Monaco lead the points-per-game pace while ranking only 13th for xG per match (1.32). Finishing, not chance volume, is carrying them.
Back to the trend of the day: Struggling giant Marseille visits Angers today in France's top league (in Hindi)
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Ligue 1 xG table 2026-27: points vs expected points
Monaco have 14 points from six games on chances worth only 7.3 to 10.1 expected points, while bottom club Le Havre have 2 from chances worth 5.5 to 8.6.
- No. 1: Marseille
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Marseille
Uncertain, and about fair: 6 points against 6.7 (Understat) and about 7.7 (statz) expected, so the models disagree on the size and sign of any goal-difference gap.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: see list · Grok: 10 · Gemini: 1 · MiMo: 5 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 8
What each AI noted 6
- Claude
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - Grokplace 10
6 points close to their ~6.7 xPts despite defensive xGA overperformance
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Punished by a severe 6.0-point xPts deficit, sitting 13th with 6 points despite underlying chance creation worthy of 3rd place (~12.0 xPts across both models).
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 5
Nine goals scored, eight conceded — a positive goal difference — and 14th with six points, the worst return in France for its goal difference.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 1
Six games, a +1 goal difference and 14th place — three of OM's four defeats came by a single goal.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
Three points from 7.8 xPts is the biggest xPts gap in the cut, but the xGD gap is only +0.5 — hence uncertain.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 2
AS Monaco
Most flattered by results: 14 points from 6 games against 7.3 (statz), 8.0 (Understat) and 10.1 expected. Goal difference +5 against a statz xGD of -1.6.
Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Grok: 1 · MiMo: 1 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 1
14 points from an xPts of 7.3 on statz and 10.1 on the other model: the biggest flattering gap, with a +5 goal difference against an xGD of -1.6.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
14 points from 6 games against roughly 8 xPts — the clearest overperformance across providers
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 1
Top of Ligue 1 with 14 points from six games — and 10 goals scored from 7.19 xG, the biggest finishing overperformance in France.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 5
Unbeaten and third on the 13th-best attack by xG — 10 goals from 1.32 expected per game.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
13 points from 6.2 xPts, and a +5 goal difference from an xGD of -0.4 — the largest overperformance in the equal-games cut.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 3
Le Havre
Most punished by results: 2 points from 6 games against 5.5 to 8.6 expected, and 4 goals from about 9.9 xG.
Included it: Claude, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Grok: 3 · MiMo: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 4
2 points where the models expect 5.5–8.6: the club most punished by results, though the size of the gap differs.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Only 2 points from performances worth roughly 5–8.6 xPts — the biggest underperformance
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 3
Four goals from 9.94 xG — 5.9 goals of expectation left unspent, the worst in France — and last with two points.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 2
Bottom of France with the 6th-best chance creation: 1.63 xG a game, four goals.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
Two points from 6.7 xPts; the xG numbers are poor, but the points are even poorer.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 4
Brest
9 points from 7 games, but every model expects more: 10.7 to 13.0 xPts. Statz rates them 2nd on expected points.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 2 · MiMo: see list · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 6
Second on statz expected points (11.7) but 8th–9th with 9: both models say they deserve more.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
9 points while models give them around 13 xPts
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Flattered by a +4.8 point surplus in 6th place (13 pts), outperforming an 8.2 xPts projection through exceptional goalkeeping and unsustainable box efficiency.
- MiMo
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - DeepSeekplace 7
Five points from 9.0 xPts with a positive xGD but a negative actual goal difference.
Source ↗
5 AIs put it here - 5
PSG
Uncertain: PSG create the most (2.40 xG a game) but score below that, while Understat's 14.03 xPts matches their 14 points.
Included it: Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Grok: see list · Gemini: see list · MiMo: 9 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: see list
What each AI noted 5
- Grok
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - Gemini
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - MiMoplace 9
OddAlerts call Paris FC the best defence in Ligue 1 (4.98 xGA); FootyStats hand that title to PSG — so sixth place cannot be scored either way.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 6
Top by xG (2.40 per game, clear of Rennes' 1.87) but only three points clear of fourth and beaten at home by Monaco.
