World ending stocks are forecast to nearly halve, from 239,800 t to 123,400 t (−48.5%), leaving little buffer if a crop fails.
Back to the trend of the day: Pistachios are running out in China, and stores now limit how many you buy
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Top Pistachio Producing Countries 2026 by Harvest Risk
World ending stocks are forecast to nearly halve, from 239,800 t to 123,400 t (−48.5%), leaving little buffer if a crop fails.
- No. 1: United States
- 10 places
- 9 AIs
01Final list
9 AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
United States
Grows 65% of the world's crop, and the INC forecasts it falling by half, from 722,670 to 350,000 t. Trade sources say 300,000 t, so even the forecasters are 14% apart.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Grok: 1 · Gemini: 1 · DeepSeek: 2 · MiMo: 1 · Qwen: 1
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 1
About 65% of the 2025/26 world crop (722,670 of 1,101,740 t on the INC table), forecast to lose half of it in one season.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 1
A projected loss of 372,670 metric tons from the previous season is almost as large as the entire expected 2026/27 output of every producer outside the United States.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 1
Forecasts diverge sharply: USDA had a record 713k tons for 2025/26, while INC sees 2026/27 crashing ~52% to 350k tons after heat-hit pollination.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Carrying 62% of world supply on its shoulders, California's orchards are diving 51.6% into an off-year abyss after prolonged 110°F summer heat spikes triggered high blanking rates.
- DeepSeekplace 2
A record 713,000 t on-year becomes 350,000 t in INC's off-year forecast — a 51.6% drop that alone removes more than Turkey produces.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 1
One state grows nearly two-thirds of the world's pistachios, and its next crop is forecast to fall by half — right after a season that rose 43%.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 1
After a record 1.57 billion lbs in 2025, INC forecasts a brutal 51.6% drop for 2026/27 as California's summer heat decimates the 'off-year' crop.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 2
Turkey
The biggest swing among major growers: 415,500 t to 114,600 t in one season (−72%). Turkish exporters still can't agree whether 2026/27 brings 100,000 or 200,000 t.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · ChatGPT: 3 · Grok: 2 · Gemini: 2 · DeepSeek: 1 · MiMo: 2 · Qwen: 3
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 3
Went from 415,500 t in 2024/25 to 114,600 t in 2025/26 (−72%), the biggest swing among major growers.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
Turkey is forecast to gain 41,800 metric tons while the world's harvest falls, illustrating how its crop cycle can run against the global trend.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 2
Classic extreme alternate bearing: 385k tons in 2024/25 down to 120k in USDA 2025/26; INC sees a partial rebound to 156k.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa crops swing by more than 60% every alternating autumn, with rainfed orchards entirely defenseless against Southeastern Anatolian drought waves.
- DeepSeekplace 1
The crop fell from 385,000 t to 120,000 t in one season; even INC's 2026/27 rebound to 156,400 t leaves Turkey 228,600 t below its 2024/25 record.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 2
From a record 415,500 tons to 114,600 and back — and Turkish exporters themselves can't agree whether 2026/27 lands at 100,000 or 200,000 tons.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 3
Famous for the most violent on/off-year swings in the industry, its 120,000-ton forecast can easily halve depending on winter chill hours.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 3
Iran
USDA and the INC are 25,000 t apart on Iran's last crop, and both now see the next one down by more than 40%. Power cuts that stop irrigation add to the drought.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 2 · Grok: 3 · Gemini: 3 · DeepSeek: 3 · MiMo: 3 · Qwen: 2
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 2
Drought, heat and power cuts hit trees in 2025; the INC sees another −42% in 2026/27, and local and USDA numbers differ by up to 40,000 t.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 2
The forecast removes 95,000 metric tons from Iranian output, while drought remains a separate risk beyond the trees' alternating production cycle.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 3
Production forecasts range 115–130k tons (−40–50%), compounded by drought, power cuts and export disruptions.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Kerman province is battling a critical groundwater depletion emergency and soil salinization that makes each harvest a gamble against nature.
