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Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

ATP Race to Turin Standings vs Elo 2026: Top 10 Gaps

Flavio Cobolli holds 5th place in the race to Turin but is only 34th on hard-court Elo, while João Fonseca is 10th on Elo and around 40th in the Race.

  • No. 1: Novak Djokovic
  • 10 places

01Final list

The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    Novak Djokovic

    4th on hard-court Elo (2,015.2) but 11th in the Race on 2,840. A light schedule holds him back, and Basel and Paris are his last chances to close the gap.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: see list · Meta: 4 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: see list · StepFun: see list · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 2

    What each AI noted 8
    • Claudeplace 8

      80.2% indoors with 19 indoor hard titles, but an overall hard-court record of 84%, so the indoor edge is small.

      Source ↗
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Metaplace 4

      80.2% indoor win rate 2nd-best active after Sinner — 34-0 in Beijing shows roof boost despite 39 years

    • Grokplace 3

      19 indoor hard titles including multiple Finals and Paris Masters; career indoor mark at or above 80%

      Source ↗
    • Gemini

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • StepFun

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 6

      Race 11th, hard-court Elo 4th - at 39 the most selective schedule in the top 25, and Elo still refuses to age him.

    • DeepSeekplace 2

      94.7% indoors in 2022–25 against 82.9% on outdoor hard — an 11.8-point gap, but only 19 indoor matches.

      Source ↗
    8 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    Flavio Cobolli

    5th in the Race on 3,590 points but 34th on hard-court Elo (1,789.8). That 29-place gap is the largest of any player holding a Turin place. His overall Elo rank is 27th.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Gemini, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT: see list · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · StepFun: see list · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 7
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPT

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • StepFun

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 3

      Fifth in the actual race to Turin yet 34th in hard-court Elo - the only man inside the Turin cut with a 25-plus-place divergence.

    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    7 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    Frances Tiafoe

    7th in the Race on 3,380, the last guaranteed place, but only 14th on hard-court Elo (1,901.5). He withdrew injured from Lyon.

    Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · Meta: see list · Grok: see list · StepFun: 10 · Kimi: 8 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 6
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Meta

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Grok

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • StepFunplace 10

      Six of his seven hard-court titles came at fast or indoor events - Antwerp, Metz, Marseille, Dubai - and he says he prefers the quicker surfaces.

    • Kimiplace 8

      Seventh in the race - ahead of Medvedev - but hard-court Elo puts him only 14th.

    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    6 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. 4

    Casper Ruud

    16th on hard-court Elo (1,874.8) but 23rd in the Race on 1,985. Elo rates his hard-court level higher than his 2026 points do.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 3 · Gemini: see list · Kimi: 7 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 3

      A clay specialist who still went 13-3 indoors in 2025 and reached the top three of the ATP indoor index.

      Source ↗
    • Gemini

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 7

      Race points built on clay; on hard courts Elo trusts him more than the race does - 16th vs 23rd.

    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  5. 5

    Taylor Fritz

    13th in the Race on 2,580 but 20th on hard-court Elo (1,861.1). A 22 Oct tracker had him 629 points short of 8th place.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi, Wenxin. Did not include: Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, DeepSeek.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · ChatGPT: 6 · Kimi: 9 · Wenxin: 3

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • ChatGPTplace 6

      His top-five grass Elo and top-20 hard-court Elo show why an overall rating cannot be used as a proxy for indoor-specific performance.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 9

      Race 13th, hard-court Elo 20th - the American's consistency outruns what Elo thinks of his level.

    • Wenxinplace 3

      Race #8 but Elo says top-5 caliber — a 250-hoarding strategy that Elo punishes less than Race does

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 6

    Stefanos Tsitsipas

    21st on hard-court Elo (1,854.6) but 30th–31st in the Race on 1,430–1,440 points: a gap of 9 to 10 places in Elo's favour.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek.

    In their lists: Claude: see list · Gemini: see list · Kimi: 5 · Wenxin: 9

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claude

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Gemini

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • Kimiplace 5

      A former Elo darling (career peak 2,145) sitting 31st in the race but still 21st on hard courts.

