Back to the trend of the day: Manchester United are winless in six games and short of defenders
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

Premier League Injury Table 2026/27 vs Expected Points

Nottingham Forest have 5 points from chances worth 10.8 to 12.6 expected points with only two players out, while Manchester United's injury crisis comes with a shortfall about half that size.

  • No. 1: Manchester United
  • 10 places

01Final list

The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    Manchester United

    Shortfall only -2.5 to -3.9 depending on the model, smaller than Forest's, but the deepest crisis: nine first-team players missed Como, Martinez, Shaw and Mainoo among them.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 5 · Gemini: 1 · Grok: 5 · StepFun: 1 · DeepSeek: 6

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 5

      Winless in six with 7 points against 10.9 xPts. Three players are out and four doubtful before Como, and Lisandro Martinez left at half-time against Leeds.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 1

      A 6.8-point deficit between expected and actual points coincides with losing 58% of first-choice outfield defensive minutes to the treatment table.

    • Grokplace 5

      7 points from 9.97 xPts while missing an entire first-choice defensive line for the Como Champions League fixture

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 1

      Nine first-team players missed the trip to Como — and Opta's model still had them fourth on expected points.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 6

      Seven points from 9.5 xPts — a -2.5 gap, made worse by a defensive injury crisis before the Como trip.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    Tottenham Hotspur

    -2.86 to -3.1 on three models, with the league's longest list on 16 Oct: six out, and Squawka counts 11 out or doubtful.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 6 · Gemini: 2 · Grok: 6 · StepFun: 3 · DeepSeek: 5

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 6

      Six players out, the longest list in the league on 16 Oct, with a 3.1-point shortfall.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 2

      A high defensive line and persistent soft-tissue casualties produced an underperformance of 5.9 points beneath their underlying chance quality.

    • Grokplace 6

      Highest games missed through injury (363) and a +2.86 xPts shortfall

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 3

      20th in the real table, 12th on expected points, 625 days lost to injury.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 5

      Six points from 9.1 xPts — a -3.1 gap and five senior players currently out.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    Nottingham Forest

    Biggest shortfall on two of three models: 5 points from 10.9 (Football Edge) to 12.58 (Understat) xPts, yet only two players out. Injuries explain little of it.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 1 · StepFun: 4 · DeepSeek: 1

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 2

      Their chances were worth about 10.8 points and they have 5. The back line is part-broken (Savona out, Milenkovic a doubt) and they have lost three league games in a row.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 1

      5 points from 12.58 xPts after seven games — the largest shortfall in the division

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 4

      Five goals from chances worth 11.1 xG — the worst finishing in the Premier League.

    • DeepSeekplace 1

      Five points from 10.9 xPts — the widest process-versus-results chasm in the division.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. More about the top three ↓
  5. 4

    AFC Bournemouth

    No. 1 on Statz.ai (6 points vs 12.1 xPts, -6.1) and No. 2 on Football Edge (-5.4) and Understat (-6.34), with three or four players out.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 1 · Grok: 2 · StepFun: 5 · DeepSeek: 2

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 1

      6 points from 7 games against 12.1 expected: a 6.1-point shortfall, the biggest in the league, with four players out and none doubtful.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 2

      6 points against 12.34 xPts despite creating the league’s third-highest xG

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 5

      The model's biggest underperformer in the division: 6.16 points below expected.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 2

      Six points from 11.4 xPts — the second-biggest underperformance, with a thin attacking injury list.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 5

    Sunderland

    Fewest points (4) against 8.4 to 9.1 xPts on three models. One answer's Statz.ai reading (6 vs 10.4) conflicts with that. Ballard and Mundle are out.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 4 · Grok: 4 · StepFun: 6 · DeepSeek: 4

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 4

      Four points from games worth 9.1 on chance quality, with two out and two doubtful.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 4

      4 points versus 8.46 xPts in their first season back

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 6

      10.4 expected points, six on the board — a promoted side living on scraps.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 4

      Four points from 8.4 xPts — the worst actual tally in the league, yet not the worst xPts gap.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 6

    Aston Villa

    Exactly on par (-0.1 to +0.03) with up to eight players on the report and Onana out until about June 2027.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 9 · Grok: 10 · StepFun: 8 · DeepSeek: 9

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 9

      A rounding-error gap (-0.1) alongside three out and two doubtful.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 10

      Near-neutral xPts but multiple defensive and midfield absences including Onana (ACL)

      Source ↗
    • StepFunplace 8

      432 days lost to 16 separate injuries — the fourth-heaviest absence load in the league.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 9

      Eight points from 8.0 xPts — exactly par, but eight players are on the injury report.

