Lowden's Kalshi price jumped from 39% to 62% in a single day after Deadline reported he is one of four screen-test finalists.
Back to the trend of the day: Four actors are in the race for the next James Bond
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Next James Bond Odds October 2026: Bookies vs Kalshi
Kalshi traders moved Jack Lowden from about 26% on 12 August to 58% on 24 October, overturning a market that Callum Turner led in August.
- No. 1: Jack Lowden
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Jack Lowden
Both boards clearly put him first: 8/13 with William Hill (about 62% before the margin) and 58% on Kalshi, up from 26% on 12 August.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · Nova: 1 · StepFun: 1 · Wenxin: 1 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 1
The only name where bookmakers (about 62%) and Kalshi (58–64%) agree on a clear lead, after jumping from 39% to 62% in one day.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
William Hill’s cited price shortened from 4/5 to 4/6 as the final-test reports arrived.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Clear bookie and market favourite at 55-62% while final London screen tests begin this weekend
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Surged to an odds-on 52.3% bookmaker consensus after London screen-test reports, outpacing his 26% August Kalshi baseline.
- Novaplace 1
62% Kalshi, 56% Bookmakers — Scottish heritage echoes Connery
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 1
From 3.5% on Kalshi on 8 August to 58% on 24 October — the biggest repricing in the race, and he would be the first Scottish Bond since Connery.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 1
Leads bookmaker odds with a 56% margin-removed implied probability, holding the top spot per latest aggregated bookmaker data
- Qwenplace 1
From Slow Horses to 007 favorite, his Kalshi surge to 64% leaves the bookies scrambling.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 2
Callum Turner
Second on every current board: 3/1 (25%) with bookmakers and 37% on Kalshi. He led Kalshi at 28% in August.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · Nova: 2 · StepFun: 2 · Wenxin: 2 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 8
- Claudeplace 2
He led Kalshi in August at about 28%, and by 24 Oct Kalshi still had him at 28–37% while bookmakers gave him 25%.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
He led Action Network’s October 6 snapshot at +146, but that is about 40.7% before bookmaker margin—not a casting probability.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
Steady second at ~25% across bookies and markets, still testing this weekend
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
The former market pace-setter commands a 24.5% fair bookmaker chance and holds a resilient 25% on Kalshi.
- Novaplace 2
40% Bookmakers, 38% Kalshi — Wife Dua Lipa could sing theme
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 2
Bookmakers say 27%, traders say 37% — the widest gap at the top of the market, and the only name top-two on every board since August.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 2
Topped Kalshi market for over a year, with 39% prediction market probability back in May 2026
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 2
Longtime bookmaker favorite at +275, but his Kalshi share dropped to 36% as screen tests began.
Source ↗
8 AIs put it here - 3
Josh O'Connor
A named screen-test finalist. Kalshi gives him 17–19%, while bookmakers offer 7/1 (12.5%), so traders rate him higher than the bookmakers do.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 3 · Nova: 3 · StepFun: 3 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 3
A confirmed screen-test finalist whose bookmaker price shortened from 10/1 to 7/1 in three days.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
He is named among the reported final-test group, while the market pages found give no comparable price for him.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Third on most boards and among the four testing; Kalshi sometimes prices him higher than bookies
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Climbed to third across betting slips at 8.8% fair value, while trailing at 7.0% on prediction exchanges.
Source ↗ - Novaplace 3
17% Kalshi — Crown’s Charles, endorsed by Danny Boyle
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 3
Kalshi prices him at 17% — nearly double the books' 9% — on screen-test buzz alone; the market likes him more than the bookmakers do.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 3
The Challengers star crashed Kalshi to 17% after Deadline confirmed final screen tests.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 4
Jack O'Connell
12/1 with bookmakers and 10% on Kalshi. Reports disagree on whether he is testing: The Hollywood Reporter says he was not offered a screen test.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 8 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 5 · Nova: 6 · StepFun: 4 · Qwen: 5
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 6
Bookmakers give him about 7.7%, while Kalshi gives him 10% even though he was not offered a screen test, per The Hollywood Reporter.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 8
The later shortlist reporting says he is out, so older odds would overstate his present standing.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Once joint-third, now reported not among the four finalists
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Solidified a spot in the final audition tier with a 3.8% bookmaker probability and 5.0% on Kalshi contracts.