- DeepSeekplace 3
USDA sees 200,000 t and INC sees 225,000 t for 2025/26 — a 25,000 t disagreement, before the 2026/27 cut to 130,000 t.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 3
USDA and INC are 25,000 tons apart on Iran's last crop, and both now say the next one falls by more than 40% — with power cuts, not just weather, blamed.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 2
The world's #2 producer is battling a dual crisis of extreme alternate bearing and a severe, multi-year water shortage crippling its 200,000-ton output.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 4
Syria
Forecast to rise 158% to 35,000 t, yet USDA and the INC disagree on last season (20,000 vs 13,550 t), and both are far below the 46,200 t decade average.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 5 · Grok: 4 · Gemini: 4 · DeepSeek: 4 · MiMo: 4 · Qwen: 4
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 4
A small crop forecast to rise 158% to 35,000 t, which shows how little a base of 13,550 t tells you.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 5
Syria's projected output more than doubles, but it would still account for only about 5% of world production.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 4
Small base but large relative swing: INC projects +158% to 35k tons from a low base.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
War-damaged irrigation canals and recurrent Levantine heatwaves leave Aleppo's heritage trees swinging wildly between sparse 25,000-ton lows and 50,000-ton rebounds.
- DeepSeekplace 4
Production halved to 20,000 t; even INC's 2026/27 rebound to 35,000 t is below the 46,200 t decade average.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 4
A war-scarred crop of 13,550 tons is forecast to more than double to 35,000 — bigger than Australia's, Greece's and Italy's crops combined.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 4
Once a major player, civil unrest combined with intense Levantine droughts makes its harvest forecasts almost impossible to verify.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 5
Italy
The steepest percentage fall: 4,700 t to 1,000 t (−78.7%), though the published table prints −88.7%. Trade sources say 830 t.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 4 · Grok: 5 · Gemini: 5 · DeepSeek: 6 · MiMo: 6 · Qwen: see list
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 5
Italy's tiny crop is forecast to fall 78.7% to 1,000 t, the steepest percentage drop in the table, from a base of 4,700 t.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 4
The industry's forecast is a collapse from 4,700 to 1,000 metric tons, the sharpest percentage fall among the ten listed countries.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 5
Italy forecast to fall ~79% to ~1,000 tons; other EU countries show mixed but smaller absolute swings.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Bronte's volcanic trees on Mount Etna are deliberately harvested only in odd-numbered years, institutionalizing a dramatic 80% biennial production swing.
- DeepSeekplace 6
Italy's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 1,000 t, down 78.7% — the sharpest percentage fall among tracked producers.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 6
4,700 tons to 830–1,000 in a single season — and the published tables print two different percentages for the same fall.
Source ↗ - Qwen
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list
7 of 9 - 6
Greece
The only country where forecasters disagree on direction: +41.7% (INC, May) vs −30% (trade sources, July), both from the same 6,000 t base.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 7 · Grok: 6 · Gemini: 6 · DeepSeek: 7 · MiMo: 5 · Qwen: 6
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 7
Forecast up 42% to 8,500 t, but on a share of world supply of under 1%.
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 7
Greece's anticipated 41.7% rebound is much larger proportionally than Spain's, although both remain minor global suppliers.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 6
INC sees a solid on-year rebound (+42% to 8,500 tons) after lower years.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Aegina and Phthiotis groves face mounting winter chilling deficits as Mediterranean winters warm, throwing bud-break timing into erratic disarray.
- DeepSeekplace 7
Greece is forecast up 42% to 8,500 t, but its 6,000–10,000 t range is small enough that one hot summer can reverse it.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 5
The only country where the forecasters disagree on the sign: +41.7% in May, -30.0% in July, from the same 6,000-ton base.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 6
Mediterranean heatwaves are shrinking yields, with the bloc holding just 3.7% of global supply but facing high forecast disagreements.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 7
Australia
Fell 33% to 3,000 t in 2025/26 and is forecast to jump 83% to 5,500 t: large swings on a small, young crop. Both forecasters agree.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 6 · Grok: 7 · Gemini: 10 · DeepSeek: 9 · MiMo: 7 · Qwen: 7
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 6
A fast-growing young industry: 3,000 t now, 5,500 t forecast (+83%).
