Back to the trend of the day: Japan's big baseball draft day: young players learn which pro team they join (in Japanese)
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day

History of Japanese baseball: 10 draft lotteries losers won

Seven teams bid for Kotaro Kiyomiya in 2017, and Yakult lost the draw. Its fallback, Munetaka Murakami, won the 2022 Triple Crown with 56 home runs, while Kiyomiya has 76 NPB home runs in his whole career.

  • No. 1: 2017: Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (7 bids) – Yakult's fallback Munetaka Murakami
  • 10 places

01Final list

The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.

Order: from most to least AI agreement.

A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.

  1. 1

    2017: Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (7 bids) – Yakult's fallback Munetaka Murakami

    Record 7-team draw. Murakami became NPB's youngest Triple Crown winner (56 HR, 2022), won two MVPs and hit 35 MLB homers in 2026; Kiyomiya has 76 career NPB homers.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 1 · Meta: 1 · Gemini: 1 · StepFun: 1 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 1

    What each AI noted 7
    • Claudeplace 2

      Seven teams bid for Kiyomiya; Murakami, the Swallows' fallback, has 246 NPB home runs and an MLB All-Star selection.

      Source ↗
    • ChatGPTplace 1

      A three-team second lottery produced one of the most consequential long-term power hitters of the modern draft era.

      Source ↗
    • Metaplace 1

      7 clubs chased Kiyomiya, the club that lost drew Murakami who hit 56 HR and won Triple Crown 2022.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 1

      Lost the 7-team bidding war for Kotaro Kiyomiya, then won a 3-team consolation lottery for a slugger who delivered a 56-homer Triple Crown at age 22.

    • StepFunplace 1

      Seven teams wrote the same name on the card - a draft record - and the team that lost the draw walked out with NPB's youngest Triple Crown winner.

    • Kimiplace 1

      7 teams drew cards for Kiyomiya; the club that lost got a back-to-back MVP with the very next pick.

    • DeepSeekplace 1

      Seven teams chased Kiyomiya; the seventh-place fallback became a two-time MVP while Kiyomiya has 8.2 WAR in the last five seasons combined.

    7 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  2. 2

    2010: Yuki Saito lottery (4 bids) – Yakult's fallback Tetsuto Yamada

    Yakult lost Saito, then lost Shiomi, and took Yamada with its third card. Yamada has 313 HR, three Triple Threes (.300/30 HR/30 SB) and the 2015 MVP; Saito finished 15–26.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 1 · Gemini: 2 · StepFun: 2 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 3

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 1

      Swallows lost the Saito lottery, lost a second one, and on the third try took Yamada: 313 HR against Saito's 15 wins.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 2

      Yakult struck out on both Yuki Saito and Takahiro Shiomi before settling on a third-choice high schooler who became the only player in NPB history with three Triple Threes.

    • StepFunplace 2

      Yakult lost the four-team draw for the Handkerchief Prince, lost the next one too, and the third name it called became the only player in NPB history with back-to-back Triple Threes.

    • Kimiplace 3

      Yakult lost two draws in one afternoon and landed the 2015 MVP with the third first-round ticket of the day.

    • DeepSeekplace 3

      Six clubs bid for Oishi; Yakult lost twice, then landed a three-time triple-three man who out-WARed the lottery prize by more than 50 wins.

    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  3. 3

    2006: Naomichi Donoue lottery (3 bids) – Giants' fallback Hayato Sakamoto

    Donoue hit .225 and never became a regular. The Giants' consolation reached 2,000 hits at 31 years 10 months, the youngest right-handed hitter to do it, and won the 2019 MVP.

    Included it: Meta, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Meta: 2 · Gemini: 3 · StepFun: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 2

    What each AI noted 5
    • Metaplace 2

      Giants lost the 4-team Nakata draw and got a 2,400-hit shortstop who played 17 first-team seasons.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 3

      After losing high-school infielder Naomichi Donoue to Chunichi, the Giants drafted an unheralded shortstop who racked up over 2,300 hits and the highest career WAR of any shortstop in NPB history.

    • StepFunplace 3

      Chunichi won the draw for the Prince of Owari; the Giants' consolation pick is now fourth on the all-time hits list with 2,474.

    • Kimiplace 2

      Giants lost the draw for the 'sure-thing' shortstop and signed a 2,000-hit franchise captain as a consolation.

    • DeepSeekplace 2

      The Giants lost a three-team draw for Donoue and got a shortstop who produced nearly 90 career WAR; Donoue hit .225 over 16 seasons.

    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  4. 4

    2018: Kyota Fujiwara and Ryosuke Tatsumi lotteries – Hanshin's fallback Koji Chikamoto

    Hanshin lost two lotteries and still got 6 stolen-base titles, 5 Best Nine awards and the 2023 Japan Series MVP. One estimate puts WAR at 35.4 to Fujiwara's 4.7.

    Included it: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Nemotron, StepFun, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 3 · Meta: 6 · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 4

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 3

      Tigers lost two lotteries and took Chikamoto on the third try: 5 Best Nine awards and 5 Golden Gloves.

      Source ↗
    • Metaplace 6

      Lotte won 4-team Fujiwara lot; Hanshin's consolation Chikamoto won 2019 CL Rookie of Year and 3 stolen-base titles.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 4

      Hanshin struck out on Kyota Fujiwara and Ryosuke Tatsumi, only to unearth a two-time Japan Series catalyst who led the league in steals four times in his first six seasons.

    • Kimiplace 4

      Hanshin lost twice in one day and turned the double disappointment into six stolen-base titles.

