Back to the trend of the day: A late goal off the bench puts Dortmund top in Germany
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

Bundesliga table vs expected points 2026/27

Hamburg had nine points despite expected-points models putting them near five, while Dortmund’s late win made them the actual table leaders.

  • No. 1: Borussia Dortmund
  • 8 places

01Final list

The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    Borussia Dortmund

    Dortmund led with 17 points after Beier’s win; pre-win expected-points snapshots range from 11.3 to 15.1, so their gap is provisional.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Qwen. Did not include: Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Gemini: 3 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: see list · Qwen: 7

    What each AI noted 8
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Geminiplace 3

      Scored 10 goals off the bench in roughly 1,050 substitute minutes (0.86 G/90), turning tied matches into Dortmund victories before his loan spells.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 4

      Five goals and two assists off the bench in 2022/23 — the highest bench goal-involvement (7) of any player in the five-season window.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Qwenplace 7

      League leaders who are slightly outperforming their elite chance creation by +2.3 points.

      Source ↗
    8 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    TSG Hoffenheim

    Six actual points trail estimates of 7.9–9.0; the supplied answers disagree on the gap and on match cutoff.

    Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: see list · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Geminiplace 4

      Capped his super-sub reputation with an 80th-minute winner against Frankfurt on October 24, 2026, totaling 7 career sub goals with 4 standing as decisive match-winners.

    • Kimi

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    SV Elversberg

    Ten official points compare with estimates from 5.7 to 7.8; the positive gap survives, but its size does not.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Kimi: see list · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimi

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. 4

    FC Augsburg

    Nine points and sharply different xPts readings make Augsburg a model-disagreement case: one model says above expectation, another below.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 6

      The truest super-sub of the five: five goals spread across 24 bench appearances and 617 minutes in 2025/26 — impact by persistence, not cameo luck.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  5. 5

    SV Werder Bremen

    Nine to twelve actual points appear across the supplied snapshots; the inconsistent cutoff prevents a single defensible gap.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Kimi: see list · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimi

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 6

    SC Freiburg

    Thirteen official points sit above some cited estimates, but answers also report a negative gap; this is a clear model and cutoff dispute.

    Included it: ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: ChatGPT · Grok: see list · Gemini: 8 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 5
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Geminiplace 8

      Tallied 6 goals off the bench in 810 minutes (0.67 G/90), serving as Freiburg's late tactical hammer to press tiring center-backs.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 8

      The benchmark nobody in the window touches: 34 career bench goals — a record built on exactly the role this ranking celebrates.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 7

    Hamburger SV

    Nine actual points versus 4.6–5.7 expected across the cited models; the size is consistent, though the snapshots differ.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Kimi: see list

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimi

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  8. 8

    Bayer 04 Leverkusen

    Thirteen points are near or above expected in the cited models; the reported gap ranges from +0.4 to +2.4.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · Kimi: 3

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 3

      Five bench goals in 2024/25 with zero penalties — the cleanest all-round super-sub season of the last five years.

      Source ↗
    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

Expected-points estimates use different models and match cutoffs, so the gaps are not directly comparable.

1Borussia Dortmund

No. 1 — Borussia Dortmund. On the lists of 8 of 9 AIs; median place there: 4. The AIs put Dortmund first because they led the actual table, though their gap over expected points remained provisional.

Did you know

  • Borussia Dortmund became the first German Bundesliga club to go public. Its shares began trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on 31 October 2000, at an initial offering price of eleven euros. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
What it is
Dortmund led the actual table after Beier’s late win.
Its edge
Their 17 points led the three teams, though estimates varied.
Who should know
Useful to readers tracking the gap between results and models.
  • Actual points vs expected points17 points

Wikipedia · Wikidata

History

  • In 2005, Borussia Dortmund was close to insolvency after its costly stadium expansion and financial obligations became too much. President Reinhard Rauball and new CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke helped avert the collapse and begin rebuilding the club’s finances. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Dortmund’s 17 points came from seven matches; xG-based expected points put them at 11.89. That gap is a model signal, not proof the results were undeserved.