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 6
Australia's forecast jumps 83.3% in a year, an unusually large swing for a producer representing less than 1% of the global total.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 7
Small volume but large relative gain (+83% to 5,500 tons) as plantings mature.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Southern Hemisphere counter-seasonal orchards along the Murray-Darling rely on sophisticated precision irrigation, keeping crop volatility among the lowest in the world.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
At 5,500 t forecast for 2026/27, Australia is small in tonnes but exposed to the same heat and water limits as California.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 7
The quietest swing in the top ten — 3,000 to 5,500 tons — and the only one where every forecaster says the same thing.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 7
A minor producer trying to stabilize yields, but severe El Nino cycles routinely slash their domestic output by a third.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 8
Spain
The INC sees a steady 9,500 to 11,500 t (+21%), but Spain's ministry reported 42,374 t for 2025/26. That is a fourfold gap in measurement, not in weather.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 9 · ChatGPT: 8 · Grok: 8 · Gemini: 7 · DeepSeek: 5 · MiMo: 8 · Qwen: 9
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 9
The steadiest of the European growers, from 9,500 t to a forecast 11,500 t (+21%).
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 8
Spain is expanding productive orchards while the global harvest contracts, making growth in planted area a counterweight to annual crop variability.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 8
Modest growth (+21% to 11,500 tons) constrained by water availability.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 7
Europe's fastest-expanding pistachio acreage in Castilla-La Mancha suffers sharp yield shocks whenever late Iberian spring frosts hit nascent blossoms.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
INC sees 11,500 t for 2026/27 while Spain's ministry reports 42,374 t for 2025/26 — the widest measurement gap in this table.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 8
The one Mediterranean origin both forecasters agree is growing — 9,500 to 11,500 tons — while Italy's crop collapses next door.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 9
New orchards in Andalusia are pushing production up, but Iberian summer heat is forcing heavy irrigation reliance that threatens long-term stability.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 9
Afghanistan
The flattest line on the table (2,600 to 2,700 t), but Herat alone reports 7,000 t, and EFE's copy of the same table puts that line under Argentina.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 10 · Grok: 9 · Gemini: 8 · DeepSeek: 8 · MiMo: 10 · Qwen: 5
What each AI noted 7
- Claudeplace 10
The calmest line on the table: 2,600 t to 2,700 t (+4%).
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
Afghanistan shows the smallest forecast annual change among these ten producers: just 100 metric tons.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 9
Stable low volume (~2,600–2,700 tons) with limited swing.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Herat's rain-fed wild and cultivated forests remain largely unmechanized, causing yields to crater whenever mountain snowpack fails.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
INC counts 2,600 t for Afghanistan; a USDA-derived list says 68,000 t and Herat alone reports 7,000 t — a 26-fold data gap.
Source ↗ - MiMoplace 10
2,600 to 2,700 tons — the flattest line in the whole table, in the country where drought is the normal condition.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 5
A historic growing region where total reliance on snowmelt means a single dry winter wipes out the entire provincial harvest.
Source ↗
7 of 9 - 10
China
Grows only 320–450 t but imported 133,744 t in 2024. The harvest risk is tiny; the import risk is not.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen. Did not include: Meta, DeepSeek, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 9 · Grok: 10 · Gemini: 9 · MiMo: 9 · Qwen: 8
What each AI noted 6
- Claudeplace 8
The INC table lists China's own crop at 320 t, while China is a major importer (USDA: 125,000 t, down nearly 15%).
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
China may be a huge pistachio buyer, but its own forecast harvest is only 450 metric tons against a 701,050-ton world crop.
Source ↗ - Grokplace 10
Tiny domestic crop (~320–450 tons) means almost all supply is imported and subject to external volatility.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
Xinjiang's expanding desert plantations battle brutal Tarim Basin continental extremes, where early budding can be scorched in days.
- MiMoplace 9
China grows about 450 tons and imports over 125,000 — its harvest risk is a rounding error; its price risk is not.
Source ↗ - Qwenplace 8
Domestic plantings are expanding, but extreme continental temperature swings make the local 'off-year' drops much steeper than in California.
Source ↗
6 of 9
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
The US and Iran are both in off years at the same time: together they lose about 467,670 t, more than the net world drop, because Turkey, Syria and smaller growers rise.
Forecasts kept falling: the INC said 701,050 t for the 2026/27 world crop in May, and trade sources said 600,180 t in July, about 17% lower.
The US, Turkey and Iran grow about 90% of the forecast 2026/27 crop, so weather in three countries sets the world price.
Iran's share is quoted differently: about a fifth of production and a third of exports, while the US makes about 40% of output and half of exports. Export shares are not the same as production shares.