Source ↗ - DeepSeek
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list
5 AIs put it here - 6
Stade Rennais
13 points from 6 games against 8.2 to 9.8 expected. Statz and thefishy agree within 0.2 on how lucky Rennes have been.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, MiMo. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · MiMo: 4
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 3
13 points against about 8.3 expected; the two models agree to within 0.2 on how lucky they have been.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
13 points versus roughly 10 xPts
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Shedding nearly 4 expected points (8 actual vs 11.7 xPts), creating high-value chances that have yielded only 8 goals from 11.2 xG.
- MiMoplace 4
13 points from six games on a +2 goal difference — no club in Ligue 1 collects more points per goal of difference.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 7
Troyes
A -11 goal difference, the league's worst, against a statz xGD of only -2.2. Their 4 points trail 5.3 to 7.9 expected.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 6 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 10
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 5
A -11 goal difference against an xGD of about -2: shots and chances say they are not nearly that bad.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
Low points but underperforming their xG significantly
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 3
17th with mid-table attacking numbers — 1.51 xG per game, five goals, one win.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
Four points from 5.6 xPts and a -7 goal difference from -3.3 xGD — punished at both ends.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 8
Toulouse
9 points from 7 games against 10.5 to 13.0 expected. Statz and thefishy agree on a shortfall of about 1.5 points, and Understat makes it 4.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, MiMo, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 4
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 9
A steady 1.5-point shortfall in both models: 9 points against about 10.5 expected.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
9 points with models indicating closer to 13 xPts
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Trapped in the relegation play-off zone (17th, 5 pts) despite underlying numbers (8.6 xPts) arguing they belong comfortably in 11th.
- DeepSeekplace 4
Five points from 8.9 xPts and seven goals from 9.4 xG — the clearest case of results punishing performance.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 9
Lille
14 points from 7 games against 9.2 to 11.3 expected: flattered by 2.7 to 4.8 points. The models disagree on Lille's xG (9.2 vs about 5.5).
Included it: Claude, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Grok: 2 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 2
Unbeaten-ish at 14 points from 7 on 9.2 xG created: results flatter them by 2.7–4.8 points.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
14 points while underlying models suggest closer to 10 xPts
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
Ten points from 6.8 xPts and four goals more than xG — quietly the second-biggest overperformance.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 10
Le Mans
The promoted side has 6 points from 7 games, and both xPts models give them 8.2 to 8.4, a near-identical shortfall of about 2 points.
Included it: Claude, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, DeepSeek, Wenxin.2 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Le Havre are 6th in Ligue 1 for chance creation (1.63 xG a game), ahead of Lyon, Lille and Marseille, yet bottom with 4 goals and 2 points.
Marseille's 14th place looks roughly earned. Their points sit within 0.7 to 1.7 of expected, and their 1-point gap to Angers comes from three one-goal defeats.
Paris FC show no luck gap: 11 points against 11.1 expected, behind the best expected defence on statz (5.0 xGA in 6 games).
The models agree on direction but not size. Monaco's surplus is +6.7 on statz and +3.9 on thefishy, and Le Havre's shortfall is -6.6 against -3.5. FBref could not be opened (403) for three of the AIs.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Ligue 1 clubs whose table position and underlying performance disagree most
2Why this topic
No single table compares the real standings with two different xG models, so readers can see which places are earned and which are luck, including whether Marseille is truly a 13th-place side.
3Where it applies
France, Ligue 1 2026-27, after the same number of rounds
4What we looked at
- Gap between actual points and expected points (xPts)
- Gap between actual goal difference and expected goal difference (xGD)
- Agreement across two xG providers; clubs where the providers disagree are marked as uncertain rather than ranked high
- Only clubs that have played the same number of games are compared
- statz.ai — xG for and against, plus expected points from a Poisson model on Sportmonks shot data (updated 18 Oct 2026)
- thefishy.co.uk — A second xPts model with per-game xG and xGA; provider not named. Angers and Marseille appear to include today's game.
