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2026年10月下一任詹姆斯·邦德赔率：博彩公司与 Kalshi 对比

Kalshi交易者把杰克·洛登的胜算从8月12日的约26%推高到10月24日的58%，推翻了8月时卡勒姆·特纳领先的局面。

第1名：Jack Lowden
10 个名次
截至 2026年10月24日, 04:51 EDT

01最终榜单

领先的 AI 各自独立编制了十项榜单。这里是一份便于核对的汇总：每个名次都有理由、来源，以及列入它的 AI。

排序依据：按 AI 认同度从高到低。

亮色标签表示该 AI 把这一项列入了自己的榜单，暗色标签表示没有。

1
Jack Lowden
两边都明确把他排第一：威廉希尔的赔率为8/13（扣除抽水前约62%），Kalshi为58%，高于8月12日的26%。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · Nova: 1 · StepFun: 1 · Wenxin: 1 · Qwen: 1
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 1 名
  The only name where bookmakers (about 62%) and Kalshi (58–64%) agree on a clear lead, after jumping from 39% to 62% in one day.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 1 名
  William Hill’s cited price shortened from 4/5 to 4/6 as the final-test reports arrived.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 1 名
  Clear bookie and market favourite at 55-62% while final London screen tests begin this weekend
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 1 名
  Surged to an odds-on 52.3% bookmaker consensus after London screen-test reports, outpacing his 26% August Kalshi baseline.
- Nova第 1 名
  62% Kalshi, 56% Bookmakers — Scottish heritage echoes Connery
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 1 名
  From 3.5% on Kalshi on 8 August to 58% on 24 October — the biggest repricing in the race, and he would be the first Scottish Bond since Connery.
  来源 ↗
- Wenxin第 1 名
  Leads bookmaker odds with a 56% margin-removed implied probability, holding the top spot per latest aggregated bookmaker data
- Qwen第 1 名
  From Slow Horses to 007 favorite, his Kalshi surge to 64% leaves the bookies scrambling.
  来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
2
Callum Turner
在所有现行盘口中都排第二：博彩公司赔率为3/1（25%），Kalshi为37%。8月时他在Kalshi上以28%领先。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · Nova: 2 · StepFun: 2 · Wenxin: 2 · Qwen: 2
每个 AI 的看法 8
- Claude第 2 名
  He led Kalshi in August at about 28%, and by 24 Oct Kalshi still had him at 28–37% while bookmakers gave him 25%.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 2 名
  He led Action Network’s October 6 snapshot at +146, but that is about 40.7% before bookmaker margin—not a casting probability.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 2 名
  Steady second at ~25% across bookies and markets, still testing this weekend
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 2 名
  The former market pace-setter commands a 24.5% fair bookmaker chance and holds a resilient 25% on Kalshi.
- Nova第 2 名
  40% Bookmakers, 38% Kalshi — Wife Dua Lipa could sing theme
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 2 名
  Bookmakers say 27%, traders say 37% — the widest gap at the top of the market, and the only name top-two on every board since August.
  来源 ↗
- Wenxin第 2 名
  Topped Kalshi market for over a year, with 39% prediction market probability back in May 2026
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 2 名
  Longtime bookmaker favorite at +275, but his Kalshi share dropped to 36% as screen tests began.
  来源 ↗
8 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
3
Josh O'Connor
被点名的试镜入围者。Kalshi给他17–19%，博彩公司开出7/1（12.5%），因此交易者对他的评价高于博彩公司。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. 未列入: Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 3 · Nova: 3 · StepFun: 3 · Qwen: 3
每个 AI 的看法 7
- Claude第 3 名
  A confirmed screen-test finalist whose bookmaker price shortened from 10/1 to 7/1 in three days.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 3 名
  He is named among the reported final-test group, while the market pages found give no comparable price for him.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 3 名
  Third on most boards and among the four testing; Kalshi sometimes prices him higher than bookies
