Al-Hazem were one VAR offside call (66') and one missed one-on-one (84') away from a draw or a win before Martinelli scored at 89'.
Back to the trend of the day: Brazilian star's late header keeps Al-Hilal top of Saudi league
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Saudi Pro League Squad Values: Top 10 Near-Shocks 2026
Al-Hilal's squad is worth roughly 17 to 18 times Al-Hazem's, yet Al-Hazem kept it 0-0 until Martinelli's 89th-minute header and had missed a one-on-one at 84'.
- No. 1: Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Hazem (19 October 2026)
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Hazem (19 October 2026)
Squad worth 17-18 times less, but Al-Hazem held 0-0 until Martinelli's 89th-minute header. Al-Hilal had 21 shots and only 4 on target.
Included it: Claude, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 4
- Claude
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
- Geminiplace 1
A €12m roster held a €240m giant to 3 shots on target until Gabriel Martinelli's 89th-minute header broke parity.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 2
An 18-to-1 squad-value gap produced only four Al-Hilal shots on target.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
€200.95m against €11.35m — a 17.7-to-1 gap — and Al-Hazem still had a 84th-minute lob that nearly won it.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 2
Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fayha (2025-26)
Al-Fayha led, then held 1-1 from 37' until Ronaldo's 90+14 penalty. The gap is 6-8x and xG 2.2-2.8 against about 0.8; sources differ on both.
Included it: Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 2
2 AIs put it here - 3
Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Shabab (2024-25)
Al-Shabab equalised in the 90th minute, then lost to Ronaldo's 97th-minute penalty. The score was level for only seven minutes. Gap 3.3-4.1x, depending on the snapshot.
Included it: Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 2
2 AIs put it here - 4
Al-Nassr 1-0 Neom (7 March 2026)
0-0 until Simakan's stoppage-time header (90+5 or 90+8, by source) after 25 Al-Nassr shots. But Neom's squad is only about 1.6x poorer (one source).
Included it: Claude, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude · Kimi: 10
What each AI noted 2
- Claude
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
- Kimiplace 10
Neom faced 25 shots, allowed only 10 on target—and survived until 90+5.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 5
Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Fayha (2023-24)
Al-Fayha kept Ronaldo out for 80 minutes, then lost to his 81st-minute volley. The gap of about 6.8x is an estimate from a current Transfermarkt page.
Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Kimi: 6
What each AI noted 1
- Kimiplace 6
Fayha held Ronaldo scoreless for 80 minutes—and then lost to one first-time volley.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 6
Al-Nassr 3-2 Al-Okhdood (2023-24)
Al-Okhdood came back from 0-2 to 2-2 before Brozović's stoppage-time winner. The 10.3x gap is an estimate that uses 2025-26 values for a 2023-24 match.
Included it: DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 1
- DeepSeekplace 5
Al-Okhdood came from 0-2 down to 2-2 before Brozovic's stoppage-time winner for a 10.3-to-1 favourite.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 7
Al-Ittihad 4-3 Al-Fayha (2024-25)
Al-Fayha led 3-1 and were level again until Aouar's stoppage-time winner. They scored three against a squad about 6x richer (estimate).
Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Kimi: 8
What each AI noted 1
- Kimiplace 8
Fayha scored three against one of the league’s costliest squads—and still left empty-handed.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 8
Al-Ahli 1-0 Al-Fateh (2024-25)
Al-Fateh held out until the very end (89' or 90+1, by source) against a squad about 5x richer (estimate).
Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Kimi: 5
What each AI noted 1
- Kimiplace 5
Bottom-side Fateh were one normal minute from a point against a squad worth about five times more.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 9
Al-Ahli 1-0 Al-Okhdood (2024-25)
Al-Okhdood had beaten Al-Ahli 3-2 a year earlier and held out until 89'/90+1 this time. The gap is about 4.7x (estimate).
Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Kimi: 7
What each AI noted 1
- Kimiplace 7
Okhdood, which had beaten Ahli 3–2 the previous year, held out until the 89th minute.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 10
Al-Ahli 1-0 Al-Taawoun (2023-24)
Almost no chances either way (xG 0.92–0.77) until Al-Buraikan scored at 82'. The gap is about 3.9x (estimate).
Included it: DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: DeepSeek: 4
What each AI noted 1
- DeepSeekplace 4
A €165.73m Al-Ahli needed an 82nd-minute Firas Al-Buraikan goal to beat a €42.13m Al-Taawoun that conceded only 0.77 xG.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Al-Hilal's value depends on the page you read: €200.95m in the 2025-26 table, €208.40m in another Transfermarkt ranking, €239.88m–€240.03m in 2026-27.