    Source ↗
What people say

  • “I’m happy with that. It’s a good start.” — Maximilian Beier

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Visit SIGNAL IDUNA PARK on a guided stadium tour. Look first for the tour type and booking details; public tours have limited places. — (voice only)

    Source ↗

Video: The Rise, Fall, & Rebirth of Borussia Dortmund · HITC Sevens

Compare the top three ↓

2TSG Hoffenheim

No. 2 — TSG Hoffenheim. On the lists of 6 of 9 AIs; median place there: 4. The AIs placed Hoffenheim second because their six points fell short of expected-points estimates, despite disagreement on the size of the gap.

Heinmspielpremiere
Werner Rehm · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Hoffenheim reached the Bundesliga from Germany’s ninth tier in 18 years. The Guardian says the village had approximately 3,000 inhabitants at the time.

    Source ↗
What it is
Hoffenheim had six actual points.
Its edge
Their estimates were above actual points, unlike Elversberg’s positive gap.
Who should know
Useful to readers comparing results with model estimates.
  • Actual points vs expected pointsSix actual points

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Hoffenheim had 6 points from six matches, while the model put them at 9.7 expected points: 3.7 more than their results so far. — (voice only)

    Source ↗

  • Their chances still pointed to a positive goal difference: 11.03 xG created against 8.9 xG conceded across six matches. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • In their first Bundesliga season, Hoffenheim scored 42 goals in the first 17 matches and finished the halfway point level on points with Bayern Munich, ahead on goal difference.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 2008, Hoffenheim reached the Bundesliga after back-to-back promotions under coach Ralf Rangnick. The rise continued: in their first top-flight season, they shocked the league by reaching first place at the midpoint. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Hoffenheim have six points from six matches. On xPts they would sit 8th rather than 14th, but this is a model estimate, not a verdict on any result.

    Source ↗
What people say

  • “We probably deserved even more at the time.” — Andrej Kramarić

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • See TSG Hoffenheim’s official ticket page for the home match against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Look first at the match details and who can buy tickets. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

3SV Elversberg

No. 3 — SV Elversberg. On the lists of 6 of 9 AIs; median place there: —. The AIs put Elversberg third because their actual points exceeded estimates, though the size of that lead varied by model.

Did you know

  • In 2022, while still a third-division side, Elversberg beat Bundesliga club Bayer Leverkusen 4:3 in the DFB-Pokal’s first round. The club’s account says 7,414 people watched at its stadium. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
What it is
Elversberg had ten official points.
Its edge
Their actual points exceeded estimates, unlike Hoffenheim’s.
Who should know
Useful to readers following early-season gaps between results and models.
  • Actual points vs expected pointsTen official points

Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Elversberg had 10 points from six matches but 6.26 expected points, a +3.7 gap—the largest among these three teams. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
History

  • In 2023, Elversberg turned a surprise promotion to the third tier into a second straight climb: a 2–1 win at Ingolstadt secured the title and the club’s first-ever place in the 2. Bundesliga. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Elversberg have 10 points from seven matches and a goal difference of -3. Their xPts estimate is 5.94; a small early-season sample can make that gap change.

    Source ↗
What people say

  • “The lads make me very proud, especially the attitude with which they have approached things.” — Vincent Wagner

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Check SV Elversberg’s official ticket page before planning a visit. Look first at the 2026/2027 season note: only a small number of day tickets are available, for members. — (voice only)

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

Borussia DortmundTSG HoffenheimSV Elversberg
In the AIs' lists8 / 96 / 96 / 9
Actual points vs expected points17 pointsSix actual pointsTen official points
Put first by———

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Expected-points models estimate average points from chance quality; they are not official standings and do not prove that a result was undeserved.

Noticed by:
Included it: ChatGPT. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

Hamburg’s expected-points gap varies from +3.3 to +4.4 across the cited models and snapshots.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok. Did not include: Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

Augsburg’s gap changes sign between the cited xPts tables, so its position depends on the model used.

Noticed by:
Included it: Meta, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

The expected-points pages do not share one match cutoff: some show six matches while the official table includes Matchday 7 results.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Grok, Gemini, Wenxin, Qwen.
Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Bundesliga teams whose table position tells only half the story

2Why this topic

Comparing official points with two independent expected-points models shows whether clubs near the top are also creating chances to sustain their position.

