The title models split by method. Gato Mestre's xG model (11 Oct) had Flamengo 70.55% and Palmeiras 29.38%. Two results-based simulations dated 18 Oct put Palmeiras narrowly ahead: PlacarHub 52–48 and ValorFinal 51.7–48.3.
Back to the trend of the day: Flamengo can take first place in Brazil's league with a win (in Portuguese)
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Chance de título Brasileirão 2026: table vs xG, top 10
Palmeiras top the table on 66 points, but both shot models value their chances at only 47 to 49 points, and the last xG-based title model still made Flamengo a 70.55% favourite.
- No. 1: Palmeiras
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Palmeiras
First on 66 from 31 games, but its chances are worth only 49.4 xPts (Statz) or 47.4 (xGscore), the league's biggest surplus: +16.6 to +18.6.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Meta: 2 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · Kimi: 1 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 1
66 points against 49.4 expected: +16.6, the biggest cushion over the shot models in the league, and it comes from 31 games, one more than Flamengo.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
66 official points, but xGscore’s 47.2 xPts leaves an 18.8-point results-versus-chances gap.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 2
Leads table with 66 pts in 31 games but models see only 31.6% title chance and +7.4 over xG
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
The table leader, and the club whose 66 points sit furthest above the chance models: 18.6 above xGscore, 16.6 above Statz.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Holds first place with 66 points after Saturday's win, but chance models award them less than a third of the championship equity.
- Kimiplace 1
Top of the table and top of the luck index: +14.7 points above what their chances were worth — the model underdog wearing the leader's jersey.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
Top of the table on 66 points with a game more played, yet the models make Flamengo a near-70% favourite — the lead is thinner than the points say.
Source ↗
7 AIs put it here - 2
Flamengo
Second on points but first on both xPts tables (53.3, 54.1) and 70.55% in Gato Mestre. Two points-based simulations dated 18 Oct give it only about 48%.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 2 · Meta: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · Kimi: 3 · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 2
Top of the expected-points table at 53.3, with 64 points from 30 games. It is the one contender whose results and chances roughly agree, and it is still +10.7.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
xGscore has Flamengo 6.1 goals below xG, while OddsCalendar has it eight goals above xG: a striking feed disagreement.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 1
64 pts in 30 games before Bahia but 68.1% title favorite in UFMG and over 70% in Gato Mestre – a game in hand worth more than 2 points
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Two points back with a game in hand, and still first on both expected-points tables and on both title models.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Trails the official table by two points but leads every major predictive simulation with up to a 70.5% title probability.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 3
The only side both simulations crown favorite — 66-70% title chance — despite trailing Palmeiras, and with a game in hand.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 2
Second on 64 points with a game in hand and the league's best xG difference — the table says chase, the chance models say clear favourite.
7 AIs put it here - 3
Athletico-PR
Third on 53, but both xPts feeds put it 6 to 7 points above its chances, and its title chance is only 0.03–0.27%. Its xG ranges from 39.1 to 52.3 depending on the feed.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 7 · Meta: 4 · Grok: 8 · Gemini: 4 · Kimi: 4 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 4
Third in the table on 53 points yet only 0.13% to win the title, because the shot models say 46.0 is nearer its level.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 7
The 49-goal attack is +9.9 over xG on OddsCalendar, but xGscore’s finishing figure is only +4.0.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 4
53 pts in 31 games – third in points but 0.03% title chance shows xG models downgrade
- Grokplace 8
Third on 53 points, with a title price of 0.03% to 0.27% and an xPTS total almost level with the leader's.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
Occupies third spot in the official table despite ranking sixth in quality of open-play chances conceded.
- Kimiplace 4
The league's second-luckiest attack (+8.0 goals over xG) is holding up a 3rd place that both models call already over.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 6
Third on 53 points and top of the xG chart on 52.3, but scoring fewer goals than the chances say — a quiet underperformance at the top.