- Understat — xG, xGA and expected points (one AI read values here, two found the table empty)
- OddAlerts — xG, xGA, xPts and goals minus xG for each club
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Monaco (AS Monaco)
14 points from an xPts of 7.3 on statz and 10.1 on the other model: the biggest flattering gap, with a +5 goal difference against an xGD of -1.6.
Source ↗ - 2Lille (LOSC)
Unbeaten-ish at 14 points from 7 on 9.2 xG created: results flatter them by 2.7–4.8 points.
Source ↗ - 3Rennes (Stade Rennais)
13 points against about 8.3 expected; the two models agree to within 0.2 on how lucky they have been.
Source ↗ - 4Le Havre (Le Havre AC)
2 points where the models expect 5.5–8.6: the club most punished by results, though the size of the gap differs.
Source ↗ - 5Troyes
A -11 goal difference against an xGD of about -2: shots and chances say they are not nearly that bad.
Source ↗ - 6Brest (Stade Brestois 29)
Second on statz expected points (11.7) but 8th–9th with 9: both models say they deserve more.
Source ↗ - 7Le Mans (FC Le Mans)
The promoted side is on 6 points with an xPts of 8.2–8.4, in both tables.
Source ↗ - 8Auxerre (AJ Auxerre)
Goal difference -8 against about -4: a leaky defence that the models say is a bit unlucky.
Source ↗ - 9Toulouse (Toulouse FC)
A steady 1.5-point shortfall in both models: 9 points against about 10.5 expected.
Source ↗ - 10Lyon (Olympique Lyonnais)
A +7 goal difference, best in the league, against an xGD of +4.2: the points gap is small, the goal gap is not.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Monaco are top-3 on 14 points with only 7.2 xG created, the lowest in the table bar Lorient and Nice.
Paris FC have the best defence on statz (5.0 xGA in 6 games), and their actual and expected points agree (11 vs 11.1): a rare club with no luck gap.
Troyes' -11 goal difference is the worst in the league, but statz has them creating about as much as they concede, so the table likely exaggerates them.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1AS Monaco
14 points from 6 games against roughly 8 xPts — the clearest overperformance across providers
Source ↗ - 2LOSC Lille
14 points while underlying models suggest closer to 10 xPts
Source ↗ - 3Le Havre AC
Only 2 points from performances worth roughly 5–8.6 xPts — the biggest underperformance
Source ↗ - 4Stade Brestois 29
9 points while models give them around 13 xPts
Source ↗ - 5Stade Rennais
13 points versus roughly 10 xPts
Source ↗ - 6Troyes
Low points but underperforming their xG significantly
Source ↗ - 7Toulouse FC
9 points with models indicating closer to 13 xPts
Source ↗ - 8RC Strasbourg
Overperforming goals relative to xG while points remain modest
Source ↗ - 9Paris Saint-Germain
Results roughly match high underlying numbers (14 pts vs ~14 xPts)
Source ↗ - 10Olympique de Marseille
6 points close to their ~6.7 xPts despite defensive xGA overperformance
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Monaco’s early lead is the largest points-vs-xPts gap in the league so far.
Le Havre are widely flagged as the unluckiest side, with multiple models showing large xPts shortfalls.
Providers broadly agree on the direction of over/underperformance for the top and bottom clubs even when exact xPts numbers differ.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Olympique de Marseille
Punished by a severe 6.0-point xPts deficit, sitting 13th with 6 points despite underlying chance creation worthy of 3rd place (~12.0 xPts across both models).
Source ↗ - 2Stade Brestois 29
Flattered by a +4.8 point surplus in 6th place (13 pts), outperforming an 8.2 xPts projection through exceptional goalkeeping and unsustainable box efficiency.
- 3RC Lens
Stuck in 10th with 9 points while controlling matches to the tune of 13.3 xPts and a +5.0 xGD, derailed by wastefulness in front of goal.
- 4Paris Saint-Germain
Leading the league with 19 points from 7 matches, running 3.3 points ahead of an already formidable 15.7 xPts due to world-class individual finishing.