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  8. 7

    Fulham

    -5.4 to -5.5 on Statz.ai and Football Edge (-4.64 on Understat) with nobody out on 16 Oct. Injuries explain this shortfall less than any other on the list.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 3 · DeepSeek: 3

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 3

      They are 5.5 points short of their xPts with almost no one out. Their gap is the one injuries explain least.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 3

      5 points from 9.64 xPts with attacking output not converting

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 3

      Five points from 10.4 xPts — the third-widest gap, but the cleanest injury sheet in the league.

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  9. 8

    Coventry City

    Small shortfall (-0.7 to -1.03) with four out, including defenders Amenda and Woolfenden: short of players but still close to par.

    Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 7 · Grok: 7 · DeepSeek: 7

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 7

      Four out, including defenders Amenda and Woolfenden, and a small 0.7-point shortfall.

      Source ↗
    • Grokplace 7

      Modest +1.03 shortfall but limited squad depth after promotion

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 7

      Six points from 7.0 xPts — a modest -1.0 gap, but four players are currently unavailable.

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  10. 9

    Brentford

    On par (-0.2 to -0.4) despite six or seven players out or doubtful, Nathan Collins among them. The absences are not costing points yet.

    Included it: Claude, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 8 · DeepSeek: 8

    What each AI noted 2
    • Claudeplace 8

      Almost exactly on their xPts (10 vs 10.4), with six players out or doubtful.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 8

      Ten points from 10.2 xPts — almost exactly par, but three injuries and four doubts.

      Source ↗
    2 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  11. 10

    Everton

    Estimate from one source: Statz.ai puts them on 8.8 xPts, about 0.8 short. LineupsToday lists only Mykolenko as injured.

    Included it: Gemini, StepFun. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Nemotron, Grok, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Gemini: 7 · StepFun: see list

    What each AI noted 2
    • Geminiplace 7

      A thin squad depth meant missing defensive pillars inflated concession rates by 0.70 goals per match, costing 3.9 expected points.

    • StepFun

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    2 AIs put it here
    Source ↗

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The three gaps come from different xPts models (Understat, Football Edge, Opta and others), so the numbers are not exactly like for like. Injury counts also come from different dates and lists.

1Manchester United

No. 1 — Manchester United. On the lists of 5 of 8 AIs; median place there: 5. United's gap to expected points is smaller than Forest's, but the AIs saw the deepest injury crisis, with a whole defence missing.

Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur, 12 March 2022 (05)
Ardfern · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Manchester United began in 1878 as Newton Heath LYR. It was a works team of railway workers in the Carriage and Wagon department of the Lancashire and Yorkshire Railway. It took the United name in 1902.

    Source ↗
What it is
Manchester United, winless in six, with a defence hit by many injuries.
Its edge
Its injuries are the deepest: nine first-team players missed the Como trip.
Who should know
Useful for fans judging how much injuries, not bad luck, hurt a team.
  • Points below xPts-2.5 to -3.9 shortfall
  • Founded1878
  • HeadquartersManchester, Manchester

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Defender Lisandro Martinez has picked up five injuries since November 2024. Now a thigh problem has no clear return date. A full muscle tear would mean at least six to 12 weeks out, so United's back line keeps changing.

    Source ↗

  • Matthijs de Ligt has not started a game for United since November 2025. Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu are also called major doubts. A big share of the usual defence is missing, which fits the injury table.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 1958, a plane crash in Munich killed eight Manchester United players and three club officials. The club had to mourn and rebuild after losing much of its young team. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Sesko has been out since a shin injury in a League Cup game against Brighton, and the club has set no return date. Dorgu got hurt on Denmark duty. Mazraoui, hurt on Morocco duty, is reported to be close to a return. The report comes from a club insider, not an official club announcement.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Read the Old Trafford Tour & Museum page first. It lists opening hours of 09:30 to 16:00 Sunday to Thursday, and says the tour takes approximately 70 minutes. It closes on home match days.

