Back to the trend of the day: Little-known Austrian team stuns Portuguese giants Sporting in Lisbon, wins 3-2

Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

Biggest Champions League Upsets Since 2000: Top 10

LASK won 3-2 in Lisbon on 21 October 2026 while Sporting out-created them 3.16 to 1.12 in expected goals, so the scoreboard calls it a shock and the chances call it Sporting's bad luck.

No. 1: Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)
10 places
Current as of October 21, 2026, 22:01 EDT

01Final list

The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

1
Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)
Lowest pre-match chance found: 1.4% on the Euro Club Index and about 30/1 with bookmakers, each from one source. Real had 31 attempts and still lost.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 10 · Gemini: 1 · DeepSeek: 1 · Wenxin: 4
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 1
  A squad worth about $14m beat one worth about $872m, and Real had 31 attempts to Sheriff's winner in the 89th minute.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 10
  A Champions League newcomer defeated Europe's most decorated club away, with Sébastien Thill's late strike sealing the result.
- Geminiplace 1
  A 0.35 xG outing and a 3.1% betting implied chance stunned a squad worth 60 times their own in the Bernabéu.
- DeepSeekplace 1
  A 1.4 % win chance – the lowest ever recorded by the Euro Club Index – and the bookies had Sheriff at 30/1.
  Source ↗
- Wenxinplace 4
  Moldovan champions beat the 13-time winners — xG says they truly earned it
5 AIs put it here
Source ↗
2
LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026)
xG calls it Sporting's bad luck: 3.16 to 1.12 (Sofascore and FotMob agree). The pre-match odds are unconfirmed; the answers' guesses put LASK at 8–12%.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin. Did not include: DeepSeek.
In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 1 · Gemini: 7 · Wenxin: 1
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 8
  Sporting had an xG of 3.16 to LASK's 1.12 and 62% of the ball, and lost anyway.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 1
  The clearest current example of the difference between winning and deserving to win: Sporting generated 3.16 xG to LASK's 1.12, yet lost at home.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 7
  Fresh off conceding 6 to Liverpool, Linz capitalized on defensive blunders in Lisbon despite facing 2.65 xG.
- Wenxinplace 1
  6-3 losers to Liverpool, then a 3-2 stunner in Lisbon — xG says Sporting deserved more
4 AIs put it here
Source ↗
3
Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012)
The Euro Club Index gave Celtic 7.1% (one source). Barcelona had 83.6% of the ball and 25 shots to 5, so Celtic won on luck, not on chances.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin.
In their lists: Claude: 2 · Gemini: 3 · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 2
  Celtic had roughly 11–17% of the ball and 5 shots to Barça's 25, and still won.
  Source ↗
- Geminiplace 3
  Celtic held 16.4% possession and completed just 166 passes yet downed Tito Vilanova's world-beaters.
- DeepSeekplace 2
  11 % possession and a 7.1 % win chance – the template for a smash‑and‑grab shock.
  Source ↗
3 AIs put it here
Source ↗
More about the top three ↓
4
Ajax beat Real Madrid 4-1 at the Bernabéu (2019)
Odds and Elo disagree: bookmakers gave Ajax about 19–20% (CBS, Marca), the Euro Club Index only 8.4%. With 4 goals from 16 shots, Ajax earned it.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, DeepSeek. Did not include: Gemini, Wenxin.
In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 2 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 4
  Ajax were about +400 to win the second leg, and then ended Real's three-year reign.
  Source ↗
- ChatGPTplace 2
  Ajax overturned a 2–1 first-leg deficit and won 4–1 away, eliminating the three-time defending champions 5–3 on aggregate.
- DeepSeekplace 6