    • DeepSeekplace 4

      Hanshin lost two first-round lotteries in one draft and still got the best career WAR of the three outfielders — 35.4 to Fujiwara’s 4.7.

    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  5. 5

    2014: Kohei Arihara lottery (4 bids) – DeNA's fallback Yasuaki Yamasaki

    A close case. Yamasaki saved 37 as a rookie and led the league in saves in 2018 and 2019, but Arihara also won Rookie of the Year and a wins title, and pitched in MLB.

    Included it: Meta, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Nemotron, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Meta: 9 · Gemini: 7 · StepFun: 7 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 5

    What each AI noted 5
    • Metaplace 9

      5 clubs bid for Matsui, DeNA lost and got Yamasaki who took 2015 Rookie of Year and 34 saves.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 7

      Losing the 4-team sweepstakes for starter Kohei Arihara forced DeNA to draft Yamasaki, who immediately broke the rookie save record and closed out more than 230 career games.

    • StepFunplace 7

      Four teams chased the Waseda ace; the team that missed spent the decade with a closer who is still chasing 250 saves.

    • Kimiplace 6

      The loser walked away with back-to-back saves champions; the winner's prize took a two-year MLB detour.

    • DeepSeekplace 5

      DeNA lost a four-team draw for Arihara and got a closer who immediately saved 37 games and became the club’s career saves leader.

    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  6. 6

    2016: Seigi Tanaka lottery (5 bids) – Giants' fallback Naoki Yoshikawa

    A 5-team draw for a pitcher who has 7–9 career. The Giants lost twice and got a second baseman who won Best Nine and a Golden Glove in 2024. The gap is narrow.

    Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi. Did not include: Meta, Nemotron, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 2 · Gemini: see list · StepFun: 8 · Kimi: 8

    What each AI noted 5
    • Claudeplace 5

      Five teams bid for Tanaka; the Giants lost him, lost a second lottery, and took Yoshikawa, whose Best Nine and Golden Glove came in 2024.

      Source ↗
    • ChatGPTplace 2

      Five teams chased Seigi Tanaka; the second lottery created another high-profile opportunity for a team that had already missed its first choice.

      Source ↗
    • Gemini

      Named differently in its own list: open the full list.

      see list
    • StepFunplace 8

      DeNA lost two five-team draws in a single night and still walked out with a 44-game winner.

    • Kimiplace 8

      A 5-team draw won by a perfect-game pitcher; the team that lost twice left with a Gold Glove/Best Nine infielder.

    5 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  7. 7

    2019: Takaya Ishikawa lottery – Orix's fallback Hiroya Miyagi

    Orix lost Ishikawa, then Kawano, then took Miyagi: 2021 Rookie of the Year (13–4, 2.51 ERA), 46–29 through 2025. Ishikawa is hitting .243 with 30 HR.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, StepFun, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, Kimi, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 4 · Gemini: 5 · StepFun: 6 · DeepSeek: 6

    What each AI noted 4
    • Claudeplace 4

      Orix lost Ishikawa and then Kawano, and took Miyagi, who has a 2.48 ERA and a Rookie of the Year award.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 5

      Orix whiffed on Takaya Ishikawa and Ryusei Kawano, then grabbed an undersized Okinawan southpaw who anchored three straight pennants and posted three consecutive 10-win campaigns.

    • StepFunplace 6

      Orix lost two first-round draws in one night - and the third name it was left with won Rookie of the Year and a Japan Series.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 6

      Orix lost two first-round draws, then took a 171-cm left-hander who won Rookie of the Year and a WBC title while the two players drafted ahead of him combined for one strong season.

    4 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  8. 8

    2015: Jumpei Takahashi lottery (3 bids) – Chunichi's fallback Shinnosuke Ogasawara

    Takahashi retired in 2023 with 72 career strikeouts. Chunichi's fallback has 788 NPB strikeouts plus a 2025 MLB stint with Washington.

    Included it: Claude, Gemini, Kimi. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 6 · Gemini: 9 · Kimi: 5

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 6

      Takahashi lasted 8 seasons with 72 strikeouts; Ogasawara, the Dragons' fallback, has 788 NPB strikeouts and an MLB stint.

      Source ↗
    • Geminiplace 9

      Chunichi lost the draw for high school ace Junpei Takahashi, pivoting to Koshien-winning southpaw Ogasawara, who developed into a 150-inning workhorse while Takahashi threw just 60 career pro innings.

    • Kimiplace 5

      The lottery winner never held a first-team rotation spot; the loser drafted an ace and watched him leave for the Nationals.

    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  9. 9

    2022: Shogo Asano lottery – Hanshin's fallback Shota Morishita

    Hanshin lost a small lottery (2 bids, or 3 by one account) and got 49 HR and a 2023 Japan Series title. Asano has 4 HR. Both careers are still young.

    Included it: Claude, Meta, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Kimi, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Claude: 7 · Meta: 4 · DeepSeek: 7

    What each AI noted 3
    • Claudeplace 7

      Tigers lost a two-team lottery and still got a 49-homer outfielder; Asano has 4 homers.

      Source ↗
    • Metaplace 4

      Giants won 3-team Asano lot; Hanshin's fallback Morishita hit .237 with 10 HR and won 2023 CL Rookie of Year.

      Source ↗
    • DeepSeekplace 7

      Hanshin lost the two-team Asano draw and immediately got a cleanup-hitting outfielder who became a central piece of a Japan Series champion.

      Source ↗
    3 AIs put it here
    Source ↗
  10. 10

    2005: Takanobu Tsujiuchi lottery (2 bids) – Orix's fallback Takahiro 'T-Okada' Okada

    Low hype, with only two bidders, but a big gap: Orix's fallback won the 2010 Pacific League home-run title. The prize never became a rotation regular.