    • Wenxinplace 9

      Race #14 but Elo says top-10 — the Greek's big-match ceiling keeps him below his Elo in points

      Source ↗
    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 7

    João Fonseca

    10th on hard-court Elo (1,933.1) but roughly 38th–40th in the Race on 1,200 points: the clearest case of a player stronger than his points.

    Included it: Claude, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 9 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: see list

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 9

      Won Basel 2025, beating Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-4: a fast indoor 500 title for a young player, but a small sample.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 2

      Elo's favorite underdog: 10th on hard courts but 40th in the race - 1,200 points do not buy what a 1,933 Elo says.

    • DeepSeek

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  8. 8

    Andrey Rublev

    21st in the Race on 2,075 but 28th on hard-court Elo (1,829.1). His points come from playing many events, not from big wins. Only one AI gave this.

    Included it: Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, StepFun, DeepSeek.

    In their lists: Gemini: 8 · Kimi: 10 · Wenxin: 7

    What each AI noted 3
    • Geminiplace 8

      Scores a +5.1% boost under the roof (69.3% indoor vs 64.2% outdoor), amassing 6 career indoor titles by battering baseline rhythm without weather disruption.

      Source ↗
    • Kimiplace 10

      Race 21st, hard-court Elo 28th - volume without signature wins, exactly the profile Elo deflates.

    • Wenxinplace 7

      Race #9 but Elo says he's a top-7 player — consistency on 500s hides in Race, shines in Elo

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  9. 9

    Luciano Darderi

    The widest raw gap: 20th in the Race but 62nd on hard-court Elo. Only one AI gave it, and his clay Elo is 24th, so most of the gap comes from clay points.

    Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Kimi: 1

    What each AI noted 1
    • Kimiplace 1

      20th in the Turin race, 62nd in hard-court Elo - the biggest raw mismatch of 2026, built on clay points (his clay Elo is 24th).

    1 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  10. 10

    Arthur Gea

    22nd on hard-court Elo (1,850.1) but 42nd in the Race on 1,146 points, a 20-place gap. Only one AI gave this.

    Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Kimi: 4

    What each AI noted 1
    • Kimiplace 4

      The algorithm rates the 21-year-old Frenchman as the 22nd-best hard-court player in the world; the race still has him at 42.

    1 AIs put it here
    Source ↗

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The gaps are counted in places, not points. Race points and Elo ratings are different scales. Djokovic's gap runs the other way: his Elo place is better than his Race place.

1Novak Djokovic

No. 1 — Novak Djokovic. On the lists of 8 of 9 AIs; median place there: 4. The AIs say Djokovic's indoor-hard record is elite, even at 39, so Elo rates him far above his Race place.

Did you know

  • On the way to that 2008 title, Djokovic beat Roger Federer in the semifinal. Federer had beaten him in the 2007 US Open final. In the Australian Open final he lost the first set to Tsonga, then won in four.

    Source ↗
What it is
Serbian star, 39, with a light schedule this season.
Its edge
Elo ranks him 4th on hard courts, but he is 11th in the Race.
Who should know
Useful for fans wondering if a part-time schedule hides his true level.
  • Race place vs hard-court Elo place11th Race vs 4th Elo

Wikipedia · Wikidata

History

  • In January 2008, 20-year-old Novak Djokovic beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Australian Open final. It was his first Grand Slam title and the first for any Serbian man.

    Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs
Keep in mind

  • His repeat win at Dubai was far from smooth. He made 12 double faults and lost his serve six times, and Youzhny levelled the match after the rain break. Two breaks in the third set decided it.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Read the page on the 2010 Dubai tournament. Look at the final, where Djokovic beat Youzhny. It was his first defense there, so it marks where his run of different-city titles ended.

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

2Flavio Cobolli

No. 2 — Flavio Cobolli. On the lists of 7 of 9 AIs; median place there: 3. The AIs put Cobolli high because he holds a Turin place in the Race while hard-court Elo rates him far lower.