  The Euro Club Index gave Ajax only an 8.4 % chance, but bookmakers were more generous at 5.25 – a clear disagreement that makes this shock even more interesting.
  Source ↗
3 AIs put it here
Source ↗
5
Basel beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge (2013)
The Euro Club Index gave Basel 11.2% (one source). The 16.6% market figure one answer cites seems to come from November's game in Basel, so it is set aside.
Included it: ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Wenxin.
In their lists: ChatGPT: 9 · Gemini: 8 · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 9
  Basel beat the reigning Europa League holders away in their opening group match, despite Chelsea taking the lead.
- Geminiplace 8
  Mourinho's 29-match unbeaten home group run evaporated as Basel produced an xG mirror of their host.
- DeepSeekplace 7
  Basel’s 11.2 % Euro Club Index chance was actually higher than the bookmakers’ implied 16.6 % – a rare case where the market saw a bigger shock than the rating model.
  Source ↗
3 AIs put it here
Source ↗
6
Deportivo La Coruña beat AC Milan 4-0 (2004 quarter-final)
Overturned a 4-1 first-leg loss against the holders. Single-match odds are unconfirmed (guesses range from 10% to 22%), so the shock lies more in the tie than in the match.
Included it: ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin. Did not include: Claude, DeepSeek.
In their lists: ChatGPT: 4 · Gemini: 10 · Wenxin: 2
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 4
  Deportivo erased a three-goal first-leg deficit to win 5–4 on aggregate, becoming the first Champions League side to complete that comeback.
- Geminiplace 10
  Milan carried a 4-1 first-leg cushion before Deportivo posted the most earned statistical demolition in knockout history.
- Wenxinplace 2
  Depor were 12.8% shots to survive — they didn't just survive, they humiliated
3 AIs put it here
no source given
7
Lyon beat Manchester City 3-1 (2020 quarter-final, Lisbon)
The Euro Club Index gave Lyon 10.6% (one source) in a one-off quarter-final. It was played at a neutral ground, not in Manchester.
Included it: ChatGPT, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Gemini, Wenxin.
In their lists: ChatGPT: 7 · DeepSeek: 10
What each AI noted 2
- ChatGPTplace 7
  Lyon eliminated a heavily favoured City side in a single-match quarter-final, then reached the semi-finals.
- DeepSeekplace 10
  Lyon’s 10.6 % Euro Club Index chance and bookmaker odds around 8/1 made this a shock that both the market and the model recognised.
  Source ↗
2 AIs put it here
Source ↗
8
Bodø/Glimt beat Manchester City 3-1 (January 2026)
Market and models gave Bodø 12–16% before kickoff (Opta 15.9%, Ladbrokes 15.4%). City had 16 shots to 8 and a squad worth about 24 times more.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
In their lists: Claude: 3
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 3
  The market gave Bodø only about 12–16%, and a side with the league phase's highest xG against beat City with a 24-times-smaller squad value.
  Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
Source ↗
9
Lyon beat Manchester City 2-1 at the Etihad (2018)
The Euro Club Index gave Lyon 9% (one source). Two answers put City's shots near 22, but that is an estimate that no match page confirms.
Included it: DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin.
In their lists: DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 1
- DeepSeekplace 3
  Lyon were 16/1 to win at the Etihad and the Euro Club Index gave them only a 9 % chance – both measures agree on a major shock.
1 AIs put it here
no source given
10
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Real Madrid 3-2 in Madrid (2020)
Led 3-0 at half-time in Madrid despite COVID absences. The 6.2% odds and 10.4% Elo figures are one answer's estimates, with no source page.
Included it: Gemini. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
In their lists: Gemini: 4
What each AI noted 1
- Geminiplace 4
  Depleted by 10 positive COVID tests, Shakhtar led 3-0 by halftime away in Madrid.
1 AIs put it here
no source given