3Where it applies

Germany’s Bundesliga, 2026/27 season

4What we looked at

  • Compare each team’s official points with expected points derived from chances created and conceded, adjusting for matches played.
  • Show the actual-to-expected gap as a signal of results or finishing running ahead of chance quality, not proof that results were undeserved.
  • Bundesliga official table — Points, matches played, wins, draws, losses, goals for and against, and goal difference.
  • Statz — xG, xGA and modelled expected points; its cited snapshot covered six matches for several clubs.
  • xGboard / Tactix — Expected goals converted into expected points and table position; snapshots in the answers did not consistently include Matchday 7.
  • TheFishy — A separate expected-points table derived from xG, useful for comparison where the same match cutoff is available.

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin, Qwen.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Serge Gnabry

    Ten of his 15 Bundesliga joker goals have come in the last five seasons.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Yussuf Poulsen

    A career of 14 joker goals, 10 of them since 2021 and one of the few big-name finishers who is happier off the bench.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Ermedin Demirović

    Ten bench goals, tied for the lead, and a forward who has gone on to become a starter at Stuttgart.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Julian Brandt

    Nine bench goals in this window, from a career total of 18 that is level second-best on the all-time list with Zickler.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Luca Waldschmidt

    Nine of 13 career joker goals have come since 2021, and his role has shifted to the bench.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Deniz Undav

    All nine of his career joker goals fall in this five-year window, and he was the 2025/26 league's second-top scorer with 19.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Michael Gregoritsch

    Eight in this window out of 12 career joker goals, the 18th highest ever.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Mathys Tel

    Eight substitute goals, including 4 in 2023/24 plus 3 assists, from a teenager at Bayern.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Jeong Woo-yeong

    Eight bench goals, from a career total of 9 that puts him level with Kramarić, Musiala and Undav.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Youssoufa Moukoko

    Eight bench goals while still a young player.

    Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Substitutes scored a record 180 Bundesliga goals in 2025/26, 29 more than the old record from 2022/23. Sportschau credits the permanent five-substitutions rule.

Source ↗

Nils Petersen holds the all-time Bundesliga record with 34 goals off the bench, ahead of Claudio Pizarro (21). His last came in 2022/23.

Source ↗

Paco Alcácer still holds the single-season record with 12 substitute goals for Dortmund in 2018/19.

Source ↗

This season, Rômulo (Leipzig) and Maurice Krattenmacher (Elversberg) lead with 3 each; Dortmund have Nmecha with 2, plus one each from Beier and Fábio Silva.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Mathys Tel

    10 goals as sub since Aug 2022 in 1,281 mins — more than any other Bundesliga player in that span

  2. 2
    Serge Gnabry

    5 of 7 goals as sub in 2024/25 — league's most prolific super sub that season

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Gio Reyna

    5 sub goals in 2022/23 — joint league-best

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Lars Stindl

    5 of 8 goals as sub in final Gladbach season — scored off bench in last 3 games

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Nils Petersen

    34 goals as sub — all-time Bundesliga joker record

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Maurice Krattenmacher

    3 goals in 3 games all off bench — Europe top-5 most lethal sub to start 2026/27

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Maximilian Beier

    80th-minute winner off bench puts Dortmund top — second 1-0 winner in 4 games

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Paco Alcacer

    12 goals off bench in 2018/19 — single-season joker record

  9. 9
    Julian Brandt

    Now 3rd all-time joker — only Petersen 34 and Pizarro 21 ahead, shares with Zickler

  10. 10
    Jamie Bynoe-Gittens

    Part of Dortmund's 7 bench goals — joint-most in 2026/27 so far

    Source ↗

What Meta noticed

Substitutes score at 0.28 goals per 90 vs starters 0.15 — nearly twice as likely to score, per Stats Perform data.

Source ↗

Bundesliga saw record 151 sub goals in 2022/23, 145 in 2024/25, and 180 in 2025/26 — super-sub impact rising with five-sub rule.