Cobolli WMQ23 (53061712891)
si.robi · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
2022 Roland Garros Qualifying Tournament - 34
DarDarCH · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Did you know

  • Flavio's father and coach, Stefano, was a pro too, and he climbed to No. 236 in the rankings. He also beat Stan Wawrinka, the same player Flavio later beat in Shanghai. Stefano became his coach when Flavio was 17.

    Source ↗
What it is
Italian player, 5th in the Race and in the Turin places.
Its edge
His gap is 29 places, the biggest of any Turin-place holder.
Who should know
Useful for fans asking if his Turin spot rests on more than hard-court form.
  • Race place vs hard-court Elo place5th Race vs 34th Elo

Wikipedia · Wikidata

Why it is here

  • Cobolli won the Acapulco ATP 500 in March, his first hard-court tour title and third overall. He dropped just one set all week and rose five places to a career-high No. 15.

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • Cobolli's close friend Edoardo Bove plays football. They met at age seven. He also has many tattoos, and one is a quote from Roma legend Daniele De Rossi.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 2026 Flavio Cobolli reached his first Grand Slam final, at the French Open. His semi-final opponent Matteo Arnaldi withdrew, so he advanced without playing. In the final he lost to Alexander Zverev in five sets.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • His 2026 highlights are a first Grand Slam final at Roland Garros, lost in five sets to Zverev, and the Acapulco 500 title. Those points sit in the Race, but Elo rates hard courts only.

    Source ↗

  • Before Cincinnati he lost in Umag and Montreal. He called those among the worst matches of his career. He also said the pressure is higher now, so form can swing.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Read the bio first. It covers his rise from Top 100 in October 2023 to Top 10 in June 2026, after his first Grand Slam final at Roland Garros. That climb is the turning point to look for.

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

3Frances Tiafoe

No. 3 — Frances Tiafoe. On the lists of 6 of 9 AIs; median place there: 9. The AIs see Tiafoe as a Turin-place holder whose hard-court Elo is clearly lower, though by a smaller gap.

Did you know

  • Frances and his twin brother lived in an office at a Maryland tennis center where their father Constant worked as a custodian. Constant reportedly kept the complex clean by day and looked after the clay courts by night.

    Source ↗
What it is
American player, 7th in the Race, on the edge of the Turin places.
Its edge
His gap is smaller than Cobolli's, but he is still well ahead in the Race.
Who should know
Useful for fans watching whether injuries could cost him a Turin spot.
  • Race place vs hard-court Elo place7th Race vs 14th Elo

Wikipedia · Wikidata

History

  • At the 2022 US Open, Frances Tiafoe beat Rafael Nadal in the fourth round. Nadal was the No. 2 seed and a 22-time Grand Slam champion. The win sent Tiafoe to the quarter-finals and was the biggest win of his career up to then.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • In Montreal he retired in round three against Rinderknech, trailing 6-2 and 2-0. He said a right-hand injury was the cause, and doctors removed a cyst. Fitness is his main risk for Turin.

    Source ↗
What people say

  • Everything went well, and I appreciate all the messages and support; I will be back soon — Frances Tiafoe

    Source ↗

Video: 10 Minutes of Frances Tiafoe Putting On A Show! · Tennis TV

Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

Novak DjokovicFlavio CobolliFrances Tiafoe
In the AIs' lists8 / 97 / 96 / 9
Race place vs hard-court Elo place11th Race vs 4th Elo5th Race vs 34th Elo7th Race vs 14th Elo
Put first by———

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

Comparing the ATP ranking with overall Elo, Cobolli shows the largest disagreement on the whole Tennis Abstract table: ATP rank 6, Elo rank 27.

Noticed by:
Included it: StepFun, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Sinner is No. 1 on hard-court Elo (2,234.3) but is out for the season with a knee injury. His 7,950 Race points are frozen in 2nd place, so in practice 9th place in the Race gets the last spot.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, Meta, Grok, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Wenxin.
Source ↗

The projected cut for the last Turin place is 4,145 points. Only four players are above it, and Vienna, Basel and Paris still offer up to 2,000.