03Questions people ask
What country produces the most pistachios?
The United States: 713,000 t in 2025/26 according to USDA, about 65% of world output. Iran is second with 200,000–225,000 t.
Source ↗What are the top pistachio producing countries?
For 2025/26 the order is the United States, Iran and Turkey (114,600–120,000 t), then Syria, Spain, Greece and Italy. In 2026/27 the INC expects Turkey (156,400 t) to overtake Iran (130,000 t).
Source ↗Is there a pistachio shortage in 2026?
Yes. The INC forecasts the 2026/27 world crop at 701,050 t (−36.4%), and trade sources have since cut it to 600,180 t (−45.5%).
Source ↗Why do pistachio production figures differ?
USDA and the INC use different bases and dates. For the same 2025/26 season they put Iran at 200,000 vs 225,000 t and the US at 713,000 vs 722,670 t.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Pistachio-Producing Countries, Ranked by How Shaky Their Next Harvest Is
2Why this topic
Instead of a plain list of the biggest growers, the reader learns which ones the world can rely on next season, and where the two main forecasts split.
3Where it applies
Global pistachio-growing countries
4What we looked at
- Size of the swing between on-year and off-year crops over the past decade
- Gap between the USDA and the industry council (INC) forecasts for the same season
- Share of world supply the country provides
- Exposure to drought and summer heat
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, February 2026 — 2025/26 in-shell production by country: US 713,000 t, Iran 200,000 t, Turkey 120,000 t
- INC via Mintec/Expana (FreshPlaza) — 2026/27 forecast: world 701,000 t (−36.4%), US −51.6%; ending stocks 123,400 t
- INC country table (Mundus Agri, May 2026) — Each country's crop, 2025/26 vs 2026/27, showing the size of the swing
- Trade sources (Mundus Agri, July 2026) — A second 2026/27 forecast (world 600,180 t), used to show where forecasters disagree
5Who ranked
9 AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin, MiMo, Qwen.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States
About 65% of the 2025/26 world crop (722,670 of 1,101,740 t on the INC table), forecast to lose half of it in one season.
Source ↗ - 2Iran
Drought, heat and power cuts hit trees in 2025; the INC sees another −42% in 2026/27, and local and USDA numbers differ by up to 40,000 t.
Source ↗ - 3Turkey
Went from 415,500 t in 2024/25 to 114,600 t in 2025/26 (−72%), the biggest swing among major growers.
Source ↗ - 4Syria
A small crop forecast to rise 158% to 35,000 t, which shows how little a base of 13,550 t tells you.
Source ↗ - 5Italy
Italy's tiny crop is forecast to fall 78.7% to 1,000 t, the steepest percentage drop in the table, from a base of 4,700 t.
Source ↗ - 6Australia
A fast-growing young industry: 3,000 t now, 5,500 t forecast (+83%).
Source ↗ - 7Greece
Forecast up 42% to 8,500 t, but on a share of world supply of under 1%.
Source ↗ - 8China
The INC table lists China's own crop at 320 t, while China is a major importer (USDA: 125,000 t, down nearly 15%).
Source ↗ - 9Spain
The steadiest of the European growers, from 9,500 t to a forecast 11,500 t (+21%).
Source ↗ - 10Afghanistan
The calmest line on the table: 2,600 t to 2,700 t (+4%).
Source ↗
What Claude noticed
The US makes about 65% of the world crop (INC table) and is forecast down about 51% in 2026/27. One tree-nut state decides the world supply.
Turkey's crop fell from 415,500 t to 114,600 t in one season (−72%), the biggest swing among the large growers, and is only forecast to recover to 156,400 t.
Ending stocks are forecast to halve, from 239,800 t to 123,400 t (−48.5%), so there is little buffer.
The Jiemian article says Iran produces about a fifth of world output and a third of exports, and the US about 40% of output and half of exports (USDA). Export shares differ from production shares.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
A projected loss of 372,670 metric tons from the previous season is almost as large as the entire expected 2026/27 output of every producer outside the United States.
Source ↗ - 2Iran — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
The forecast removes 95,000 metric tons from Iranian output, while drought remains a separate risk beyond the trees' alternating production cycle.
Source ↗ - 3Turkey — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Turkey is forecast to gain 41,800 metric tons while the world's harvest falls, illustrating how its crop cycle can run against the global trend.