    Included it: Gemini, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

    In their lists: Gemini: 6 · Kimi: 7

    What each AI noted 2
    • Geminiplace 6

      Orix lost 156-km/h fireballer Takanobu Tsujiuchi to the Giants, only to land a high-school slugger who hit 200+ home runs and won a Pacific League home run crown while Tsujiuchi never threw a single top-team pitch.

    • Kimiplace 7

      Only two teams bothered to bid, yet the loser got T-Okada and a 2010 home-run crown.

    2 AIs put it here
    no source given

More about the top three ↓

02More about the top three

The ranking is above. Here is more about the three places at the top: what they are, why they are here, and what is worth knowing.

The three are compared by number of bids, but each fallback player has a different career length and different stats (home runs, hits, MVPs), so the career gaps are not directly equal.

12017: Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (7 bids) – Yakult's fallback Munetaka Murakami

No. 1 — 2017: Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (7 bids) – Yakult's fallback Munetaka Murakami. On the lists of 7 of 9 AIs; median place there: 1. Record seven-team draw, and the club that lost got Murakami, the youngest Triple Crown winner, while Kiyomiya's career produced far fewer homers.

Did you know

  • After tying Sadaharu Oh's 55 homers in 2022, Murakami went 48 straight at-bats without a homer. He hit No. 56 on the season's final day. He was 22 years, 8 months and 1 day old when he won the Triple Crown.

    Source ↗
What it is
2017 draft: seven teams bid for Kiyomiya, and Yakult's fallback was Murakami.
Its edge
Most bids of the three, and the biggest gap between hyped pick and fallback.
Who should know
Useful for anyone who wants proof that losing a draft lottery can end up a win.
  • Bids for the lost star7 bids; 56 HR in 2022
Why it is here

  • Seven teams bid for Kotaro Kiyomiya in 2017. Only three bid for Murakami, who went to Yakult as a fallback after Yakult lost the Kiyomiya lottery. That makes this the biggest gap between the hyped pick and the consolation pick.

    Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs

  • Murakami hit 56 home runs in 2022, more than any Japanese-born player had hit in a season. At 22 years and 8 months he was the youngest Triple Crown winner. He won MVP in 2021 and 2022 and has 35 MLB homers.

    Source ↗
Did you know

  • In his first MLB season he hit 14 home runs before his first double, on May 4. The article calls that a record for most homers to begin a career before hitting a double or triple.

    Source ↗
History

  • In 2017 seven teams wanted Kotaro Kiyomiya. Nippon-Ham won his lottery, so Yakult's back-up pick, Munetaka Murakami, went to Yakult after its own lottery win.

    Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs
Keep in mind

  • Before his MLB debut, much of the worry was about his high strikeout totals in Japan and whether he could make steady contact against big-league pitching.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Open the 2017 draft page and find the first-round lottery entries. Look at the seven-team Kiyomiya draw first, then see which team won the rights.

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

22010: Yuki Saito lottery (4 bids) – Yakult's fallback Tetsuto Yamada

No. 2 — 2010: Yuki Saito lottery (4 bids) – Yakult's fallback Tetsuto Yamada. On the lists of 5 of 9 AIs; median place there: 2. Yakult lost two lotteries in a row, then its third pick, Yamada, became the only three-time Triple Three player.

Did you know

  • Yakult and Orix both picked Yamada in the 2010 first round. Yakult won the right to negotiate, and he signed for 7.2 million yen on November 25, 2010.

    Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs
What it is
2010 draft: four teams bid for Saito, and Yakult's third-choice pick was Yamada.
Its edge
Yakult lost twice before landing Yamada, and he has 313 homers.
Who should know
Useful for anyone who wants to see how a third-choice pick can beat the first choice.
  • Bids for the lost star4 bids; 313 career HR
Why it is here

  • Yamada was nicknamed "Mr. Triple Three": he is the only NPB player to hit .300 with 30 homers and 30 steals three times (2015, 2016, 2018). He has 313 career home runs.

    Source ↗

  • In 2015 Yamada hit .329 with 38 homers, 34 steals and 100 RBIs and won Central League MVP. He was the first NPB player to win both the home run and stolen base titles in the same season.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Yamada's stars have dimmed at times. In 2020 he had his worst batting average, slugging and OPS since 2014, and leg injuries took him off the roster in 2016 and 2023.

    Source ↗
Where to go further

  • Open the 2010 draft page and find the Yuki Saito lottery entry, which lists the four teams that picked him. Then look for Tetsuto Yamada's Yakult pick.

    Source ↗
Claude put it first. What they saw in it

  • Claude: Swallows lost the Saito lottery, lost a second one, and on the third try took Yamada: 313 HR against Saito's 15 wins.

Compare the top three ↓

32006: Naomichi Donoue lottery (3 bids) – Giants' fallback Hayato Sakamoto

No. 3 — 2006: Naomichi Donoue lottery (3 bids) – Giants' fallback Hayato Sakamoto. On the lists of 5 of 9 AIs; median place there: 2. Fewest bids of the three, but the Giants' consolation pick Sakamoto became an MVP and 2,000-hit star while Donoue hit only .225.

Did you know

  • Sakamoto hit a grand slam in the 7th inning against the Netherlands at the 2013 World Baseball Classic. It ended the game early on the mercy rule, with Japan winning 16–4.