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 3 名
  Climbed to third across betting slips at 8.8% fair value, while trailing at 7.0% on prediction exchanges.
  来源 ↗
- Nova第 3 名
  17% Kalshi — Crown’s Charles, endorsed by Danny Boyle
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 3 名
  Kalshi prices him at 17% — nearly double the books' 9% — on screen-test buzz alone; the market likes him more than the bookmakers do.
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 3 名
  The Challengers star crashed Kalshi to 17% after Deadline confirmed final screen tests.
  来源 ↗
7 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
4
Jack O'Connell
博彩公司赔率为12/1，Kalshi为10%。各方报道在他是否参加试镜上说法不一：《好莱坞报道者》称他没有获得试镜邀请。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. 未列入: Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 8 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 5 · Nova: 6 · StepFun: 4 · Qwen: 5
每个 AI 的看法 7
- Claude第 6 名
  Bookmakers give him about 7.7%, while Kalshi gives him 10% even though he was not offered a screen test, per The Hollywood Reporter.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 8 名
  The later shortlist reporting says he is out, so older odds would overstate his present standing.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 7 名
  Once joint-third, now reported not among the four finalists
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 5 名
  Solidified a spot in the final audition tier with a 3.8% bookmaker probability and 5.0% on Kalshi contracts.
  来源 ↗
- Nova第 6 名
  8% Bookmakers — Ink screening test, Skins alum
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 4 名
  Danny Boyle's endorsed name: 11% on Kalshi in early October, 5% by mid-October — a market that cannot hold a level.
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 5 名
  A steady 12/1 outsider with bookmakers, though his name rarely moves the Kalshi needle.
  来源 ↗
7 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
5
Jacob Elordi
两个市场仍给他7–9%（博彩公司14/1，Kalshi为9%）。杰夫·斯奈德称他是入围者；《好莱坞报道者》则称他不参加试镜。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen. 未列入: Gemini.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 7 · Grok: 6 · Nova: 8 · StepFun: 6 · Wenxin: 3 · Qwen: 4
每个 AI 的看法 7
- Claude第 7 名
  Named a finalist by Jeff Sneider on 20 Oct, but The Hollywood Reporter says he is not screen testing, and both markets still price him at 7–9%.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 7 名
  Recent reporting says he was out of the final running, despite years of casting speculation.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 6 名
  Earlier shortlist name now reported out of the final four tests; odds have lengthened
  来源 ↗
- Nova第 8 名
  7% Bookmakers — Euphoria star, Kalshi volatility spike
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 6 名
  Insiders still shortlist him ('Elordi, Lowden and a mystery name'), but the market prices him at about 11% — fame the odds no longer follow.
  来源 ↗
- Wenxin第 3 名
  Named Amazon MGM's top earlier pick, with 19% Kalshi probability in May 2026 supported by recent Oscar nomination buzz
- Qwen第 4 名
  Massive public search interest, but bookmakers keep him at 14/1 fearing he's already too famous.
  来源 ↗
7 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
6
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
从8月的6/1跌到BetOnline的25/1，Kalshi为5%，据报道已不在最终试镜名单内。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. 未列入: Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 6 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 4 · Nova: 5 · StepFun: 7 · Qwen: 8
每个 AI 的看法 7
- Claude第 10 名
  The 2020s name people still remember from earlier Bond talk now sits at 5% on Kalshi.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 6 名
  Oddschecker had him at 6/1 in August; later reporting said he was out of the running for the reported final tests.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 9 名
