Transfermarkt snapshot their squad (€57m) was the cheapest in the 2025/26 round of 16, and Qarabağ (€27m) was cheaper still among the playoff losers.
Sheriff's win over Real Madrid was priced at +2800 (about 3.4% implied) and came with 31 Real attempts. Dinamo's win over Chelsea went the other way on xG (0.62 to 0.87).
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Sheriff Tiraspol over Real Madrid (2021)
Madrid had 31 shots to Sheriff's four; a 90th-minute strike still won it at the Bernabéu.
Source ↗ - 2Qarabağ over Benfica (2025)
Down 2–0 after 16 minutes in Lisbon, Qarabağ became the side with the higher xG.
Source ↗ - 3Bodø/Glimt over Inter in Milan (2026)
The second away win completed a 5–2 aggregate elimination of the previous season's finalists.
- 4Bodø/Glimt over Manchester City (2026)
City conceded three at Aspmyra in a match whose reported temperature was 1°C.
- 5Bodø/Glimt over Atlético Madrid (2026)
A comeback at the Metropolitano clinched Bodø/Glimt's knockout play-off place.
Source ↗ - 6Pafos over Villarreal (2025)
Villarreal generated more than twice Pafos's xG, yet left Cyprus without a goal.
Source ↗ - 7Young Boys over Manchester United (2021)
Ronaldo scored first; United's 35th-minute dismissal changed the match before a stoppage-time winner.
- 8Maccabi Haifa over Juventus (2022)
Two Omer Atzili goals ended Maccabi Haifa's 20-year wait for a group-stage win.
- 9Bodø/Glimt over Inter at Aspmyra (2026)
Three goals in Norway set up the aggregate upset that Bodø/Glimt then completed in Milan.
- 10Bodø/Glimt over Borussia Dortmund (2026)
The squads were valued more than sevenfold apart, but the closing market saw a much closer contest.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
Dortmund's 2026 defeat shows why squad value alone misleads: Pinnacle's closing prices put Bodø/Glimt's win chance near 37%.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2–1 Real Madrid (Sep 28, 2021)
Sheriff's entire €12.38m squad was valued at less than Madrid's backup goalkeeper, yet conquered the Bernabéu on a 2.4% Elo probability.
- 2FK Bodø/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund (Oct 14, 2026)
North of the Arctic Circle on artificial turf, an €79.2m Norwegian squad out-created the 2024 finalists (+0.07 xG) to capture three league-phase points.
- 3BSC Young Boys 2–1 Manchester United (Sep 14, 2021)
Young Boys restricted Cristiano Ronaldo and a €937m powerhouse to two total shots, posting a +0.94 xG margin on artificial turf.
- 4GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Chelsea (Sep 6, 2022)
Mislav Oršić's 13th-minute solo counterattack dismantled an €861m squad and triggered Thomas Tuchel's dismissal the following morning.
- 5Shakhtar Donetsk 3–2 Real Madrid (Oct 21, 2020)
Missing 10 first-team players due to COVID-19, Shakhtar's youth academy stormed to a 3-0 halftime lead in Madrid against an €855m squad.
- 6Red Star Belgrade 2–0 Liverpool (Nov 6, 2018)
Milan Pavkov's seven-minute brace humbled Jürgen Klopp's eventual tournament winners at the Marakana despite a pre-match Elo win forecast below 7%.
- 7Maccabi Haifa 2–0 Juventus (Oct 11, 2022)
Omer Atzili's first-half double drove a +0.76 xG dominance for a €25m squad against Massimiliano Allegri's European regulars.
- 8LOSC Lille 1–0 Real Madrid (Oct 2, 2024)
Jonathan David's penalty ended Real Madrid's 36-game unbeaten streak against a squad whose front line alone commanded over €450m in market value.
- 9Villarreal CF 1–0 Bayern Munich (Apr 6, 2022)
In a knockout quarter-final, Unai Emery's side conceded zero big chances while generating a +0.15 xG margin to eliminate Julian Nagelsmann's heavyweights.
- 10Aston Villa 1–0 Bayern Munich (Oct 2, 2024)
Jhon Durán's 79th-minute lob over Manuel Neuer recreated Villa's 1982 European Cup final triumph on their first home Champions League night in 42 years.
What Gemini noticed
The xG paradox of giant-killings: Half of the ten greatest Champions League financial upsets produced negative xG margins for the winning underdog, demonstrating that extreme financial upsets often depend on world-class goalkeeping and low-probability finishing (such as Sébastien Thill's 89th-minute volley with an individual xG of 0.03).