Source ↗ - 4Italy — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
The industry's forecast is a collapse from 4,700 to 1,000 metric tons, the sharpest percentage fall among the ten listed countries.
Source ↗ - 5Syria — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Syria's projected output more than doubles, but it would still account for only about 5% of world production.
Source ↗ - 6Australia — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Australia's forecast jumps 83.3% in a year, an unusually large swing for a producer representing less than 1% of the global total.
Source ↗ - 7Greece — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Greece's anticipated 41.7% rebound is much larger proportionally than Spain's, although both remain minor global suppliers.
Source ↗ - 8Spain — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Spain is expanding productive orchards while the global harvest contracts, making growth in planted area a counterweight to annual crop variability.
Source ↗ - 9China — 2026/27 Domestic Pistachio Harvest
China may be a huge pistachio buyer, but its own forecast harvest is only 450 metric tons against a 701,050-ton world crop.
Source ↗ - 10Afghanistan — 2026/27 Pistachio Harvest
Afghanistan shows the smallest forecast annual change among these ten producers: just 100 metric tons.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
The United States and Iran together account for approximately 467,670 metric tons of the projected 2026/27 production decline, more than the net global drop because several smaller producers are forecast to grow.
The United States, Turkey and Iran account for about 90.8% of projected 2026/27 production. Weather affecting these three countries can therefore dominate the worldwide crop outlook.
USDA reports that the United States harvested a record 1.58 billion pounds in 2025, yet the following INC forecast points to a major contraction: long-term orchard growth does not eliminate annual volatility.
INC expects world output to fall 36.4% to 701,050 metric tons while global pistachio consumption is described by EFE as exceeding one million metric tons, emphasizing the importance of inventories and trade.
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States 2026/27
Forecasts diverge sharply: USDA had a record 713k tons for 2025/26, while INC sees 2026/27 crashing ~52% to 350k tons after heat-hit pollination.
Source ↗ - 2Turkey 2026/27
Classic extreme alternate bearing: 385k tons in 2024/25 down to 120k in USDA 2025/26; INC sees a partial rebound to 156k.
Source ↗ - 3Iran 2026/27
Production forecasts range 115–130k tons (−40–50%), compounded by drought, power cuts and export disruptions.
Source ↗ - 4Syria 2026/27
Small base but large relative swing: INC projects +158% to 35k tons from a low base.
Source ↗ - 5Italy/EU small producers 2026/27
Italy forecast to fall ~79% to ~1,000 tons; other EU countries show mixed but smaller absolute swings.
Source ↗ - 6Greece 2026/27
INC sees a solid on-year rebound (+42% to 8,500 tons) after lower years.
Source ↗ - 7Australia 2026/27
Small volume but large relative gain (+83% to 5,500 tons) as plantings mature.
Source ↗ - 8Spain 2026/27
Modest growth (+21% to 11,500 tons) constrained by water availability.
Source ↗ - 9Afghanistan 2026/27
Stable low volume (~2,600–2,700 tons) with limited swing.
Source ↗ - 10China (domestic production) 2026/27
Tiny domestic crop (~320–450 tons) means almost all supply is imported and subject to external volatility.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
The three biggest producers (US, Iran, Turkey) routinely account for >90% of world supply, so their staggered on/off years create large global price swings.
INC’s 2026/27 world total of ~701k tons (−36%) is markedly lower than earlier USDA 2025/26 outlooks near 1.1 million tons, highlighting forecast uncertainty.
Spring heat in California that damaged pollen has become a recurring risk factor amplifying the natural alternate-bearing cycle.
Turkey’s historical swings (e.g., 87k to 385k tons) are among the largest relative moves of any major crop.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States
Carrying 62% of world supply on its shoulders, California's orchards are diving 51.6% into an off-year abyss after prolonged 110°F summer heat spikes triggered high blanking rates.
- 2Turkey
Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa crops swing by more than 60% every alternating autumn, with rainfed orchards entirely defenseless against Southeastern Anatolian drought waves.
- 3Iran
Kerman province is battling a critical groundwater depletion emergency and soil salinization that makes each harvest a gamble against nature.
- 4Syria
War-damaged irrigation canals and recurrent Levantine heatwaves leave Aleppo's heritage trees swinging wildly between sparse 25,000-ton lows and 50,000-ton rebounds.