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The win chances are not measured the same way: places 1 and 3 use the Euro Club Index (plus bookmaker odds for place 1), while place 2's 8–12% is only the AIs' guess.

1Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)

No. 1 — Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021). On the lists of 5 of 5 AIs; median place there: 1. The AIs put it first because Sheriff had the lowest win chance ever recorded, about 30/1, and still beat Real despite Real's 31 shots.

Did you know

Sheriff's winning goalscorer Sebastien Thill had played on loan last year for FC Tambov, a Russian club that was dissolved in May 2021 after declaring bankruptcy.
Source ↗

What it is: Moldovan club Sheriff won 2-1 at Real Madrid in the 2021 group stage.
Its edge: It has the lowest win chance of the three: 1.4%, about 30/1.
Who should know: Useful for anyone who wants to know how extreme a football upset can get.

Pre-match win chance1.4% win chance (about 30/1)

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Real Madrid had 31 shots, 11 on target. Sheriff had only three on target and scored with two of them. Their goalkeeper made ten saves. That gap between chances and result is why this upset tops the list. — ESPN
Source ↗
Sheriff were the first Moldovan club in the Champions League group stage. They had started in the first qualifying round and needed eight games to get there. Real Madrid were 13-time winners, so the gap in status was huge. — Goal
Source ↗

Did you know

The 2021 match was Sheriff's first Champions League group-stage season, and the club was only founded in 1997. They had already won both of their first two group games before travelling to Madrid.
Source ↗

History

Sheriff won its first Moldovan league title in 2000–01, the start of a run of ten straight titles up to 2010. The club is owned by a Transnistrian business conglomerate.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

Real's own coach felt robbed: Carlo Ancelotti said, "We lost and we didn't deserve it." ESPN also blamed easy goals and loose defending, so this win owed something to Real's mistakes.
Source ↗
Sheriff is run by a company that owns petrol stations, supermarkets and a phone network in Transnistria, a region the UN still counts as part of Moldova. Its stadium cost around £148m.
Source ↗

What people say

We believed we could win. I spoke to my teammates as captain, motivating them, saying 'why not dream?' — Frank Castaneda, Sheriff captain
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open the match page and check the shot count first. Real Madrid had far more shots than Sheriff. Then read the timeline: Sheriff scored first, and Real Madrid equalised from a penalty.
Source ↗

Video: 2021, in 6 minutes · Vox

Compare the top three ↓

2LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026)

No. 2 — LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026). On the lists of 4 of 5 AIs; median place there: 4. The AIs rank it second because LASK won on the scoreboard while Sporting had far better chances, 3.16 xG to 1.12, so it was bad luck.

Did you know

Before this match, Sporting had 6 points from 2 games, including a 2-0 away win at Lens. LASK had 0 points and a -4 goal difference, so the upset was even bigger on paper.
Source ↗

What it is: Austrian side LASK won 3-2 at Sporting in Lisbon on 21 October 2026.
Its edge: It shows the biggest gap between chances and result, but its pre-match odds are unconfirmed.
Who should know: Useful for readers who want to see how an upset looks when it has only just happened.

Pre-match win chance8–12% (unconfirmed guess)

Wikidata

Why it is here

LASK came into the match with no points and went from 0 to 3. O Jogo reports they rose to 24th in the table, while Sporting fell to 12th with six points. — Infobae
Source ↗

History

In 1995 LASK slipped into financial crisis and filed for bankruptcy. In May 1997 it merged with city rivals FC Linz and became LASK Linz.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

The match is very fresh, played on 21 October 2026. Reports differ on small details, such as the minute of LASK's first goal (14' or 15'). Sporting's Luis Suárez scored twice, from a penalty (5') and at 89'.
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open the match page and look at the stats tab first: shots, expected goals and possession. Then check the final score there, because this match is being played on the day you read this.
Source ↗

ChatGPT, Wenxin put it first. What they saw in it

ChatGPT: The clearest current example of the difference between winning and deserving to win: Sporting generated 3.16 xG to LASK's 1.12, yet lost at home.
Wenxin: 6-3 losers to Liverpool, then a 3-2 stunner in Lisbon — xG says Sporting deserved more

Video: Burden of Proof: October 21, 2026 · ABC News

Compare the top three ↓

3Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012)

No. 3 — Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012). On the lists of 3 of 5 AIs; median place there: 2. The AIs put it third because Celtic had only 7.1% win chance and a sliver of the ball, yet beat Barcelona with 5 shots to 25.

Did you know

The win came right after Celtic's 125th anniversary celebrations. Al Jazeera titled its report "Barca give Celtic the perfect present", and a teenage substitute, Tony Watt, scored the second goal.
Source ↗

What it is: Celtic won 2-1 at home against Barcelona in the 2012 group stage.
Its edge: It has a higher win chance than Sheriff's, 7.1%, but the same smash-and-grab pattern of few chances.
Who should know: Useful for anyone curious how a team can win with 16% of the ball.