  Former favourite now 25/1 and outside the final screen-test group
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 4 名
  The former runaway favorite plunged to 4.2% with bookmakers but still controls a massive 16.8% of global public search curiosity.
- Nova第 5 名
  15% Bookmakers — Previously reported as close to role
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 7 名
  The consensus's fourth man at 14% — ahead of Elordi with the books despite months of insider silence.
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 8 名
  Once the overwhelming favorite, his odds have drifted as the Amazon search narrowed to newer faces.
  来源 ↗
7 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
7
Richard Madden
他的博彩公司赔率有争议：10月23日的一份盘口显示8/1（约11%），而威廉希尔自己的说明写的是14/1（6.7%）。Kalshi没有给出明显的价格。
已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, Qwen. 未列入: StepFun, Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · Nova: 7 · Qwen: 9
每个 AI 的看法 6
- Claude第 4 名
  Bookmakers price him at 8/1, but Kalshi has no number for him in the reports I found.
  来源 ↗
- ChatGPT第 9 名
  William Hill’s October 23 report discussed him at 14/1 while listing Lowden as favourite and Turner as challenger.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 5 名
  Sudden bookie move from 40/1 to 14/1 but still far behind the testing trio
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 6 名
  Maintains persistent legacy betting support at 2.6% despite no confirmed presence in late-stage 2026 screen tests.
- Nova第 7 名
  11% Bookmakers — Game of Thrones star, 40 years old
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 9 名
  The Game of Thrones alumnus remains a steady 8/1 dark horse across UK sportsbooks.
  来源 ↗
6 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
8
Jack Barton
8月底曾在Kalshi上以约30%领先。现在他只有8–12%，未见报道为入围者，也不在Oddschecker实时前六名之列。
已列入: Claude, Grok, StepFun, Qwen. 未列入: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nova, Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 5 · Grok: 4 · StepFun: 5 · Qwen: 6
每个 AI 的看法 4
- Claude第 5 名
  A surprise name from August who still holds 8–12% on Kalshi but is not among the reported finalists.
  来源 ↗
- Grok第 4 名
  Long-shot still listed at 7-14/1 and occasionally appears in market snapshots
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 5 名
  August's Kalshi darling at about 30% and a 9/4 bookmaker favourite — by late October he is not on the live odds board at all.
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 6 名
  The 31-year-old unknown who crashed the shortlist and slashed odds, yet lacks public search volume.
  来源 ↗
4 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
9
Harris Dickinson
英国博彩公司开出14/1–16/1，属于冷门。他没有Kalshi价格，也没有见报的试镜。
已列入: Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Qwen. 未列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Nova, Wenxin.
在各自榜单中的名次: Grok: 8 · Gemini: 7 · StepFun: 9 · Qwen: 7
每个 AI 的看法 4
- Grok第 8 名
  Persistent long-shot at 14/1 with no confirmed test
  来源 ↗
- Gemini第 7 名
  A rising indie-to-blockbuster darling capturing 2.0% market probability while drawing 3.6% in 007 search interest.
  来源 ↗
- StepFun第 9 名
  Same long-list limbo as Mescal — famous enough to tip in every round-up, not famous enough for a live price.
  来源 ↗
- Qwen第 7 名
  The Kingsman star sits at 16/1, a distant shadow of his former frontrunner status.
  来源 ↗
4 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗
10
Idris Elba
仅一个来源（估算）：10月23–24日Kalshi为9%，没有博彩公司价格。同一篇文章称他可能年龄偏大。
已列入: Claude. 未列入: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.
在各自榜单中的名次: Claude: 8
每个 AI 的看法 1
- Claude第 8 名
  Fame outruns the odds: Kalshi puts him at 9% although the same article calls him likely too old for the role.
  来源 ↗
1 个 AI 列入此名次
来源 ↗

