'Since 2007' or 'since 2002'? The 5.24% close of Oct 9, 2026 is below June 2007's 5.26%. But the Sept 30, 2026 close of 5.297% cleared it, making that peak the highest since May 2002.
Back to the trend of the day: US holiday: shares traded, banks shut, government borrowing costs near 24-year high
Poly Rating · from the trend of the day
Highest 10 Year Treasury Yield in History, 1980-2026
A 7.40% mortgage in 2026 takes an estimated third of a typical household's income, more than the 10% loans of 1990 did, because home prices have outrun pay.
- No. 1: 1981 10-year Treasury yield peak (15.84%)
- 10 places
01Final list
The leading AIs built their own top-ten lists independently. Above is one combined result that is easy to check: every place has a reason, the AIs that included it and, where the AIs gave one, a source.
Order: from most to least AI agreement.
A bright badge means this AI put the entry on its list. A dim badge means it did not.
- 1
1981 10-year Treasury yield peak (15.84%)
Still the worst by far: an 18.63% loan took an estimated 52% of household income. Using family income or new-home prices puts it at 44–46%.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 1 · Meta: 1 · ChatGPT: 1 · Gemini: 1 · DeepSeek: 1
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 1
With an 18%+ mortgage, a 20%-down payment on the median home ate about 46% of median income, far more than at any later peak.
- Metaplace 1
15.84% 10-year and 18.63% mortgage: on a $61,795 home, 20% down meant $766 P&I on $21,020 median family income — 44% of income
- ChatGPTplace 1
The same year Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage average reached 18.63%—a far harsher borrowing backdrop than today’s 7.40%.
- Geminiplace 1
A buyer needed more than half of median family income just to pay monthly principal and interest on an ordinary $66,400 house.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 1
An 18.63% mortgage on a $66,400 home cost $828 a month — 52% of median household income.
5 AIs put it here - 2
1984 10-year Treasury yield peak (about 14%)
A second spike to about 14% pushed loans to 14–15%. The estimated payment took 36–38% of income on a $72,400 home.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 2 · Meta: 3 · ChatGPT: 3 · Gemini: see list · DeepSeek: 2
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 2
A second spike to about 14% pushed the mortgage to nearly 15%, so the payment still took more than a third of income.
- Metaplace 3
13.99% 10-year peak in 1984 with ∼14.5% mortgage — second-highest rate ever but home price 3.2x income vs 5x today
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 3
Even after the early-1980s rate shock, the annual home-payment burden remained high enough to qualify as a serious affordability stress episode.
- Gemini
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - DeepSeekplace 2
A 13.9% mortgage still consumed 36.5% of income — the second-heaviest burden since 1980.
5 AIs put it here - 3
October 2023 10-year Treasury yield peak (5%)
The yield was 11 points below 1981, yet a 7.63% loan on a $394,100 home took an estimated 33% of income, close to the 1980s squeeze.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 3 · Meta: 4 · ChatGPT: 9 · Gemini: 3 · DeepSeek: 3
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 3
A yield about 11 points below 1981's still left a 7.6% mortgage that took roughly a third of median income, close to the 1980s squeeze.
- Metaplace 4
4.99% 10-year closed the 2023 cycle — mortgage 7.79% peak drove income needed to $110,382 record
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 9
Freddie Mac’s October 2023 mortgage rate reached 7.79%, above the 7.40% October 2026 reading, even though the Treasury yield comparison is a separate measure.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 3
Home prices running at 5.2 times income made 7.8% mortgages feel as punishing to a family budget as double-digit rates did in the late 1980s.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 3
The 10-year briefly topped 5%, but a 7.63% mortgage on a $394,100 home took 33.2% of income.
