Across the five largest hyperscalers, debt is about $700bn and off-balance-sheet leases about $820bn. New debt now funds 32% of capex, up from 9% in FY2024.
Back to the trend of the day: Computer chip company shares keep falling as investors look for safer places
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
AI Data Center Debt: CoreWeave, Oracle Credit Default Swaps
Insuring $1 million of CoreWeave debt now costs about $100,000 a year, up from under $40,000 a year ago, while Nvidia spends just 6% of its operating cash on its own buildings.
- No. 1: CoreWeave
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
CoreWeave
Feared on both counts: its CDS is above 1,100 bps (about a 64% implied default chance), and first-half 2026 capex was 3.85 times operating cash flow.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · DeepSeek: 1 · Qwen: 7
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 1
A 5-year default insurance price of over 1,000 bps implies about a 64% chance of default, and 2026 capex of $35–39bn is paid for almost entirely with debt.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
Its five-year default insurance exceeded 1,100 basis points as first-half equipment purchases reached 3.85 times operating cash flow.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Five-year CDS blew past 1,100 bps (implying ~60%+ five-year default probability) while debt neared $35–50 billion and FCF stayed deeply negative.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
The specialized GPU cloud pioneer saw its 5-year CDS surge past 1,000 basis points as it borrows against Nvidia chips with capex running at 180% of cash flow.
- DeepSeekplace 1
The market prices a 64% chance CoreWeave defaults within five years — and its CDS blew past 1,194 basis points, the widest of any AI-linked company.
- Qwenplace 7
A specialized AI cloud provider whose entire business model relies on continuous debt financing to acquire Nvidia GPU clusters.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 2
Oracle
CDS at a record 288–300 bps, and FY2026 capex of $55.7bn was about 1.7 times operating cash flow, with a BBB- rating one notch above junk.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · DeepSeek: 2 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 2
FY2026 capex was about 1.7 times operating cash flow, with free cash flow of -$23.7bn, one notch above junk (BBB-).
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
Capital spending exceeded reported operating cash flow even after an $11.4 billion lift from customer prepayments.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
CDS near 300 bps and FCF already negative as it funds large data-center projects partly with debt.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Sitting on an edge-of-junk BBB- rating with $87B in debt and lease liabilities, Oracle's 5-year CDS blew out to a record 288 bps to fund cloud data centers.
- DeepSeekplace 2
Oracle's CDS hit a record 288 basis points — the highest of any investment-grade company — as it plans $90–95 billion in capex while free cash flow is negative $23.7 billion.
- Qwenplace 1
Five-year CDS spreads hit a record 288 basis points, signaling bond market anxiety over AI debt outpacing organic cash generation.
6 AIs put it here - 3
SoftBank Group
Its CDS is above 400 bps, higher than Oracle's, but that quote is from September, and its $30bn goes into OpenAI shares rather than buildings.
Included it: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini. Did not include: Claude, Meta, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 3
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 3
A $30 billion OpenAI commitment met a five-year CDS price above 400 basis points in September.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
CDS widened to ~424 bps as it borrows heavily to fund OpenAI and related AI stakes.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Aggressive commitments to multi-gigawatt AI supercluster projects and debt-backed investments pushed SoftBank's 5-year default insurance to 424 basis points.
3 AIs put it here - 4
Nebius Group
No traded CDS, but its accounts look stretched: first-half capex was 1.80 times operating cash flow, and debt of $8.55bn is roughly equal to its $8bn cash.
Included it: ChatGPT, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: ChatGPT: 4 · Grok: 9 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 4
First-half construction spending was 1.80 times operating cash flow, and management expects customer advances to fund 50–60% of capital spending.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
Heavy convertible-note financing for AI cloud capacity; CDS not widely quoted but debt structure is aggressive.
- DeepSeekplace 3
Nebius carries $8.55 billion in debt against $8 billion in cash — a razor-thin margin for a company projecting up to $39 billion in capex.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 5
Broadcom (chip maker)
A chip maker that worries lenders: its CDS hit a record 136 bps in early October, a reading reported by two AIs that cite the same outlet.