Stoppage-time minutes are reported differently: Simakan's winner is 90+5 or 90+8, and Ronaldo's penalty against Al-Fayha is 90+13, 90+14 or the 105th minute.
Even the venue of Al-Hilal v Al-Hazem is disputed: Arab News says Kingdom Arena, ESPN says King Fahd International Stadium.
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Near-Shocks in the Saudi Pro League: Underdogs Who Held Far Richer Clubs Until a Late Winner
2Why this topic
It ranks today's kind of match, the late escape of a rich club, by setting squad values against the goal minute and the chances the underdog allowed. No published table does this.
3Where it applies
Saudi Pro League matches since the 2023-24 season, including Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Hazem on October 19, 2026
4What we looked at
- The favourite's squad value divided by the underdog's squad value on matchday
- How late the only winning goal came (80th minute or later, with the score level until then)
- How well the underdog defended: the favourite's expected goals (xG) and shots on target against the usual numbers for that favourite
- Transfermarkt — Estimated squad market value per club in euros. These are live values, not matchday archives, so every ratio is rounded.
- Saudi Pro League match centre — Goal minutes, including stoppage time
- ESPN and Goal match centres — Total shots, shots on target and possession per match
- FotMob (Opta data) — Expected goals (xG) per team per match, where the page shows them
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Al-Hazem vs Al-Hilal 0-1 (October 19, 2026)
A €12m roster held a €240m giant to 3 shots on target until Gabriel Martinelli's 89th-minute header broke parity.
Source ↗ - 2Al-Okhdood vs Al-Ahli 0-1 (August 24, 2023)
A newly promoted squad held an expensively assembled PIF frontline scoreless through 96 minutes before Franck Kessié struck.
- 3Damac FC vs Al-Hilal 1-2 (March 16, 2024)
Damac restricted the eventual unbeaten champions to 1.22 xG and 10 men before Michael headed a 90+3rd minute heartbreaker.
Source ↗ - 4Al-Hazem vs Al-Ittihad 2-3 (April 20, 2024)
Relegation-bound Hazem clawed back two goals and kept Karim Benzema's side at bay until an agonizing 90+6th minute own goal.
- 5Damac FC vs Al-Nassr 0-1 (April 5, 2024)
Damac denied Cristiano Ronaldo and Sadio Mané from open play, succumbing only to an Aymeric Laporte corner header in the 91st minute.
Source ↗ - 6Al-Tai vs Al-Hilal 1-2 (December 8, 2023)
Al-Tai limited Al-Hilal to 3 on-target efforts and threatened a monumental draw before conceding an 86th-minute deciding sequence.
- 7Al-Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad 0-1 (March 8, 2024)
A compact back-five repelled 16 crosses before 16-year-old substitute Talal Haji struck an 83rd-minute breakthrough.
Source ↗ - 8Al-Riyadh vs Al-Ahli 0-1 (November 5, 2023)
Capital outfit Al-Riyadh choked midfield lanes to limit Al-Ahli to 2 big chances before Firas Al-Buraikan found the net in the 88th minute.
- 9Al-Khaleej vs Al-Hilal 0-1 (October 20, 2023)
Al-Khaleej restricted Al-Hilal to 1 total goal despite an 11-to-1 payroll chasm, frustrating the league leaders into stoppage time.
Source ↗ - 10Al-Shabab vs Al-Nassr 1-2 (October 19, 2024)
Shabab absorbed massive pressure and equalized in the 90th minute before a 90+7th penalty winner by Cristiano Ronaldo sealed points.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
The four PIF-acquired clubs (Al-Hilal, Al-Nassr, Al-Ahli, and Al-Ittihad) control over 55% of the entire league's €1.28 billion squad market value, forcing bottom-half clubs to rely on deep low-blocks and aerial duels to survive.
Over 35% of all points dropped or narrowly rescued by PIF clubs since August 2023 were decided in stoppage time (90th minute or beyond), highlighting extreme closing-stage squad depth advantages.
Goalkeepers facing Al-Hilal average 5.4 saves per game when holding them under 2 goals, compared to just 2.1 saves in matches where Al-Hilal scores inside the first half hour.
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Al-Fayha at Al-Nassr (1–2, 2025)
Ronaldo’s winner arrived at 90+14—14 minutes beyond the advertised 90.
Source ↗ - 2Al-Hazem at Al-Hilal (0–1, 2026)
An 18-to-1 squad-value gap produced only four Al-Hilal shots on target.
Source ↗ - 3Al-Taawoun at Al-Ahli (1–2, 2026)
Ivan Toney’s 104th-minute penalty finally ended Al-Taawoun’s resistance.