Noticed by:
Included it: StepFun, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

The Race and Elo figures were taken on different days. Elo is dated 19 Oct, and Medvedev's Race total reads 3,520 on ATP's live page but 3,460 on Wikipedia, so some gaps can move by a place.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT. Did not include: Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Elo providers disagree with each other. Wheel of Ratings swaps Zverev and Djokovic at No. 3 and No. 4 compared with Tennis Abstract, which changes several gaps by two places.

Noticed by:
Included it: Meta, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.
Source ↗

04Questions people ask

Who qualifies for ATP Finals 2026?

Zverev (9,150), Alcaraz (4,600) and Shelton (4,480) have qualified. Sinner (7,950) is out for the season, so Cobolli (3,590), Medvedev, Tiafoe, Fils and Jodar are chasing the remaining places, with a projected cut of 4,145.

Source ↗
Who qualifies for ATP Finals?

The top seven in the Race after the Paris Masters qualify, plus up to two current-year Grand Slam champions ranked 8th–20th. Otherwise the 8th-placed player takes the last spot. The 2026 event runs 15–22 November in Turin.

Source ↗
Why do Race to Turin tables show different points?

Live pages add points from tournaments still in progress. Medvedev shows 3,520 on ATP's live page and 3,460 on Wikipedia because they were read at different times, not calculated differently.

Source ↗

05How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 Players the ATP Race to Turin Rates Differently From Elo

2Why this topic

The reader sees, player by player, where the official race to the ATP Finals and an opponent-strength model disagree, which neither table shows by itself.

3Where it applies

Global men's professional tennis, 2026 season, players inside the top 25 of either list

4What we looked at

  • Gap in places between a player's 2026 ATP Race position and his hard-court Elo position
  • Direction of the gap: helped by the number of tournaments he played, or held back by points despite strong results
  • Points still to defend or still available before the Turin cut-off
  • ATP Tour, PIF ATP Live Race to Turin — 2026 points only, by tournament level and round reached; opponent strength not counted
  • live-tennis.eu, Live ATP Race — The same 2026 points with matches in progress counted, plus a projected cut for the last Turin place (23 Oct)
  • Tennis Abstract (Jeff Sackmann), hard-court Elo — A rating updated after every match that credits opponent strength, not the round or event. Updated 19 Oct 2026
  • Wikipedia, 2026 ATP Finals — Qualification rules, dates and who has qualified

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

06Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Félix Auger-Aliassime

    The only player with published splits: his first serve and his forehand both get stronger indoors, and his unreturned-serve rate rises from 32.8% to 35.7%.

  2. 2
    Ugo Humbert

    Won 16 of 17 indoor matches in France up to Feb 2025, finished runner-up in Paris 2024, and went 11-2 indoors in 2025.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Casper Ruud

    A clay specialist who still went 13-3 indoors in 2025 and reached the top three of the ATP indoor index.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Jannik Sinner

    31 indoor matches won in a row, and 100% (15-0) indoors in 2025 against 92.9% (39-3) on all hard courts.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Alexander Zverev

    8 of his 27 career titles came on indoor hard courts, and he has won both Paris and the ATP Finals.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Hubert Hurkacz

    Won the 2020 Paris Masters indoors, with a record of 205-105 indoors on one stats site.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Matteo Berrettini

    Tennis Abstract groups him with Hurkacz as having the same big-serve indoor profile as Auger-Aliassime, but with fewer titles.

  8. 8
    Novak Djokovic

    80.2% indoors with 19 indoor hard titles, but an overall hard-court record of 84%, so the indoor edge is small.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    João Fonseca

    Won Basel 2025, beating Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-4: a fast indoor 500 title for a young player, but a small sample.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Daniil Medvedev

    Defending Almaty champion, indoors now and 30-12 on hard in 2026, but I found no indoor split to back him as a specialist.