    Source ↗

Video: How Sir Alex Ferguson Rebuilt Manchester United · Football Iconic

Compare the top three ↓

2Tottenham Hotspur

No. 2 — Tottenham Hotspur. On the lists of 5 of 8 AIs; median place there: 5. Spurs' gap is similar in size to United's, but the AIs backed it with the league's longest injury list and many days lost.

Tottenham Hotspurs tegen Atletico Madrid 5-1 Nr 14 en 15 Elftal Tottenham Hots, Bestanddeelnr 915-1586
Harry Pot for Anefo · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons
Bruce castle 1
CC BY-SA 2.5 · Wikimedia Commons
808 Tottenham High Road
Hzh · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Spurs won the FA Cup in 1901 while still outside the Football League. The club's own history page calls them the first and only non-league club to win the Cup. They beat Sheffield United 3-1 in a replay at Bolton.

    Source ↗
What it is
Tottenham Hotspur, with six players out on 16 October.
Its edge
It has the longest injury list in the league, and many of the injuries are long.
Who should know
Useful for fans wondering if long injuries explain a club's poor points.
  • Points below xPts-2.86 to -3.1 pts
  • Founded1882
  • HeadquartersLondon

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • The injuries are long. Kulusevski has been out since May 2025. Simons hurt his knee in April and is not expected back until the early stages of 2027. That adds up to a huge count of days lost.

    Source ↗

  • Sports Mole's 16 October list has four Spurs players marked Out: Mudryk (ankle), Simons, Kulusevski and Odobert (all knee). Midfielder Bentancur is also suspended for three league games, though suspensions don't count here.

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • The grass pitch at Tottenham's stadium is built in three steel trays that slide away under the South Stand. This leaves an artificial surface below for NFL games and concerts. It is not the first removable grass pitch: GelreDome in the Netherlands had one from 1998.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 1976–77 Spurs were relegated from the top flight after 27 years in it. Keith Burkinshaw, in his first season in charge, saw them go straight back up in 1977–78.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Last season Spurs lost the most days to injury of any Premier League side. Sky Sports says players missed a combined 370 games across all competitions, the most of any top-flight side.

    Source ↗

  • Spurs checked whether their stadium's retractable pitch adds to injuries and called it an area of concern. Sky says the first outside bounce tests were inconclusive, so the cause is not proven.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Open the 2026/27 squad list and look at the players Spurs have listed. Start with the defenders, because the ranking counts goals conceded when first-choice defenders are missing.

    Source ↗

Video: The incredible philosophy of Ange Postecoglou | Tottenham Hotspur tactics explained · The Purist Football

Compare the top three ↓

3Nottingham Forest

No. 3 — Nottingham Forest. On the lists of 4 of 8 AIs; median place there: 1.5. Forest have the biggest points shortfall on most models, but with only two players out, injuries explain little, so the AIs ranked them lower.

City Ground, Nottingham - geograph.org.uk - 83567
Garth Newton · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • In 1886 Forest gave a set of kits to help the new Arsenal club get started. The page says the North London team still wear red today.

    Source ↗
What it is
Nottingham Forest, with 5 points from chances worth far more.
Its edge
It has the biggest gap between points and xPts, with the fewest injuries.
Who should know
Useful for fans wanting to know if bad finishing or luck, not injuries, is the cause.
  • Points below xPts5 pts from 10.9–12.58 xPts
  • Founded1865
  • HeadquartersWest Bridgford

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Forest have an xG of 12.24, a 7.24 underperformance, but have conceded only 7.26 expected goals, second-best in the league behind Arsenal. Their chances and defence look fine, so injuries explain little of the gap.

    Source ↗

  • Forest rank third on expected points (Understat) with 11.42, behind Arsenal at 11.99 and Manchester City at 11.72. Their actual league position is far lower, which is why the gap between points and xPts is so large.

