A season start and a manager's start are different things. Solskjær took 10 points from the first nine games of 2019-20, but 26 from his first 10 games in charge in 2018-19.
Back to the trend of the day: Ten men and two goals down: Manchester United's bad run gets worse
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Manchester United Worst Start to a Season: 2026 Top 10
Michael Carrick's United took six points from their first six league games of 2026-27, the club's lowest since 1986, and are running below even Rúben Amorim's 11 points from his first 10.
- No. 1: Rúben Amorim (2024-25)
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs each built their own list of ten independently. Here is one result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, a source, and the list of AIs that included it.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
Rúben Amorim (2024-25)
The worst complete first 10 by a United manager: 11 points (W3 D2 L5), 14 scored and 17 conceded. One xG model puts his 2024-25 results eight points below his chances.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 2 · ChatGPT: 1 · Gemini: 1
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 2
11 points from 10 (1.1 per game), with 14 goals scored and 17 conceded. He later called it the club's worst team in history.
- ChatGPTplace 1
His full Premier League record ended at 1.23 points per game, the lowest among United managers in the Premier League era in the league’s comparison.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 1
Won just 8 points from 30, becoming the first Manchester United manager since Walter Crickmer in 1932 to lose 5 of his opening 10 matches in all competitions.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 2
Louis van Gaal (2014-15)
13 points from 10 (W3 D4 L3), including a 3-5 loss at Leicester. It was the Premier League-era low until 2024-25. No xG source covers his start.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 4 · ChatGPT: 6 · Gemini: 4
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 4
13 points from 10 (1.3 per game), including a 3-5 loss at Leicester. The Analyst records this as the club's second-lowest Premier League 10-game tally at the time.
- ChatGPTplace 6
He had only three wins in his first 10 competitive games, but his first 10 league games are a different sample; the first-nine season comparison gives him 13 points in 2014–15 and 19 in 2015–16.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
Gathered a meager 13 points and shipped five goals to promoted Leicester City despite spending £150m, compounded by a humiliating 4-0 League Cup exit to MK Dons.
Source ↗
3 AIs put it here - 3
José Mourinho (2016-17)
15 points (W4 D3 L3), two fewer than Moyes after 10 games, including a 0-4 loss at Chelsea. The claim that he was unlucky by xG has no verifiable source.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 6 · ChatGPT: 8 · Gemini: 5
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 6
15 points from 10 (1.5 per game), including a 0-4 loss at Chelsea. Four games were drawn or lost after a 3-0 win start.
- ChatGPTplace 8
He took 15 points from his first 10 league games in the cited comparison, then won the inaugural Premier League title; the opening wobble was not a forecast of the season’s finish.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 5
Suffered the widest negative underperformance against underlying metrics in club history, generating +0.78 xGD per 90 but taking only 15 points after a 37-shot blank against Burnley.
3 AIs put it here - 4
David Moyes (2013-14)
17 points (W5 D2 L3), including a 1-4 loss at City. He scored more goals in his first 10 than Ferguson, Van Gaal or Mourinho did, and was still sacked in April.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 7 · ChatGPT: 4 · Gemini: 6
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 7
17 points from 10 (1.7 per game), a respectable total, yet it came with a 1-4 loss at City and was sacked in April.
- ChatGPTplace 4
A rough first six league games (three defeats) gave way to three wins in the next four: 17 points from 10, a better start than Mourinho’s 2016 league opening.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 6
Endured a brutal opening gauntlet that featured a 4-1 thrashing at Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion's first league victory at Old Trafford in 35 years.
3 AIs put it here - 5
Erik ten Hag (2022-23)
He lost his first two games 1-2 and 0-4, then won five of the next six for 19 points. Over his full tenure, one xG model says his results beat his chances.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 10 · ChatGPT: 2 · Gemini: 10
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 10
19 points from 10 (1.9 per game) after losing the first two games 1-2 and 0-4, then winning five of the next six.
- ChatGPTplace 2
Four wins and four defeats in the first nine league games left United 14th; his first 10 league games in charge began with a far stronger 19-point run, so the slump was not his initial managerial start.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 10
Became the first United boss since 1921 to lose his opening two league matches, conceding six goals inside 135 minutes before stabilizing with marquee home wins.