Included it: DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: DeepSeek: 4 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 2
- DeepSeekplace 4
Broadcom's CDS climbed 28 basis points in a single month as it backstops over $60 billion in AI debt financing — creating 'phantom leverage' that doesn't show on the balance sheet.
- Qwenplace 6
Five-year CDS spiked to 136 basis points, reflecting perceived credit risk as it takes on debt to fund custom AI silicon and networking infrastructure.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 6
Meta Platforms
Its own cash still covers capex (76.6% in H1), but a separate data-center venture carries $27.3bn of debt. Its CDS is at a record, with levels disputed (28 vs 99 bps).
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 6 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 7 · DeepSeek: 6 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 3
Q2 capex of $31.1bn nearly matched operating cash flow of $31.9bn, leaving free cash flow of $0.8bn, and Meta borrowed $24.9bn and stopped buybacks.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 6
Its first-half operating cash flow covered its own equipment purchases, while a separate data-center venture carried $27.3 billion of secured debt.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
Debt roughly tripled year-over-year while quarterly free cash flow collapsed amid AI infrastructure spending.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Meta funds its $40B+ AI cluster buildout almost entirely from digital advertising profits, leaving CDS at 28 bps and cash reserves double its funded debt.
- DeepSeekplace 6
Meta's CDS jumped from 56 basis points at end-2025 to ~99 basis points by July 2026, while its off-balance-sheet AI commitments hit $1.65 trillion — the largest hidden debt pile in corporate history.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 2
Guided $145 billion in 2026 capex, with projections warning free cash flow could turn negative as AI infrastructure burns capital.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 7
Amazon (AWS)
Biggest cash machine, still short: trailing capex of $169.0bn beat $161.4bn of operating cash, but it holds $123bn of cash and securities.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 7 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · DeepSeek: 7 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 4
Q2 capex of $53.1bn was about 117% of operating cash flow, and trailing free cash flow turned negative, yet its $25bn bond was 2.5x oversubscribed.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 7
Its trailing-year property spending edged past operating cash flow despite $161.4 billion flowing in from operations.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Trailing free cash flow turned negative as AI-related property and equipment spending surged.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
AWS is committing over $75B in capex while structuring off-balance-sheet nuclear power contracts, keeping CDS spreads at a modest 32 bps.
- DeepSeekplace 7
Amazon's CDS is still low (~80 bps), but its forward free cash flow is estimated at negative $300 billion — the largest negative FCF of any hyperscaler.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 4
Committed $200 billion to 2026 capital expenditures, compressing free cash flow despite massive operating cash flow from AWS and retail.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 8
Alphabet (Google)
Q2 capex was about 115% of operating cash flow and 2026 plans reach $195–205bn, yet first-half cash from operations was $84.9bn.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 8 · Grok: 6 · Gemini: 8 · DeepSeek: 8 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 5
Q2 capex of $44.9bn was about 115% of operating cash flow, and Alphabet has raised over $85bn of debt and an $84.75bn equity offering.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 8
Its $195 billion–$205 billion 2026 spending plan is large, though first-half operations generated $84.9 billion of cash.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
First negative free-cash-flow quarter as a public company driven by $44.9 billion quarterly capex.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Holding $100B+ in cash and marketable securities, Alphabet pays 26 bps for debt insurance while funding TPU data centers directly from search cash flows.
