与市场差距最大的是G2电子竞技:在拳头游戏榜单上排第四(1,480分),但战绩跌到1胜2负后,定价只剩约0.4美分,两场失利都是单局决胜。另有一个来源报价为4.8美分。
2026英雄联盟全球总决赛积分榜:夺冠概率与实力榜对比
拳头游戏的模型认为韩华生命电竞比Gen.G高出两分,但市场给Gen.G约41%的夺冠概率,给韩华生命电竞(HLE)10.5%。韩华生命电竞现在再输一场就要被淘汰。
- 第1名:Gen.G
- 10 个名次
01最终榜单
领先的 AI 各自独立编制了十项榜单。这里是一份便于核对的汇总:每个名次都有理由、来源,以及列入它的 AI。
排序依据:按 AI 认同度从高到低。
亮色标签表示该 AI 把这一项列入了自己的榜单,暗色标签表示没有。
- 1
Gen.G
市场上排第一,夺冠概率约41%,但在拳头游戏榜单上排第二,比韩华生命电竞少两分。他们目前3胜0负,最近一场三局两胜以2比1战胜LYON。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 1 · Meta: 1 · Grok: 1 · MiMo: 1 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 1 · Z.ai: 1 · Qwen: 1
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 1 名
Priced at 41% to win, about 2.5 times the next team, yet only second in the form proxy: the market trusts them more than the ratings do.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 1 名
41% Polymarket leader from GPR 2nd (1,519 pts) – first to 3-0 with Bo3 win over LYON
- Grok第 1 名
41 cents to win Worlds, and only two Riot points behind the team the market has already marked down.
来源 ↗ - MiMo第 1 名
Riotcalls them No. 2 by two points; the market calls them No. 1 at double anyone else's price — and they are already through at 3-0.
来源 ↗ - Kimi第 1 名
Riot has them 2nd by two points, but the market made them the 38% champion before Sunday and they finished the job 3-0.
- DeepSeek第 1 名
Riot's No. 2 and the market's No. 1: a 3–0 Swiss and a 34–38% title price make Gen.G the only team both systems agree on at the very top.
- Z.ai第 1 名
The only team top-two on both boards — 40% on Kalshi, 1542 points on Riot's model — and 3-0 through a Swiss bracket that has already eliminated nobody quietly.
来源 ↗ - Qwen第 1 名
Ranked #2 in power but owns the #1 market price at 33.5%, reflecting their pristine 3-0 Swiss start and deep BO5 pedigree.
来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 2
韩华生命电竞(HLE)
拳头游戏榜单第一(1,544分),市场上却只有10.5美分,较周六约20%的水平大幅回落。他们两场单局决胜分别输给Gen.G和不朽电子竞技(IG),战绩1胜2负。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 2 · Meta: 2 · Grok: 5 · MiMo: 2 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 3 · Z.ai: 5 · Qwen: 2
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 2 名
First in the form proxy as MSI champions, but the market puts them fourth or fifth at 11%, so the ratings favour them more than the market does.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 2 名
Riot's #1 at 1,540 pts but market slips to 18% after 1-2 Swiss with Bo1 upset to IG
来源 ↗ - Grok第 5 名
Riot's No. 1 at 1,544 points, then 10.5 cents and 1-2 after two single games.
- MiMo第 2 名
The only team Riot ranks No. 1 (1,544 pts) that the market prices third at 12–17.5¢ — and they arrive there with a 1-2 Swiss record.
来源 ↗ - Kimi第 4 名
Riot’s No. 1 is now 1-2: two Swiss losses, one to Gen.G and one to IG, yet the market had not fully dumped them.
- DeepSeek第 3 名
Riot's No. 1 at 1,540 points is only the market's No. 3–4 at about 17% after an 0–2 week against Gen.G and Invictus Gaming.