Source ↗ - Novaplace 6
8% Bookmakers — Ink screening test, Skins alum
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 4
Danny Boyle's endorsed name: 11% on Kalshi in early October, 5% by mid-October — a market that cannot hold a level.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 5
A steady 12/1 outsider with bookmakers, though his name rarely moves the Kalshi needle.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 5
Jacob Elordi
Both markets still give him 7–9% (14/1, Kalshi 9%). Jeff Sneider called him a finalist; The Hollywood Reporter says he is not screen testing.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 7 · Grok: 6 · Nova: 8 · StepFun: 6 · Wenxin: 3 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 7
Named a finalist by Jeff Sneider on 20 Oct, but The Hollywood Reporter says he is not screen testing, and both markets still price him at 7–9%.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 7
Recent reporting says he was out of the final running, despite years of casting speculation.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
Earlier shortlist name now reported out of the final four tests; odds have lengthened
Source ↗ - Novaplace 8
7% Bookmakers — Euphoria star, Kalshi volatility spike
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 6
Insiders still shortlist him ('Elordi, Lowden and a mystery name'), but the market prices him at about 11% — fame the odds no longer follow.
Source ↗ - Wenxinplace 3
Named Amazon MGM's top earlier pick, with 19% Kalshi probability in May 2026 supported by recent Oscar nomination buzz
- Qwenplace 4
Massive public search interest, but bookmakers keep him at 14/1 fearing he's already too famous.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 6
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Slid from 6/1 in August to 25/1 at BetOnline and 5% on Kalshi, and is reported to be outside the final screen tests.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Qwen. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 6 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 4 · Nova: 5 · StepFun: 7 · Qwen: 8
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 10
The 2020s name people still remember from earlier Bond talk now sits at 5% on Kalshi.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 6
Oddschecker had him at 6/1 in August; later reporting said he was out of the running for the reported final tests.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
Former favourite now 25/1 and outside the final screen-test group
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
The former runaway favorite plunged to 4.2% with bookmakers but still controls a massive 16.8% of global public search curiosity.
- Novaplace 5
15% Bookmakers — Previously reported as close to role
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 7
The consensus's fourth man at 14% — ahead of Elordi with the books despite months of insider silence.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 8
Once the overwhelming favorite, his odds have drifted as the Amazon search narrowed to newer faces.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 7
Richard Madden
His bookmaker price is disputed: one 23 Oct board shows 8/1 (about 11%), while William Hill's own note says 14/1 (6.7%). Kalshi gives him no notable price.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, Qwen. Did not include: StepFun, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 6 · Nova: 7 · Qwen: 9
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 4
Bookmakers price him at 8/1, but Kalshi has no number for him in the reports I found.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
William Hill’s October 23 report discussed him at 14/1 while listing Lowden as favourite and Turner as challenger.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Sudden bookie move from 40/1 to 14/1 but still far behind the testing trio
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Maintains persistent legacy betting support at 2.6% despite no confirmed presence in late-stage 2026 screen tests.
- Novaplace 7
11% Bookmakers — Game of Thrones star, 40 years old
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 9
The Game of Thrones alumnus remains a steady 8/1 dark horse across UK sportsbooks.
Source ↗
6 AIs put it here - 8
Jack Barton
Led Kalshi in late August at about 30%. He now holds 8–12%, is not a reported finalist and is missing from Oddschecker's live top six.
Included it: Claude, Grok, StepFun, Qwen. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nova, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · Grok: 4 · StepFun: 5 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 5
A surprise name from August who still holds 8–12% on Kalshi but is not among the reported finalists.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
Long-shot still listed at 7-14/1 and occasionally appears in market snapshots
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 5
August's Kalshi darling at about 30% and a 9/4 bookmaker favourite — by late October he is not on the live odds board at all.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 6
The 31-year-old unknown who crashed the shortlist and slashed odds, yet lacks public search volume.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 9
Harris Dickinson
A long shot at 14/1–16/1 with UK bookmakers. He has no Kalshi price and no reported screen test.