前三名详解 ↓

02前三名详解

榜单在上方。这里进一步介绍排名前三的对象：它们是什么、为什么上榜、有哪些值得了解的事。

Bookmaker odds include the bookies' margin, while Kalshi shows trader prices as percentages. The figures are from slightly different days (23 and 24 Oct), so they are close but not exact matches.

1Jack Lowden

第 1 名 — Jack Lowden. 8 个 AI 中有 8 个将其列入榜单；在其中的中位名次：1. Both bookmakers and Kalshi traders make him the clear favourite, after a huge jump since August and news of final London screen tests.

Jack Lowden at the 2019 Mary Queen of Scots premiere (cropped) — Scottish Government · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

你知道吗

Jack Lowden's parents are Scottish, but they went to England for IVF treatment for the pregnancies and births of Jack and his younger brother Calum.
来源 ↗

它是什么: Scottish actor from Slow Horses, now the clear favourite to be the next Bond.
它的优势: Only name where bookies and Kalshi both show a clear lead.
谁应该了解: Useful for bettors and fans to see where money has moved since August.

Bookie odds and Kalshi chance8/13; 58% on Kalshi

维基百科 · Wikidata

为什么上榜

Kalshi priced Lowden at 62% on 23 October 2026, against 29% for Turner and 19% for O’Connor. — (voice only)
来源 ↗

你知道吗

At 18, in 2009, Lowden appeared in a TV advert for the Scottish drink Irn-Bru that sent up High School Musical. He also supports Broxburn Athletic Football Club and sometimes goes to their matches.
来源 ↗

历史

In 2016, Lowden called War & Peace his “first big, big job.” The BBC miniseries gave him his biggest screen exposure so far, before Dunkirk brought him wider attention the next year. — (voice only)
来源 ↗

需要注意

Nothing is official. The article calls the Lowden talk speculation. Ronan's answers neither confirm nor deny it, and the page has no direct Bond quotes from Lowden himself.
来源 ↗

进一步了解

Start with Slow Horses, where Jack Lowden plays River Cartwright from 2020. Then watch Calibre (2018) to see a quieter, different side of him. His full career and awards are on his Wikipedia page.
来源 ↗

视频: Jack Lowden unveils his terrific triple-take | The Graham Norton Show - BBC (英文) · BBC

比较前三名 ↓

2Callum Turner

第 2 名 — Callum Turner. 8 个 AI 中有 8 个将其列入榜单；在其中的中位名次：2. He is second on every current board, with solid support from both bookmakers and Kalshi, and he led the market in August.

你知道吗

Callum Turner's middle name honours the poet David Robilliard, who died over a year before Turner was born.
来源 ↗

它是什么: Actor from The Capture, who led the Kalshi market in August.
它的优势: Steadier than the others: he stayed near the top on every board.
谁应该了解: Useful for bettors who want to know the former favourite is still in the race.

Bookie odds and Kalshi chance3/1 (25%); 37% on Kalshi

维基百科 · Wikidata

为什么上榜

Turner was second in the bookmaker odds on 23 October 2026, at 3/1 (25%), behind Lowden at 8/13. — (voice only)
来源 ↗
Kalshi had Turner at 29% on 23 October 2026, behind Lowden at 62% but ahead of O’Connor at 19%. — (voice only)
来源 ↗

你知道吗

Turner's career began in 2010 with modelling for companies such as Next and Reebok, before the acting roles that made him known.
来源 ↗

历史

In 2019, Turner’s career took a hit when two films he was attached to fell apart and his diary looked empty. Then The Capture made him a breakout star, playing a soldier fighting a murder conviction. — (voice only)
来源 ↗

需要注意

Turner won't say whether he would take the role. He told The Hollywood Reporter he knows as much as everyone else, so his high odds come from speculation, not from him.
来源 ↗

人们怎么说

I genuinely know nothing. I just find it quite amusing. — Callum Turner
来源 ↗

进一步了解

Watch The Capture (2019) first. It is his lead TV role, where he plays Shaun Emery, and it earned a British Academy Television Award nomination for Best Actor. It shows more range than his Fantastic Beasts films.
来源 ↗

视频: THE TRUTH ABOUT DUA LIPA & CALLUM TURNER: Why A Man Won't Post You | Shallon Lester (英文) · Shallon Lester

比较前三名 ↓

3Josh O'Connor

第 3 名 — Josh O'Connor. 8 个 AI 中有 7 个将其列入榜单；在其中的中位名次：3. He is a named screen-test finalist, and Kalshi traders rate him higher than bookmakers do, but he trails the top two.

你知道吗

To prepare for God's Own Country, O'Connor worked on a Yorkshire farm between takes. The article says he eventually birthed over 150 lambs.
来源 ↗

它是什么: Actor from The Crown and God's Own Country, named among the final screen-test group.
它的优势: Biggest gap in his favour: Kalshi rates him above the bookies.
谁应该了解: Useful for bettors who want to spot where traders and bookies disagree.

Bookie odds and Kalshi chance7/1 (12.5%); 17–19% Kalshi

维基百科 · Wikidata

你知道吗

Josh O'Connor's first major stage role came at age seven, when he played the scarecrow in a school production of The Wizard of Oz.
来源 ↗

历史

In 2017, God’s Own Country became O’Connor’s breakthrough. He later said the film changed his career completely: audiences saw his performance, and it brought him other jobs. — (voice only)
来源 ↗

需要注意

His best-known comments on Bond are from a January 2025 interview, long before today's odds. He said the rumour began with a joke he made about playing Bond.
来源 ↗

人们怎么说

If I am Bond, I don’t know about it. — Josh O'Connor
来源 ↗

进一步了解

Begin with God's Own Country (2017), the film that made Josh O'Connor's name. He plays a sheep farmer and won a British Independent Film Award for it. Then watch The Crown, where he plays Prince Charles.
来源 ↗