Pre-match win chance7.1% win chance

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

Celtic had only 16.4% of the ball. Even so, they beat Barcelona 2-1, with goals at 21 minutes and in the 83rd minute. Barcelona had lost no group match since 2009, so this result was very rare. — Reuters via Daily FT
Source ↗

History

In 1994 Celtic was close to receivership. Fergus McCann and Brian Dempsey stepped in with a bank guarantee and offered to recapitalise the club if three directors quit.
Source ↗

Keep in mind

Celtic used set pieces. Lennon said, "We felt we could affect them at corners," and aimed at Barcelona's zonal marking. Wanyama scored from a corner, and Tony Watt added a second in the 83rd minute.
Source ↗
Barcelona still scored through Messi in stoppage time. Celtic had lost 'in the 93rd minute at the Nou Camp two weeks earlier', so this win was a hard-earned reversal, not a one-off.
Source ↗

What people say

To beat Barcelona on the 125th anniversary was remarkable for many reasons. — Neil Lennon, Celtic manager
Source ↗

Where to go further

Open the match page and check the stats first: Barcelona had most of the ball and far more shots. Then read the goal times, where Celtic scored twice and Messi pulled one back late.
Source ↗

Video: The best of the London 2012 Olympics: 100m: a short animated history · The Guardian

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

	Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)	LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026)	Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012)
In the AIs' lists	5 / 5	4 / 5	3 / 5
Pre-match win chance	1.4% win chance (about 30/1)	8–12% (unconfirmed guess)	7.1% win chance
Put first by	Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek	ChatGPT, Wenxin	—

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

LASK at Sporting was a real result but not a deserved one on chances: 3.16 xG to 1.12, with 62% of the ball and 16 shots to 11 for Sporting.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude, ChatGPT. Did not include: Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

Source ↗

An upset in the headlines is not always a big one in the odds. Inter were priced at 3.35 against Barcelona in the 2010 semi-final, a raw chance of about 30%.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

Source ↗

Roma's 3-0 win over Barcelona in 2018 was earned, not lucky: one model gives Roma 2.72 xG to 0.93.

Noticed by:

Included it: ChatGPT. Did not include: Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

Source ↗

A data trap: the xG FotMob shows for Real Madrid–Sheriff (0.97 and 1.57) belongs to the November return game, which Real won 3-0, not to the 2-1 shock.

Noticed by:

Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Biggest Champions League Upsets Since 2000: What the Bookmakers Expected, What Elo Expected, and What xG Says Happened

2Why this topic

No published table combines the market's view, Elo's long-run strength view and the xG of the match itself, so the reader gets an upsets list that shows its own disagreements.

3Where it applies

UEFA Champions League, all stages, 2000–2026

4What we looked at

Underdog's pre-match win chance from bookmakers' closing odds, with the bookmakers' margin removed
Underdog's win chance from the two clubs' Elo ratings on the day
A match makes the list only if both measures call it a shock; the order uses the average of the two surprise scores
Matches where odds and Elo disagree strongly are flagged
Match xG is shown next to each upset to mark whether the underdog earned it or rode its luck
Euro Club Index (via Daily Record) — Elo-style pre-match win chance for the underdog. It stands in for ClubElo, because no answer retrieved ClubElo's match-by-match probabilities. Each figure comes fr
Published bookmaker prices (CBS Sports, Marca, Ladbrokes) — Pre-match prices quoted by outlets. These are not margin-free closing lines.
Opta Analyst pre-match model — Simulated win probability before kickoff