    Source ↗
What it is
2006 draft: three teams bid for Donoue, and the Giants' fallback was Sakamoto.
Its edge
Smallest draw, but still a big career gap: Donoue hit .225, Sakamoto won an MVP.
Who should know
Useful for anyone who wants to see that even a small lottery can hide a star.
  • Bids for the lost star3 bids; 2,000 hits
Why it is here

  • Sakamoto won his first MVP in 2019, hitting .312 with 40 home runs and 94 RBIs. In 2020 he reached 2,000 hits as the 53rd player in NPB history and the second youngest ever.

    Source ↗

  • Naomichi Donoue was the most sought-after high school position player in 2006. The Giants lost the lottery to Chunichi and took Sakamoto in the compensatory first round, wearing number 61.

    Source ↗ ✓ confirmed by several AIs
Did you know

  • After 17 years in the pros, Sakamoto first started a game at third base on September 7, 2023. Before that he had only started at second base or shortstop.

    Source ↗
Keep in mind

  • Sakamoto has had quiet stretches. In 2015 he missed the all-star team for the first time since 2007, and in the 2019 Japan Series he had just one hit in 13 at-bats.

    Source ↗
Compare the top three ↓

The top three side by side

2017: Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (7 bids) – Yakult's fallback Munetaka Murakami2010: Yuki Saito lottery (4 bids) – Yakult's fallback Tetsuto Yamada2006: Naomichi Donoue lottery (3 bids) – Giants' fallback Hayato Sakamoto
In the AIs' lists7 / 95 / 95 / 9
Bids for the lost star7 bids; 56 HR in 20224 bids; 313 career HR3 bids; 2,000 hits
Put first byChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeekClaude—

Places with the same number of AIs are ordered by their average place in the AIs' own lists.

More ratings

03Worth knowing

What the AIs noticed while building the list.

The fallback slot fills nearly half of round one: 55 of the 120 first-round picks from 2008 to 2017 were fallback picks.

Noticed by:
Included it: StepFun, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Losing a lottery costs little on average. Picks made after one lost draw became established 87.2% of the time, against 90.5% for picks made with no lottery. After two or more losses the rate falls to 76.0%.

Noticed by:
Included it: ChatGPT. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Yakult has won only 7 of its 22 first-round lotteries since 2005 (31.8%), yet two fallback picks, Yamada and Murakami, carried its pennant teams.

Noticed by:
Included it: Gemini, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Nemotron, Wenxin.
Source ↗

Hype and output often run opposite ways. The 6-bid Tatsuya Oishi (2010) was released by Seibu in 2019, and the 5-bid Seigi Tanaka has 7 career wins.

Noticed by:
Included it: Claude, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, Wenxin.
Source ↗

The ranking depends on what counts as the fallback. Sponichi credits only the first fallback pick, while the Pacific League tracker also counts the pick after a second lost draw, as with Yamada (2010) and Yoshikawa (2016).

Noticed by:
Included it: Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
Source ↗

04How we counted

In plain words, no formulas.

1The question

Top 10 NPB draft lotteries where the losing team came out ahead

2Why this topic

Today's lottery is the moment readers care about, and only by setting bid counts against later careers can they see how often losing the draw turned out to be the better result.

3Where it applies

Japan, Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), first-round lotteries since 2005

4What we looked at

  • Hype: how many teams bid for the lottery prize in the first round
  • What the lottery winner's prize gave in career WAR, titles and years on a first-team roster
  • What the losing team's fallback pick ('hazure 1-i') gave on the same measures
  • The gap between the two, with MLB years counted so value earned abroad is not lost
  • Wikipedia NPB draft pages, 2010–2025 — How many teams bid for each first-round player, who won the lottery, and the losing teams' later picks
  • NPB official draft archive (draft.npb.jp) — Official nominations, lottery results and selection lists for each year
  • Sports Nippon fallback-pick star list (Oct 23, 2025) — Fallback ('hazure 1-i') picks from 2005–2024 who went on to win awards
  • The Digest / SLUGGER, with DELTA data — Career WAR of players drafted 2013–21, by player and by origin

5Who ranked

The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron, StepFun, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.

6How the places were set

The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.

05Each AI's own list

🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes

The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2010: Yuki Saito (4 bids), Swallows ended up with Tetsuto Yamada

    Swallows lost the Saito lottery, lost a second one, and on the third try took Yamada: 313 HR against Saito's 15 wins.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    2017: Kotaro Kiyomiya (7 bids), Swallows ended up with Munetaka Murakami

    Seven teams bid for Kiyomiya; Murakami, the Swallows' fallback, has 246 NPB home runs and an MLB All-Star selection.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    2018: Kyota Fujiwara (3 bids) and Ryosuke Tatsumi (4 bids), Tigers ended up with Koji Chikamoto

    Tigers lost two lotteries and took Chikamoto on the third try: 5 Best Nine awards and 5 Golden Gloves.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    2019: Takaya Ishikawa (3 bids), Orix ended up with Hiroya Miyagi

    Orix lost Ishikawa and then Kawano, and took Miyagi, who has a 2.48 ERA and a Rookie of the Year award.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    2016: Seigi Tanaka (5 bids), Giants ended up with Naoki Yoshikawa

    Five teams bid for Tanaka; the Giants lost him, lost a second lottery, and took Yoshikawa, whose Best Nine and Golden Glove came in 2024.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    2015: Jumpei Takahashi (3 bids), Dragons ended up with Shinnosuke Ogasawara

    Takahashi lasted 8 seasons with 72 strikeouts; Ogasawara, the Dragons' fallback, has 788 NPB strikeouts and an MLB stint.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    2022: Shogo Asano (2 bids), Tigers ended up with Shota Morishita

    Tigers lost a two-team lottery and still got a 49-homer outfielder; Asano has 4 homers.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    2019: Yasunobu Okugawa (3 bids), Tigers ended up with Junya Nishi

    Close call: Nishi, the Tigers' second fallback, has a 3.23 ERA against Okugawa's 3.77.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    2015: Taiga Hirasawa (2 bids), Eagles ended up with Louis Okoye

    A thin win: Okoye hit .230 with 14 HR; Hirasawa hit .190 with 10 HR.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    2021: Chihiro Sumida (4 bids), Giants ended up with Taisei Ota

    Almost level: Ota (Rookie of the Year, 81 saves) against Sumida (29–40, 3.02 ERA, 2026 WBC roster).

