왜 유가가 오를까요? 걸프 주요 원유 항로 10곳 (2026년 10월)

설비 용량 하루 7M 배럴 가운데 하루 5.8M 배럴이 나가고 있습니다. 호르무즈에서 빠져나가는 가장 큰 안전밸브이고, 이와 비슷한 대체 통로는 없습니다.

5 million bpd design capacity serves as the primary regional relief valve, but leaves 2.0 million bpd unused spare capacity

Saudi Arabia's 7 million b/d Red Sea lifeline is pumping at near maximum capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, moving more crude than many nations produce.

A pipeline rated at 7 million b/d that ends at berths that can load only ~4.5 — the quay, not the pipe, sets the ceiling.

Resilience 6.8/10 — built for 5 million b/d, expanded to 7 million b/d, actually moving 5.8 million b/d on 6 October; the escape hatch is running near its limit.

8월 초에 하루 2.2M 배럴이라는 기록을 세운 우회로입니다. 이 물량의 약 90%가 사우디 원유여서, 호르무즈가 막혔을 때 쓰는 안전밸브 역할을 합니다.

4.5 million bpd crude and refined flow protected by a 2.5 million bpd parallel pipeline bypass

Egypt's twin 42-inch pipes move 2.5 million barrels a day across the desert, catching the oversized tankers that simply cannot fit through the Suez Canal.

SUMED's 2.5 million b/d lets Saudi crude skip Bab el-Mandeb — but only westward, while 82% of Hormuz crude is bound east.

Resilience 5.5/10 — SUMED can move 2.5 million b/d of crude north through Egypt, but it cannot carry the products that also use Suez.

같은 주의 물량을 두고도 집계 기관마다 최대 4배까지 차이가 납니다. Kpler는 하루 1.8M 배럴, Vortexa는 하루 2.4M 배럴, AXSMarine는 하루 0.64M 배럴로 집계했습니다.

Red Sea export hub capable of 4.5 million bpd, currently operating at 3.1 million bpd load rate

Fed by the East-West pipeline, this Red Sea port is Saudi Arabia's western safety valve, though its offshore loading buoys remain vulnerable to Houthi drone swarms.

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Resilience 6.2/10 — Yanbu handled 93% of Saudi exports in June at 4.29 million b/d; by early October it was down to 2.34 million b/d.

하루 1.8M 배럴이 나가는 본격적인 우회로이며, 페르시아만 밖으로 빠집니다. 두 번째 송유관은 2027년을 목표로 앞당겨 추진 중이라고 보도되었습니다.

Bypasses Hormuz with 1.5 million bpd capacity, offering 600,000 bpd of active spare volume

The UAE's 1.5 million b/d escape hatch sits safely outside the Gulf, though recent drone strikes proved that bypass terminals are just as vulnerable as the waterways they avoid.

The only Gulf exit that opens onto open water — Fujairah ran at 98% of pipeline capacity while Hormuz itself sat nearly empty.

Resilience 7.2/10 — the UAE’s only Hormuz bypass can move 1.5–1.8 million b/d, roughly 7–9% of the 20.9 million b/d that normally uses the strait.

9월 28일과 10월 1일, 나흘 사이에 쿠웨이트 관련 초대형 유조선(VLCC) 두 척이 피격되었습니다. 쿠웨이트에는 페르시아만을 벗어나는 송유관이 없습니다.

2.0 million bpd export capacity constrained entirely within the northern Persian Gulf basin

Kuwait's primary export port loads 1.5 million barrels daily with no overland escape route, leaving the nation's entire economy afloat on a single, contested strait.

The one Gulf producer whose oil minister said exports were 'zero' while the strait stayed blocked — now crawling back through Indian ship-to-ship transfers.

이라크의 원유 수출은 9월 하루 2.65M 배럴에서 10월 하루 3.4M 배럴 이상으로 뛰었습니다. 수십 년 만에 처음으로 유조선을 호르무즈 너머로 보내고 있습니다.

Iraq's 3.3 million b/d shrank to 0.16 at the peak — and its one bypass pipeline cannot carry a single southern barrel.

Handling 90% of Iran's crude exports, this terminal has zero pipeline backup, making every barrel hostage to the narrow shipping lanes of the northern Gulf.

The only major exporter with its own Hormuz bypass it barely uses — 300,000 b/d of capacity against 1.7 million b/d of exports, most of it idle.