3 AIs put it here - 6
Ralf Rangnick (2021-22)
19 points from 10 with only one defeat, a solid opening. But his full interim spell averaged 1.54 points per game, the second-lowest in the Premier League era.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 9 · ChatGPT: 7 · Gemini: 9
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 9
19 points from 10 (1.9 per game), but only 2 wins in the next 5 of the 10 sandwiched around a loss to Wolves.
- ChatGPTplace 7
His first 10 league games earned 19 points, but his full league tenure averaged 1.54 points per game, second-lowest in the Premier League-era manager table cited by the league.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 9
Averaged under 1.4 goals per match and scraped 19 points despite passive attacking numbers, foreshadowing an abrupt European exit and dressing-room apathy.
3 AIs put it here - 7
Michael Carrick (2026-27 start)
The worst so far: 7 points from 7 games (1.0 per game). The six from six before that was United's lowest since 1986. Only 7 of 10 games played, and no 2026-27 xG found.
Included it: Claude, Gemini. Did not include: ChatGPT.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Gemini: 2
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 1
7 points from 7 league games (1.0 per game). ESPN says it is the club's lowest tally after six league games since 1986, and the run included a red card and a first-minute goal against in the Champions League.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 2
Beset by instant collapses, suffering a 1st-minute concession and a 6th-minute red card against Atlético Madrid as domestic defensive frailties spilled into Europe.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 8
Ole Gunnar Solskjær (2019-20 start)
Only 10 points from the first nine games and 13 from 10. Yet his first 10 games as manager, in 2018-19, brought 26, the best start on this page.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 3
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 5
13 points from 10 (1.3 per game): four draws, four goals scored in the opener against Chelsea and then a 1-2 home loss to Palace.
- ChatGPTplace 3
His 10-point first nine league games were worse than Ten Hag’s 2024–25 opening nine, yet Solskjær stayed and led United to third place.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 9
José Mourinho (2018-19 start)
14 points from the first nine and 17 from 10, with losses to Brighton, Spurs and West Ham. This slump, not his first season, led to his December sacking.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT. Did not include: Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 8 · ChatGPT: 5
What each AI noted 2
- Claudeplace 8
17 points from 10 (1.7 per game), with losses to Brighton, Spurs and West Ham. He was dismissed in December.
- ChatGPTplace 5
His first 10 league games in the 2016 tenure earned 15 points; the 2018–19 season-opening nine earned 14, but that later start ended with his dismissal.
Source ↗
2 AIs put it here - 10
Erik ten Hag (2024-25 start, sacked after 9 games)
11 points from 9. The season's 12 from 10 was United's lowest since 1986-87, and the team scored 7.8 goals fewer than its xG, the league's worst gap.
Included it: Claude. Did not include: ChatGPT, Gemini.In their lists: Claude: 3
What each AI noted 1
- Claudeplace 3
11 points from 9 (1.22 per game), 12 after 10 counting van Nistelrooy's first game. That is the club's lowest 10-game tally since 1986-87, and goals were 7.8 below expected.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
In the first 10 games of 2024-25, United scored 7.8 goals fewer than their xG, the worst gap in the league. Poor finishing, not a lack of chances, sank that start.
From 2014 to 2025, United took about 65 more points than their chances deserved. One xG model rates Ten Hag's results as lucky and Amorim's as harsher than his team's chances.
Sources disagree on Amorim. Kickest gives him 19 points from his first 10 league games, but the match results add up to 11, and the Premier League records his first 10 in all competitions as W4 D1 L5.
Carrick's numbers point both ways. United had 113 shots, the most in the league, for 5 points, and analysts call the chance quality poor. As interim in 2026 his xG was lower than Amorim's, yet his results were better.
03Questions people ask
What is Manchester United's worst start to a season?
In club history, United lost their first 12 league games in 1930-31 and took 8 points from 10 in 1986-87. The Premier League-era low is 12 points from 10 games in 2024-25.
Source ↗Is Michael Carrick leaving Manchester United?