- Z.ai第 5 名
Riot's model crowns them No.1 at 1544 points — the scoreboard says 1-2, all in Bo1s, and Kalshi's board has dipped to 12%.
- Qwen第 2 名
The consensus #1 power-ranked team trades at just 17.5% to win, a market discount driven by Gen.G's heavier global betting volume.
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 3
T1
市场上以16美分排第二,但在拳头游戏榜单上只排第五(1,470分)。这相当于三个名次的品牌溢价。战绩1胜1负,其中单局决胜输给了Dplus KIA。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude · Meta · Grok: 2 · MiMo: 5 · Kimi · DeepSeek: 4 · Z.ai · Qwen: 3
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- Meta
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- Grok第 2 名
Still second in the title market at 16 cents after losing one game.
来源 ↗ - MiMo第 5 名
Ratedfifth by Riot but priced second at 16–19¢ — a three-place gap the market keeps paying for the three-time defending champion.
来源 ↗ - Kimi
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- DeepSeek第 4 名
No. 5 with Riot, No. 3–4 with traders at about 17–18%, and 1–1 after losing to DK — the brand premium is still real, but the form is not yet.
来源 ↗ - Z.ai
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- Qwen第 3 名
Despite sitting #5 in algorithmic power rankings, the defending champions command a massive 19% win probability due to unmatched BO5 market faith.
来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 4
Dplus KIA
市场上以13美分排第三,但在拳头游戏榜单上排第七(1,438分)。他们率先取得3胜0负,不过这三场胜利中有两场是单局决胜。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 4 · Meta: 3 · Grok: 3 · MiMo: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 5 · Z.ai: 2 · Qwen: 6
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 4 名
The only 3-0 team in the latest Liquipedia snapshot, and the market already prices them third (13%) against seventh in the form proxy.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 3 名
Tied 7th in GPR at 1,409 yet first to 3-0 with pentakill by Smash vs MKOI
- Grok第 3 名
First team into the quarterfinals, 13 cents to win the title, seventh on Riot's board.
- MiMo第 3 名
Seventh on Riot's sheet, fourth in the market — and the first team into the quarterfinals after a 2-0 Bo3 sweep of Movistar KOI.
来源 ↗ - Kimi第 2 名
The LCK’s fourth seed was 7th in Riot’s model but left Sunday as the first 3-0 qualifier.
- DeepSeek第 5 名
Riot No. 7 and market No. 6 at about 5%, but 3–0 and the only team to beat T1 — the market is slowly catching up to the form.
- Z.ai第 2 名
Riot's model ranks them seventh; the market says 13¢, third-best — and they swept Movistar KOI 2-0 in a Bo3 to qualify 3-0 without dropping a series.
- Qwen第 6 名
A 3-0 Swiss sweep vaults them past their #8 power ranking, yet the market keeps their title odds modest at ~3% due to historical playoff volatility.
来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 5
哔哩哔哩电竞(BLG)
两份榜单难得一致的地方之一:在拳头游戏榜单上排第三(1,504分),市场上以10.5美分并列第四。他们1胜1负,单局决胜中输给了Movistar KOI。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 5 · Meta: 5 · Grok: 4 · MiMo: 4 · Kimi: 5 · DeepSeek: 2 · Z.ai: 4 · Qwen: 4
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 5 名
Third in the form proxy and credited with the best win-loss record in Riot's model, yet priced at only 11% after a first-round loss to Movistar KOI.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 5 名
GPR 3rd at 1,513 pts matches +400 market (20%) but Bo1 loss to MKOI broke LPL 0-4
- Grok第 4 名
Third on the power ranking, tied for fourth in the market at 10.5 cents.
来源 ↗ - MiMo第 4 名
Riot's No. 3 and the market's No. 3 agree — but the 1-1 record includes a Bo1 loss to a team Riot ranks 16th.
来源 ↗ - Kimi第 5 名
China’s highest-rated club is only 1-1, but the market still kept BLG inside the published top five.