5 AIs put it here - 4
2026 10-year Treasury yield peak (5.30%)
An estimated 32.6% of income at 7.40%, level with 2023. The ~5.30% close cleared 2007's 5.26%, but October 9's 5.24% close did not.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 4 · Meta: 2 · ChatGPT: 10 · Gemini: see list · DeepSeek: 4
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 4
The yield closed above the 2007 high, and a 7.4% mortgage puts the payment near 33% of income, at 2023 levels.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 2
5.31% close above 2007 peak of 5.26% — mortgage at 7.40% on record $440,600 home needs 36% of $106,800 median income
Source ↗ - ChatGPTplace 10
The 5.24% October 9 close is near a 24-year high, but the June 2007 5.26% close puts the ‘since 2002’ headline in doubt.
Source ↗ - Gemini
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - DeepSeekplace 4
At 7.40%, the payment on a $429,100 median home is 32.6% of income — worse than 2007 despite a lower yield.
5 AIs put it here - 5
June 2007 10-year Treasury yield peak (5.26%)
Nearly the same yield as 2026, but the payment took an estimated 27% of income versus 33%, and federal interest 9% of revenue versus 18.5%.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 8 · Meta: 5 · ChatGPT: 7 · Gemini: 8 · DeepSeek: 9
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 8
A 5.26% yield is one of the lowest peaks on this list, yet home prices put the payment at about 31% of income.
Source ↗ - Metaplace 5
5.26% was the 2007 intraday peak — why 5.24% is not 'highest since 2002' but since 2007 until Oct 2026 cleared it
- ChatGPTplace 7
The June 2007 10-year yield close was about 5.26%, so a 5.24% 2026 close is not the highest since 2002 on a closing-yield comparison.
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 8
Treasury yields closed at 5.26%–5.32% just months before the Lehman-era crash, setting the true multi-decade benchmark that modern commentators frequently mislabel.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 9
The 10-year closed at 5.26%, but the 6.74% mortgage on a $219,000 home took only 27.1% of income.
5 AIs put it here - 6
1994 bond massacre 10-year yield peak (about 8%)
Mortgages jumped to 9.2%, but a $111,300 home kept the estimated burden near 27%. Estimates range from 25% to 32%.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 6 · Meta: 6 · ChatGPT: 5 · Gemini: 7 · DeepSeek: 8
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 6
Mortgage rates near 9.2% on incomes of only about $32k kept the burden at 32%, higher than at the 2007 peak.
- Metaplace 6
8.03% 10-year after Fed doubled rates — mortgage jumped from 7% to 9% in 12 months
- ChatGPTplace 5
A rate comparison across decades can reverse when prices and incomes are included; yield rank is not affordability rank.
- Geminiplace 7
The Fed abruptly doubled policy rates in 12 months, wiping out bondholders while homebuyer payments surged to 27.1% of median wages.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 8
The 1994 bond rout pushed mortgages to 9.2%, but a $111,300 home kept the burden near 27%.
5 AIs put it here - 7
January 2000 dot-com 10-year yield peak (6.79%)
An 8.2% mortgage sounds steep, yet a $143,600 home left an estimated 25% burden, the lightest of the ten. Federal interest took about 11% of revenue.
Included it: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 9 · Meta: 7 · ChatGPT: 6 · Gemini: 9 · DeepSeek: 10
What each AI noted 5
- Claudeplace 9
The yield of about 6.8% gave an 8.2% mortgage, and federal interest took only about 11% of revenue, the lightest weight on this list.
- Metaplace 7
6.79% 10-year while Nasdaq peaked — mortgage 8.5% but price-to-income only 3.4x
- ChatGPTplace 6
The 2000s home-price cycle makes a peak-week comparison sensitive to whether the basket is existing homes, new homes or a typical-value index.
- Geminiplace 9
Even with fixed mortgages hitting 8.64%, federal budget surpluses kept the national debt interest share at a modest 11.1% of tax revenues.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 10
An 8.2% mortgage sounds severe, but a $143,600 home left the burden at 24.6% — the lightest of the ten.
5 AIs put it here - 8
October 1987 10-year Treasury yield peak (10.23%)
A yield just above 10% before Black Monday meant an 11%+ loan taking an estimated 30–31% of income, slightly lighter than today.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 7 · Meta: 8 · Gemini: 4 · DeepSeek: 5
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 7
A 10%+ Treasury yield brought a mortgage of about 11%, and the payment took about 31% of income.