- 5Angers SCO
Holding 12th place with 7 points despite a brutal -7 goal difference and generating only 5.2 xPts, leaving them vulnerable to regression.
Source ↗ - 6Stade Rennais FC
Shedding nearly 4 expected points (8 actual vs 11.7 xPts), creating high-value chances that have yielded only 8 goals from 11.2 xG.
- 7OGC Nice
Riding defensive overperformance into 4th (14 pts) despite both models projecting them for 10.6 xPts, conceding 4 goals from 7.5 xGA.
- 8RC Strasbourg Alsace
Conceding 12 actual goals from just 8.9 xGA, turning a mid-table expected profile (10.0 xPts) into a precarious 15th-place standing.
- 9AS Monaco
Collecting 16 points in 2nd place against an expected 13.1 xPts, driven by a blistering +3.6 goal conversion overperformance.
- 10Toulouse FC
Trapped in the relegation play-off zone (17th, 5 pts) despite underlying numbers (8.6 xPts) arguing they belong comfortably in 11th.
What Gemini noticed
Olympique de Marseille represents the single largest discrepancy in French football: their xPts tally of ~12.0 projects a top-three squad, yet poor finishing and goalkeeping variance leave them stranded in 13th.
Top-end clubs like PSG and Monaco regularly outscore their xG by 15% to 25% over a season because elite ball-strikers consistently outperform statistical average finishing curves.
🇨🇳 MiMo10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by MiMo alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1ASMonaco
Top of Ligue 1 with 14 points from six games — and 10 goals scored from 7.19 xG, the biggest finishing overperformance in France.
Source ↗ - 2ParisSaint-Germain
The league's biggest attack (17.34 xG) and its top expected-points total (12.47) — and only third in the real table.
Source ↗ - 3LeHavre AC
Four goals from 9.94 xG — 5.9 goals of expectation left unspent, the worst in France — and last with two points.
Source ↗ - 4StadeRennais FC
13 points from six games on a +2 goal difference — no club in Ligue 1 collects more points per goal of difference.
Source ↗ - 5Olympiquede Marseille
Nine goals scored, eight conceded — a positive goal difference — and 14th with six points, the worst return in France for its goal difference.
Source ↗ - 6OlympiqueLyonnais
The best goal difference in Ligue 1 — +7 from six games — and only 11 points to show for it.
Source ↗ - 7FCLorient
Six goals in six games and eight points anyway — Lorient sit 10th while scoring at a rate bettered by almost everyone.
Source ↗ - 8OGCNice
Five goals in six games — the second-weakest attack in France — and Nice still sit above Strasbourg, Marseille and Angers.
Source ↗ - 9ParisFC
OddAlerts call Paris FC the best defence in Ligue 1 (4.98 xGA); FootyStats hand that title to PSG — so sixth place cannot be scored either way.
Source ↗ - 10StadeBrestois 29
13 goals scored — second-most in the division — and only nine points from seven games.
Source ↗
What MiMo noticed
PSGtop Ligue 1 on both expected goals (17.34, 2.48 per game) and expected points (12.47, 2.08 per game) yet sat third before Sunday — ESPN's form analysis describes their results as pretty unfortunate given the underlying xG numbers.
Monaco lead the real table with 14 points from six unbeaten games while scoring 10 goals from 7.19 xG (+2.8) — the largest finishing overperformance in France, and the reason xgstat could write that Monaco top the real table but PSG lead on expected points.
LeHavre are bottom on 2 points with the worst finishing gap in the league — 4 goals from 9.94 xG (−5.9) — so one model expects regression to lift them even though the table says last.
Themismatches outside the xG tables are just as large: Rennes bank 13 points from a +2 goal difference while Marseille carry a positive goal difference (+1) and sit 14th — a gap of five and six places respectively between goal-difference rank and points rank.
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Olympique de Marseille (OM)
Six games, a +1 goal difference and 14th place — three of OM's four defeats came by a single goal.
Source ↗ - 2Le Havre AC (HAC)
Bottom of France with the 6th-best chance creation: 1.63 xG a game, four goals.