- DeepSeekplace 8
Alphabet has the lowest CDS of the hyperscalers (~60 bps) and the lowest forward debt-to-equity ratio (13%), but its forward FCF is still estimated at negative $257 billion.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 3
Facing a projected 90% plunge in free cash flow to $8.2 billion in 2026 as $185 billion in AI capital expenditure consumes operating profits.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 9
Microsoft
Pays its own way: fiscal 2026 operating cash of $182.9bn covered $115.9bn of capex (63.4%), though leases not yet started reached about $108bn.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 9 · DeepSeek: 9 · Qwen: 5
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 6
Fiscal-2026 operating cash flow was $182.9bn, the strongest of the group, but its leases not yet started are off-balance-sheet obligations.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow of $182.9 billion covered $115.9 billion of equipment purchases.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Still generates substantial operating cash but finance-lease and AI capex are rising; better cash coverage than peers.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
Microsoft commands a pristine AAA rating and 24 bps CDS spread, though it has quietly accumulated over $100B in multi-year cloud and power lease commitments.
- DeepSeekplace 9
Microsoft's CDS is among the lowest (~50 bps) and it is the only hyperscaler still generating positive free cash flow at scale — but its off-balance-sheet AI commitments are $1.65 trillion.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 5
Balances a $190 billion AI spending guidance with fortress-like cash reserves, though leverage ratios inch upward to fund joint-venture data centers.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 10
Nvidia (chip maker)
Seller, not builder: capex is just 6% of $74.4bn first-half operating cash, yet its CDS still hit a record (reported at 84–90 bps).
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 10 · Grok: 8 · Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 10 · Qwen: 10
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 8
Nvidia's default insurance hit a record, even though it sells the chips and carries little of the building debt.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
It generated $74.4 billion of first-half operating cash while spending $4.4 billion on its own property and intangibles: its customers carry much of the construction bill.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 8
CDS rose sharply (to around 90 bps) but the company remains highly profitable and cash-generative relative to pure data-center builders.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
The hardware supplier sits at the opposite pole of the bond market: an 18 bps CDS spread, over $60B in operating cash flow, and virtually zero balance-sheet risk.
- DeepSeekplace 10
Nvidia is the safest chip name in the CDS market — its spread is only ~84 basis points — but its stock still fell 1.8% on Oct 15 as the whole sector was repriced.
- Qwenplace 10
Though a chipmaker, its own data-center investments and ecosystem funding tie its credit profile to the very builders it supplies.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Banks have spent more than six months trying to sell a $38bn construction loan tied to Oracle-leased sites in Texas and Wisconsin.
Oracle's operating cash includes $11.4bn of customer prepayments. Without them, its capex would be about 2.44 times the remaining cash flow rather than 1.23 times.
CDS levels for the large hyperscalers are disputed: one AI quotes 24–32 bps, another 50–99 bps, and Reuters says only that they are at records without giving a level.
Public DTCC figures show CDS trading volume, not the amount of insurance outstanding, so how much protection really exists on each name is still unknown.
03Questions people ask
What's a credit default swap?
It is insurance against a borrower failing to repay its debt. CoreWeave's five-year contract now costs about $100,000 a year per $1m of debt, up from under $40,000 a year ago.
How does a credit default swap work?
The buyer pays a yearly premium quoted in basis points (300 bps = 3% of the insured amount), and the seller pays out if the borrower defaults. Reuters notes that 1,000 bps implies roughly a 64% chance of default within five years.
Source ↗Oracle credit default swap price?
About 288–300 bps on October 15, a record, or roughly $28,000 a year per $1m insured. Quotes differ by date and provider: Bloomberg cited 151 bps in early October.
Who profits from AI data centers?
Chip suppliers profit first: Nvidia spends only 6% of its operating cash on its own capex. Builders such as CoreWeave report backlogs above $100bn but borrow to deliver them.
04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 AI Data-Center Builders: What the Bond Market Fears vs What Their Own Accounts Show
2Why this topic
It sets the market's price of fear against each company's own accounts, so the reader can see who looks safe on paper but worries lenders, and the reverse.