7 AIs put it here - 4
São Paulo
42 points and 36 goals from 43.5–45.8 xG. Two feeds say it is 7.5 to 9.8 goals short, and Folha/FotMob found the same gap at round 29.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 4 · Meta: 8 · Grok: 10 · Gemini: 10 · Kimi: 6 · DeepSeek: 10
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 10
36 goals from 45.8 xG, a −9.8 finishing gap: more than 9 goals below what its chances suggest.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 4
Its actual points trail its xPts by 3.2, even as its 36 goals are 7.4 below xG.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 8
42 pts in 31 games – 8th place, +10 safety from Z4 but xPTS says 46% home efficiency
Source ↗ - Grokplace 10
Forty-two points from 31 games, and 7.5 goals under their xG — the finishing gap Folha had already measured at round 29.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Stands ninth with 42 points, but models warn of regression due to a negative expected goal difference (-1.8 xGD) masked by opponent misses.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 6
The ball owes them 9.6 goals — the second-biggest finishing debt in Brazil — and the table still hasn't noticed.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
Eighth on 42 points, but the xG numbers say the attack should be higher — a quiet overperformance hiding in the bottom half of the top ten.
7 AIs put it here - 5
Red Bull Bragantino
Tenth on 40, but xGscore rates its chances at 46.7 xPTS and 48.3 xG. OddsCalendar also has it under-finishing, but by 6.6 goals, not 10.3.
Included it: ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: ChatGPT: 3 · Meta: 10 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 9 · DeepSeek: 8
What each AI noted 5
- ChatGPTplace 3
One feed says 38 goals from 48.1 xG; another reports 38 from 44.6 xG—both show under-finishing, but by different margins.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 10
Bragantino 1.58 xG away model vs Remo – xPTS leader in games where official points dropped
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Tenth on 40 points, with 48.3 xG — ten goals the chances did not become.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
Holds 10th place with a match in hand, boasting an xG differential (+3.4) that outshines every team between 7th and 10th.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
Tenth on 40 points with a positive xG difference — the models see a top-half side trapped in a mid-table run.
5 AIs put it here - 6
Vasco da Gama
15th on 35 points, yet second on both expected-points tables (Statz 50.4, xGscore 49.1): 14 to 15 points short of its chances, the worst gap in the league.
Included it: Claude, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Grok: 3 · Kimi: 2 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 3
Statz has Vasco second on expected points at 50.4 while the table has it on 35, a 15-point shortfall: the mirror image of Palmeiras.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Fifteenth on 35 points, and second on expected points.
Source ↗ - Kimiplace 2
No club in Brazil creates more xG (50.8) or owns more expected points (49.1) — and none is 14.1 points poorer for it.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
Creates enough for 42 expected points but has only 22 in the old snapshot — the biggest negative gap between shot quality and the table.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 7
Atlético-MG
50 points against 44.4–44.7 xPts on both feeds, yet its goals match its xG (42 v 42.1), so the surplus comes from results, not finishing.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini. Did not include: Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 9 · Meta: 6 · Gemini: 7
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 6
50 points on 44.7 xPts, and its goals (42) match its xG (42.1) exactly, so the lead over the shot model comes from results rather than finishing.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
42 goals are 1.7 below xGscore’s xG, while 50 points sit 5.5 above its xPts.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 6
50 pts in 31 games – level on points with G4 chase but xG models rank defense higher than attack
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Trapped in sixth place after squandering 5.1 goals against expected chance creation, dragging down an otherwise top-four shot profile.
Source ↗
4 AIs put it here - 8
Coritiba
Mid-table on 39, but xGscore's 31.5 xPTS equals that of relegation-zone Grêmio. Only one xPts feed has this; Statz's xG (32.9) agrees Coritiba finishes above its chances.
Included it: ChatGPT, Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Claude, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, Wenxin.In their lists: ChatGPT: 5 · Grok: 7 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 3
- ChatGPTplace 5
It has 7.4 more official points than xGscore’s expected-points estimate, despite scoring 4.8 fewer goals than xG.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Thirty-nine points from 31.5 expected, on 33.4 xG — a mid-table place the chances do not support.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
Mid-table with a near-zero xG difference — the table and the shot data agree, which is itself unusual in this league.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 9
Internacional
32 points from chances both feeds value at about 44, the level of Bahia and Atlético-MG, who have 49 and 50 points.
Included it: Claude, Grok. Did not include: ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.2 AIs put it here - 10
Chapecoense
Last on 18, but expected points say about 30. The 12-to-13-point gap comes from results, not finishing: it is only 2.8 goals under its xG.