Source ↗

Krattenmacher is 2026/27's most productive substitute scorer across Europe's top five leagues with 3 goals in opening 3 games all off bench.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Nils Petersen (career / last five seasons context)

    34 career substitute goals remains the Bundesliga record; 13 since 2019-20

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Serge Gnabry

    13 substitute goals since 2019-20, matching the top of the recent period

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Yussuf Poulsen

    13 substitute goals since 2019-20 across Leipzig and later clubs

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Julian Brandt

    18 career substitute goals, third all-time and 11 since 2019-20

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Youssoufa Moukoko

    10 substitute goals since 2019-20 in limited minutes

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Ermedin Demirović

    10 substitute goals since 2019-20 with strong per-minute output

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Jeong Woo-yeong

    10 substitute goals since 2019-20 across multiple clubs

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Jamal Musiala

    10 substitute goals since 2019-20 while often used as an impact option early in his career

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Gian-Luca Waldschmidt

    10 substitute goals since 2019-20 and 15 career

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Deniz Undav

    9 substitute goals since 2019-20 at a high per-90 rate

    Source ↗

What Grok noticed

Nils Petersen’s 34 career substitute goals remain the clear all-time Bundesliga benchmark; no active player is close.

Source ↗

Since 2019-20 the leading group is tightly bunched at 10–13 goals, with Gnabry, Poulsen and Petersen sharing the top mark.

Source ↗

Julian Brandt has climbed to third on the all-time list with 18 substitute goals, illustrating sustained impact as a late-game option for Dortmund.

Source ↗

Players such as Undav and Demirović post high goals-per-90 rates from the bench, showing that volume and efficiency can tell different stories.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Mathys Tel (FC Bayern Munich)

    Averaging 0.98 goals per 90 minutes as a substitute, netting 12 goals off the bench across approximately 1,100 substitute minutes with 5 decisive match-winners.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Nils Petersen (SC Freiburg)

    The Bundesliga's ultimate historical joker retired with 34 career bench goals, contributing 9 substitute strikes in his final campaigns at a clip of one goal every 88 minutes.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Youssoufa Moukoko (Borussia Dortmund)

    Scored 10 goals off the bench in roughly 1,050 substitute minutes (0.86 G/90), turning tied matches into Dortmund victories before his loan spells.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Maximilian Beier (TSG Hoffenheim / Borussia Dortmund)

    Capped his super-sub reputation with an 80th-minute winner against Frankfurt on October 24, 2026, totaling 7 career sub goals with 4 standing as decisive match-winners.

  5. 5
    Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (FC Bayern Munich)

    Produced 8 goals off the bench in 820 substitute minutes (0.88 G/90), functioning as Bayern's premier physical target to unlock stubborn low defensive blocks.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Steffen Tigges (Borussia Dortmund / 1. FC Köln)

    Recorded 7 goals as a substitute across 780 minutes (0.81 G/90), with 71% of his substitute tallies either tying or winning the game in the final 15 minutes.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Florian Niederlechner (FC Augsburg / Hertha BSC)

    Delivered 6 substitute goals in 740 minutes (0.73 G/90), specializing in stoppage-time penalty-box scrambles that repeatedly rescued relegation rivals.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Lucas Höler (SC Freiburg)

    Tallied 6 goals off the bench in 810 minutes (0.67 G/90), serving as Freiburg's late tactical hammer to press tiring center-backs.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Kevin Behrens (1. FC Union Berlin / VfL Wolfsburg)

    Netted 6 substitute goals in 850 minutes (0.64 G/90), generating 5 game-deciding points almost exclusively from late aerial headers.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Ermedin Demirović (SC Freiburg / FC Augsburg / VfB Stuttgart)

    Scored 6 goals off the bench across 890 minutes (0.61 G/90), combining clinical poaching with tireless counter-pressing across three different clubs.

    Source ↗

What Gemini noticed

Nils Petersen holds the unbreakable all-time Bundesliga record with 34 career goals scored as a substitute, earning the German moniker 'Fußballgott' and establishing Freiburg's culture of lethal late-game changes.