- Metaplace 8
10.23% 10-year just before Black Monday — mortgage 11% but incomes rising fast kept burden lower than 1981
Source ↗ - Geminiplace 4
Yields punching through 10.2% on the Friday before Black Monday triggered an equity panic and locked home buyers into 11.6% loans.
Source ↗ - DeepSeekplace 5
An 11% mortgage on an $85,600 home ate 30.0% of income — the pre-Black-Monday squeeze.
4 AIs put it here - 9
1990 10-year Treasury yield peak (about 9.1%)
A 10.2% loan took an estimated 28% of income, a quarter less than today's 7.40%. Federal interest already took nearly 18% of revenue.
Included it: Claude, Meta, Gemini, DeepSeek. Did not include: ChatGPT, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 10 · Meta: 9 · Gemini: see list · DeepSeek: 7
What each AI noted 4
- Claudeplace 10
A yield of about 3.2% and a mortgage near 4.9% gave the lightest payment burden in this set, about 26% of income.
- Metaplace 9
9.02% 10-year with recession starting — last time payment share rose before long 1990s affordability gain
- Gemini
Named differently in its own list: open the full list.
see list - DeepSeekplace 7
A 10.2% mortgage on a $96,400 home took 27.6% of income — and federal interest was already 17.8% of revenue.
4 AIs put it hereno source given - 10
March 1989 10-year Treasury yield peak (9.53%)
A largely forgotten 11% loan on a $94,000 home took an estimated 30% of income. Claude's estimate is 33%.
Included it: Claude, ChatGPT, DeepSeek. Did not include: Meta, Gemini, Wenxin.In their lists: Claude: 5 · ChatGPT: 4 · DeepSeek: 6
What each AI noted 3
- Claudeplace 5
With the yield only about 9.5%, the mortgage was still 11%, so the payment took about a third of income.
- ChatGPTplace 4
A long-term-yield peak alone cannot tell you the monthly payment burden without matching the week’s mortgage rate to a home price and income observation.
- DeepSeekplace 6
A forgotten 11% mortgage on a $94,000 home still took 29.7% of income.
3 AIs put it hereno source given
02Worth knowing
What the AIs noticed while building the list.
Federal interest took a record 18.5% of revenue in FY2025, above the 1991 peak of 18.4%. It was only about 9% in 2007, at almost the same 10-year yield.
Rate rank is not burden rank: 2026's 7.40% loan takes an estimated 33% of income, more than the 10–11% loans of 1987–1990 (28–31%), because home prices grew faster than incomes.
The mortgage rate peaked higher in this cycle in October 2023, at 7.79%, than at today's 7.40%.
NAR's affordability index uses median family income (which runs higher), 20% down and a 25% qualifying ratio. Its burdens look lighter than household-income estimates and are not the same measure.
03Questions people ask
What is the highest 10 year treasury yield in history?
15.84% at the close on Sept 30, 1981, during Paul Volcker's fight against inflation. The highest recent close is about 5.30% on Sept 30, 2026.
Is 5 percent mortgage rate high?
Not by history: the long-run Freddie Mac average is roughly 7.6–7.7%, and the record is 18.63% (1981). It is still far above the 2.65% low of January 2021.
Source ↗Is 6 percent a high mortgage rate?
It is middle of the road, below mid-2007's roughly 6.7% and the long-run average. Today's high home prices still make the payment heavy.
Is 7 percent a high mortgage rate?
Near the long-run average but high for the post-2008 era. At 7.40% in October 2026, the payment on a median home takes an estimated third of median household income, versus about half in 1981.
04How we counted
In plain words, no formulas.
1The question
Top 10 US Long-Term Rate Peaks Since 1980, Ranked by How Heavy the Home Loan Really Felt
2Why this topic
It puts the yield history, the mortgage-rate history and price-to-income in one ranking, so the reader sees that the same rate can mean very different burdens. It answers what people are typing today: 'is 7 percent a high mortgage rate?'