3Where it applies
Global (large technology companies and AI data-center builders, with major chip makers shown for comparison)
4What we looked at
- Five-year credit default swap price: what investors pay to insure against the company failing to repay its debt
- Planned AI building spending as a share of the cash the business brings in (operating cash flow)
- Cash and short-term investments compared with total debt, including leases and joint-venture debt kept off the main balance sheet
- S&P Global Market Intelligence and LSEG quotes, as reported by Reuters — Five-year credit default swap spreads in basis points per year
- Semafor — Yearly cost of default insurance per $1 million of debt
- SEC EDGAR company filings (10-K, 10-Q) — Capital spending against operating cash flow; cash against debt and leases
- FactSet Insight — Hyperscaler debt, off-balance-sheet leases and the share of capex funded by debt
- DTCC Trade Information Warehouse — CDS trading volume by company (trading volume, not insurance outstanding)
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CoreWeave
A 5-year default insurance price of over 1,000 bps implies about a 64% chance of default, and 2026 capex of $35–39bn is paid for almost entirely with debt.
Source ↗ - 2Oracle
FY2026 capex was about 1.7 times operating cash flow, with free cash flow of -$23.7bn, one notch above junk (BBB-).
Source ↗ - 3Meta
Q2 capex of $31.1bn nearly matched operating cash flow of $31.9bn, leaving free cash flow of $0.8bn, and Meta borrowed $24.9bn and stopped buybacks.
Source ↗ - 4Amazon (AWS)
Q2 capex of $53.1bn was about 117% of operating cash flow, and trailing free cash flow turned negative, yet its $25bn bond was 2.5x oversubscribed.
Source ↗ - 5Alphabet (Google)
Q2 capex of $44.9bn was about 115% of operating cash flow, and Alphabet has raised over $85bn of debt and an $84.75bn equity offering.
Source ↗ - 6Microsoft
Fiscal-2026 operating cash flow was $182.9bn, the strongest of the group, but its leases not yet started are off-balance-sheet obligations.
Source ↗ - 7xAI / SpaceX
It uses special-purpose debt vehicles for data centers, and its default insurance cost rose 'sharply' this week.
Source ↗ - 8Nvidia (chip maker, for comparison)
Nvidia's default insurance hit a record, even though it sells the chips and carries little of the building debt.
Source ↗ - 9STMicroelectronics (chip maker, for comparison)
A European chip maker whose default insurance rose sharply alongside its 7% share drop.
Source ↗ - 10Five-hyperscaler aggregate (reference line)
Aggregate debt of about $700bn and off-balance-sheet leases of about $820bn sit behind the company figures.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Even Amazon, Alphabet and Meta have record CDS levels. Their operating cash flow now roughly equals capex, so they too are borrowing more.
Banks are trying to sell a $38bn construction loan tied to Oracle-leased sites in Texas and Wisconsin. They have tried for more than six months, per Bloomberg.
Hot inflation raised bets on a Fed rate hike, which makes the floating-rate and refinancing debt of AI builders more expensive. Analyst Anna Wu says sentiment matters more than fundamentals for now.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CoreWeave
Its five-year default insurance exceeded 1,100 basis points as first-half equipment purchases reached 3.85 times operating cash flow.
Source ↗ - 2Oracle
Capital spending exceeded reported operating cash flow even after an $11.4 billion lift from customer prepayments.
Source ↗ - 3SoftBank Group
A $30 billion OpenAI commitment met a five-year CDS price above 400 basis points in September.
Source ↗ - 4Nebius Group
First-half construction spending was 1.80 times operating cash flow, and management expects customer advances to fund 50–60% of capital spending.
Source ↗ - 5Equinix
The established data-center operator spent $2.834 billion on property and equipment in six months, versus $1.784 billion of operating cash flow.
Source ↗ - 6Meta Platforms
Its first-half operating cash flow covered its own equipment purchases, while a separate data-center venture carried $27.3 billion of secured debt.
Source ↗ - 7Amazon
Its trailing-year property spending edged past operating cash flow despite $161.4 billion flowing in from operations.
Source ↗ - 8Alphabet
Its $195 billion–$205 billion 2026 spending plan is large, though first-half operations generated $84.9 billion of cash.