Included it: Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Qwen. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Nova, Wenxin.In their lists: Grok: 8 · Gemini: 7 · StepFun: 9 · Qwen: 7
What each AI noted 4
- Grokplace 8
Persistent long-shot at 14/1 with no confirmed test
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
A rising indie-to-blockbuster darling capturing 2.0% market probability while drawing 3.6% in 007 search interest.
Source ↗ - StepFunplace 9
Same long-list limbo as Mescal — famous enough to tip in every round-up, not famous enough for a live price.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 7
The Kingsman star sits at 16/1, a distant shadow of his former frontrunner status.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 10
Idris Elba
Only one source (estimate): Kalshi 9% on 23–24 Oct, with no bookmaker price. The same article calls him likely too old.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.In their lists: Claude: 8
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 8
Fame outruns the odds: Kalshi puts him at 9% although the same article calls him likely too old for the role.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Neither board is margin-free. The six-name bookmaker book adds up to about 126% and Kalshi's six names to about 135%, so every raw percentage is too high.
Polymarket prices a real chance that nobody is named. 'No Bond chosen' is about 34% in one reading and 18.5% in another, and Lowden is 33–38% there.
The shortlist itself is disputed. Deadline says four finalists, THR says up to five, and only Lowden, Turner and O'Connor are named. One insider instead names Elordi.
No publisher gives Google Trends shares by contender, so search fame cannot be put in numbers beside the odds. Turner's searches spiked about 400% this week.
03Questions people ask
Who is the next James Bond odds?
Jack Lowden is the favourite: 8/13 with William Hill (about 62% before the margin) and 58% on Kalshi on 24 October 2026. Callum Turner is second at 3/1.
Source ↗What is the odds for the next James Bond actor?
On 23 October 2026 the board read Lowden 8/13, Turner 3/1, O'Connor 7/1, Madden 8/1, O'Connell 12/1 and Elordi 14/1.
Source ↗Why do the next James Bond odds differ between sources?
The readings come from different dates and markets. Kalshi had Turner first at 28% on 12 August, while Lowden was at 64% on 23 October and 58% on 24 October.
Source ↗Who will be next James Bond?
No one is confirmed. Four actors are reported in final screen tests (Lowden, Turner, O'Connor and one unnamed), and an announcement is expected in November or December 2026.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Contenders for the Next James Bond: Bookmakers vs the Kalshi Market vs Public Search Interest
2Why this topic
Bookmakers, a prediction market and public searches each name a different frontrunner, and no single published table puts all three side by side for each contender.
3Where it applies
Global (English-language 007 casting race, as of 24 October 2026)
4What we looked at
- Implied probability from the bookmaker average, with the bookmaker's margin removed
- Implied probability on the Kalshi prediction market, with the date of each reading
- Share of worldwide Google Trends interest in each actor's name searched with 'James Bond' over the last 90 days
- How far apart the three measures are for each actor
- William Hill / Oddschecker UK (via The Cinema Group, 23 Oct 2026) — Live UK bookmaker prices turned into implied probability. These are raw figures, so the bookmaker's margin is still included (the si
- Action Network (bookmaker average, early October 2026) — An earlier bookmaker-average snapshot. The brief quotes Lowden at -125 and Turner at +275. One October 6 version of the page has Turner leading
- Kalshi (Kalshi News, 24 Oct 2026) — Prices traders paid on the prediction market, dated by reading. Different snapshots disagree, and the six leading names add up to about 135%.
- Polymarket (via CryptoSlate) — A second prediction market. It also prices a 'No Bond chosen' outcome.
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Nova, StepFun, Wenxin, Qwen.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
The only name where bookmakers (about 62%) and Kalshi (58–64%) agree on a clear lead, after jumping from 39% to 62% in one day.
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
He led Kalshi in August at about 28%, and by 24 Oct Kalshi still had him at 28–37% while bookmakers gave him 25%.
Source ↗ - 3Josh O'Connor
A confirmed screen-test finalist whose bookmaker price shortened from 10/1 to 7/1 in three days.