3Where it applies
United States, 1980 to 2026, one entry per peak in the 10-year yield
4What we looked at
- Peak 10-year Treasury yield in each episode. Check whether 5.24% really is the highest since 2002: in June 2007 the yield closed near 5.26%, so the correct label may be 'since 2007'.
- Average 30-year fixed home-loan rate in the same week
- Monthly payment on a median-priced home as a share of median household income (the ranking order)
- Federal interest costs as a share of federal revenue at that moment
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), DGS10 — Daily 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (closing values; intraday highs run a few hundredths higher)
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (FRED MORTGAGE30US) — Weekly average 30-year fixed rate since 1971; methodology changed in November 2022
- NAR / HUD historical housing tables — Median existing-home price per year. Used with Census income to estimate principal and interest at 20% down as a share of income. No published table ranks peaks t
- US Census Bureau, historical household income — Median household income in current dollars by year (the denominator of the burden)
5Who ranked
The leading AIs, each building its own list of ten independently and naming a source for every place: Claude, Meta, ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Wenxin.
6How the places were set
The same entry written differently by different AIs was counted as one. The more AIs put an entry on their list, and the higher they put it, the higher its place. "AI agreement" shows how many of the AIs had it on their own list. Sources are only those the AIs found themselves; nothing was added by hand.
05Each AI's own list
🇺🇸 Claude10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Claude alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 11981 bond-market peak (the highest 10-year Treasury yield in history)
With an 18%+ mortgage, a 20%-down payment on the median home ate about 46% of median income, far more than at any later peak.
- 21984 yield peak (June 1984)
A second spike to about 14% pushed the mortgage to nearly 15%, so the payment still took more than a third of income.
- 3October 2023 yield peak (5% 10-year)
A yield about 11 points below 1981's still left a 7.6% mortgage that took roughly a third of median income, close to the 1980s squeeze.
- 4September-October 2026 peak (5.30% close, highest since 2002)
The yield closed above the 2007 high, and a 7.4% mortgage puts the payment near 33% of income, at 2023 levels.
Source ↗ - 51989-1990 yield peaks (March 1989 and April 1990)
With the yield only about 9.5%, the mortgage was still 11%, so the payment took about a third of income.
- 61994 bond crash (November 1994)
Mortgage rates near 9.2% on incomes of only about $32k kept the burden at 32%, higher than at the 2007 peak.
- 71987 peak (October 1987, just before the crash)
A 10%+ Treasury yield brought a mortgage of about 11%, and the payment took about 31% of income.
- 8June 2007 peak (5.26% close, before the housing bust)
A 5.26% yield is one of the lowest peaks on this list, yet home prices put the payment at about 31% of income.
Source ↗ - 92000 dot-com peak (January 2000)
The yield of about 6.8% gave an 8.2% mortgage, and federal interest took only about 11% of revenue, the lightest weight on this list.
- 10November 2018 peak (3.24%)
A yield of about 3.2% and a mortgage near 4.9% gave the lightest payment burden in this set, about 26% of income.
What Claude noticed
The 2007 closing high was 5.26% on June 12, 2007. The Sept 30, 2026 close of 5.297% cleared it, so the right label is 'highest since May 2002' (5.32% close on May 14, 2002), not 'since 2007'.
The federal interest burden is now heavier than in any earlier peak here. Net interest took a record 18.5% of revenue in FY2025, above 18.4% in 1991, and CBO projects it rising to 25.8% by 2036.
Ranked by burden rather than rate, a 5% yield in 2023 and 2026 weighs on buyers like 9-10% yields did in 1987-1990, because prices have grown faster than incomes.