Source ↗ - 9Microsoft
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow of $182.9 billion covered $115.9 billion of equipment purchases.
Source ↗ - 10Nvidia — chip-maker comparison
It generated $74.4 billion of first-half operating cash while spending $4.4 billion on its own property and intangibles: its customers carry much of the construction bill.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
CoreWeave's CDS exceeded 1,100 basis points and its 2031 bond yield briefly reached 16%; Reuters reported Oracle near 300 basis points, showing how sharply lenders distinguish the two.
The biggest cash generator is not necessarily the safest on a free-cash-flow test: Amazon produced $161.4 billion of trailing operating cash but spent $169.0 billion on property.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CoreWeave
Five-year CDS blew past 1,100 bps (implying ~60%+ five-year default probability) while debt neared $35–50 billion and FCF stayed deeply negative.
Source ↗ - 2Oracle
CDS near 300 bps and FCF already negative as it funds large data-center projects partly with debt.
Source ↗ - 3SoftBank
CDS widened to ~424 bps as it borrows heavily to fund OpenAI and related AI stakes.
Source ↗ - 4Meta Platforms
Debt roughly tripled year-over-year while quarterly free cash flow collapsed amid AI infrastructure spending.
Source ↗ - 5Amazon
Trailing free cash flow turned negative as AI-related property and equipment spending surged.
Source ↗ - 6Alphabet
First negative free-cash-flow quarter as a public company driven by $44.9 billion quarterly capex.
Source ↗ - 7Microsoft
Still generates substantial operating cash but finance-lease and AI capex are rising; better cash coverage than peers.
Source ↗ - 8Nvidia
CDS rose sharply (to around 90 bps) but the company remains highly profitable and cash-generative relative to pure data-center builders.
Source ↗ - 9Nebius
Heavy convertible-note financing for AI cloud capacity; CDS not widely quoted but debt structure is aggressive.
- 10Applied Digital
Data-center landlord with substantial debt relative to cash; exposed to tenant and power-execution risk.
What Grok noticed
Aggregate hyperscaler capex is projected to exceed combined operating cash flow around Q3 2026 for the first time in the AI cycle.
CoreWeave’s CDS spike implies markets now price a roughly 60%+ chance of a credit event within five years—far higher than a year earlier.
Off-balance-sheet leases and joint-venture structures add hundreds of billions in debt-equivalent obligations that traditional net-cash metrics miss.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CoreWeave
The specialized GPU cloud pioneer saw its 5-year CDS surge past 1,000 basis points as it borrows against Nvidia chips with capex running at 180% of cash flow.
- 2Oracle
Sitting on an edge-of-junk BBB- rating with $87B in debt and lease liabilities, Oracle's 5-year CDS blew out to a record 288 bps to fund cloud data centers.
- 3SoftBank Group
Aggressive commitments to multi-gigawatt AI supercluster projects and debt-backed investments pushed SoftBank's 5-year default insurance to 424 basis points.
- 4Digital Realty Trust
The colocation REIT pays 105 bps in CDS spread while reinvesting 80% of operating cash into power and shell infrastructure against $17B in debt.
- 5Equinix
Carrying over $22B in debt and long-term ground leases, Equinix's CDS traded up to 95 bps as it relies on off-balance joint ventures to build xScale facilities.
- 6Amazon (AWS)
AWS is committing over $75B in capex while structuring off-balance-sheet nuclear power contracts, keeping CDS spreads at a modest 32 bps.
- 7Meta Platforms
Meta funds its $40B+ AI cluster buildout almost entirely from digital advertising profits, leaving CDS at 28 bps and cash reserves double its funded debt.
- 8Alphabet (Google)
Holding $100B+ in cash and marketable securities, Alphabet pays 26 bps for debt insurance while funding TPU data centers directly from search cash flows.
- 9Microsoft
Microsoft commands a pristine AAA rating and 24 bps CDS spread, though it has quietly accumulated over $100B in multi-year cloud and power lease commitments.