来源 ↗ - DeepSeek第 2 名
Riot No. 3, market No. 2 at about 18%, but the 1–1 record includes a loss to Movistar KOI — the gap is confidence in the roster, not the form.
来源 ↗ - Z.ai第 4 名
A 49-12 season (.803) and GPR #3, yet Polymarket trimmed them to 17% after Movistar KOI's opening-night ambush.
- Qwen第 4 名
Holds the #3 power spot and 16.5% market share, though the market hesitates after their Day 1 BO1 upset loss to Movistar KOI.
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 6
Anyone's Legend(AL)
英雄联盟职业联赛冠军在拳头游戏榜单上排第十(1,384分),市场上为2.1美分。他们0胜2负,下一场是对阵Team Liquid的三局两胜淘汰战。
已列入: Claude, Grok, Nemotron, MiMo, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 8 · Grok: 9 · Nemotron: 9 · MiMo · DeepSeek: 10 · Wenxin: 3 · Z.ai: 7 · Qwen: 8
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 8 名
The LPL champions are fourth in the form proxy but 2% in the market, and they were the 0-2 team that a Karmine Corp upset sent into trouble.
来源 ↗ - Grok第 9 名
The LPL champions are 2.1 cents, and 0-2 with an elimination series still to play.
来源 ↗ - Nemotron第 9 名
Power rank #6 but 4% odds — LPL champs' 0-1 start creates largest negative gap
来源 ↗ - MiMo
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- DeepSeek第 10 名
Riot No. 7 and market No. 5 at about 5%, but 0–2 and one loss from elimination — the market is pricing the roster, not the record.
来源 ↗ - Wenxin第 3 名
Ranked top-10 by Riot but priced like a dark horse — the LPL Day 1 collapse inflated the odds gap to 6+ ranks
- Z.ai第 7 名
Priced 5-7% as Chinese champions a week ago — two Bo1 losses later, Sunday night's elimination Bo3 vs Team Liquid is their season.
- Qwen第 8 名
Priced at 5% to win despite a #10 power ranking and a Day 1 loss to Karmine Corp, showing residual market respect for LPL BO5 resilience.
来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 7
Karmine Corp(KC)
拳头游戏榜单排第八(1,415分),但在Polymarket上的价格接近1%,博彩公司的赔率为126.00。他们1胜1负,战胜了Anyone's Legend(AL),输给了LYON。
已列入: Claude, Meta, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Grok, Nemotron.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 10 · Meta: 9 · MiMo: 9 · Kimi · DeepSeek: 8 · Wenxin: 5 · Z.ai · Qwen: 10
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 10 名
Twelfth in the form proxy and about 1% in the market, but they beat Anyone's Legend, the Chinese champions, in Round 1.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 9 名
GPR 10th at 1,375 pts from Play-In 3-0 Bo5s – market longshot but 1-1 Swiss after beating AL
来源 ↗ - MiMo第 9 名
Riot's 8th at 1,415 points with a 4-1 tournament record — while Europe's whole region holds 3% of the winner market.
来源 ↗ - Kimi
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- DeepSeek第 8 名
Riot No. 7, market No. 10 at about 1%, 1–1 after losing to LYON — the Play-In winner is still priced as a long shot.
来源 ↗ - Wenxin第 5 名
Ranked below the LPL giants but priced above them — beating Anyone's Legend flipped the odds-vs-power gap negative for two teams
- Z.ai
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
- Qwen第 10 名
Fueled by a massive fanbase and a Day 1 win over Anyone's Legend, but their ~1% odds reflect skepticism that their LEC form translates to deep BO5 runs.