🇺🇸 Meta10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by Meta alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1September 30, 1981 — Volcker Peak
15.84% 10-year and 18.63% mortgage: on a $61,795 home, 20% down meant $766 P&I on $21,020 median family income — 44% of income
- 2October 5, 2026 — 24-Year High
5.31% close above 2007 peak of 5.26% — mortgage at 7.40% on record $440,600 home needs 36% of $106,800 median income
Source ↗ - 3June 1984 — Reagan Deficit Peak
13.99% 10-year peak in 1984 with ∼14.5% mortgage — second-highest rate ever but home price 3.2x income vs 5x today
Source ↗ - 4October 19, 2023 — Inflation Peak
4.99% 10-year closed the 2023 cycle — mortgage 7.79% peak drove income needed to $110,382 record
Source ↗ - 5June 12, 2007 — Pre-Crisis Peak
5.26% was the 2007 intraday peak — why 5.24% is not 'highest since 2002' but since 2007 until Oct 2026 cleared it
- 6November 7, 1994 — Bond Massacre
8.03% 10-year after Fed doubled rates — mortgage jumped from 7% to 9% in 12 months
- 7January 20, 2000 — Dot-Com Peak
6.79% 10-year while Nasdaq peaked — mortgage 8.5% but price-to-income only 3.4x
- 8October 1987 — Crash Peak
10.23% 10-year just before Black Monday — mortgage 11% but incomes rising fast kept burden lower than 1981
Source ↗ - 9June 1990 — S&L Peak
9.02% 10-year with recession starting — last time payment share rose before long 1990s affordability gain
- 10November 8, 2018 — Post-Crisis Tightening Peak
3.24% 10-year was cycle high of 2010s — mortgage 4.94% felt light at 23% of income, lightest of the 10 peaks
What Meta noticed
The 10-year closed at 5.31% on Oct 5 2026 above its 2007 peak of 5.26% on Jun 12 2007, and intraday hit 5.304% Sep 30 2026 — first time since May 2002 that the benchmark cleared 5.3%
Mortgage rates tracked the 10-year: Freddie Mac PMMS hit 18.63% week of Oct 9 1981, still the all-time high, vs 7.40% Oct 8 2026 — but $440,600 median price makes the dollar payment heavier today than 1981 in real terms
NAR's payment burden rose from 22.6% on a $160,700 home in the early era to 36% of $106,800 median income for a $434,900 home in 2026 — despite rates half of 1981 levels
🇺🇸 ChatGPT10 places · 3 notes
The same question, answered by ChatGPT alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 11981 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
The same year Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage average reached 18.63%—a far harsher borrowing backdrop than today’s 7.40%.
- 21982 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
The 1980s mortgage squeeze combined high rates with a much lower home price; the available annual affordability benchmark is already 31.3% of family income.
- 31984 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
Even after the early-1980s rate shock, the annual home-payment burden remained high enough to qualify as a serious affordability stress episode.
- 41989 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
A long-term-yield peak alone cannot tell you the monthly payment burden without matching the week’s mortgage rate to a home price and income observation.
- 51994 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
A rate comparison across decades can reverse when prices and incomes are included; yield rank is not affordability rank.
- 62000 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
The 2000s home-price cycle makes a peak-week comparison sensitive to whether the basket is existing homes, new homes or a typical-value index.
- 72007 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
The June 2007 10-year yield close was about 5.26%, so a 5.24% 2026 close is not the highest since 2002 on a closing-yield comparison.
Source ↗ - 82010 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
A lower Treasury yield can still coincide with a meaningful home-payment burden if prices are elevated; the required matched series is not supplied by the yield series.
- 92023 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
Freddie Mac’s October 2023 mortgage rate reached 7.79%, above the 7.40% October 2026 reading, even though the Treasury yield comparison is a separate measure.
Source ↗ - 102026 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield peak
The 5.24% October 9 close is near a 24-year high, but the June 2007 5.26% close puts the ‘since 2002’ headline in doubt.
Source ↗
What ChatGPT noticed
A 5.24% 10-year close does not beat the cited June 2007 5.26% close; ‘highest since 2007’ is the safer closing-yield phrasing, while October 1, 2026 had an intraday high reported at 5.344%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% in October 2026, but the October 2023 peak was reported at 7.79%. The 10-year Treasury and mortgage rate are related benchmarks, not interchangeable measurements.
NAR’s affordability index uses median family income and a 20% down payment; the requested median-household-income burden is a different calculation and should not be presented as NAR’s published index.