Source ↗

Mathys Tel boasts the highest substitute goal-scoring rate in recent Bundesliga history among players with at least 30 bench appearances, registering nearly 1.00 goal per 90 minutes off the bench.

Source ↗
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Harry Kane (Bayern Munich, England)

    The world's most expensive super-sub: 5 bench goals in 228 minutes in 2025/26 — a goal every 46 minutes — inside a 36-goal Torjägerkanone season.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Jonathan Burkardt (Eintracht Frankfurt, Germany)

    A goal every 29 bench minutes in 2025/26 — the best rate in the ranking — with the twist that four of his five came from the penalty spot.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Serge Gnabry (Bayern Munich, Germany)

    Five bench goals in 2024/25 with zero penalties — the cleanest all-round super-sub season of the last five years.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund, USA)

    Five goals and two assists off the bench in 2022/23 — the highest bench goal-involvement (7) of any player in the five-season window.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Lars Stindl (Borussia Mönchengladbach, Germany)

    Five in 185 minutes in 2022/23 — a goal every 37 minutes, the best non-penalty rate of the five-goal club.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Stefan Schimmer (1. FC Heidenheim, Germany)

    The truest super-sub of the five: five goals spread across 24 bench appearances and 617 minutes in 2025/26 — impact by persistence, not cameo luck.

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  7. 7
    Yussuf Poulsen (RB Leipzig, Denmark)

    14 career joker goals — joint eighth in Bundesliga history and the highest active name on the all-time bench-scoring list.

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  8. 8
    Nils Petersen (SC Freiburg, Germany)

    The benchmark nobody in the window touches: 34 career bench goals — a record built on exactly the role this ranking celebrates.

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  9. 9
    Ermedin Demirović (VfB Stuttgart, Bosnia & Herzegovina)

    Four bench goals in 130 minutes in 2025/26 — a strike every 32 minutes, the most ruthless short-burst scoring in the window.

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  10. 10
    Serhou Guirassy (VfB Stuttgart, Guinea)

    Three goals in 145 bench minutes in 2025/26 (1.86 per 90) — a bench cameo as efficient as his starting shift.

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What Kimi noticed

Five is the ceiling: across the last five Bundesliga seasons no player has scored more than 5 substitute goals in a single campaign — the single-season record of 12 (Paco Alcácer, 2018/19) remains untouched since before the window began.

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The 2025/26 bench-goal title was a three-way tie on 5: Kane, Burkardt and Schimmer — but their stories diverge wildly: 228, 143 (4 penalties) and 617 minutes respectively.

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The theme is alive right now: Maximilian Beier scored twice off the bench in 2025/26 and his 80th-minute winner against Frankfurt on 24 October 2026 — his first of 2026/27 — is what sent Dortmund top.

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The single greatest substitute performance in league history still belongs to Robert Lewandowski: five goals in nine minutes after coming on against Wolfsburg in September 2015, a Guinness World Record.

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🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Julian Brandt

    Seven Jokertore in 2025/26 alone — more than any other player's single-season bench total in the recent sample.

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  2. 2
    Serge Gnabry

    Five bench goals in 2024/25 and 15 career — the highest active career total behind Brandt.

  3. 3
    Stefan Schimmer

    Five goals from 20 substitute appearances for the bottom club — the purest 2025/26 super-sub.

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  4. 4
    Nick Woltemade

    Three league goals off the bench in 2024/25 per Transfermarkt; a fourth was reported mid-season — the definition and timing differ.

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  5. 5
    Harry Kane

    Four bench goals in 2025/26 — a super-sub return few expect from a 36-year-old starter.

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  6. 6
    Said El Mala

    Four goals and three assists off the bench in 2025/26 — the most complete Joker contribution.

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  7. 7
    Jonas Wind

    Three goals in 176 substitute minutes — 0.43 per substitute appearance in 2024/25.

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  8. 8
    Deniz Undav

    Three goals in 103 substitute minutes — 0.75 per substitute appearance, the best rate in this top 10.

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  9. 9
    Jamie Gittens

    Two goals in 147 substitute minutes — a 0.50-per-appearance rate in 2024/25.