来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次 - 8
LYON
在拳头游戏榜单上排第六(1,442分),是榜单上排名最高的西方赛区队伍,但定价只有2.1美分。他们战绩2胜1负,三局两胜中从Gen.G手里拿下一局。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, MiMo, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 6 · Meta: 8 · Grok: 7 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 9 · Z.ai: 6 · Qwen: 9
每个 AI 的看法 7
- Claude第 6 名
Ninth in the form proxy but 2% in the market, and a 2-0 start that included beating Karmine Corp suggests the market is catching up.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 8 名
GPR 6th at 1,445 pts vs market +3300 (2.9%) but 2-0 with Bo1 wins over TSW and KC
来源 ↗ - Grok第 7 名
Took a game off Gen.G in a real series and stayed at 2.1 cents.
来源 ↗ - Kimi第 6 名
The LCS runner-up went from ranking-page curiosity to 2-1 and took Gen.G to three games before falling.
- DeepSeek第 9 名
Riot No. 6, market outside the top 10 at about 1%, 2–1 — the largest raw divergence between rating and price in the field.
来源 ↗ - Z.ai第 6 名
Sixth in the world per Riot — the one ranking that made fans ask Riot to 'just retire this power ranking system.'
- Qwen第 9 名
Mirrors KOI at 2-0 in the Swiss standings, but their <1% title odds prove the market heavily discounts LCS/LEC BO1 darlings for the knockout stage.
来源 ↗
7 个 AI 列入此名次 - 9
顶级电子竞技(TES)
拳头游戏榜单排第十一(1,366分),市场上为1.4美分,但战绩2胜1负。英雄联盟职业联赛赛区首日0比4全败后,他们逐渐回升,其中包括单局决胜击败G2电子竞技。
已列入: Grok, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Qwen. 未列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, Wenxin.在各自榜单中的名次: Grok: 8 · MiMo: 8 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: 7 · Z.ai: 9 · Qwen: 5
每个 AI 的看法 6
- Grok第 8 名
2-1 in single games, including a win over G2, priced at 1.4 cents.
来源 ↗ - MiMo第 8 名
From a historic 0-4 LPL opening day to 2-1: the only Swiss team with a win over G2, and Riot has them 11th.
- Kimi第 8 名
TES repaired an 0-1 start with two straight wins, including knocking G2 to the brink.
- DeepSeek第 7 名
Riot No. 13, market No. 8 at about 1%, yet 2–1 and just beat G2 — the biggest positive gap in the top 10.
- Z.ai第 9 名
Riot has them 11th off a losing regular season (.528) — at Worlds they're 2-1 with wins over Anyone's Legend and G2.
来源 ↗ - Qwen第 5 名
Algorithmically the 4th strongest team, but priced at just ~6% to win after opening the Swiss stage with a Day 1 LPL collapse loss.
来源 ↗
6 个 AI 列入此名次 - 10
不朽电子竞技(IG)
市场上以5.3美分排第六,但在拳头游戏榜单上排第十四(1,350分),这是市场最偏爱它的一个差距。其战绩依靠的是对韩华生命电竞的一场单局决胜爆冷。
已列入: Claude, Meta, Grok, MiMo, Kimi, Z.ai. 未列入: ChatGPT, Nemotron, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 7 · Meta: 10 · Grok: 6 · MiMo: 10 · Kimi: 9 · Z.ai
每个 AI 的看法 6
- Claude第 7 名
Priced sixth at 5% while ranked tenth on form, a +4 gap built on a 2-1 start.
来源 ↗ - Meta第 10 名
Unranked in Sept top-10 GPR but 2-1 Swiss after upset over HLE – LPL recovery story
- Grok第 6 名
5.3 cents after a one-game win over the No. 1 team; Riot still has them 14th.
- MiMo第 10 名
Outside Riot's top 10 but inside the biggest Swiss crowd: their Gen.G match was Day 1's 1.6M peak.
- Kimi第 9 名
IG’s Sunday upset of Hanwha turned a ratings afterthought into the LPL’s cleanest 2-1 recovery.