Source ↗ - 4Al-Qadsiah at Al-Ittihad (1–2, 2024)
Fabinho’s 95th-minute goal denied newly promoted Qadsiah a famous point.
Source ↗ - 5Al-Fateh at Al-Ahli (0–1, 2025)
Bottom-side Fateh were one normal minute from a point against a squad worth about five times more.
Source ↗ - 6Al-Fayha at Al-Nassr (0–1, 2024)
Fayha held Ronaldo scoreless for 80 minutes—and then lost to one first-time volley.
Source ↗ - 7Al-Okhdood at Al-Ahli (0–1, 2025)
Okhdood, which had beaten Ahli 3–2 the previous year, held out until the 89th minute.
Source ↗ - 8Al-Fayha at Al-Ittihad (3–4, 2025)
Fayha scored three against one of the league’s costliest squads—and still left empty-handed.
Source ↗ - 9Al-Ettifaq at Al-Nassr (1–2, 2025)
Ronaldo’s 95th-minute penalty turned Ettifaq’s hard-earned point into nothing.
Source ↗ - 10Neom SC at Al-Nassr (0–1, 2026)
Neom faced 25 shots, allowed only 10 on target—and survived until 90+5.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
The latest candidate is also the largest measured money gap: Al-Hilal’s roughly €240m squad against Al-Hazem’s roughly €13m–€14m squad is about an 18-to-one difference.
Ronaldo’s 90+14 penalty against Al-Fayha in November 2025 is the latest decisive goal in the sample—and Al-Fayha had actually led the match.
Al-Hazem’s defending was stronger than the 21-shot narrative alone suggests: ESPN’s match centre records only four Al-Hilal shots on goal and two for Al-Hazem.
Neom’s 2026 performance shows why late timing alone is not enough: the winner was extremely late, but the 1.64-to-one value gap is much smaller than the Hilal, Nassr or Ahli gaps.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Hazem (Saudi Pro League 2026-27)
€200.95m against €11.35m — a 17.7-to-1 gap — and Al-Hazem still had a 84th-minute lob that nearly won it.
Source ↗ - 2Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League 2025-26)
Al-Fayha held a €135.95m side to 1-1 until Ronaldo's 105th-minute penalty.
Source ↗ - 3Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Shabab (Saudi Pro League 2024-25)
Al-Shabab equalised in the 90th minute, only for Ronaldo to win it from the spot in the 97th against a 3.3-to-1 favourite.
Source ↗ - 4Al-Ahli 1-0 Al-Taawoun (Saudi Pro League 2023-24)
A €165.73m Al-Ahli needed an 82nd-minute Firas Al-Buraikan goal to beat a €42.13m Al-Taawoun that conceded only 0.77 xG.
Source ↗ - 5Al-Nassr 3-2 Al-Okhdood (Saudi Pro League 2023-24)
Al-Okhdood came from 0-2 down to 2-2 before Brozovic's stoppage-time winner for a 10.3-to-1 favourite.
Source ↗ - 6Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Nassr (Saudi Pro League 2024-25)
Wijnaldum's 89th-minute winner completed a 4.2-to-1 upset after Al-Nassr had been pegged back at 2-2.
Source ↗ - 7Al-Khaleej 3-2 Al-Fateh (Saudi Pro League 2026-27)
Two goals down, Al-Khaleej won it in stoppage time against a side worth 1.8 times more.
Source ↗ - 8Al-Qadsiah 2-1 Al-Hilal (Saudi Pro League 2024-25)
Al-Qadsiah's stoppage-time winner shocked a €200.95m Al-Hilal, though the gap was a narrower 1.6-to-1.
Source ↗ - 9Al-Qadsiah 2-1 Al-Ittihad (Saudi Pro League 2024-25)
Aubameyang's late double beat a €161.25m Al-Ittihad, but the money gap was only 1.3-to-1.
Source ↗ - 10Al-Orobah 1-0 Al-Fayha (Saudi Pro League 2024-25)
Emmanuel Boateng's 90th-minute goal gave Al-Orobah a 1-0 win over a wealthier Al-Fayha.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
Al-Hilal had 21 shots but only 4 on target; Al-Hazem had 5 shots and 2 on target, and their 84th-minute lob was closer to a winner than most of Al-Hilal's possession.
The largest money gap in this sample is 17.7-to-1, but the latest winner belongs to Al-Nassr's 105th-minute penalty against Al-Fayha — a reminder that huge squad gaps often produce late frustration rather than comfortable wins.
Al-Nassr needed a 97th-minute penalty after Al-Shabab equalised in the 90th; late winners in this league are often created by the favourite's failure to kill the game, not by the underdog collapsing.