No departure had been announced as of 19 October 2026. He is on a two-year deal but under heavy pressure after the 0-2 loss to Atlético and a 1-1 draw at Leeds, which leave him on 7 points from 7 league games.
Source ↗Was Amorim's start worse than Moyes and Van Gaal?
Yes. Amorim took 11 points from his first 10 league games, against 13 for Van Gaal and 17 for Moyes.
Why do sources give different numbers for United's worst start?
Some count a season's opening games and others a manager's first games in charge. For example, Solskjær's 2019-20 season began with 10 points from nine games, while his first 10 games as manager brought 26.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Worst Starts by a Manchester United Manager: Results Against the Underlying Numbers
2Why this topic
Putting results next to underlying numbers shows which United starts were really poor and which were only unlucky, across Moyes, Van Gaal, Mourinho, Solskjær, Amorim and Carrick.
3Where it applies
Manchester United, Premier League era (1992 to now), first 10 league games of each manager, with Champions League games noted
4What we looked at
- Points per game over the first 10 league games
- Expected-goals difference per game over the same games
- Gap between actual points and the points the xG data would predict
- Share of those games played with a player sent off or after conceding in the first 10 minutes
- Wikipedia season pages (match results) — Match-by-match league results, used to count the points in each manager's first 10 league games and in each season's first 10
- The Analyst (Opta) — Points after 10 league games across club history, and 2024-25 goals against expected goals (xG)
- Premier League — Each United manager's Premier League points per game over his whole tenure, and Amorim's first 10 games in all competitions
- Understat-based xG project (S. Chandra) — xG, xG against and expected points by manager from 2014-15 onward, with no data for earlier seasons
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Michael Carrick, 2026-27 permanent start (so far)
7 points from 7 league games (1.0 per game). ESPN says it is the club's lowest tally after six league games since 1986, and the run included a red card and a first-minute goal against in the Champions League.
Source ↗ - 2Rúben Amorim, 2024-25 (first 10 league games)
11 points from 10 (1.1 per game), with 14 goals scored and 17 conceded. He later called it the club's worst team in history.
- 3Erik ten Hag, 2024-25 (sacked after 9 league games)
11 points from 9 (1.22 per game), 12 after 10 counting van Nistelrooy's first game. That is the club's lowest 10-game tally since 1986-87, and goals were 7.8 below expected.
Source ↗ - 4Louis van Gaal, 2014-15
13 points from 10 (1.3 per game), including a 3-5 loss at Leicester. The Analyst records this as the club's second-lowest Premier League 10-game tally at the time.
- 5Ole Gunnar Solskjær, 2019-20 (first full-season start)
13 points from 10 (1.3 per game): four draws, four goals scored in the opener against Chelsea and then a 1-2 home loss to Palace.
- 6José Mourinho, 2016-17
15 points from 10 (1.5 per game), including a 0-4 loss at Chelsea. Four games were drawn or lost after a 3-0 win start.
- 7David Moyes, 2013-14
17 points from 10 (1.7 per game), a respectable total, yet it came with a 1-4 loss at City and was sacked in April.
- 8José Mourinho, 2018-19 (his last season start)
17 points from 10 (1.7 per game), with losses to Brighton, Spurs and West Ham. He was dismissed in December.
- 9Ralf Rangnick, 2021-22
19 points from 10 (1.9 per game), but only 2 wins in the next 5 of the 10 sandwiched around a loss to Wolves.
- 10Erik ten Hag, 2022-23
19 points from 10 (1.9 per game) after losing the first two games 1-2 and 0-4, then winning five of the next six.
What Claude noticed
United's 12 points after 10 league games in 2024-25 was their lowest in any league season since 1986-87, when Ron Atkinson's side had 8. The 2026-27 start after six games is said to be the lowest since 1986.
In 2024-25 United's goals were 7.8 below their expected goals, the worst gap in the league. The attack was unlucky or wasteful rather than missing chances.
Carrick's 2026 spell shows the other side: his first 12 league games produced 1.37 xG per game against Amorim's 1.70 in his last 12, yet results were much better.
🇺🇸 ChatGPT8 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Rúben Amorim — Manchester United, 2024–26
His full Premier League record ended at 1.23 points per game, the lowest among United managers in the Premier League era in the league’s comparison.
