National clearance jumped from a 52.3% low in 2022 to 68.8% in 2025, the largest one-year rise on record, as murders fell about 18%.
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Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Murder Clearance Rate by City 2025: Top 10 Big US Cities
San Jose police cleared every homicide from 2022 through 2025 with no exceptional clearances, while Washington's 85% sits beside a report that only about a third of its 2025 killings ended in an arrest.
- No. 1: San Jose, California
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
San Jose, California
100% cleared four years running (35, 36, 29 and 26 cases, 2022–25) with zero exceptional clearances. Every case is an arrest, though at about 30 killings a year one case moves the rate about four points.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 1 · DeepSeek: 1
2 AIs put it here - 2
Las Vegas, Nevada (LVMPD)
93% of 2025 murders cleared against 69% nationally, and on real volume (90–94 murders). The figures range from 93% to 98% depending on the date and counting rule.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 2 · DeepSeek: 2
2 AIs put it here - 3
Washington, D.C.
MPD reports 85% for 2025, up from 52% in 2023. Fox 5 found just over a third of 2025 killings closed by arrest, so this ranking is disputed.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 3 · DeepSeek: 8
2 AIs put it here - 4
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
82% at year-end, up from 41.8% in 2021, but the 82% includes older cases. Only about 60% of the 222 killings committed in 2025 were solved.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 4 · DeepSeek: 7
2 AIs put it here - 5
Chicago, Illinois
71.2% in 2025 is a 13-year high, up from 56% in 2024. One analysis says only 23–27% of cleared cases ended in an arrest and charges.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 6 · DeepSeek: see list
2 AIs put it here - 6
Baltimore, Maryland
65% in 2025, up from 40.3% in 2020 as homicides fell 31%. It is slightly below the 2024 rate, which sources give as 68.2% or 69%.
Included it: Grok, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta.In their lists: Grok: 8 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 2
- Grokplace 8
65% clearance amid a 31% drop in homicides.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
65% in 2025, up from 40.3% in 2020, with a mid-year rate of 64% and 120 arrests for homicides and shootings.
2 AIs put it here - 7
Seattle, Washington
32 of 37 homicides cleared in 2025 (86%), up from 57% a year earlier as killings fell from 58. Only one source gives this figure.
Included it: DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Grok.In their lists: DeepSeek: 4
What each AI noted 1
- DeepSeekplace 4
32 of 37 homicides cleared, an 86% rate that jumped from 57% the year before.
1 AIs put it hereno source given - 8
Minneapolis, Minnesota
80% of about 64 homicides cleared in 2025, up from 65% in 2024. One source gives the figure and it does not split arrests from exceptional clearances.
Included it: DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Grok.In their lists: DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 1
- DeepSeekplace 5
Eight in ten homicides cleared in a city with about 64 killings — the highest rate in recent memory.
1 AIs put it hereno source given - 9
New Orleans, Louisiana
72.4% in 2025, up from 41.7% in 2021, the biggest rebound in this list. NOPD claims 98% so far in 2026, but only one source gives these figures.
Included it: Grok. Did not include: Meta, DeepSeek.In their lists: Grok: 9
What each AI noted 1
- Grokplace 9
Rose from ~42% in 2021 to 72% in 2025 and 98% YTD 2026.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here - 10
Los Angeles, California (LAPD)
LAPD published 101%, but only 156 of 2025's 230 killings (68%) were cleared that year. The other 78 clearances were older cases, so it ranks on the 68%.
Included it: Grok. Did not include: Meta, DeepSeek.In their lists: Grok: 5
What each AI noted 1
- Grokplace 5
Published 101% but only 68% of the year’s 230 killings cleared same-year; the rest were older cases.
Source ↗
1 AIs put it here
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
The three national 2025 figures differ by counting rule: CCJ 69%, MAP 68.8% (arrest-based) and the FBI CDE analysis 66.5%.
Clearance is not conviction. MAP estimates about 352,000 homicides have gone uncleared since 1965, and exceptional means such as a dead suspect lift some published rates.
Houston reported almost 90% for 2024 but had not published a same-year rate for its 272 homicides in 2025, so it is left off this list.
03Questions people ask
what is a homicide clearance rate
It is the share of recorded homicides police close in a year, either by arrest and charge or by 'exceptional means' (for example, the suspect died). Because older cases count in the year they close, it can top 100%, as in Los Angeles (101%) in 2025.
Source ↗which city has the highest murder clearance rate
Among big US cities, San Jose cleared 100% of homicides each year from 2022 to 2025 with no exceptional clearances. Las Vegas follows at about 93% for 2025.
Source ↗what percentage of cold cases get solved
No single national cold-case solve rate exists. The national homicide clearance rate was 69% in 2025, up from 50% in 2021, and MAP counts about 352,000 homicides left uncleared since 1965.
Source ↗why do clearance rates differ between police and independent counts
Police often count older cases and exceptional closures. In Philadelphia that turned about 60% of 2025 killings solved into an 82% year-end rate.
Source ↗04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 Big US Cities Where a Murder Is Most Likely to Be Solved: the Police Department's Figure Against Independent Counts
2Why this topic
The reader sees each city's own solve rate next to the independent count of the same cases, and how the counting rule moves a city up or down the list. Neither number alone shows that.