What Claude noticed

Sinner's 2025 indoor record of 15-0 beat his all-hard-court record of 39-3. His 31 indoor wins in a row were the longest active indoor streak.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Jannik Sinner indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    A 15-0 indoor season in 2025, three consecutive late-season titles and a 31-match indoor winning streak make him the benchmark.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Felix Auger-Aliassime indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    His 17-5 record and two indoor titles in 2025 are stronger evidence than a short run of wins, although his indoor edge still needs a matched outdoor comparison.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Ugo Humbert indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    An 11-2 indoor record in 2025 is an excellent signal, but 13 matches in one season cannot establish a stable three-season specialty by itself.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Casper Ruud indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    A 13-3 indoor record in 2025 is an 81.3% win rate and a reminder that indoor success is not restricted to the biggest servers.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Daniil Medvedev indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    The former ATP Finals champion remains a serious indoor candidate, but current hard-court Elo alone cannot prove an indoor advantage.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Taylor Fritz indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    His top-five grass Elo and top-20 hard-court Elo show why an overall rating cannot be used as a proxy for indoor-specific performance.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Alexander Bublik indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    A high-variance serve-and-first-strike game is a plausible fit for fast indoor courts, but style alone is not evidence of a positive indoor win-rate differential.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Hubert Hurkacz indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    A strong serve makes indoor hard courts a plausible match, but the ranking should depend on measured indoor-versus-outdoor results rather than serve reputation.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Ben Shelton indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    The left-handed serve gives him an obvious fast-court weapon, but a strong overall hard-court profile does not establish a distinct indoor advantage.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Stefanos Tsitsipas indoor hard-court specialist, 2024-2026

    His eighth-place clay Elo versus 21st-place hard-court Elo is a reminder that success on one surface should not be mistaken for universal strength.

    Source ↗

What ChatGPT noticed

Jannik Sinner went 15-0 indoors in 2025, winning Vienna, Paris and the ATP Finals. The ATP also reported a 31-match indoor winning streak, making his case substantially stronger than a one-event hot streak.

Source ↗

The ATP's 2025 indoor hard-court table put Humbert at 84.6%, Ruud at 81.3% and Auger-Aliassime at 77.3%. These are useful single-season snapshots, not proof that each player has a stable three-season indoor advantage.

Source ↗

A separate analysis covering 37,686 ATP and WTA matches reported that Elo favourites won 64.9% of indoor hard-court matches and 65.0% of outdoor hard-court matches. That result challenges the claim that indoor conditions automatically produce a measurable general advantage for favourites.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Jannik Sinner

    100% indoor 15-0 in 2025 with 31-match indoor streak — 90-21 career 4th-best Open Era indoors

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    75% indoor vs 60% overall — 79-115 career, 7 of 8 titles indoor, serve +2.9% unreturned indoors

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Ugo Humbert

    84.6% indoor 11-2 in 2025 — 2nd-best indoor % behind Sinner, thrives on fast Basel 1.44

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Novak Djokovic

    80.2% indoor win rate 2nd-best active after Sinner — 34-0 in Beijing shows roof boost despite 39 years

  5. 5
    Daniil Medvedev

    2020 ATP Finals champion — 3 titles Brisbane Dubai Hangzhou 2026, 6th in Race from indoor surge

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Casper Ruud

    81.3% indoor 13-3 in 2025 — 1 title, best indoor % among clay specialists

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Alexander Zverev

    Tour Finals speed 1.40 suits serve — 58 wins 2026 but indoor win% still elite

  8. 8
    Alexander Bublik

    Big serve gains most on fast indoor — hard Elo 1,868 vs 1,839 but win% jumps on Basel/Vienna 1.25-1.44

  9. 9
    Hubert Hurkacz

    Serve-driven indoor edge — 2nd-serve unreturned rate climbs, Stockholm 0.90 slow vs Athens 1.45 fast split

  10. 10
    Karen Khachanov

    Most indoor wins 14 in 2024 — Almaty speed 1.16 mid-fast, indoor specialist by volume not just %

    Source ↗

What Meta noticed

Sinner is perfect indoors in 2025: 15-0 with 100% win rate and 31-match streak, vs 92.9% on outdoor hard — roof adds ∼7% win probability.

Source ↗

FAA's groundstroke potency explodes indoors: FHP +8.5 per 100 indoors (Alcaraz level) vs +3.2 outdoors (Paul/Humbert level), BHP 0.0 vs -5.8.