Included it: Grok, Kimi. Did not include: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.2 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Palmeiras' chance creation depends on the feed: 41.5–42.9 xG on xGscore and Statz, but 49.0 on OddsCalendar and 49.01 on Gato Mestre (16 Oct). Its finishing surplus is therefore anywhere from about +5 to +12 goals.
UFMG's round-30 figures were published three ways: Flamengo 69% (UOL/Lance), 69.4% (R7) and 68.1% (Itatiaia). No new UFMG run has been published since Palmeiras' Saturday win.
On xGscore, the win that put Palmeiras top was the most lopsided result of the round: Athletico-PR created 1.39 xG and scored nothing, while Palmeiras created 0.39 xG and scored two.
On Statz, Flamengo lead the expected-points table (53.3) and Palmeiras, first on the real table, are third (49.4).
03How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Brasileirão clubs the points table and the chance models rank differently
2Why this topic
No single table puts the official standings, two title simulations and two shot models side by side, so this is the only place a reader can see that they disagree about who is in front.
3Where it applies
Brazil's Série A, 2026 title race, after Palmeiras' Saturday win and before Bahia v Flamengo
4What we looked at
- Gap between official points and expected points built from shot quality (two independent xG feeds)
- Goals scored minus expected goals, to separate finishing form from chance creation
- Title probability in two independent season simulations, with each snapshot dated
- Games played, so a points lead with a game more played is not read as a finished lead
- CBF table, as published by ge — Official points, record, goal difference and games played after Palmeiras' 2-0 win at Athletico-PR, before Bahia v Flamengo
- Statz — Expected points (a Poisson model on each match's xG), xG for and xG against for all 20 clubs; text updated 18 Oct
- xGscore — xG, xG conceded and expected points; read 18 Oct, when clubs had played different numbers of games
- OddsCalendar — Goals scored against expected goals per club, 18 Oct snapshot
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
04Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Palmeiras (Brasileirão 2026)
66 points against 49.4 expected: +16.6, the biggest cushion over the shot models in the league, and it comes from 31 games, one more than Flamengo.
Source ↗ - 2Flamengo (Brasileirão 2026)
Top of the expected-points table at 53.3, with 64 points from 30 games. It is the one contender whose results and chances roughly agree, and it is still +10.7.
Source ↗ - 3Vasco da Gama (Brasileirão 2026)
Statz has Vasco second on expected points at 50.4 while the table has it on 35, a 15-point shortfall: the mirror image of Palmeiras.
Source ↗ - 4Athletico-PR (Brasileirão 2026)
Third in the table on 53 points yet only 0.13% to win the title, because the shot models say 46.0 is nearer its level.
Source ↗ - 5Fluminense (Brasileirão 2026)
51 points against 43.5 expected (+7.5), and a title chance of 0.041%.
Source ↗ - 6Atlético Mineiro (Brasileirão 2026)
50 points on 44.7 xPts, and its goals (42) match its xG (42.1) exactly, so the lead over the shot model comes from results rather than finishing.
Source ↗ - 7Cruzeiro (Brasileirão 2026)
Its goals run 8.5 above xG on OddsCalendar (50 v 41.5), which is more than Flamengo's.
Source ↗ - 8Bahia (Brasileirão 2026)
Flamengo's opponent tonight is the opposite case: 49 points on 46.7 xPts, with 44 goals against 48.2 xG, so it has made more chances than it has scored from.
Source ↗ - 9Internacional (Brasileirão 2026)
32 points from 44.1 xPts: −12.1, the second biggest unlucky gap outside the title race.
Source ↗ - 10São Paulo (Brasileirão 2026)
36 goals from 45.8 xG, a −9.8 finishing gap: more than 9 goals below what its chances suggest.
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
On Statz, Flamengo lead the expected-points table (53.3) while Palmeiras, first on the official table, sit third (49.4). Palmeiras' 16.6-point surplus is the largest in the division.
The UFMG title chance for Flamengo fell from 66.2% (after round 26) to 25.3% in the earlier snapshot and back up again, so the favourite has changed three times since August: Palmeiras 60.5% / Flamengo 25.3% after round 24, Flamengo 69.4% after round 30.