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (Bernabéu, 2021)
A squad worth about $14m beat one worth about $872m, and Real had 31 attempts to Sheriff's winner in the 89th minute.
Source ↗
2
Celtic 2-1 Barcelona (Celtic Park, 2012)
Celtic had roughly 11–17% of the ball and 5 shots to Barça's 25, and still won.
Source ↗
3
Bodø/Glimt 3-1 Manchester City (January 2026)
The market gave Bodø only about 12–16%, and a side with the league phase's highest xG against beat City with a 24-times-smaller squad value.
Source ↗
4
Ajax 4-1 Real Madrid (Bernabéu, 2019)
Ajax were about +400 to win the second leg, and then ended Real's three-year reign.
Source ↗
5
Bodø/Glimt 5-2 Inter on aggregate (2026 knockout play-off)
A club that Opta gave 1.5% to reach the play-offs knocked out Inter, winning 3-1 at home and 2-1 at San Siro.
Source ↗
6
Bodø/Glimt 2-1 Atlético Madrid (league phase, 2026)
The win in Madrid came after the City result, as part of a run that had been given only a 1.5% chance of reaching the play-offs.
7
Roma over Real Madrid (round of 16, 2008)
A Roma side that had never won Europe's top prize went past Real Madrid over two legs.
Source ↗
8
LASK 3-2 Sporting CP (Lisbon, 21 October 2026)
Sporting had an xG of 3.16 to LASK's 1.12 and 62% of the ball, and lost anyway.
Source ↗
9
Inter 3-1 Barcelona (2010 semi-final, first leg)
Inter were priced at 3.35, a raw 29.9% before margin, so this was a modest shock rather than a giant one.
Source ↗
10
Bayer Leverkusen vs Manchester United (2002 semi-final)
Two draws, 2-2 at Old Trafford and 1-1 at home, took Leverkusen to the final, so this is an upset on progress rather than a win.
Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Bodø/Glimt had the highest xG against (17.2) of any side in that league phase, according to Opta's preview, yet beat City 3-1. The market and the long-run chance data both called it unlikely.

Source ↗

LASK–Sporting is a result the xG disagrees with. Sofascore has Sporting at 3.16 xG to 1.12, so on chances it was an unlikely result.

Source ↗

The Inter–Barcelona 2010 price of 3.35 implies a raw win chance of about 30%, far milder than the roughly 12–16% given to Bodø against City. An upset in the headlines is not always a big one in the odds.

Source ↗

Celtic's 2012 win over Barcelona is the clearest example of a result the chance data does not support: 5 shots to 25, with Barcelona on roughly 83% of the ball.

Source ↗

🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
LASK beat Sporting CP 3–2 in Lisbon (2026)
The clearest current example of the difference between winning and deserving to win: Sporting generated 3.16 xG to LASK's 1.12, yet lost at home.
Source ↗
2
Ajax beat Real Madrid 4–1 at the Bernabéu (2019)
Ajax overturned a 2–1 first-leg deficit and won 4–1 away, eliminating the three-time defending champions 5–3 on aggregate.
3
Roma beat Barcelona 3–0 in Rome (2018)
A 4–1 first-leg deficit became a 4–4 aggregate tie, with Roma advancing on away goals after Manolas scored in the 82nd minute.
Source ↗
4
Deportivo La Coruña beat holders AC Milan 4–0 (2004)
Deportivo erased a three-goal first-leg deficit to win 5–4 on aggregate, becoming the first Champions League side to complete that comeback.
5
Paris Saint-Germain beat Barcelona 4–0 in Paris (2017)
PSG scored four without reply in the first leg of a tie that Barcelona would famously turn around with a 6–1 second-leg win.
Source ↗
6
Chelsea eliminated Barcelona after a 1–0 win at Camp Nou (2012)
Down to ten men, Chelsea survived Barcelona's home pressure and scored the decisive away goal through Fernando Torres late in the match.
7
Lyon beat Manchester City 3–1 in Lisbon (2020)
Lyon eliminated a heavily favoured City side in a single-match quarter-final, then reached the semi-finals.
8
Manchester United lost 1–2 to Sevilla at Old Trafford (2018)
Sevilla won the second leg 2–1 and advanced 2–1 on aggregate, knocking out a United side expected to progress.
9
Chelsea lost 1–2 to Basel at Stamford Bridge (2013)
Basel beat the reigning Europa League holders away in their opening group match, despite Chelsea taking the lead.
10
Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2–1 at the Bernabéu (2021)
A Champions League newcomer defeated Europe's most decorated club away, with Sébastien Thill's late strike sealing the result.