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🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Eight indoor titles since 2022 and clear serve/return uplift under a roof versus outdoor hard

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Jannik Sinner

    Career indoor win percentage among the highest active; long winning streaks under roofs

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Novak Djokovic

    19 indoor hard titles including multiple Finals and Paris Masters; career indoor mark at or above 80%

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Daniil Medvedev

    Multiple indoor titles and historically strong results in fast indoor conditions

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Alexander Zverev

    Eight career indoor hard titles and consistent deep runs in the indoor swing

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Karen Khachanov

    High indoor hard win percentage in recent seasons with multiple deep runs

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Tommy Paul

    Strong indoor hard results and titles relative to outdoor hard baseline

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Hubert Hurkacz

    Big-serve game produces measurable uplift on faster indoor courts

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Taylor Fritz

    Solid indoor hard record with serve effectiveness rising under roofs

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Andrey Rublev

    Consistent indoor hard results and titles across multiple seasons

    Source ↗

What Grok noticed

Felix Auger-Aliassime has collected more indoor titles since 2022 than any other active player, including Sinner.

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Big servers generally post higher unreturned-serve percentages and shorter rallies indoors; the gap is measurable in serve and plus-one stats.

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Favourite win rate is slightly lower indoors (≈63.5%) than outdoor hard (≈64.3%), indicating more volatility under roofs.

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🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Félix Auger-Aliassime

    A +9.8% win-rate surge under a roof (70.5% indoor vs 60.7% outdoor), capturing all 5 of his career ATP titles in indoor conditions.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Alexander Bublik

    Leaps +15.6 percentage points under a roof (62.8% indoor vs 47.2% outdoor), leveraging zero air resistance to produce a tour-leading 17.8% ace rate.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Ugo Humbert

    Boosts his win rate by +10.9% indoors (65.2% indoor vs 54.3% outdoor), where flat southpaw redirections stay ultra-low on slick indoor acrylic.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Holger Rune

    Commands a 73.2% indoor win rate compared to 62.1% outdoors (+11.1%), highlighted by his breakthrough Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 championship.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Hubert Hurkacz

    Gains +8.2% in win percentage under a roof (68.4% indoor vs 60.2% outdoor), lifting his service hold rate to an elite 91.6% in still air.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Adrian Mannarino

    A +7.8% win-rate edge (58.1% indoor vs 50.3% outdoor), where flat, low-tension 10kg string bunts become unreadable nightmares without outdoor wind gusts.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Karen Khachanov

    Gains +5.7% under a roof (62.9% indoor vs 57.2% outdoor), turning heavy flat forehands into indoor titles across Paris-Bercy, Moscow, and the 2024/2026 Almaty Open.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Andrey Rublev

    Scores a +5.1% boost under the roof (69.3% indoor vs 64.2% outdoor), amassing 6 career indoor titles by battering baseline rhythm without weather disruption.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Daniil Medvedev

    Maintains an extraordinary 73.1% indoor hard win rate (95-35), winning both the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals and 2020 Paris Masters while defending his Almaty crown in October 2026.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Jannik Sinner

    Boasts a tour-leading 78.4% indoor win rate (69-19) vs 74.8% outdoors (+3.6%), turning controlled atmospheric pressure into an inescapable 89.2% service hold rate.

    Source ↗

What Gemini noticed

Félix Auger-Aliassime has won 100% of his ATP singles titles indoors (5 of 5), yet has contested 9 outdoor finals without winning a single title, demonstrating an unprecedented environment-dependent performance split.

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Alexander Bublik's win rate increases by +15.6% under a roof, the largest positive indoor differential among all active top-50 ATP players with at least 50 career indoor matches.

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🇨🇳 StepFun10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by StepFun alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Felix Auger-Aliassime (Canada)

    Eight of his nine ATP titles have come under a roof - the only active player whose trophy cabinet is mostly indoors.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Jannik Sinner (Italy)

    90-21 indoors, 81.1 per cent - the best indoor winning percentage of any active player, and he played no indoor match at all in 2026.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Alexander Bublik (Kazakhstan)

    8-0 on indoor hard in 2026 and 70-50 for his career indoors - a serve that travels better without wind.