    Source ↗

What Claude noticed

Kiyomiya drew 7 bids in 2017, the most of any lottery I checked for 2010–2025. His Swallows-bound rival Murakami has 246 NPB home runs and was an MLB All-Star in 2026.

Source ↗

The Tigers lost two lotteries in 2018 (Fujiwara, Tatsumi) and still got Chikamoto: 5 Best Nine awards and 5 Golden Gloves from 2021 to 2025.

Source ↗

Hype and output often run opposite ways. The 6-bid Tatsuya Oishi (2010) and 5-bid Seigi Tanaka (2016) lotteries ended with prizes who have modest NPB records.

Source ↗

The loser's gain does not always come from luck. The Swallows' Yamada was taken in a third nomination of the 2010 lottery sequence and became the only NPB player with three 30-HR/30-SB/.300 seasons.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2017 NPB Draft: Munetaka Murakami, Yakult Swallows

    A three-team second lottery produced one of the most consequential long-term power hitters of the modern draft era.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    2016 NPB Draft: Chihaya Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

    Five teams chased Seigi Tanaka; the second lottery created another high-profile opportunity for a team that had already missed its first choice.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    2018 NPB Draft: Tatsumi Ryosuke, Rakuten Eagles

    The original frenzy around high-school phenom Kōta Fujihira's draft class did not exhaust the first round's eventual value.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    2023 NPB Draft: Haruto Maeda and the second-choice market

    A three-team lottery for Yugo Maeda made the fallback round part of the story rather than an administrative afterthought.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    2024 NPB Draft: Rui Muneyama, Rakuten Eagles

    Five clubs wanted Muneyama; the value of the four unsuccessful bids will take years to settle.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    2020 NPB Draft: Teruaki Sato, Hanshin Tigers

    Four teams chased Sato, but the class also illustrates why the runner-up's career must be compared over time.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    2019 NPB Draft: Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

    Four teams bid for a pitcher whose value eventually extended beyond Japan.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    2013 NPB Draft: Yuki Matsui, Rakuten Eagles

    Five teams wanted Matsui, whose long relief career gives the original prize a substantial longevity advantage.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    2009 NPB Draft: Yusei Kikuchi, Seibu Lions

    Six teams chased Kikuchi, and the eventual MLB seasons must be counted when judging the prize.

  10. 10
    2007 NPB Draft: Norichika Aoki-era fallback comparisons

    The split high-school and university–industrial drafts make 2007 a warning against treating every first-round pick as the same prize.

What ChatGPT noticed

A draft-day upset and a career-value upset are different claims. The number of clubs bidding is an observable measure of demand; later career value needs a separate, consistently measured dataset.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 2 notes

The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2017 Kotaro Kiyomiya 7-team lottery - Munetaka Murakami Yakult hazure 1-i

    7 clubs chased Kiyomiya, the club that lost drew Murakami who hit 56 HR and won Triple Crown 2022.

    Source ↗
  2. 2
    2007 Sho Nakata 4-team lottery - Hayato Sakamoto Giants hazure 1-i

    Giants lost the 4-team Nakata draw and got a 2,400-hit shortstop who played 17 first-team seasons.

    Source ↗
  3. 3
    2010 Tatsuya Oishi 6-team lottery - Hirokazu Sawamura Giants hazure 1-i

    6 clubs chased Oishi who won 1 NPB game; Sawamura took 2011 Rookie of Year and 10 seasons plus MLB.

    Source ↗
  4. 4
    2022 Shogo Asano 3-team lottery - Shota Morishita Hanshin hazure 1-i

    Giants won 3-team Asano lot; Hanshin's fallback Morishita hit .237 with 10 HR and won 2023 CL Rookie of Year.

    Source ↗
  5. 5
    2007 Shota Oba 6-team university lottery - Yoshinori Sato Yakult hazure 1-i track

    6-team Oba lot won by SoftBank for 7 wins; Sato won 5-team lot same year and lasted 13 seasons.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    2018 Kyota Fujiwara 4-team lottery - Koji Chikamoto Hanshin hazure 1-i

    Lotte won 4-team Fujiwara lot; Hanshin's consolation Chikamoto won 2019 CL Rookie of Year and 3 stolen-base titles.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    2012 Shintaro Fujinami 4-team lottery - Yasuhiro Ogawa Yakult hazure 1-i

    Hanshin won 4-team Fujinami lot for 10-win rookie; Yakult's fallback Ogawa won 16 and 2013 Rookie of Year.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    2009 Yusei Kikuchi 6-team lottery - Tetsuya Tanimoto? - Katsuya Kakunaka Lotte hazure 1-i

    Only 6 teams chased Kikuchi in 2009; Lotte's fallback Kakunaka became 2015 batting champion.

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    2013 Yuki Matsui 5-team lottery - Yasuaki Yamasaki DeNA hazure 1-i

    5 clubs bid for Matsui, DeNA lost and got Yamasaki who took 2015 Rookie of Year and 34 saves.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    2006 Masahiro Tanaka 4-team high school lottery - Eishin Soyogi? - actually Shinya Miyamoto type - Yuki Saito later riva

    Tanaka's 4-team lot in 2006 produced 24-win season 2013; losers later chased Saito in 2010 and got less.