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • Forest's baseball club were British champions in 1899. Their red colour also comes from 'Garibaldi Red': the club bought twelve tasselled caps in that shade, named after the leader of Italy's 'Redshirts'.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 1975, Nottingham Forest appointed Brian Clough while sitting 13th in the second tier. Within four years, they had won the English title and their first European Cup. — BBC Sport

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Good chances do not always become points. At Anfield Forest won the xG battle, 2.3 to 1.61, yet only drew 2-2 after leading twice. xG is a guess at how many goals chances should bring, so it is not a promise.

    Source ↗

  • Forest's season began badly. They lost two home games to Leeds, one in the league and one in the cup, and had one point from two league games before this draw. Confidence can matter as much as chances.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Book a Museum & Stadium Tour for a guided walk round the City Ground that ends in the club museum. Look first at the stop list: the changing rooms and the Director's Box. Check price and length on the page, since sources differ.

    Source ↗
Grok, DeepSeek put it first. What they saw in it

  • Grok: 5 points from 12.58 xPts after seven games — the largest shortfall in the division

  • DeepSeek: Five points from 10.9 xPts — the widest process-versus-results chasm in the division.

Video: Times IMORTAIS: o Nottingham Forest bicampeão europeu 🏆🏆 · Eurão

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

Manchester UnitedTottenham HotspurNottingham Forest
In the AIs' lists5 / 85 / 84 / 8
Points below xPts-2.5 to -3.9 shortfall-2.86 to -3.1 pts5 pts from 10.9–12.58 xPts
Founded187818821865
HeadquartersManchester, ManchesterLondonWest Bridgford
Put first byGemini, StepFun—Grok, DeepSeek

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Manchester City have 21 points from 13.2 xPts (+7.8), the mirror image of this list, and had nobody out or doubtful on 16 Oct.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, StepFun. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Fulham are 5.4 to 5.5 points under their xPts with nobody injured, so some of these shortfalls come from finishing and goalkeeping, not missing players.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, StepFun, Wenxin.
Source ↗

The models disagree on size, not order: Forest's xPts are 10.8 on Statz.ai, 10.9 on Football Edge and 12.58 on Understat, but the same four clubs fill the top four on all three.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Forest have scored 5 goals from chances worth 11.1 xG. The shortfall is in finishing, not in creating chances.

Noticed by:
Included it: StepFun. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Only one answer gives a days-lost table (BBC with Premier Injuries: Newcastle 640, Spurs 625, Man Utd 341). It also has Fulham on 377 days although Fulham had nobody out, so it may cover another season. Not used in the order.

Noticed by:
Included it: StepFun. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Premier League Clubs Whose Results Fall Furthest Short of Their Chances, Shown Next to Their Injury Load

2Why this topic

It puts the 'bad luck' table (xG) and the 'thin squad' table (injuries) side by side, so the reader can see which clubs are unlucky, which are short of players, and which have a deeper problem. Neither table shows that alone.

3Where it applies

Premier League 2026/27, matches played up to 21 October 2026

4What we looked at

  • Gap between actual points and expected points (xPts) built from xG created and conceded
  • Days lost to injury and number of separate injuries, not counting suspensions
  • Share of the usual strongest XI missing on a typical matchday, weighted by minutes those players normally play
  • Goals conceded per game when first-choice defenders are missing, compared with when they play
  • Statz.ai xG table — Actual points against expected points (xPts) after 7 matches, updated 19 Oct 2026
  • Football Edge xG table — Actual points, xPts and points +/- for every club after 7 matches
  • Understat — xPts built from shot-based xG for and against, a separate model
  • The Analyst (Opta) expected points table — Opta expected points and expected position after matchday 5

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    AFC Bournemouth

    6 points from 7 games against 12.1 expected: a 6.1-point shortfall, the biggest in the league, with four players out and none doubtful.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Nottingham Forest

    Their chances were worth about 10.8 points and they have 5. The back line is part-broken (Savona out, Milenkovic a doubt) and they have lost three league games in a row.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Fulham

    They are 5.5 points short of their xPts with almost no one out. Their gap is the one injuries explain least.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Sunderland

    Four points from games worth 9.1 on chance quality, with two out and two doubtful.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Manchester United