What ChatGPT noticed

LASK's 3–2 win over Sporting is the strongest current illustration of scoreline versus chance quality: FotMob records a 3.16–1.12 xG advantage for Sporting, 62% possession and 16–11 shots. It was a real result but not an xG-dominant underdog performance.

Source ↗

Roma's win over Barcelona was not merely a lucky three-goal swing: one public model records 2.72–0.93 xG in Roma's favour. The aggregate comeback was both historically remarkable and supported by the chance-quality estimate.

Source ↗

🇺🇸 Gemini10 places

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
Sheriff Tiraspol 2-1 Real Madrid (2021)
A 0.35 xG outing and a 3.1% betting implied chance stunned a squad worth 60 times their own in the Bernabéu.
2
Rubin Kazan 2-1 Barcelona (2009)
The Russian debutants spent 88 minutes penned inside their box, scoring on 2 of their only 3 attempts at Camp Nou.
3
Celtic 2-1 Barcelona (2012)
Celtic held 16.4% possession and completed just 166 passes yet downed Tito Vilanova's world-beaters.
4
Shakhtar Donetsk 3-2 Real Madrid (2020)
Depleted by 10 positive COVID tests, Shakhtar led 3-0 by halftime away in Madrid.
5
BATE Borisov 3-1 Bayern Munich (2012)
BATE dismantled Heynckes' future treble-winners with 3 counter goals from just 4 shots on target.
6
CFR Cluj 2-1 AS Roma (2008)
Romanian competition debutants stunned the Olimpico behind an unexpected brace from midfielder Culio.
7
LASK 3-2 Sporting CP (2026)
Fresh off conceding 6 to Liverpool, Linz capitalized on defensive blunders in Lisbon despite facing 2.65 xG.
8
Chelsea 1-2 FC Basel (2013)
Mourinho's 29-match unbeaten home group run evaporated as Basel produced an xG mirror of their host.
9
Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Chelsea (2022)
A single 60-yard sprint from Mislav Oršić punished Chelsea's 68% possession and ended Thomas Tuchel's tenure.
10
Deportivo La Coruña 4-0 AC Milan (2004)
Milan carried a 4-1 first-leg cushion before Deportivo posted the most earned statistical demolition in knockout history.

🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
Real Madrid 1‑2 Sheriff Tiraspol (2021)
A 1.4 % win chance – the lowest ever recorded by the Euro Club Index – and the bookies had Sheriff at 30/1.
Source ↗
2
Celtic 2‑1 Barcelona (2012)
11 % possession and a 7.1 % win chance – the template for a smash‑and‑grab shock.
Source ↗
3
Manchester City 1‑2 Lyon (2018)
Lyon were 16/1 to win at the Etihad and the Euro Club Index gave them only a 9 % chance – both measures agree on a major shock.
4
Liverpool 0‑2 Atalanta (2020)
Atalanta won at Anfield with an 8.3 % Euro Club Index chance and bookmaker odds around 9/1 – a shock that the xG also says was slightly fortunate.
Source ↗
5
Juventus 1‑2 Ajax (2019)
Ajax’s 9.4 % Euro Club Index chance was roughly matched by bookmakers at 9/2 – a rare case where the market and the rating model saw the same shock coming.
Source ↗
6
Real Madrid 1‑4 Ajax (2019)
The Euro Club Index gave Ajax only an 8.4 % chance, but bookmakers were more generous at 5.25 – a clear disagreement that makes this shock even more interesting.
Source ↗
7
Chelsea 1‑2 Basel (2013)
Basel’s 11.2 % Euro Club Index chance was actually higher than the bookmakers’ implied 16.6 % – a rare case where the market saw a bigger shock than the rating model.
Source ↗
8
Juventus 1‑2 Manchester United (2018)
United were 11/5 to win in Turin (≈31 % implied) while the Euro Club Index gave them only 11.3 % – the market and the model disagree sharply on how big a shock this was.
Source ↗
9
Lille 1‑3 BATE Borisov (2012)
BATE’s 9.6 % Euro Club Index chance was one of the lowest of the 2010s, but bookmakers made them clear underdogs at around 4/1 – both saw a shock.
Source ↗
10
Manchester City 1‑3 Lyon (2020)
Lyon’s 10.6 % Euro Club Index chance and bookmaker odds around 8/1 made this a shock that both the market and the model recognised.
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What DeepSeek noticed