Source ↗ - 4Richard Madden
Bookmakers price him at 8/1, but Kalshi has no number for him in the reports I found.
Source ↗ - 5Jack Barton
A surprise name from August who still holds 8–12% on Kalshi but is not among the reported finalists.
Source ↗ - 6Jack O'Connell
Bookmakers give him about 7.7%, while Kalshi gives him 10% even though he was not offered a screen test, per The Hollywood Reporter.
Source ↗ - 7Jacob Elordi
Named a finalist by Jeff Sneider on 20 Oct, but The Hollywood Reporter says he is not screen testing, and both markets still price him at 7–9%.
Source ↗ - 8Idris Elba
Fame outruns the odds: Kalshi puts him at 9% although the same article calls him likely too old for the role.
Source ↗ - 9Robert Pattinson
A famous name that Kalshi prices at 7% with no reported bookmaker price.
Source ↗ - 10Aaron Taylor-Johnson
The 2020s name people still remember from earlier Bond talk now sits at 5% on Kalshi.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
Lowden's Kalshi price moved from 39% to 62% in a single day, after Deadline reported that he is one of four screen-test finalists.
Prices in the six-name bookmaker list add up to about 126%, and Kalshi's six names to about 135%. Every raw percentage includes a margin or overlap, so I rescaled the bookmaker prices myself.
Polymarket tells a different story: 'No Bond chosen' leads at around 34%, with Lowden at 33% and Turner at about 18.7%.
Turner led Kalshi in August (about 28% against Lowden's 26%), and Lowden has overtaken him since. Amazon MGM has named no one, and an announcement is expected in November or December.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
William Hill’s cited price shortened from 4/5 to 4/6 as the final-test reports arrived.
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
He led Action Network’s October 6 snapshot at +146, but that is about 40.7% before bookmaker margin—not a casting probability.
Source ↗ - 3Josh O’Connor
He is named among the reported final-test group, while the market pages found give no comparable price for him.
Source ↗ - 4Unnamed finalist
The reporting describes a fourth test offer but does not name the actor, leaving no name to compare across odds or searches.
Source ↗ - 5Henry Cavill
Oddschecker reported a betting-interest surge in August, but the later finalist reporting did not include him among the three named actors.
Source ↗ - 6Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Oddschecker had him at 6/1 in August; later reporting said he was out of the running for the reported final tests.
Source ↗ - 7Jacob Elordi
Recent reporting says he was out of the final running, despite years of casting speculation.
Source ↗ - 8Jack O’Connell
The later shortlist reporting says he is out, so older odds would overstate his present standing.
Source ↗ - 9Richard Madden
William Hill’s October 23 report discussed him at 14/1 while listing Lowden as favourite and Turner as challenger.
Source ↗ - 10James Norton
He remains a familiar name in the speculation cycle, but the recent final-test reporting supplies no evidence placing him in the named finalists.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
The reported shortlist and the betting leader do not perfectly align: Lowden was William Hill’s favourite on October 23, while Action Network’s October 6 average had Turner first.
A prediction-market quotation is time-sensitive: the October 22 report put Lowden at 62¢ and Turner at 36¢, a snapshot rather than a settled outcome.
The fourth reported finalist was unnamed, so no search-interest comparison can fairly assign that person a place by name.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
Clear bookie and market favourite at 55-62% while final London screen tests begin this weekend
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
Steady second at ~25% across bookies and markets, still testing this weekend
Source ↗ - 3Josh O'Connor
Third on most boards and among the four testing; Kalshi sometimes prices him higher than bookies
Source ↗ - 4Jack Barton
Long-shot still listed at 7-14/1 and occasionally appears in market snapshots
Source ↗ - 5Richard Madden
Sudden bookie move from 40/1 to 14/1 but still far behind the testing trio
Source ↗ - 6Jacob Elordi
Earlier shortlist name now reported out of the final four tests; odds have lengthened
Source ↗ - 7Jack O'Connell
Once joint-third, now reported not among the four finalists
Source ↗ - 8Harris Dickinson
Persistent long-shot at 14/1 with no confirmed test
Source ↗ - 9Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Former favourite now 25/1 and outside the final screen-test group
Source ↗ - 10Henry Cavill
Long-time public favourite reduced to 33/1 outsider
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Final screen tests for at least four actors (Lowden, Turner, O'Connor + one unnamed) are scheduled for this weekend in London under Denis Villeneuve and Amazon MGM.