  4. 4
    Alex de Minaur (Australia)

    He was 27 years old and 11 titles deep before he won his first match indoors that mattered - Rotterdam 2026.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Holger Rune (Denmark)

    78.8 per cent indoors against 48.6 per cent on outdoor hard - the biggest roof split on record, on a sample that injury has shrunk.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Tommy Paul (USA)

    Stockholm 2024: a title without dropping a set, and his first indoors in six years.

  7. 7
    Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria)

    100 indoor wins and a 2017 ATP Finals title indoors - and a 2026 season of 9-14 that shows how fast a specialty fades.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Casper Ruud (Norway)

    The clay-court specialist took the 2026 Stockholm crown on indoor hard, 6-2, 6-3.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Ben Shelton (USA)

    His 2026 Dallas title came on a court rated 1.47 - one of the fastest surfaces on tour.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Ugo Humbert (France)

    Six of his seven hard-court titles came at fast or indoor events - Antwerp, Metz, Marseille, Dubai - and he says he prefers the quicker surfaces.

What StepFun noticed

'Indoor' is not one condition: Tennis Abstract rates Montpellier at 1.49 and Dallas at 1.47, while the Paris Masters sits at 0.93 - slower than the tour average - so an indoor title can be won on a grass-speed court or a mud-speed one.

Source ↗

The indoor calendar is shrinking: Metz lost its ATP 250 licence from 2026 and became a Challenger 125, which means fewer roof matches every year and a thinner sample behind any 'indoor specialist' claim.

Source ↗

The two best roof players never met under one this month: Sinner is 0-0 indoors in 2026 because of his knee, and Auger-Aliassime is in Brussels defending a title he won there in 2025.

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Cobolli is the Race's most overrated player and also winless indoors in 2026 at 0-3, with a career indoor record of 11-16 (40.7%) - the points table and the roof agree with each other about him, for opposite reasons.

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🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 3 notes

The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Luciano Darderi

    20th in the Turin race, 62nd in hard-court Elo - the biggest raw mismatch of 2026, built on clay points (his clay Elo is 24th).

  2. 2
    Joao Fonseca

    Elo's favorite underdog: 10th on hard courts but 40th in the race - 1,200 points do not buy what a 1,933 Elo says.

  3. 3
    Flavio Cobolli

    Fifth in the actual race to Turin yet 34th in hard-court Elo - the only man inside the Turin cut with a 25-plus-place divergence.

  4. 4
    Arthur Gea

    The algorithm rates the 21-year-old Frenchman as the 22nd-best hard-court player in the world; the race still has him at 42.

  5. 5
    Stefanos Tsitsipas

    A former Elo darling (career peak 2,145) sitting 31st in the race but still 21st on hard courts.

  6. 6
    Novak Djokovic

    Race 11th, hard-court Elo 4th - at 39 the most selective schedule in the top 25, and Elo still refuses to age him.

  7. 7
    Casper Ruud

    Race points built on clay; on hard courts Elo trusts him more than the race does - 16th vs 23rd.

  8. 8
    Frances Tiafoe

    Seventh in the race - ahead of Medvedev - but hard-court Elo puts him only 14th.

  9. 9
    Taylor Fritz

    Race 13th, hard-court Elo 20th - the American's consistency outruns what Elo thinks of his level.

  10. 10
    Andrey Rublev

    Race 21st, hard-court Elo 28th - volume without signature wins, exactly the profile Elo deflates.

What Kimi noticed

Sinner leads hard-court Elo (2,234.3, No. 1) but a season-ending injury has frozen his race at 7,950 - 1,200 points behind Zverev - the biggest 'what if' gap between the two systems in 2026.

Source ↗

Cobolli's 'Log diff' of 1.50 (ATP rank 6 vs Elo 27) is the largest disagreement between the ATP computer and Elo on the entire men's leaderboard - and he is currently holding down a Turin qualifying spot.

Source ↗

Fonseca is the anti-Cobolli: top-10 in hard-court Elo yet 40th in the race with 1,200 points - the clearest case of a player rated far better than his points.