Sheriff Tiraspol’s 1.4 % win chance is the lowest ever recorded by the Euro Club Index, and it is the only Champions League upset where both the bookmakers (30/1) and the rating model agreed on a sub‑2 % probability.

Source ↗

The 2018‑19 Ajax team appears twice (against Real Madrid and Juventus) with very different market perceptions: the bookies gave them a 19 % chance at the Bernabéu but only 18 % in Turin, while the Euro Club Index rated them at 8.4 % and 9.4 % respectively.

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🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

1
LASK Linz 3–2 Sporting CP (Champions League 2026-27)
6-3 losers to Liverpool, then a 3-2 stunner in Lisbon — xG says Sporting deserved more
2
Deportivo La Coruña 4–0 AC Milan (Champions League 2003-04 Quarter-final 2nd leg)
Depor were 12.8% shots to survive — they didn't just survive, they humiliated
3
Chelsea 1–0 Barcelona (Champions League 2004-05 Round of 16 2nd leg)
Mourinho's wall held a Barça side with 72% ball — xG says Chelsea were slightly lucky
4
Sheriff Tiraspol 2–1 Real Madrid (Champions League 2021-22 Group stage)
Moldovan champions beat the 13-time winners — xG says they truly earned it
5
Celta Vigo 2–1 Barcelona (Champions League 2003-04 Round of 16 1st leg)
Celta beat a Galacticos-era Barça that year — odds gave them just 14% chance
6
FC Basel 2–1 Manchester United (Champions League 2011-12 Group stage)
Basel's last group-game winner knocked out United — xG says Basel deserved it
7
APOEL Nicosia 1–1 (pen) Lyon (Champions League 2011-12 Round of 16 2nd leg)
Cypriot minnows made Lyon sweat and won on pens — xG says Lyon dominated but APOEL survived
8
Club Brugge 1–0 Atlético Madrid (Champions League 2018-19 Group stage)
Brugge's set-piece stunner — Atlético had 70% ball but no goals
9
Monaco 3–1 Manchester City (Champions League 2016-17 Round of 16 2nd leg)
Mbappé's teenage fireworks — City had 60% xG but Monaco's counter killed them
10
Rangers 3–2 Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League 2022-23 Group stage)
Ibrox roared as Rangers knocked out a German giant — xG nearly even

What Wenxin noticed

Of the top 10 by combined surprise, four matches (Chelsea 2005, Monaco 2017, APOEL 2012, Club Brugge 2018) show the underdog significantly underperformed xG — the 'wall' or lucky-goal school of upsets

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01Final list

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)

LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026)

Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012)

Ajax beat Real Madrid 4-1 at the Bernabéu (2019)

Basel beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stamford Bridge (2013)

Deportivo La Coruña beat AC Milan 4-0 (2004 quarter-final)

Lyon beat Manchester City 3-1 (2020 quarter-final, Lisbon)

Bodø/Glimt beat Manchester City 3-1 (January 2026)

Lyon beat Manchester City 2-1 at the Etihad (2018)

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Real Madrid 3-2 in Madrid (2020)

02More about the top three

1Sheriff Tiraspol beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabéu (2021)

Did you know

2LASK beat Sporting CP 3-2 in Lisbon (21 October 2026)

Did you know

3Celtic beat Barcelona 2-1 at Celtic Park (2012)

Did you know

The top three side by side

More ratings

03Worth knowing

04How we counted

1The question

2Why this topic

3Where it applies

4What we looked at

5Who ranked

6How the places were set

05Each AI's own list

What Claude noticed

What ChatGPT noticed

What DeepSeek noticed

What Wenxin noticed