- Z.ai
在它自己的列表中名称不同:请打开完整列表。
6 个 AI 列入此名次
02值得了解
AI 在编制榜单时注意到的内容。
英雄联盟职业联赛的四支队伍全部输掉了瑞士轮首场比赛。次日三支获胜,随后不朽电子竞技(IG)击败了拳头游戏榜单第一的韩华生命电竞。
两支3胜0负的队伍都通过三局两胜的比赛晋级,但Dplus KIA战胜T1的那场只打了一局。瑞士轮的三场胜利并非同等有力的证据。
拳头游戏榜单在10月25日凌晨更新,早于周日第三轮比赛,因此部分差距来自时间差:排名每周变动,价格则每场比赛后都会变化。
同一晚上,Gen.G的价格因平台而异:Polymarket榜单上为41美分,其摘要中为38.5%,Kalshi上为40%,赛前博彩赔率约为31%。
03大家常问的问题
2026年英雄联盟全球总决赛什么时候举行?
2026年全球总决赛从10月15日进行到11月14日。瑞士轮阶段为10月23日至31日,在艾伦(得克萨斯州)进行;决赛于11月14日在布鲁克林的巴克莱中心举行。
来源 ↗2026年英雄联盟全球总决赛目前的战绩如何?
10月25日之后,Gen.G和Dplus KIA以3胜0负晋级。不朽电子竞技(IG)、顶级电子竞技(TES)、LYON和Movistar KOI(MKOI)为2胜1负,韩华生命电竞和G2电子竞技为1胜2负,Anyone's Legend为0胜2负。
来源 ↗谁是2026年全球总决赛的热门夺冠者?
Gen.G在OddsDesk上约为41%,在Kalshi上为40%,领先于T1(16%至17%)和Dplus KIA(13%)。
来源 ↗为什么各网站的夺冠概率不一样?
Polymarket、Kalshi和博彩公司分别为同一问题定价,更新时间也不同。周日晚上,同一时段内Gen.G分别显示41美分、38.5%和40%。
来源 ↗04我们如何统计
用大白话讲,不用公式。
1问题
2026年全球总决赛十强队伍:战绩状态与夺冠概率对比
2为什么选这个话题
它能看出实力评分与实时夺冠市场在哪些地方一致、在哪些地方分歧,这是单独任何一个来源都看不出的。
3适用范围
2026年英雄联盟全球总决赛
4考量标准
- 将每支队伍的拳头游戏全球实力榜排名与其在实时市场中隐含的夺冠概率相比较,包括两者中各自的排名及差距。
- 以10月25日的瑞士轮战绩作为解读差距的背景,而不是另一份单独排名。
- 拳头游戏英雄联盟电竞全球实力榜——顶级赛区队伍的实力分,依据表现、比赛背景、近期状态、局内执行、对手实力和赛区实力计算。10月25日凌晨的
- OddsDesk 2026全球总决赛冠军市场——每支队伍夺冠的实时“是”价,按隐含概率计算。10月25日(周日)晚查看。
- Polymarket 2026全球总决赛冠军合约——同一冠军合约在Polymarket上的数据。榜单与页面摘要在同一时间显示的数字并不一致。
- Kalshi 2026全球总决赛冠军——一个独立的美国预测市场,以美分报价,按隐含概率折算。
- 2026全球总决赛瑞士轮阶段成绩——瑞士轮战绩仅作背景参考。第一、二轮为单局决胜;2胜0负和0胜2负的比赛为三局两胜。
5谁来排名
领先的 AI:Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Nemotron, MiMo, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Z.ai, Qwen。每个 AI 独立编制自己的十项榜单,并为每个名次注明来源。
6名次如何确定
不同 AI 以不同说法写出的同一项被视为一项。把某项列入榜单的 AI 越多、排得越靠前,它的名次就越高。“AI 共识”表示有多少个 AI 在自己的榜单中列入了该项。来源仅限 AI 自己找到的,没有任何人工添加。