Kalshi and bookmakers diverge on timing risk: Polymarket still prices a meaningful 'no Bond chosen in 2026' outcome while Kalshi contracts run longer.
Gary Oldman publicly backed his Slow Horses co-star Lowden, helping drive the late-summer odds collapse that put the Scottish actor clear favourite.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
Surged to an odds-on 52.3% bookmaker consensus after London screen-test reports, outpacing his 26% August Kalshi baseline.
- 2Callum Turner
The former market pace-setter commands a 24.5% fair bookmaker chance and holds a resilient 25% on Kalshi.
- 3Josh O'Connor
Climbed to third across betting slips at 8.8% fair value, while trailing at 7.0% on prediction exchanges.
Source ↗ - 4Aaron Taylor-Johnson
The former runaway favorite plunged to 4.2% with bookmakers but still controls a massive 16.8% of global public search curiosity.
- 5Jack O'Connell
Solidified a spot in the final audition tier with a 3.8% bookmaker probability and 5.0% on Kalshi contracts.
Source ↗ - 6Richard Madden
Maintains persistent legacy betting support at 2.6% despite no confirmed presence in late-stage 2026 screen tests.
- 7Harris Dickinson
A rising indie-to-blockbuster darling capturing 2.0% market probability while drawing 3.6% in 007 search interest.
Source ↗ - 8Paul Mescal
Generates 5.1% of global search chatter but only a 1.5% bookmaker probability due to his busy franchise slate.
- 9Damson Idris
Holds 1.2% bookmaker implied value alongside a 2.0% Kalshi share after heavy early casting buzz cooled.
Source ↗ - 10James Norton
A long-time British tabloid staple who has contracted to a 0.9% bookmaker probability and 1.3% search interest.
What Gemini noticed
Prediction market volume on Kalshi proved that on 12 August 2026 Callum Turner led at 28% while Lowden was at 26%, revealing that the flip at the top occurred only when screen-test shortlist reports leaked in early autumn.
🇺🇸 Nova10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Nova alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
62% Kalshi, 56% Bookmakers — Scottish heritage echoes Connery
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
40% Bookmakers, 38% Kalshi — Wife Dua Lipa could sing theme
Source ↗ - 3Josh O'Connor
17% Kalshi — Crown’s Charles, endorsed by Danny Boyle
Source ↗ - 4Tom Francis
7% Bookmakers — Olivier Award winner, auditioned secretly
Source ↗ - 5Aaron Taylor-Johnson
15% Bookmakers — Previously reported as close to role
Source ↗ - 6Jack O'Connell
8% Bookmakers — Ink screening test, Skins alum
Source ↗ - 7Richard Madden
11% Bookmakers — Game of Thrones star, 40 years old
Source ↗ - 8Jacob Elordi
7% Bookmakers — Euphoria star, Kalshi volatility spike
Source ↗ - 9James Norton
5% Bookmakers — Grantchester, 38 years old
Source ↗ - 10Mystery Actor
4% Bookmakers — Unnamed finalist per Deadline
Source ↗
What Nova noticed
Kalshi shows Lowden at 62% vs bookmakers' 56%, reflecting recent screen-test momentum and Gary Oldman's endorsement.
Elordi's Kalshi odds spiked 10% on Sneider rumor but collapsed when screen tests excluded him, highlighting market volatility.
🇨🇳 StepFun10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by StepFun alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
From 3.5% on Kalshi on 8 August to 58% on 24 October — the biggest repricing in the race, and he would be the first Scottish Bond since Connery.
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
Bookmakers say 27%, traders say 37% — the widest gap at the top of the market, and the only name top-two on every board since August.
Source ↗ - 3Josh O'Connor
Kalshi prices him at 17% — nearly double the books' 9% — on screen-test buzz alone; the market likes him more than the bookmakers do.