3Where it applies
United States, large cities
4What we looked at
- Homicide clearance rate for the latest full year as the department publishes it
- The same city's rate as reported to the FBI and as calculated independently by the Murder Accountability Project
- How each count is made: clearances by arrest against 'exceptional means', and crime-year counting against closing-year counting
- Change since the 2020–2021 low point, read alongside murder volume per 100,000 residents
- Police departments' own homicide statistics (SJPD, LVMPD, MPD, PPD, LAPD and others) — Each department's own clearance rate for the year. It often counts prior-year cases and exceptional means, so it
- FBI Crime Data Explorer — Standardized clearance percentages that agencies report to the FBI. Jeff Asher's analysis of these figures puts the 2025 national rate at 66.5%.
- Murder Accountability Project — Independent counts of solved and unsolved homicides by agency, with arrests shown apart from other clearances. Its 2025 national estimate is 68.8%.
- Washington Post, 'Where Murders Go Unsolved' — Share of homicides ending in an arrest, by neighborhood, in 50 large cities (2007–2017 data). The 50-city arrest rate was 49%.
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Meta, Grok, DeepSeek.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Grok10 places · 4 notes
The same question, answered by Grok alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1San Jose (2022–2025)
100% clearance for four straight years—all by arrest, none exceptional recently—in a city of 1 million averaging ~33 homicides.
Source ↗ - 2Las Vegas (LVMPD, 2025)
93–96.8% clearance on ~90–100 murders, among the highest for a major metro and steady for years.
Source ↗ - 3Washington, DC (2025)
85% clearance as murders fell sharply from pandemic peaks.
Source ↗ - 4Philadelphia (2025)
82% (some reports 86–90%)—up from 42% in 2021—as volume dropped and priors were cleared.
Source ↗ - 5Los Angeles (LAPD, 2025)
Published 101% but only 68% of the year’s 230 killings cleared same-year; the rest were older cases.
Source ↗ - 6Chicago (2025)
71.2%—a 13-year high—after years in the 30–50% range.
Source ↗ - 7Pittsburgh (2025)
69% of 35 homicides cleared as of early 2026.
Source ↗ - 8Baltimore (2025)
65% clearance amid a 31% drop in homicides.
Source ↗ - 9New Orleans (2025–2026)
Rose from ~42% in 2021 to 72% in 2025 and 98% YTD 2026.
Source ↗ - 10Houston / New York range (2025)
Cities in the 65–79% band reported by The Trace, rebounding with national trends.
Source ↗
What Grok noticed
National clearance rebounded from a 2022 low of 52.3% to 68.8% in 2025—the largest one-year jump on record and the highest since the late 1980s—as murders fell ~18%.
Rates over 100% (LA) or large jumps (Philly) often reflect closing older cases in low-volume years rather than same-year arrests alone.
San Jose’s perfect recent record came with zero exceptional clearances, so nearly every case put a living suspect in custody.
MAP estimates ~352,000 uncleared homicides since 1965; clearance is not conviction, and exceptional means (suspect death, etc.) inflate some published rates.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1San Jose, California (2025)
126 homicide cases since 2022, 126 cleared — and zero exceptional declarations in 2022-25.
Source ↗ - 2Las Vegas, Nevada (2025)
93% by September, 95% by late December, and 90 murders — a high-clearance city that also carries real volume.
Source ↗ - 3San Francisco, California (2025)
A 125% clearance rate is not a typo: 28 killings, 34 clearances, because old cases count in the closing year.
- 4Seattle, Washington (2025)
32 of 37 homicides cleared, an 86% rate that jumped from 57% the year before.
- 5Minneapolis, Minnesota (2025)
Eight in ten homicides cleared in a city with about 64 killings — the highest rate in recent memory.
- 6Nashville, Tennessee (2025)
78.5% by late September, with only nine of the year's homicide cases still open.
Source ↗ - 7Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (2025)
86-91% monthly, but year-end 82% includes old cases and only about 60% of 2025 killings were solved.
Source ↗ - 8Washington, D.C. (2025)
MPD's 85% year-end rate collides with a report that only about a third of 2025 killings were closed by arrest.
Source ↗ - 9Baltimore, Maryland (2025)
65% in 2025, up from 40.3% in 2020, with a mid-year rate of 64% and 120 arrests for homicides and shootings.
- 10Houston, Texas (2024-2025)
Almost 90% in 2024, but 2025's 272 homicides still lack a published same-year clearance rate.
Source ↗
What DeepSeek noticed
San Jose is the rare 100% city where the number is not being propped up by exceptional means: it recorded zero exceptional declarations from 2022 through 2025. The caveat is volume — 26 homicides in 2025 — so one case swings the rate by nearly four points.
The national numbers are converging but not identical: CCJ says 69% in 2025, MAP's arrest-based estimate says 68.8%, and the FBI CDE analysis says 66.5%. The spread is a counting-rule story, not just a police-performance story.
Philadelphia shows how closing-year counting flatters a city: monthly rates of 86-91% became an 82% year-end figure, but only about 60% of the 222 homicides committed in 2025 were solved by year-end.