- 5Italy
Bronte's volcanic trees on Mount Etna are deliberately harvested only in odd-numbered years, institutionalizing a dramatic 80% biennial production swing.
- 6Greece
Aegina and Phthiotis groves face mounting winter chilling deficits as Mediterranean winters warm, throwing bud-break timing into erratic disarray.
- 7Spain
Europe's fastest-expanding pistachio acreage in Castilla-La Mancha suffers sharp yield shocks whenever late Iberian spring frosts hit nascent blossoms.
Source ↗ - 8Afghanistan
Herat's rain-fed wild and cultivated forests remain largely unmechanized, causing yields to crater whenever mountain snowpack fails.
Source ↗ - 9China
Xinjiang's expanding desert plantations battle brutal Tarim Basin continental extremes, where early budding can be scorched in days.
- 10Australia
Southern Hemisphere counter-seasonal orchards along the Murray-Darling rely on sophisticated precision irrigation, keeping crop volatility among the lowest in the world.
Source ↗
What Gemini noticed
The United States now dominates global pistachio trade so completely (>60% of world volume) that California's natural biennial swing single-handedly governs world nut availability and international prices.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Turkey
The crop fell from 385,000 t to 120,000 t in one season; even INC's 2026/27 rebound to 156,400 t leaves Turkey 228,600 t below its 2024/25 record.
Source ↗ - 2United States
A record 713,000 t on-year becomes 350,000 t in INC's off-year forecast — a 51.6% drop that alone removes more than Turkey produces.
Source ↗ - 3Iran
USDA sees 200,000 t and INC sees 225,000 t for 2025/26 — a 25,000 t disagreement, before the 2026/27 cut to 130,000 t.
Source ↗ - 4Syria
Production halved to 20,000 t; even INC's 2026/27 rebound to 35,000 t is below the 46,200 t decade average.
Source ↗ - 5Spain
INC sees 11,500 t for 2026/27 while Spain's ministry reports 42,374 t for 2025/26 — the widest measurement gap in this table.
Source ↗ - 6Italy
Italy's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 1,000 t, down 78.7% — the sharpest percentage fall among tracked producers.
Source ↗ - 7Greece
Greece is forecast up 42% to 8,500 t, but its 6,000–10,000 t range is small enough that one hot summer can reverse it.
Source ↗ - 8Afghanistan
INC counts 2,600 t for Afghanistan; a USDA-derived list says 68,000 t and Herat alone reports 7,000 t — a 26-fold data gap.
Source ↗ - 9Australia
At 5,500 t forecast for 2026/27, Australia is small in tonnes but exposed to the same heat and water limits as California.
Source ↗ - 10Argentina
A 2,700 t forecast is tiny globally, but a 500% expansion in planted area in five years makes water risk matter more than tonnage.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
Turkey's 2025/26 fall is not just an off-year: INC's 114,600 t is down 72.4% from 415,500 t, and USDA's 120,000 t is down nearly 70%, making it the largest single-year percentage drop among major producers.
The 2026/27 global drop to 701,000 t is driven by the US and Iran both entering off-years at once; the US alone falls 51.6% and Iran 42.2%, while Turkey rises 36.5%.
Ending stocks are forecast to halve from 239,800 t to 123,400 t, so the market buffer is shrinking faster than the crop number alone suggests.
Afghanistan is the clearest data-quality warning: INC counts 2,600 t, a USDA-derived list says 68,000 t and Herat alone reports 7,000 t — a 26-fold spread that makes cross-country ranking fragile.
🇨🇳 MiMo10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by MiMo alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States pistachio crop 2026/27
One state grows nearly two-thirds of the world's pistachios, and its next crop is forecast to fall by half — right after a season that rose 43%.
Source ↗ - 2Turkey pistachio crop 2026/27
From a record 415,500 tons to 114,600 and back — and Turkish exporters themselves can't agree whether 2026/27 lands at 100,000 or 200,000 tons.
Source ↗ - 3Iran pistachio crop 2026/27
USDA and INC are 25,000 tons apart on Iran's last crop, and both now say the next one falls by more than 40% — with power cuts, not just weather, blamed.