Source ↗ - 4Jack O'Connell
Danny Boyle's endorsed name: 11% on Kalshi in early October, 5% by mid-October — a market that cannot hold a level.
Source ↗ - 5Jack Barton
August's Kalshi darling at about 30% and a 9/4 bookmaker favourite — by late October he is not on the live odds board at all.
Source ↗ - 6Jacob Elordi
Insiders still shortlist him ('Elordi, Lowden and a mystery name'), but the market prices him at about 11% — fame the odds no longer follow.
Source ↗ - 7Aaron Taylor-Johnson
The consensus's fourth man at 14% — ahead of Elordi with the books despite months of insider silence.
Source ↗ - 8Paul Mescal
On every long list, priced by nobody — the classic 'listed but not betting' contender of the 2026 race.
Source ↗ - 9Harris Dickinson
Same long-list limbo as Mescal — famous enough to tip in every round-up, not famous enough for a live price.
Source ↗ - 10Paddy Gibson
UK books price the young Bond of the 007 First Light game at 14/5 — about 26%, ahead of two of the film's screen-test finalists.
Source ↗
What StepFun noticed
Lowden's Kalshi price went from 3.5% on 8 August to 58% on 24 October — a roughly 17-fold repricing driven by casting tips, the fastest move the Bond market has ever recorded.
Polymarket prices 'No Bond chosen' at 18.5% — essentially tied with Callum Turner at 18.6%; traders are hedging that Amazon MGM announces nobody at all.
The market leader changed twice in ten weeks: Kalshi had Turner 28% ahead of Lowden 26% on 12 August, Barton near 30% in late August, and Lowden 58% by 24 October.
No publisher breaks Google Trends down per contender, which is the point: search interest rewards fame (Elordi, Taylor-Johnson, Mescal) while the odds reward insider shortlist news — the two measures point at different actors.
🇨🇳 Wenxin5 places
The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
Leads bookmaker odds with a 56% margin-removed implied probability, holding the top spot per latest aggregated bookmaker data
- 2Callum Turner
Topped Kalshi market for over a year, with 39% prediction market probability back in May 2026
Source ↗ - 3Jacob Elordi
Named Amazon MGM's top earlier pick, with 19% Kalshi probability in May 2026 supported by recent Oscar nomination buzz
- 4Undisclosed third shortlisted actor
The unpublicized finalist in the previously reported three-person shortlist with no public odds data
- 5Other longshot contenders
All remaining candidates sit below 15% across all three measurement categories as of October 2026
🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Jack Lowden
From Slow Horses to 007 favorite, his Kalshi surge to 64% leaves the bookies scrambling.
Source ↗ - 2Callum Turner
Longtime bookmaker favorite at +275, but his Kalshi share dropped to 36% as screen tests began.
Source ↗ - 3Josh O'Connor
The Challengers star crashed Kalshi to 17% after Deadline confirmed final screen tests.
Source ↗ - 4Jacob Elordi
Massive public search interest, but bookmakers keep him at 14/1 fearing he's already too famous.
Source ↗ - 5Jack O'Connell
A steady 12/1 outsider with bookmakers, though his name rarely moves the Kalshi needle.
Source ↗ - 6Jack Barton
The 31-year-old unknown who crashed the shortlist and slashed odds, yet lacks public search volume.
Source ↗ - 7Harris Dickinson
The Kingsman star sits at 16/1, a distant shadow of his former frontrunner status.
Source ↗ - 8Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Once the overwhelming favorite, his odds have drifted as the Amazon search narrowed to newer faces.
Source ↗ - 9Richard Madden
The Game of Thrones alumnus remains a steady 8/1 dark horse across UK sportsbooks.
Source ↗ - 10Paul Mescal
The Normal People star brings indie credibility and steady search interest to the longlist.
Source ↗
What Qwen noticed
Kalshi traders have heavily backed Jack Lowden to 64%, completely inverting the August market where Callum Turner led.
Bookmaker margins heavily distort the true probability; removing the overround shows Lowden and Turner actually command about 82% of the implied market combined.
Final screen tests reportedly involve only Lowden, Turner, and Josh O'Connor, meaning 7 of the top 10 famous names are already effectively out of the running.