Source ↗ - 3ESTAC Troyes
17th with mid-table attacking numbers — 1.51 xG per game, five goals, one win.
Source ↗ - 4OGC Nice
11th on the league's third-worst scoring rate — five goals from 1.36 xG a game.
Source ↗ - 5AS Monaco
Unbeaten and third on the 13th-best attack by xG — 10 goals from 1.32 expected per game.
Source ↗ - 6Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)
Top by xG (2.40 per game, clear of Rennes' 1.87) but only three points clear of fourth and beaten at home by Monaco.
Source ↗ - 7RC Strasbourg Alsace
Twelve goals from the 14th-best xG attack — and a three-game losing streak anyway.
Source ↗ - 8RC Lens
Fourteen goals from 11.6 expected — clinical overperformance, yet 7th and a sacked coach.
Source ↗ - 9Le Mans FC
Promoted and 15th — but already 10 goals from the league's second-lowest xG (1.20 a game).
Source ↗ - 10FC Lorient
Tenth with the worst attacking xG in Ligue 1 (1.13 a game) and a goal difference of zero.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
Le Havre are the statistical heartbreak of the season so far: 1.63 xGF per game is 6th-best in Ligue 1 — ahead of Lyon, Lille and Marseille — yet they have scored 4 goals and sit bottom with 2 points.
PSG's 2.40 xGF per match is 0.53 clear of second-placed Rennes (1.87) — a bigger gap than between 2nd and 7th — but PSG have scored 14 (about 2.8 below expectation) and lost at home to Monaco.
Marseille are the anti-Monaco: a +1 goal difference after six games would normally mean a top-eight start, but OM are 14th because three of their four defeats came by a single goal (2-3 v Paris FC, 1-2 v PSG, 0-1 at Rennes).
Monaco are unbeaten (4W 2D, 3rd) despite the 13th-ranked attack by xG (1.32 per game) — the clearest case of finishing, not chance volume, carrying results.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1AS Monaco (Ligue 1 2026-27)
13 points from 6.2 xPts, and a +5 goal difference from an xGD of -0.4 — the largest overperformance in the equal-games cut.
Source ↗ - 2RC Strasbourg Alsace (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Seven points from 4.4 xPts, with 10 goals from 6.3 xG — the most clinical finish in the table.
Source ↗ - 3Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Eight goals from 11.3 xG and eight points from 9.9 xPts: the biggest negative xG gap belongs to the champions.
Source ↗ - 4Toulouse FC (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Five points from 8.9 xPts and seven goals from 9.4 xG — the clearest case of results punishing performance.
Source ↗ - 5Lille OSC (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Ten points from 6.8 xPts and four goals more than xG — quietly the second-biggest overperformance.
Source ↗ - 6RC Lens (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Seven points from 9.0 xPts despite creating 12.1 xG; the table undersells the chance volume.
Source ↗ - 7Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Five points from 9.0 xPts with a positive xGD but a negative actual goal difference.
Source ↗ - 8Olympique de Marseille (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Three points from 7.8 xPts is the biggest xPts gap in the cut, but the xGD gap is only +0.5 — hence uncertain.
Source ↗ - 9Le Havre AC (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Two points from 6.7 xPts; the xG numbers are poor, but the points are even poorer.
Source ↗ - 10ES Troyes AC (Ligue 1 2026-27)
Four points from 5.6 xPts and a -7 goal difference from -3.3 xGD — punished at both ends.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
Strasbourg scored 10 goals from 6.3 xG and took 7 points from 4.4 xPts; that is the biggest goals-minus-xG overperformance in the table, even if Monaco's points gap is larger.
PSG created 11.3 xG but scored 8, the largest negative goals-minus-xG gap (-3.3); their eight points from 9.9 xPts also makes them the biggest underperformer among the leading clubs.
Toulouse had 9.4 xG but scored 7 and took 5 points from 8.9 xPts — the clearest 'results punish performance' case in the equal-games cut.
Monaco's 13 points from 6.2 xPts is the largest overperformance, but the xG models are not equally extreme: MatchPulse has Monaco at -0.4 xGD, while StatMuse has them around level.