视频: Josh O'Connor on how he became Prince Charles | British GQ (英文) · GQ

比较前三名 ↓

前三名对比

	Jack Lowden	Callum Turner	Josh O'Connor
进入 AI 榜单	8 / 8	8 / 8	7 / 8
Bookie odds and Kalshi chance	8/13; 58% on Kalshi	3/1 (25%); 37% on Kalshi	7/1 (12.5%); 17–19% Kalshi
排第一的 AI	Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen	—	—

AI 数量相同的名次，按其在各 AI 榜单中的平均名次排序。

03值得了解

AI 在编制榜单时注意到的内容。

杰克·洛登在Kalshi上的价格，在《最后期限》报道他是四名试镜入围者之一后，一天之内从39%跳升到62%。

提及者:

已列入: Claude, Nova. 未列入: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.

来源 ↗

两边的数字都含有抽水。六个名字的博彩公司盘口合计约126%，Kalshi六个名字合计约135%，所以每个原始百分比都偏高。

提及者:

已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok. 未列入: Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.

来源 ↗

Polymarket认为存在真实可能性：无人出任邦德。“无人出任邦德”在一种读法中约为34%，在另一种读法中为18.5%；洛登在该市场为33–38%。

提及者:

已列入: Claude, Grok, StepFun. 未列入: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nova, Wenxin, Qwen.

来源 ↗

入围名单本身有争议。《最后期限》称有四名入围者，《好莱坞报道者》称最多五名，而只有洛登、特纳和奥康纳被点名。一位知情人士则点名雅各布·埃洛迪。

提及者:

已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, StepFun. 未列入: Gemini, Nova, Wenxin, Qwen.

来源 ↗

没有任何媒体按候选人公布谷歌趋势的份额，因此无法把搜索热度与赔率并列成数字。特纳的搜索量本周激增约400%。

提及者:

已列入: Claude, ChatGPT, StepFun. 未列入: Grok, Gemini, Nova, Wenxin, Qwen.

来源 ↗

04我们如何统计

用大白话讲，不用公式。

1问题

Top 10 Contenders for the Next James Bond: Bookmakers vs the Kalshi Market vs Public Search Interest

2为什么选这个话题

Bookmakers, a prediction market and public searches each name a different frontrunner, and no single published table puts all three side by side for each contender.

3适用范围

Global (English-language 007 casting race, as of 24 October 2026)

4考量标准

Implied probability from the bookmaker average, with the bookmaker's margin removed
Implied probability on the Kalshi prediction market, with the date of each reading
Share of worldwide Google Trends interest in each actor's name searched with 'James Bond' over the last 90 days
How far apart the three measures are for each actor
William Hill / Oddschecker UK (via The Cinema Group, 23 Oct 2026) — Live UK bookmaker prices turned into implied probability. These are raw figures, so the bookmaker's margin is still included (the si
Action Network (bookmaker average, early October 2026) — An earlier bookmaker-average snapshot. The brief quotes Lowden at -125 and Turner at +275. One October 6 version of the page has Turner leading
Kalshi (Kalshi News, 24 Oct 2026) — Prices traders paid on the prediction market, dated by reading. Different snapshots disagree, and the six leading names add up to about 135%.
Polymarket (via CryptoSlate) — A second prediction market. It also prices a 'No Bond chosen' outcome.

5谁来排名

领先的 AI：Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen。每个 AI 独立编制自己的十项榜单，并为每个名次注明来源。

6名次如何确定

不同 AI 以不同说法写出的同一项被视为一项。把某项列入榜单的 AI 越多、排得越靠前，它的名次就越高。“AI 共识”表示有多少个 AI 在自己的榜单中列入了该项。来源仅限 AI 自己找到的，没有任何人工添加。

01最终榜单

Jack Lowden

Callum Turner

Josh O'Connor

Jack O'Connell

Jacob Elordi

Aaron Taylor-Johnson

Richard Madden

Jack Barton

Harris Dickinson

Idris Elba

02前三名详解

1Jack Lowden

你知道吗

2Callum Turner

你知道吗

3Josh O'Connor

你知道吗

前三名对比

更多榜单

03值得了解

04我们如何统计

1问题

2为什么选这个话题

3适用范围

4考量标准

5谁来排名

6名次如何确定