The Palmeiras v Flamengo meeting in round 36 (21 or 22 Nov) is the only match where both contenders' simulations can be moved by a single result. Reports describe it as potentially decisive.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Palmeiras Brasileirão 2026
66 official points, but xGscore’s 47.2 xPts leaves an 18.8-point results-versus-chances gap.
Source ↗ - 2Flamengo Brasileirão 2026
xGscore has Flamengo 6.1 goals below xG, while OddsCalendar has it eight goals above xG: a striking feed disagreement.
Source ↗ - 3RB Bragantino Brasileirão 2026
One feed says 38 goals from 48.1 xG; another reports 38 from 44.6 xG—both show under-finishing, but by different margins.
Source ↗ - 4São Paulo Brasileirão 2026
Its actual points trail its xPts by 3.2, even as its 36 goals are 7.4 below xG.
Source ↗ - 5Coritiba Brasileirão 2026
It has 7.4 more official points than xGscore’s expected-points estimate, despite scoring 4.8 fewer goals than xG.
Source ↗ - 6Bahia Brasileirão 2026
The supplied context puts Bahia fifth on 49 points; xGscore gives it 44.4 xPts and a +3.3 finishing surplus.
Source ↗ - 7Athletico-PR Brasileirão 2026
The 49-goal attack is +9.9 over xG on OddsCalendar, but xGscore’s finishing figure is only +4.0.
Source ↗ - 8Botafogo Brasileirão 2026
xGscore’s 39 points are one below its 40.0 xPts, while its goals are 2.1 above xG.
Source ↗ - 9Atlético-MG Brasileirão 2026
42 goals are 1.7 below xGscore’s xG, while 50 points sit 5.5 above its xPts.
Source ↗ - 10Santos Brasileirão 2026
46 goals on 42.1 xG (+3.9) coexist with 42 points, almost level with its 41.8 xPts.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
The title models disagree on who is likelier to win: ge’s 11 October shot-based model favored Flamengo 70.55% to 29.38%, while PlacarHub’s 18 October simulations put Palmeiras at 52% and Flamengo at 48%. The snapshots differ in date and method.
Palmeiras won 2–0 at Athletico and reached 66 points before Flamengo’s 31st-round match; ge reported Flamengo had 64 points and would need a win to finish the round top.
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Flamengo RJ 2026
64 pts in 30 games before Bahia but 68.1% title favorite in UFMG and over 70% in Gato Mestre – a game in hand worth more than 2 points
Source ↗ - 2Palmeiras SP 2026
Leads table with 66 pts in 31 games but models see only 31.6% title chance and +7.4 over xG
Source ↗ - 3Fluminense RJ 2026
54 pts yet only 0.03% title chance in Gato Mestre – points table flatters a mid-table xPTS
Source ↗ - 4Athletico-PR 2026
53 pts in 31 games – third in points but 0.03% title chance shows xG models downgrade
- 5Cruzeiro MG 2026
51 pts enters G4 for first time in 2026 despite xPTS outside top 6 – finishing over chance
Source ↗ - 6Atlético-MG 2026
50 pts in 31 games – level on points with G4 chase but xG models rank defense higher than attack
Source ↗ - 7Bahia BA 2026
49 pts in 30s – fifth place but hosts leader with only 46% home points take in difficulty cut
Source ↗ - 8São Paulo FC 2026
42 pts in 31 games – 8th place, +10 safety from Z4 but xPTS says 46% home efficiency
Source ↗ - 9Botafogo RJ 2026
Outside G4 but best home xG 1.99 – points table undervalues chance creation
Source ↗ - 10Red Bull Bragantino SP 2026
Bragantino 1.58 xG away model vs Remo – xPTS leader in games where official points dropped
Source ↗
What Meta noticed
Athletico-PR 53 pts and Fluminense 54 pts share only 0.03% title chance each in Gato Mestre despite being 11 pts behind leader
Gato Mestre model swung from 78.84% Flamengo after 28th round to 69.73% after 29th – 9 point swing in one round
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Flamengo Brasileirão 2026
Two points back with a game in hand, and still first on both expected-points tables and on both title models.
Source ↗ - 2Palmeiras Brasileirão 2026
The table leader, and the club whose 66 points sit furthest above the chance models: 18.6 above xGscore, 16.6 above Statz.
Source ↗ - 3Vasco da Gama Brasileirão 2026
Fifteenth on 35 points, and second on expected points.