Source ↗ - 2Erik ten Hag — Manchester United, 2023–24 start
Four wins and four defeats in the first nine league games left United 14th; his first 10 league games in charge began with a far stronger 19-point run, so the slump was not his initial managerial start.
Source ↗ - 3Ole Gunnar Solskjær — Manchester United, 2019–20 start
His 10-point first nine league games were worse than Ten Hag’s 2024–25 opening nine, yet Solskjær stayed and led United to third place.
Source ↗ - 4David Moyes — Manchester United, 2013–14
A rough first six league games (three defeats) gave way to three wins in the next four: 17 points from 10, a better start than Mourinho’s 2016 league opening.
Source ↗ - 5José Mourinho — Manchester United, 2018–19 start
His first 10 league games in the 2016 tenure earned 15 points; the 2018–19 season-opening nine earned 14, but that later start ended with his dismissal.
Source ↗ - 6Louis van Gaal — Manchester United, 2014–16
He had only three wins in his first 10 competitive games, but his first 10 league games are a different sample; the first-nine season comparison gives him 13 points in 2014–15 and 19 in 2015–16.
Source ↗ - 7Ralf Rangnick — Manchester United, 2021–22
His first 10 league games earned 19 points, but his full league tenure averaged 1.54 points per game, second-lowest in the Premier League-era manager table cited by the league.
Source ↗ - 8Alex Ferguson — Manchester United, 1992–93 Premier League start
He took 15 points from his first 10 league games in the cited comparison, then won the inaugural Premier League title; the opening wobble was not a forecast of the season’s finish.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
The answer depends on what “start” means: Amorim’s first 10 in all competitions were 4-1-5, while Kickest reports 19 points in his first 10 league matches; mixing those samples would reverse the story.
Season starts and manager starts tell different stories. Solskjær’s first nine games of 2019–20 brought 10 points, yet his first 10 league games in charge in 2018–19 brought 26.
Across the 2014–25 period analyzed, the xG project estimates United earned about 65 more points than their chances merited; it judges Ten Hag’s team luckier and Amorim’s results harsher than their chances.
The current Michael Carrick question is premature for this exact ranking: current reporting says he has six league fixtures in this season’s early run, short of the requested 10-game sample.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1Ruben Amorim (2024)
Won just 8 points from 30, becoming the first Manchester United manager since Walter Crickmer in 1932 to lose 5 of his opening 10 matches in all competitions.
Source ↗ - 2Michael Carrick (2026)
Beset by instant collapses, suffering a 1st-minute concession and a 6th-minute red card against Atlético Madrid as domestic defensive frailties spilled into Europe.
Source ↗ - 3Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (Permanent Tenure, 2019)
Crashed from caretaker euphoria to securing only 11 points in his first 10 league matches after signing his permanent contract, crashing out of top-four contention.
- 4Louis van Gaal (2014)
Gathered a meager 13 points and shipped five goals to promoted Leicester City despite spending £150m, compounded by a humiliating 4-0 League Cup exit to MK Dons.
Source ↗ - 5Jose Mourinho (2016)
Suffered the widest negative underperformance against underlying metrics in club history, generating +0.78 xGD per 90 but taking only 15 points after a 37-shot blank against Burnley.
- 6David Moyes (2013)
Endured a brutal opening gauntlet that featured a 4-1 thrashing at Manchester City and West Bromwich Albion's first league victory at Old Trafford in 35 years.
- 7Alex Ferguson (1992–93 Premier League)
Sat 10th in the table in late October after losing three of his opening ten matches, needing the emergency November purchase of Eric Cantona to ignite a title comeback.
- 8Ryan Giggs (2014 Caretaker)
Delivered United's first home defeat against Sunderland since 1968 across an inconsistent four-match audition that yielded only two victories.
- 9Ralf Rangnick (2021–22)
Averaged under 1.4 goals per match and scraped 19 points despite passive attacking numbers, foreshadowing an abrupt European exit and dressing-room apathy.
- 10Erik ten Hag (2022)
Became the first United boss since 1921 to lose his opening two league matches, conceding six goals inside 135 minutes before stabilizing with marquee home wins.