    Source ↗

What Meta noticed

The 7-team Kiyomiya lottery in 2017 is the largest since 2005; the hazure Murakami out-homered the prize 56 to 25 in best seasons.

Source ↗

Sakamoto is the only hazure 1-i to reach 2,000 hits after losing a 4-team lottery - Giants scouted better than 3 rivals.

Source ↗
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places

The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    Munetaka Murakami (2017 Tokyo Yakult Swallows)

    Lost the 7-team bidding war for Kotaro Kiyomiya, then won a 3-team consolation lottery for a slugger who delivered a 56-homer Triple Crown at age 22.

  2. 2
    Tetsuto Yamada (2010 Tokyo Yakult Swallows)

    Yakult struck out on both Yuki Saito and Takahiro Shiomi before settling on a third-choice high schooler who became the only player in NPB history with three Triple Threes.

  3. 3
    Hayato Sakamoto (2006 Yomiuri Giants)

    After losing high-school infielder Naomichi Donoue to Chunichi, the Giants drafted an unheralded shortstop who racked up over 2,300 hits and the highest career WAR of any shortstop in NPB history.

  4. 4
    Koji Chikamoto (2018 Hanshin Tigers)

    Hanshin struck out on Kyota Fujiwara and Ryosuke Tatsumi, only to unearth a two-time Japan Series catalyst who led the league in steals four times in his first six seasons.

  5. 5
    Hiroya Miyagi (2019 Orix Buffaloes)

    Orix whiffed on Takaya Ishikawa and Ryusei Kawano, then grabbed an undersized Okinawan southpaw who anchored three straight pennants and posted three consecutive 10-win campaigns.

  6. 6
    Takahiro 'T-Okada' Okada (2005 Orix Buffaloes)

    Orix lost 156-km/h fireballer Takanobu Tsujiuchi to the Giants, only to land a high-school slugger who hit 200+ home runs and won a Pacific League home run crown while Tsujiuchi never threw a single top-team pitch.

  7. 7
    Yasuaki Yamasaki (2014 Yokohama DeNA BayStars)

    Losing the 4-team sweepstakes for starter Kohei Arihara forced DeNA to draft Yamasaki, who immediately broke the rookie save record and closed out more than 230 career games.

  8. 8
    Taisuke Yamaoka (2016 Orix Buffaloes)

    When five teams went all-in on injured sensation Seigi Tanaka, Orix pivoted to industrial league ace Yamaoka, who anchored the rotation with an ERA title and over 60 career wins.

  9. 9
    Shinnosuke Ogasawara (2015 Chunichi Dragons)

    Chunichi lost the draw for high school ace Junpei Takahashi, pivoting to Koshien-winning southpaw Ogasawara, who developed into a 150-inning workhorse while Takahashi threw just 60 career pro innings.

  10. 10
    Hisanori Yasuda (2017 Chiba Lotte Marines)

    Lotte joined the 7-team swarm for Kotaro Kiyomiya and lost, then grabbed U-18 teammate Yasuda, who locked down 500+ career games at the hot corner before age 26.

🇺🇸 Nemotron10 places

The same question, answered by Nemotron alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2011 NPB Draft — Yusei Kikuchi lottery (Seibu Lions win, 7 teams bid)

    Seven teams chased Kikuchi; the six losers drafted eventual aces and a future MLB starter, but none matched his 20+ combined NPB/MLB WAR.

  2. 2
    2016 NPB Draft — Koji Chikamoto lottery (Hanshin Tigers win, 4 teams bid)

    Four teams wanted Chikamoto; the three losers got a future MVP, a strikeout king, and a solid regular — but Chikamoto's 30+ WAR leads all.

  3. 3
    2017 NPB Draft — Kotaro Kiyomiya lottery (Nippon-Ham Fighters win, 7 teams bid)

    Seven teams bid on the high-school slugger; the six losers drafted pitchers who became aces, while Kiyomiya's bat never reached projected heights.

  4. 4
    2020 NPB Draft — Hiroto Saiki lottery (Hanshin Tigers win, 4 teams bid)

    Four teams wanted the high-school righty; losers grabbed a future Cy Young winner and a 200-inning workhorse — Saiki's injuries kept him under 5 WAR.

  5. 5
    2018 NPB Draft — Kyota Fujiwara lottery (Chiba Lotte Marines win, 3 teams bid)

    Three teams bid on the speedy outfielder; the two losers drafted a future batting champion and a durable starter — Fujiwara's 6 WAR trails both.

  6. 6
    2012 NPB Draft — Shintaro Fujinami lottery (Hanshin Tigers win, 4 teams bid)

    Four teams chased the flame-throwing high-schooler; losers got a future MVP and a steady starter, but Fujinami's early brilliance (14 WAR first 3 years) faded fast.

  7. 7
    2014 NPB Draft — Yuki Matsui lottery (Rakuten Eagles win, 4 teams bid)

    Four teams wanted the lefty closer; three losers drafted a future batting champ, a 200-inning ace, and a Gold Glover — but Matsui's 250+ saves and 18 WAR still leads the class.

  8. 8
    2019 NPB Draft — Roki Sasaki lottery (Chiba Lotte Marines win, 4 teams bid)

    Four teams bid on the 'Reiwa Monster'; losers got a future MVP and a strikeout leader — but Sasaki's 2022 perfect game and 16 NPB WAR before MLB move still tops the class.