Source ↗ - 4Internacional Brasileirão 2026
Seventeen points of table place are missing: 32 points from 44.2 expected, and 11.7 goals short of their xG.
Source ↗ - 5Red Bull Bragantino Brasileirão 2026
Tenth on 40 points, with 48.3 xG — ten goals the chances did not become.
Source ↗ - 6Chapecoense Brasileirão 2026
Last on 18 points, but only 2.8 goals under their xG — the 12-point hole is results, not a blunt attack.
Source ↗ - 7Coritiba Brasileirão 2026
Thirty-nine points from 31.5 expected, on 33.4 xG — a mid-table place the chances do not support.
Source ↗ - 8Athletico Paranaense Brasileirão 2026
Third on 53 points, with a title price of 0.03% to 0.27% and an xPTS total almost level with the leader's.
Source ↗ - 9Corinthians Brasileirão 2026
Seven points under an expected-points total that would have them out of the bottom four.
Source ↗ - 10São Paulo Brasileirão 2026
Forty-two points from 31 games, and 7.5 goals under their xG — the finishing gap Folha had already measured at round 29.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
Read together, Flamengo are ahead of the race the table is showing. They are two points behind from one game fewer, first on xGscore xPTS (54.1 to 47.4) and on Statz xPts (53.3 to 49.4), and they held about 69–70.55% of the title in the last simulations anyone has published. Those simulations are dated 11–12 October, before Palmeiras went to 66.
Palmeiras' surplus is not the same size on every feed. xGscore has them 12.1 goals and 18.6 points above the chances. Gato Mestre, on 16 October, had 52 goals from 49.01 xG and an xGA of 21.46 against 22 conceded, which reads as a real defence and only a small finishing bonus.
The Saturday win that put Palmeiras top was the least balanced result of the round on xGscore: Athletico-PR 1.39 xG and no goals, Palmeiras 0.39 xG and two goals, fairness marked at 25%.
Outside the title pair, the table is upside down in the middle. Vasco, on 35 points, have 49.1 xPTS. Internacional, on 32, have 44.2. Bragantino, on 40, have created 48.3 xG.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Flamengo (2026)
Trails the official table by two points but leads every major predictive simulation with up to a 70.5% title probability.
Source ↗ - 2Palmeiras (2026)
Holds first place with 66 points after Saturday's win, but chance models award them less than a third of the championship equity.
- 3Fluminense (2026)
Sits fifth in the league standings yet climbs to third in expected points thanks to an unlucky -5.2 net finishing gap.
Source ↗ - 4Athletico-PR (2026)
Occupies third spot in the official table despite ranking sixth in quality of open-play chances conceded.
- 5Cruzeiro (2026)
Maintains fourth place in the standings while chance models tag its 46 conceded goals as the third-worst defensive profile in the top ten.
Source ↗ - 6Bahia (2026)
Ranks fifth with a game in hand and generates the fourth-highest home xG in Brazil, giving them a much stronger profile than their +8 goal difference suggests.
Source ↗ - 7Atlético-MG (2026)
Trapped in sixth place after squandering 5.1 goals against expected chance creation, dragging down an otherwise top-four shot profile.
Source ↗ - 8Botafogo (2026)
Languishes in 11th on 39 points, yet shot data places their chance differential four spots higher in 7th.
Source ↗ - 9Red Bull Bragantino (2026)
Holds 10th place with a match in hand, boasting an xG differential (+3.4) that outshines every team between 7th and 10th.
Source ↗ - 10São Paulo (2026)
Stands ninth with 42 points, but models warn of regression due to a negative expected goal difference (-1.8 xGD) masked by opponent misses.
Source ↗
🇨🇳 Kimi10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Kimi alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Palmeiras 2026 — the leader the shot models refuse to trust
Top of the table and top of the luck index: +14.7 points above what their chances were worth — the model underdog wearing the leader's jersey.
Source ↗ - 2Vasco da Gama 2026 — second in chances, fifteenth in points
No club in Brazil creates more xG (50.8) or owns more expected points (49.1) — and none is 14.1 points poorer for it.
Source ↗ - 3Flamengo 2026 — second in points, first in every model
The only side both simulations crown favorite — 66-70% title chance — despite trailing Palmeiras, and with a game in hand.