Source ↗ - 4Syria pistachio crop 2026/27
A war-scarred crop of 13,550 tons is forecast to more than double to 35,000 — bigger than Australia's, Greece's and Italy's crops combined.
Source ↗ - 5Greece pistachio crop 2026/27
The only country where the forecasters disagree on the sign: +41.7% in May, -30.0% in July, from the same 6,000-ton base.
Source ↗ - 6Italy pistachio crop 2026/27
4,700 tons to 830–1,000 in a single season — and the published tables print two different percentages for the same fall.
Source ↗ - 7Australia pistachio crop 2026/27
The quietest swing in the top ten — 3,000 to 5,500 tons — and the only one where every forecaster says the same thing.
Source ↗ - 8Spain pistachio crop 2026/27
The one Mediterranean origin both forecasters agree is growing — 9,500 to 11,500 tons — while Italy's crop collapses next door.
Source ↗ - 9China pistachio crop (Xinjiang) 2026/27
China grows about 450 tons and imports over 125,000 — its harvest risk is a rounding error; its price risk is not.
Source ↗ - 10Afghanistan pistachio crop 2026/27
2,600 to 2,700 tons — the flattest line in the whole table, in the country where drought is the normal condition.
Source ↗
What MiMo noticed
For the first time in years the two biggest origins fall in the same season: world output drops below 1 million tonnes for the first time since 2022/23 (747,349 t), to 701,050 t — and that is the optimistic forecast.
The buffer is gone: ending stocks are projected to fall from about 239,800 t to 123,400 t (-48.5%), so a single bad bloom in California can no longer be absorbed by carryover.
Concentration is the real fragility: the US is 65.2% of world production, so one California heat wave at bloom now sets the world price — one grower reported about 60% empty shells this season.
The strangest number in the table: war-scarred Syria is forecast to more than double to 35,000 t — more than Australia, Greece and Italy combined — while Italy's crop is pencilled in near zero.
🇨🇳 Qwen10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Qwen alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1United States (California) Pistachio Harvest 2026
After a record 1.57 billion lbs in 2025, INC forecasts a brutal 51.6% drop for 2026/27 as California's summer heat decimates the 'off-year' crop.
Source ↗ - 2Iran Pistachio Production (2026)
The world's #2 producer is battling a dual crisis of extreme alternate bearing and a severe, multi-year water shortage crippling its 200,000-ton output.
Source ↗ - 3Turkey Pistachio Crop Forecast
Famous for the most violent on/off-year swings in the industry, its 120,000-ton forecast can easily halve depending on winter chill hours.
Source ↗ - 4Syria Pistachio Agriculture
Once a major player, civil unrest combined with intense Levantine droughts makes its harvest forecasts almost impossible to verify.
Source ↗ - 5Afghanistan Pistachio Harvest
A historic growing region where total reliance on snowmelt means a single dry winter wipes out the entire provincial harvest.
Source ↗ - 6European Union (Greece/Italy) Pistachio Yields
Mediterranean heatwaves are shrinking yields, with the bloc holding just 3.7% of global supply but facing high forecast disagreements.
Source ↗ - 7Australia Pistachio Crop
A minor producer trying to stabilize yields, but severe El Nino cycles routinely slash their domestic output by a third.
Source ↗ - 8China (Xinjiang) Pistachio Production
Domestic plantings are expanding, but extreme continental temperature swings make the local 'off-year' drops much steeper than in California.
Source ↗ - 9Spain Pistachio Orchards
New orchards in Andalusia are pushing production up, but Iberian summer heat is forcing heavy irrigation reliance that threatens long-term stability.
Source ↗ - 10Uzbekistan Pistachio Yields
Soviet-era orchards are struggling with aging infrastructure and Central Asian water disputes, making their harvest forecasts highly unpredictable.
Source ↗
What Qwen noticed
The Alternate Bearing Curse: Pistachio trees naturally produce a massive crop one year and barely anything the next; the US is exiting a record 'on-year' and heading into a projected 51.6% crash for 2026/27.
Iran's Water Crisis: Despite holding 18.3% of global supply, Iran's historic orchards are suffering plummeting yields due to severe, multi-year water shortages that are fundamentally altering global trade routes.
California's Heatwave Shock: Unlike the predictable alternate-bearing cycle, the sudden summer 2026 heat in California unexpectedly scorched the developing crop, adding an unplanned deficit to the global supply.