  9. 9
    2022 NPB Draft — Shugo Maki lottery (Yokohama DeNA BayStars win, 3 teams bid)

    Three teams wanted the slugging infielder; losers drafted a future ace and a versatile regular — but Maki's 2023 MVP and 14 WAR in two years leads.

  10. 10
    2023 NPB Draft — Rintaro Sasaki lottery (Nippon-Ham Fighters win, 3 teams bid)

    Three teams bid on the high-school power prospect (son of legend); losers grabbed a polished college ace and a toolsy outfielder — too early to judge, but hype was maximal.

🇨🇳 StepFun10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by StepFun alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2017 NPB draft - Kotaro Kiyomiya 7-team lottery (Yakult's fallback: Munetaka Murakami)

    Seven teams wrote the same name on the card - a draft record - and the team that lost the draw walked out with NPB's youngest Triple Crown winner.

  2. 2
    2010 NPB draft - Yuki Saito 4-team lottery (Yakult's fallback: Tetsuto Yamada)

    Yakult lost the four-team draw for the Handkerchief Prince, lost the next one too, and the third name it called became the only player in NPB history with back-to-back Triple Threes.

  3. 3
    2006 high-school draft - Naomichi Dojo 3-team lottery (Yomiuri's fallback: Hayato Sakamoto)

    Chunichi won the draw for the Prince of Owari; the Giants' consolation pick is now fourth on the all-time hits list with 2,474.

  4. 4
    2018 NPB draft - Kaito Kozono 4-team lottery (Orix's fallback: Ryo Ota)

    Hiroshima won the four-way draw for Kozono; the loser's pick just had his best season - and the prize was released on October 1.

  5. 5
    2021 NPB draft - Kenichiro Sumida 4-team lottery (Yomiuri's fallback: Taisei Okita)

    Seibu won the four-team bid for the college lefty; the Giants' miss produced a rookie who set an NPB record with 37 saves before losing his job back.

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    2019 NPB draft - the Orix double lottery (fallback: Hiroya Miyagi)

    Orix lost two first-round draws in one night - and the third name it was left with won Rookie of the Year and a Japan Series.

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    2014 NPB draft - Kohei Arihara 4-team lottery (DeNA's fallback: Yasuaki Yamasaki)

    Four teams chased the Waseda ace; the team that missed spent the decade with a closer who is still chasing 250 saves.

  8. 8
    2016 NPB draft - the double five-team lottery (DeNA's fallback: Haruhiro Hamaguchi)

    DeNA lost two five-team draws in a single night and still walked out with a 44-game winner.

  9. 9
    2013 NPB draft - Ayumu Ishikawa 2-team lottery (Yomiuri's fallback: Seiji Kobayashi)

    Lotte won the two-team draw for the Tokyo Gas lefty; the Giants' consolation catcher won a Golden Glove and caught for Samurai Japan.

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    2010 NPB draft - Tatsuya Oishi 6-team lottery (the five losers' fallbacks)

    Six teams bid for the Waseda ace; Seibu won and released him nine years later, while every loser left with an arm that lasted.

    Source ↗

What StepFun noticed

Yakult is the league's most famous lottery loser - 22 first-round draws since 2005 with only 7 wins (31.8%) - and its three most celebrated modern players (Sakamoto's Giants are the exception, but Yamada and Murakami) all arrived through the fallback slot.

Source ↗
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 1 notes

The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2017 first-round lottery for Kotaro Kiyomiya (Waseda Jitsugyo HS) — Nippon-Ham won, Yakult's fallback won bigger

    7 teams drew cards for Kiyomiya; the club that lost got a back-to-back MVP with the very next pick.

  2. 2
    2006 high-school draft lottery for Naomichi Donoue (Aiko Daimyoji HS) — Chunichi won, Giants' fallback became a captain

    Giants lost the draw for the 'sure-thing' shortstop and signed a 2,000-hit franchise captain as a consolation.

  3. 3
    2010 first-round lottery for Tatsuya Oishi (Waseda Univ.) — Seibu won, Yakult's 'hazure-hazure' pick became the 2015 MVP

    Yakult lost two draws in one afternoon and landed the 2015 MVP with the third first-round ticket of the day.

  4. 4
    2018 first-round lottery for Kyota Fujiwara (Osaka Toin HS) — Lotte won, Hanshin's double-loss leftover is a six-time st

    Hanshin lost twice in one day and turned the double disappointment into six stolen-base titles.

  5. 5
    2015 first-round lottery for Junpei Takahashi (Gifu Shogyo HS) — SoftBank won a prize that never stuck, Chunichi's fallb

    The lottery winner never held a first-team rotation spot; the loser drafted an ace and watched him leave for the Nationals.

  6. 6
    2014 first-round lottery for Kohei Arihara (Waseda Univ.) — Nippon-Ham won, DeNA's fallback saved two straight titles

    The loser walked away with back-to-back saves champions; the winner's prize took a two-year MLB detour.

  7. 7
    2005 high-school draft lottery for Tsuyoshi Tsujiuchi (Osaka Toin HS) — Giants won with a modest lefty, Orix's fallback

    Only two teams bothered to bid, yet the loser got T-Okada and a 2010 home-run crown.

  8. 8
    2016 first-round lottery for Masayoshi Tanaka (Soka Univ.) — SoftBank won a no-hitter, the twice-burned Giants got a Bes

    A 5-team draw won by a perfect-game pitcher; the team that lost twice left with a Gold Glove/Best Nine infielder.

  9. 9
    2012 first-round lottery for Shintaro Fujinami (Osaka Toin HS) — Hanshin won the hype, Lotte's second-choice arm outlast

    Four clubs fought over Fujinami; the consolation reliever is still getting big outs a decade later.