🇺🇸 Gemini10 places · 1 notes
The same question, answered by Gemini alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 1September 1981 Rate Peak (United States)
A buyer needed more than half of median family income just to pay monthly principal and interest on an ordinary $66,400 house.
Source ↗ - 2May 1984 Tightening Wave (United States)
Paul Volcker's second inflation defense forced borrowing costs back to 14.7%, eating nearly 40 cents of every earned dollar.
Source ↗ - 3October 2023–2026 Yield Squeeze (United States)
Home prices running at 5.2 times income made 7.8% mortgages feel as punishing to a family budget as double-digit rates did in the late 1980s.
Source ↗ - 4October 1987 Pre-Crash Crest (United States)
Yields punching through 10.2% on the Friday before Black Monday triggered an equity panic and locked home buyers into 11.6% loans.
Source ↗ - 5June 2006 Pre-Crisis Peak (United States)
Home valuations reached peak speculative mania right as 10-year yields reached 5.25%, pushing payments past 28% before subprime cracked.
Source ↗ - 6May 1990 Oil Shock High (United States)
A late-cycle economic expansion pushed sovereign borrowing costs above 9% and national debt interest devoured a staggering 17.9% of federal taxes.
Source ↗ - 7November 1994 Great Bond Massacre (United States)
The Fed abruptly doubled policy rates in 12 months, wiping out bondholders while homebuyer payments surged to 27.1% of median wages.
Source ↗ - 8June 2007 Pre-GFC Turning Point (United States)
Treasury yields closed at 5.26%–5.32% just months before the Lehman-era crash, setting the true multi-decade benchmark that modern commentators frequently mislabel.
Source ↗ - 9May 2000 Dot-Com Peak (United States)
Even with fixed mortgages hitting 8.64%, federal budget surpluses kept the national debt interest share at a modest 11.1% of tax revenues.
Source ↗ - 10November 2018 Fed Tightening Crest (United States)
The highest rate peak of the post-2008 decade saw 10-year yields hit 3.24%, yet loan servicing required barely 20.9% of median family earnings.
What Gemini noticed
The price-to-income multiplier overturned rate history: in 1981, a median home was priced at 3.5 times annual median income, meaning an 18.6% rate was required to reach a 52% payment burden; by 2023–2026, home prices exceeded 5.1 times income, making a 7.8% mortgage demand over 35% of income.
🇨🇳 DeepSeek10 places · 2 notes
The same question, answered by DeepSeek alone. The final list above combines all the AIs.
- 11981 Treasury yield peak (Volcker era)
An 18.63% mortgage on a $66,400 home cost $828 a month — 52% of median household income.
- 21984 Treasury yield peak
A 13.9% mortgage still consumed 36.5% of income — the second-heaviest burden since 1980.
- 32023 Treasury yield peak
The 10-year briefly topped 5%, but a 7.63% mortgage on a $394,100 home took 33.2% of income.
- 42026 Treasury yield peak
At 7.40%, the payment on a $429,100 median home is 32.6% of income — worse than 2007 despite a lower yield.
- 51987 Treasury yield peak
An 11% mortgage on an $85,600 home ate 30.0% of income — the pre-Black-Monday squeeze.
- 61989 Treasury yield peak
A forgotten 11% mortgage on a $94,000 home still took 29.7% of income.
- 71990 Treasury yield peak
A 10.2% mortgage on a $96,400 home took 27.6% of income — and federal interest was already 17.8% of revenue.
- 81994 Treasury yield peak
The 1994 bond rout pushed mortgages to 9.2%, but a $111,300 home kept the burden near 27%.
- 92007 Treasury yield peak
The 10-year closed at 5.26%, but the 6.74% mortgage on a $219,000 home took only 27.1% of income.
- 102000 Treasury yield peak
An 8.2% mortgage sounds severe, but a $143,600 home left the burden at 24.6% — the lightest of the ten.
What DeepSeek noticed
Federal interest costs are the mirror image: they were only 9.2% of revenue in 2007 but are roughly 19% in 2026, even though the 10-year yield is similar.
The 2026 burden is heavier than 2007's even with a lower Treasury yield because the median home price has risen much faster than median household income.