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  10. 10
    Nils Petersen

    Thirty-four career Jokertore — the record that still defines the search, even though only the tail of his career falls in the five-season window.

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What DeepSeek noticed

Stefan Schimmer was the best individual Joker of 2025/26 with five goals from 20 substitute appearances, even though Heidenheim finished bottom.

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Said El Mala's four goals and three assists off the bench made him the most complete substitute contributor of 2025/26, not just a pure goalscorer.

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Julian Brandt's 18 career Jokertore put him joint third all-time, behind only Nils Petersen (34) and Claudio Pizarro (21).

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🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Maximilian Beier

    11 goals off the bench across 5 seasons with a 1.24 goals per 90 substitute rate, including the 80th minute 1-0 winner that put Dortmund top on Oct 24 2026

  2. 2
    Sebastian Haller

    14 substitute goals with 0.92 goals per 90, 7 of his bench goals came as 75+ minute winners that secured 12 total league points

  3. 3
    Leroy Sane

    12 substitute goals with 0.88 goals per 90, 60% of his career Bundesliga bench goals have come in title-deciding match situations

  4. 4
    Patrik Schick

    13 substitute goals with 0.79 goals per 90, he has scored more bench goals for Bayer Leverkusen than any other player in the last 5 seasons

  5. 5
    Andrej Kramaric

    10 substitute goals with 0.81 goals per 90, 8 of his Hoffenheim bench goals have directly secured 9 points for the side to avoid relegation scraps

  6. 6
    Rafael Leao

    9 substitute goals with 0.85 goals per 90, his xG per 90 off the bench is 60% lower than his actual conversion rate, showing elite clinical efficiency

  7. 7
    Marco Reus

    11 substitute goals with 0.72 goals per 90, 80% of his late career Bundesliga goals have come after coming off the bench since 2021

  8. 8
    Niclas Fullkrug

    12 substitute goals with 0.69 goals per 90, half of his Werder Bremen Bundesliga goals across the period came as a late game-changing substitute

  9. 9
    Youssoufa Moukoko

    10 substitute goals with 0.97 goals per 90, the highest goals per 90 rate of any teenager to record 5+ bench goals in Bundesliga history

  10. 10
    Karim Adeyemi

    8 substitute goals with 0.77 goals per 90, his pace off the bench has generated more game-winning late chances than any other Dortmund attacker in the period

What Wenxin noticed

Players with more than 10 substitute goals across the last 5 seasons have collectively secured over 120 extra league points for their respective sides

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🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    SC Freiburg (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Sitting 3rd in the league but only 13th in chance creation, surviving on a +5.3 point overperformance.

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  2. 2
    VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    A brutal 15th-place reality masking the 3rd-best underlying chance quality in Germany.

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  3. 3
    Borussia Mönchengladbach (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Dead last in points but 12th in expected returns, suffering from a -4.8 finishing deficit.

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  4. 4
    Hamburger SV (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Riding a massive +3.4 point wave of good fortune to sit comfortably mid-table.

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  5. 5
    FC Schalke 04 (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Only 5 points on the board despite an underlying performance worth nearly 8.

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  6. 6
    FC Augsburg (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    A +2.7 gap shows they are turning poor underlying numbers into steady mid-table returns.

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  7. 7
    Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    League leaders who are slightly outperforming their elite chance creation by +2.3 points.

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  8. 8
    SV Werder Bremen (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Tied with a +2.3 overperformance, masking their 15th-ranked expected points profile.

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  9. 9
    Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Exactly mirroring their 4th place standing with a +2.3 clinical edge over their xPts.

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  10. 10
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga 2026/27)

    Stuck in 14th place despite generating chances worth a solid 8th-place return.

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What Qwen noticed

FC Bayern München's 14 points perfectly align with their league-leading 14.4 expected points, showing they are exactly as dominant as their results suggestradarfooty.com.

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VfB Stuttgart's massive -4.8 gap is the most alarming early-season signal, as their underlying xG ranks 3rd in the division despite their lowly table positionradarfooty.com.

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SC Freiburg boasts the league's best expected goals against (0.77 xGA), yet they are overperforming their points total by the widest marginxg-edge.com.

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