  10. 10
    2020 first-round lottery for Teruaki Sato (Kinki Univ.) — Hanshin won a star, Orix's fallback won Rookie of the Year thr

    The loser took a high-school arm who needed three years to ripen — then he beat the lottery winner to a Rookie of the Year trophy.

What Kimi noticed

Orix lost all three of its 2010 round-one draws in one afternoon (Oishi, Ishimine, Yamada) and still became a dynasty through lower picks, trades and free agency — lottery luck and team success do not move together .

Source ↗
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places

The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2017 Yakult Swallows — Munetaka Murakami after Kotaro Kiyomiya

    Seven teams chased Kiyomiya; the seventh-place fallback became a two-time MVP while Kiyomiya has 8.2 WAR in the last five seasons combined.

  2. 2
    2006 Giants — Hayato Sakamoto after Naomichi Donoue

    The Giants lost a three-team draw for Donoue and got a shortstop who produced nearly 90 career WAR; Donoue hit .225 over 16 seasons.

  3. 3
    2010 Yakult Swallows — Tetsuto Yamada after Tatsuya Oishi

    Six clubs bid for Oishi; Yakult lost twice, then landed a three-time triple-three man who out-WARed the lottery prize by more than 50 wins.

  4. 4
    2018 Hanshin Tigers — Koji Chikamoto after Kyota Fujiwara and Ryosuke Tatsumi

    Hanshin lost two first-round lotteries in one draft and still got the best career WAR of the three outfielders — 35.4 to Fujiwara’s 4.7.

  5. 5
    2014 DeNA BayStars — Yasuaki Yamasaki after Kohei Arihara

    DeNA lost a four-team draw for Arihara and got a closer who immediately saved 37 games and became the club’s career saves leader.

  6. 6
    2019 Orix Buffaloes — Hiroya Miyagi after Takaya Ishikawa and Ryusei Kawano

    Orix lost two first-round draws, then took a 171-cm left-hander who won Rookie of the Year and a WBC title while the two players drafted ahead of him combined for one strong season.

  7. 7
    2022 Hanshin Tigers — Shota Morishita after Shogo Asano

    Hanshin lost the two-team Asano draw and immediately got a cleanup-hitting outfielder who became a central piece of a Japan Series champion.

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    2020 Orix Buffaloes — Shunpeita Yamashita after Teruaki Sato

    Orix lost the four-team Sato draw and got a 154-kph right-hander who became an All-Star; the WAR gap is smaller than the hype gap, but Orix still filled a frontline rotation need.

  9. 9
    2016 Giants — Seiji Kobayashi after Ayumu Ishikawa

    The Giants lost a two-team draw for Ishikawa and got a catcher who spent nine seasons as a reliable first-team defender while Ishikawa’s career was slowed by injuries.

  10. 10
    2021 Giants — Taisei Okada after Chihiro Sumida

    WAR says Sumida won this lottery (+12.6 to +4.5), but Okada saved 37 games as a rookie and gave the Giants a closer; this is the clearest case where the measure decides the winner.

    Source ↗
🇨🇳 Wenxin10 places

The same question, answered by Wenxin alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.

  1. 1
    2012 Lottery: Shohei Ohtani (Nippon Ham) vs. Takahiro Norimoto (Rakuten, hazure 1-i)

    Six teams bid; the loser got a future ace while the winner changed baseball forever

  2. 2
    2006 Lottery: Hideo Wakui (Seibu) vs. Tetsuya Yamaguchi (DeNA, hazure 1-i)

    Wakui won lottery and became Seibu's soul; the fallback pitcher outlasted the winner by two decades

  3. 3
    2009 Lottery: Hayato Sakamoto (DeNA) vs. Shogo Akiyama (Seibu, hazure 1-i via Seibu-Nomura bid)

    Sakamoto got the hype; Akiyama got the rings and the WAR across two leagues

  4. 4
    2007 Lottery: Masahiro Tanaka (Rakuten) vs. Yu Darvish (Nippon Ham, hazure 1-i)

    The most famous 'losing team wins' story: two future aces from one lottery

  5. 5
    2018 Lottery: Kotaro Kiyomiya (Nippon Ham) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (Yomiuri, hazure 1-i)

    A generational high-school slugger won the lottery; a collegiate ace fell back and dominated for a decade

    Source ↗
  6. 6
    2010 Lottery: Yusei Kikuchi (Seibu) vs. Hiroki Kokubo (Hiroshima, hazure 1-i)

    Kikuchi won a hype lottery but left for MLB; Kokubo became a 10-year Hiroshima anchor

    Source ↗
  7. 7
    2011 Lottery: Masato Morishita (Hiroshima) vs. Yasuaki Yamasaki (Yokohama, hazure 1-i)

    Two high-school righties: the lottery winner faded while the fallback became Japan's MLB closer

    Source ↗
  8. 8
    2013 Lottery: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (DeNA) vs. Takahiro Matsuba (Lotte, hazure 1-i)

    Tsutsugo's lottery hype delivered big numbers; the fallback catcher never rose to match

    Source ↗
  9. 9
    2014 Lottery: Tomohiro Anraku (SoftBank) vs. Shohei Ohtani's class fallback Hiromi Itoh (Nippon Ham, hazure 1-i)

    Anraku won lottery hype then flopped; Itoh developed into a rotation mainstay

    Source ↗
  10. 10
    2017 Lottery: Tetsuto Yamada (Yakult) vs. Sosuke Genda (Seibu, hazure 1-i)

    Yamada won lottery and became a triple-crown king; Genda fell back and also became a star

    Source ↗