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (2021)
A squad worth about $15m beat the ~$900m holders at the Bernabéu after closing at +2700 — the biggest priced underdog to win a Champions League match in three seasons.
Source ↗ - 2Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City (2026)
A £49m squad from a town of 55,000 didn't just beat a €1.5bn squad 3-1 — it outplayed it with high pressing.
Source ↗ - 3Qarabağ 3-2 Benfica (2025)
Two goals down inside 20 minutes in Lisbon, the Azerbaijani debutants won their first ever Champions League match with an 86th-minute winner.
Source ↗ - 4Roma 3-0 Barcelona (2018)
Needing exactly a 3-0 after losing the first leg 4-1, Roma produced exactly a 3-0 — one of only a handful of three-goal first-leg deficits ever overturned.
- 5Ajax 4-1 Real Madrid (2019)
Real had won three straight Champions Leagues; Ajax, who started their season in July qualifiers, won 4-1 at the Bernabéu to knock the holders out 5-3.
Source ↗ - 6Maccabi Haifa 2-0 Juventus (2022)
Maccabi Haifa's first Champions League win in 20 years came 2-0 against Juventus, with both goals from Omer Atzili.
Source ↗ - 7Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (2026)
€79m beat €588m on Wednesday: a 7.4x squad-value gap closed by one 52nd-minute Fredrik Sjøvold goal inside the Arctic Circle.
- 8FC Copenhagen 4-3 Manchester United (2023)
United led 2-0 through Højlund, lost Rashford to a red card, and lost 4-3 in a breathless seven-goal night at Parken.
Source ↗ - 9Lille 1-0 Real Madrid (2024)
The holders hadn't lost in any competition since January — then a VAR-awarded Jonathan David penalty in northern France ended the run.
Source ↗ - 10Galatasaray 1-0 Liverpool (2025)
Liverpool had 62% of the ball at Rams Park and left with nothing but an Osimhen penalty in the scoreline and two injured stars.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
Sheriff's win at the Bernabéu closed at +2700 at Caesars — ESPN called it the largest underdog price to win a Champions League match in three seasons, a market signal that matched the ~66:1 squad-value gap.
Knockout upsets weigh heavier than league-phase ones: Roma's 3-0 over Barcelona in 2018 remains one of the very few three-goal first-leg deficits ever overturned in the competition.
🇨🇳 MiMo10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by MiMo alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (2021)
Real Madrid's 35 shots and 3.97 xG still lost to a Thill screamer in the 89th from a Sheriff squad listed at €30.63m
- 2Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City (2026)
A town of about 55,000 beat a squad worth £1.14bn (or €1.3bn, depending on the source) after being given a 13.8% win chance
Source ↗ - 3Bodø/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (2026)
€79.18m against €587.90m — about 7.4 times the money — decided by one Sjøvold finish in the 52nd minute
Source ↗ - 4Atlético Madrid 1-2 Bodø/Glimt (2026)
Bodo did not only win in the Arctic — they went to Madrid and turned Sørloth's opener into two goals for themselves
Source ↗ - 5Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Inter Milan (2026 playoff)
The knockout tie opened 3-1 to the Arctic club, with three different scorers before the hour mark was out of sight
Source ↗ - 6Inter Milan 1-2 Bodø/Glimt (2026 playoff, 2nd leg)
Winning the first leg in the Arctic was not enough — Bodo then won at San Siro too and took the knockout tie
Source ↗ - 7Young Boys 2-1 Manchester United (2021)
Ronaldo scored first; United then had a man sent off and lost to Siebatcheu in the 90+5
- 8Maccabi Haifa 2-0 Juventus (2022)
The Israeli champions kept a clean sheet against Juventus in Haifa — a 2-0 that was not a smash-and-grab
- 9Real Madrid 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk (2020)
Shakhtar went to Madrid with 10 players missing and still led 3-0 before Madrid's late fightback
Source ↗ - 10Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Real Madrid (2020, second shock)
The same autumn, Shakhtar beat Real Madrid again — the 13-time winners were twice undone by the same Ukrainian side
Source ↗
What MiMo noticed
Bodø/Glimt are not a one-night story: since 2020 they have won 37 of 48 European home matches, and their 2025-26 Champions League scalps include Manchester City, Inter (twice, over a playoff tie) and Atlético away
Money and the market disagree: on 14 Oct 2026 Transfermarkt had Dortmund's squad at about 7.4 times Bodø's, yet the closing 1X2 only had Dortmund as narrow favourites (2.18 vs 2.95)
A knockout upset is worth more than a league-phase one — which is why Bodo's playoff round win over Inter (both legs) sits above some bigger single-night shocks in this order