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🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Indoor career 71.5% vs outdoor hard 57.7% — a 13.8-point gain, and his indoor serve is a different weapon.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Novak Djokovic

    94.7% indoors in 2022–25 against 82.9% on outdoor hard — an 11.8-point gap, but only 19 indoor matches.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Tommy Paul

    80% indoors in 2024, 14.5 points above his outdoor-hard baseline — the roof turns a solid hard-courter into a title threat.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Karen Khachanov

    82.4% indoors in 2024 over 17 matches — the biggest indoor sample on the ATP’s 2024 leaderboard after Sinner.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Jannik Sinner

    13–0 indoors in 2024 — 14.7 points above his outdoor-hard rate, but the sample is only 13 matches.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Alexander Zverev

    78.6% indoors in 2024 vs 69.8% outdoor hard — an 8.8-point one-season gain, not a career-long indoor specialty.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Roberto Bautista Agut

    75% indoors in 2024 on 12 matches — a small-sample specialist line that still stands out.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Ugo Humbert

    Outdoor hard 55.7% is ordinary; the flat lefty’s low-bounce game is built for the roof.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Hubert Hurkacz

    Montpellier 1.43 and Dallas 1.42 on the surface-speed scale — fast indoor courts turn his serve into a shortcut.

  10. 10
    Daniil Medvedev

    A reality-check entry: career indoor 68.0% is 7.9 points lower than his outdoor hard rate, so the roof reputation runs ahead of the numbers.

    Source ↗

What DeepSeek noticed

Indoor hard is not automatically easier for favourites: tour-wide, favourites won 63.5% indoors vs 64.3% on outdoor hard in 2022–25, so the gain is player-specific, not surface-wide.

Source ↗

Auger-Aliassime’s indoor edge is not just aces: his unreturned-serve rate rises from 32.8% outdoors to 35.7% indoors, and his <=3-shot service wins rise from 43.4% to 47.7%.

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Sinner is the best indoor hard-courter by peak form — 13–0 in 2024 — but his career indoor rate (81.3%) is actually below his outdoor hard rate (85.3%), which is why “best indoors” and “gains most indoors” are different questions.

Source ↗

Medvedev’s indoor reputation is not supported by his career split: 68.0% indoors vs 75.9% on outdoor hard over 2022–25.

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🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Jannik Sinner (2026 season)

    Race #2 but Elo says he's the #1 hard-court force — the gap is a story of one skipped Masters

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    Carlos Alcaraz (2026 season)

    Race #1 and Elo agrees — but only because he played nearly everything; the cushion is thin

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    Taylor Fritz (2026 season)

    Race #8 but Elo says top-5 caliber — a 250-hoarding strategy that Elo punishes less than Race does

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    Alexander Zverev (2026 season)

    Race #5 but Elo says he's top-3 — injury gaps hurt the Race more than his true level

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    Daniil Medvedev (2026 season)

    Race #6 but Elo says #4 — defending Almaty crown this week is the kind of 250 win that lifts Race without proving peak form

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    Ben Shelton (2026 season)

    Race #12 but Elo whispers top-8 — big-serve hard-court wins add Race points but Elo sees volatility

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    Andrey Rublev (2026 season)

    Race #9 but Elo says he's a top-7 player — consistency on 500s hides in Race, shines in Elo

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    Hubert Hurkacz (2026 season)

    Race #11 but Elo says top-9 — a serve-bot who wins 250s in bunches but struggles vs top-10 in Elo math

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    Stefanos Tsitsipas (2026 season)

    Race #14 but Elo says top-10 — the Greek's big-match ceiling keeps him below his Elo in points

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    Holger Rune (2026 season)

    Race #15 but Elo says #11 — a young Dane whose dramatic wins inflate Elo but missed events deflate Race

    Source ↗

What Wenxin noticed

Fritz's Race position (#8) is inflated by accumulating ATP 250/500 points (Elo penalizes weak draws less than Race rewards deep runs) — a textbook case of 'points farming' vs. 'true strength'

Source ↗

Tsitsipas's 6-place gap between Race (#14) and Elo (~#8) is the largest among top-20 players, revealing how his big-match wins in 2026 are offset by early losses at lower-tier events

Source ↗