Source ↗ - 4Athletico-PR 2026 — third in the table, 1% in the simulator
The league's second-luckiest attack (+8.0 goals over xG) is holding up a 3rd place that both models call already over.
Source ↗ - 5Chapecoense 2026 — bottom of everything except misfortune
18 points and a 13-point finishing debt — but the league's leakiest defense (50.9 xG conceded) says part of the misery is earned.
Source ↗ - 6São Paulo 2026 — ninth in points, second on the unlucky list
The ball owes them 9.6 goals — the second-biggest finishing debt in Brazil — and the table still hasn't noticed.
Source ↗ - 7Fluminense 2026 — fourth and dreaming, 1% awake
51 points and a game in hand keep hope alive; both season sims filed their title bid weeks ago.
Source ↗ - 8Cruzeiro 2026 — a Libertadores race wearing a title costume
Sixth in points, 0.6% in the simulator: their real season is the G5 fight, and the table flatters to suggest otherwise.
Source ↗ - 9Bahia 2026 — fifth in points, spoiler-in-chief by venue
49 points and a 0.4% title chance — but an eight-game home unbeaten run made them the night the favorite's model nearly broke.
Source ↗ - 10Mirassol 2026 — quietly five points poorer than their play
14th in the table on 36 points, from chances worth 41.2 expected — a small, steady finishing tax nobody is arguing about.
Source ↗
What Kimi noticed
The whole title race is a finishing-variance story: Statz has Palmeiras (+14.7 pts over xPts) and Flamengo (+10.7) as the league's two luckiest sides — and the UFMG/Gato Mestre sims still split them 66-70% vs 29-32% because Flamengo's underlying numbers (best xG difference) are stronger.
Vasco are the ranking's biggest twist: most xG created in Brazil (50.8), 2nd in expected points (49.1) — and 15th in the real table, a 14.1-point finishing and game-state gap no other club comes near.
Both independent simulations have converged: after round 30, Gato Mestre gave Flamengo 70.55% and Palmeiras 29.38% — 99.93% between them — and UFMG's late-week update moved the same way (66.2% vs 32.0% quoted after Palmeiras' Saturday win). The two-horse race is a statistical consensus, not a media narrative.
Transparency note: this ranking uses the requested pre-match snapshot. ge's report of the same evening shows Bahia 0-3 Flamengo (Jorginho, Plata, Paquetá), which flipped the table to Flamengo 67, Palmeiras 66.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Palmeiras
Top of the table on 66 points with a game more played, yet the models make Flamengo a near-70% favourite — the lead is thinner than the points say.
Source ↗ - 2Flamengo
Second on 64 points with a game in hand and the league's best xG difference — the table says chase, the chance models say clear favourite.
- 3Vasco da Gama
Creates enough for 42 expected points but has only 22 in the old snapshot — the biggest negative gap between shot quality and the table.
Source ↗ - 4Cruzeiro
Fourth on 51 points, but expected points said top-four when the table said mid-table — the models were right about the rise.
Source ↗ - 5Fluminense
Fourth on 51 points but +10.7 goals over xG — the finish, not the chance creation, is holding the table place.
Source ↗ - 6Athletico-PR
Third on 53 points and top of the xG chart on 52.3, but scoring fewer goals than the chances say — a quiet underperformance at the top.
- 7Bahia
Fifth on 49 points, but the shot models see a mid-table attack — the table is ahead of the chance creation.
Source ↗ - 8RB Bragantino
Tenth on 40 points with a positive xG difference — the models see a top-half side trapped in a mid-table run.
- 9Coritiba
Mid-table with a near-zero xG difference — the table and the shot data agree, which is itself unusual in this league.
Source ↗ - 10São Paulo
Eighth on 42 points, but the xG numbers say the attack should be higher — a quiet overperformance hiding in the bottom half of the top ten.
What DeepSeek noticed
Flamengo have the league's best goals-minus-xG figure (+8.1) and the best xG difference, which is why the models trust them even while they sit second.
Palmeiras' +3.5 goals over xG is modest for a leader, and their expected-points overperformance (+14 in the old FootyStats snapshot) is the largest among the top two — the table is built on finishing, not chance dominance.
Vasco's -20 expected-points gap is the most extreme in the division: the chances are there, the conversion and the table are not.