    Winless in six with 7 points against 10.9 xPts. Three players are out and four doubtful before Como, and Lisandro Martinez left at half-time against Leeds.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Tottenham Hotspur

    Six players out, the longest list in the league on 16 Oct, with a 3.1-point shortfall.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Coventry City

    Four out, including defenders Amenda and Woolfenden, and a small 0.7-point shortfall.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Brentford

    Almost exactly on their xPts (10 vs 10.4), with six players out or doubtful.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Aston Villa

    A rounding-error gap (-0.1) alongside three out and two doubtful.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Ipswich Town

    The smallest overperformer on the table (+0.6) and the only club with no one out or doubtful on 16 Oct besides Man City.

    Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Manchester City have 21 points from 7 games against 13.2 xPts, a 7.8-point overperformance. That is the mirror image of Bournemouth's 6.1-point shortfall, and City had no one out or doubtful on 16 Oct.

Source ↗

Fulham are 5.5 points under their xPts with no one out. Injuries do not explain every shortfall, so some of these gaps are probably finishing and goalkeeping luck.

Source ↗

Tottenham had six players out on 16 Oct, the most of any club, and sit on 6 points against 9.1 xPts.

Source ↗

Arsenal lead the xPts table (13.8) but are without Saliba until about 21 November and Hincapie and Tzolis until about 1 November.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Manchester United (Premier League 2026/27)

    A 6.8-point deficit between expected and actual points coincides with losing 58% of first-choice outfield defensive minutes to the treatment table.

  2. 2
    Tottenham Hotspur (Premier League 2026/27)

    A high defensive line and persistent soft-tissue casualties produced an underperformance of 5.9 points beneath their underlying chance quality.

  3. 3
    Crystal Palace (Premier League 2026/27)

    Persistent attacking wastefulness paired with key defensive absences left the side 5.4 points short of what their match xG profile deserved.

  4. 4
    Chelsea (Premier League 2026/27)

    Despite generating the fourth highest xG in the division, 12 separate injuries and finishing variance created a 4.9-point shortfall.

  5. 5
    Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League 2026/27)

    Dominating possession metrics failed to prevent a 4.6-point deficit while juggling recurring injuries to their fullback rotation.

  6. 6
    Newcastle United (Premier League 2026/27)

    A demanding physical style extracted 330 days lost in recovery, resulting in an expected points gap of 4.2.

  7. 7
    Everton (Premier League 2026/27)

    A thin squad depth meant missing defensive pillars inflated concession rates by 0.70 goals per match, costing 3.9 expected points.

  8. 8
    Wolverhampton Wanderers (Premier League 2026/27)

    Underperforming xG by 3.6 points while enduring a 34% depletion of their starting outfield spine.

  9. 9
    Arsenal (Premier League 2026/27)

    Even elite structural control could not prevent a 3.3-point shortfall when key defensive transitions were interrupted by injuries.

  10. 10
    West Ham United (Premier League 2026/27)

    A 3.1-point lag between underlying metrics and actual returns coincided with backline reshuffles across early autumn fixtures.

What Gemini noticed

Manchester United's 6.8-point shortfall against xPts represents the widest negative disparity across the Premier League up to late October 2026.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Nottingham Forest

    5 points from 12.58 xPts after seven games — the largest shortfall in the division

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    AFC Bournemouth

    6 points against 12.34 xPts despite creating the league’s third-highest xG

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Fulham

    5 points from 9.64 xPts with attacking output not converting

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Sunderland

    4 points versus 8.46 xPts in their first season back

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Manchester United

    7 points from 9.97 xPts while missing an entire first-choice defensive line for the Como Champions League fixture

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Tottenham Hotspur

    Highest games missed through injury (363) and a +2.86 xPts shortfall

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Coventry City

    Modest +1.03 shortfall but limited squad depth after promotion

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Newcastle United

    Second-highest games missed (278) with modest underperformance

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Liverpool

    Slight shortfall amid absences for Isak, Gakpo, Szoboszlai and long-term cases

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Aston Villa

    Near-neutral xPts but multiple defensive and midfield absences including Onana (ACL)

    Source ↗

What Grok noticed

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth lead the underperformance list by a clear margin after seven matches, both creating more than they have converted.