- 10Nvidia
The hardware supplier sits at the opposite pole of the bond market: an 18 bps CDS spread, over $60B in operating cash flow, and virtually zero balance-sheet risk.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1CoreWeave (CRWV)
The market prices a 64% chance CoreWeave defaults within five years — and its CDS blew past 1,194 basis points, the widest of any AI-linked company.
- 2Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle's CDS hit a record 288 basis points — the highest of any investment-grade company — as it plans $90–95 billion in capex while free cash flow is negative $23.7 billion.
- 3Nebius Group (NBIS)
Nebius carries $8.55 billion in debt against $8 billion in cash — a razor-thin margin for a company projecting up to $39 billion in capex.
Source ↗ - 4Broadcom (AVGO)
Broadcom's CDS climbed 28 basis points in a single month as it backstops over $60 billion in AI debt financing — creating 'phantom leverage' that doesn't show on the balance sheet.
- 5IREN (IREN)
IREN holds $7.59 billion in debt — nearly as much as its entire market capitalization — with no operating cash flow to cover it.
Source ↗ - 6Meta Platforms (META)
Meta's CDS jumped from 56 basis points at end-2025 to ~99 basis points by July 2026, while its off-balance-sheet AI commitments hit $1.65 trillion — the largest hidden debt pile in corporate history.
Source ↗ - 7Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon's CDS is still low (~80 bps), but its forward free cash flow is estimated at negative $300 billion — the largest negative FCF of any hyperscaler.
Source ↗ - 8Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet has the lowest CDS of the hyperscalers (~60 bps) and the lowest forward debt-to-equity ratio (13%), but its forward FCF is still estimated at negative $257 billion.
Source ↗ - 9Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft's CDS is among the lowest (~50 bps) and it is the only hyperscaler still generating positive free cash flow at scale — but its off-balance-sheet AI commitments are $1.65 trillion.
Source ↗ - 10Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is the safest chip name in the CDS market — its spread is only ~84 basis points — but its stock still fell 1.8% on Oct 15 as the whole sector was repriced.
What DeepSeek noticed
The five largest hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have accumulated $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI commitments — roughly 4x the US federal budget deficit. Most of this is in leases and purchase commitments that don't appear on the main balance sheet.
🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Oracle
Five-year CDS spreads hit a record 288 basis points, signaling bond market anxiety over AI debt outpacing organic cash generation.
- 2Meta
Guided $145 billion in 2026 capex, with projections warning free cash flow could turn negative as AI infrastructure burns capital.
Source ↗ - 3Alphabet
Facing a projected 90% plunge in free cash flow to $8.2 billion in 2026 as $185 billion in AI capital expenditure consumes operating profits.
Source ↗ - 4Amazon
Committed $200 billion to 2026 capital expenditures, compressing free cash flow despite massive operating cash flow from AWS and retail.
Source ↗ - 5Microsoft
Balances a $190 billion AI spending guidance with fortress-like cash reserves, though leverage ratios inch upward to fund joint-venture data centers.
Source ↗ - 6Broadcom
Five-year CDS spiked to 136 basis points, reflecting perceived credit risk as it takes on debt to fund custom AI silicon and networking infrastructure.
Source ↗ - 7CoreWeave
A specialized AI cloud provider whose entire business model relies on continuous debt financing to acquire Nvidia GPU clusters.
Source ↗ - 8Tesla
Diverting billions to AI compute clusters and robotics, stretching its balance sheet amid volatile automotive cash flows.
Source ↗ - 9IBM
Moderate AI infrastructure spending backed by stable enterprise software cash flows, keeping CDS spreads tightly contained.
Source ↗ - 10Nvidia
Though a chipmaker, its own data-center investments and ecosystem funding tie its credit profile to the very builders it supplies.
Source ↗
What Qwen noticed
The combined AI capital expenditure for the top hyperscalers is projected to reach $750 billion in 2026, consuming over 90% of some companies' operating cash flows.