Source ↗

Tottenham’s 363 games missed is more than double most mid-table clubs and remains the clearest multi-year injury burden in the league.

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Manchester United’s current defensive crisis (Martinez, Shaw, Dorgu and others) coincides with a three-point shortfall relative to xPts.

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🇨🇳 StepFun10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by StepFun alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Manchester United 2026/27

    Nine first-team players missed the trip to Como — and Opta's model still had them fourth on expected points.

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  2. 2
    Newcastle United 2026/27

    Bottom of the expected-points table and top of the days-lost table at the same time: 640 days gone.

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  3. 3
    Tottenham Hotspur 2026/27

    20th in the real table, 12th on expected points, 625 days lost to injury.

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  4. 4
    Nottingham Forest 2026/27

    Five goals from chances worth 11.1 xG — the worst finishing in the Premier League.

  5. 5
    AFC Bournemouth 2026/27

    The model's biggest underperformer in the division: 6.16 points below expected.

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  6. 6
    Sunderland 2026/27

    10.4 expected points, six on the board — a promoted side living on scraps.

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  7. 7
    Chelsea 2026/27

    2.7 goals short of expected, 14 injuries already — and beaten 3-0 at Forest.

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  8. 8
    Aston Villa 2026/27

    432 days lost to 16 separate injuries — the fourth-heaviest absence load in the league.

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  9. 9
    Crystal Palace 2026/27

    Bottom of the league for xG difference and carrying 15 separate injuries.

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  10. 10
    Brighton & Hove Albion 2026/27

    514 days lost to injury — and still the highest xG in the league.

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What StepFun noticed

Manchester United have kept one clean sheet in ten games and five different players have started at left-back — while nine first-team players, including Martinez, Shaw, Heaven, Mainoo, Rashford, Dorgu and Sesko, missed the Como trip.

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Newcastle's 640 days lost is the heaviest load in the league, yet the same club sits bottom of the expected-points table — the two measures that matter most in this ranking point the same way for once.

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Nottingham Forest have scored five goals from chances worth 11.1 xG; finishing, not chance creation, is what is costing them the table.

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Manchester City have turned 13.2 expected points into 21 actual points (+7.8), the mirror image of every club on this list — proof that xPts gaps cut both ways early in a season.

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🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Nottingham Forest

    Five points from 10.9 xPts — the widest process-versus-results chasm in the division.

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  2. 2
    Bournemouth

    Six points from 11.4 xPts — the second-biggest underperformance, with a thin attacking injury list.

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  3. 3
    Fulham

    Five points from 10.4 xPts — the third-widest gap, but the cleanest injury sheet in the league.

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  4. 4
    Sunderland

    Four points from 8.4 xPts — the worst actual tally in the league, yet not the worst xPts gap.

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  5. 5
    Tottenham Hotspur

    Six points from 9.1 xPts — a -3.1 gap and five senior players currently out.

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  6. 6
    Manchester United

    Seven points from 9.5 xPts — a -2.5 gap, made worse by a defensive injury crisis before the Como trip.

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  7. 7
    Coventry City

    Six points from 7.0 xPts — a modest -1.0 gap, but four players are currently unavailable.

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  8. 8
    Brentford

    Ten points from 10.2 xPts — almost exactly par, but three injuries and four doubts.

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  9. 9
    Aston Villa

    Eight points from 8.0 xPts — exactly par, but eight players are on the injury report.

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  10. 10
    Crystal Palace

    Seven points from 6.8 xPts — one of only two teams in this group outperforming their chances.

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What DeepSeek noticed

Nottingham Forest are the clearest example of results lagging chances: 10.9 xPts would put them fifth, but their 5 actual points leave them 19th.

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Fulham have the third-worst xPts gap (-5.4) but the league's cleanest injury sheet — zero injured players — showing that underperformance is not simply an injury story.

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Manchester United's -2.5 gap is smaller than their crisis suggests: their 9.5 xPts is only sixth-best, and their 7 points is 13th in the table.

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Bournemouth and Sunderland have the two worst actual points totals in this top 10, yet both have positive xG differences, pointing to finishing and goalkeeping as the drag.

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